Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[BiPolar Caps]

TDL is March 3rd. Caps have 11 games on the schedule till then. 6 home, 5 away. 4 games will be with teams above them in the standings (Bruins, Canes twice and the Rangers), 2 more games against competitive teams that could pass them (Sabres and Panthers) with the remaining games against the Sharks, Ducks twice, Red Wings, Blue Jackets. Not feeling it with this team and not interested in seeing changes made to only watch a first round exit if the team makes the playoffs at all.

 

[g00n]

So, what happened to those victory laps that were being run a month ago?

Pettiness aside, I really do wonder if that stretch was just a heater of a run for the team and the current play is more indicative of what they are.

We're not the ones who are on the ledge every other game. You don't win the Cup in December or lose it in November.

Get over it.

 

[Hivemind]

If I were to put money on it, I still think the Caps sneak into the playoffs. But sneaking into the playoffs doesn't do much other than get Ted 2 more games of playoff revenue while the Bruins run this team out of town. First round exits aren't enough. Barring a huge add (like Meier), they should be looking at moving out some of the UFAs they know won't be back (Eller, D that won't re-sign, etc).

 

[Brian23]

We're not the ones who are on the ledge every other game. You don't win the Cup in December or lose it in November.

Get over it.

Head in the sand, on the ledge. To-ma-toe, To-mah-toe.

 

[g00n]

Head in the sand, on the ledge. To-ma-toe, To-mah-toe.

You're right. They'll never win again.

It's all over.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

TDL is March 3rd. Caps have 11 games on the schedule till then. 6 home, 5 away. 4 games will be with teams above them in the standings (Bruins, Canes twice and the Rangers), 2 more games against competitive teams that could pass them (Sabres and Panthers) with the remaining games against the Sharks, Ducks twice, Red Wings, Blue Jackets. Not feeling it with this team and not interested in seeing changes made to only watch a first round exit if the team makes the playoffs at all.

Sooo…..you don’t even want to make the playoffs unless you’re guaranteed the 2nd round?

F that noise….although if they go down fighting and can‘t overcome an injury-plagued season, not a bad year to jump up in the draft for a better than usually positioned pick.

 

[Langway]

They need to say goodbye to Mr. Kuznetsov. He's got to be at the top of players that underwhelm. At least with 19/77 their lack of pace is partially an excuse. You know they're not going to be true top-line players. Kuz and Mantha both they'd be better without from a passion/leadership standpoint. So much of the forward ranks is uninspiring, though. They could swap out all of their pending UFAs and it still won't be a good group considering the severe limitations of the remainder of the group as-is.

I'm not sure they'll make it over BUF/PIT. They're already on the outside looking in when it comes to points percentage. BUF leads the league in goals and have youthful enthusiasm on their side. They're still scratching the surface and figuring out how good they can be. And there's also Florida closing some ground. If some or most of the bubble teams add at the deadline how should the Caps respond? Do they have the wherewithal to be aggressive? Will they force themselves into a 11th hour Forsberger?

 

[twabby]

I think rentals of any significance need to be out of the question at this point. Sure, get a 6D or whatever to supplant Irwin. But wasting significant assets in a trade for a rental doesn’t seem wise at this point because this year’s version of the team just isn’t competitive.

I’m still in favor of a guy like Timo Meier with an extension in place because he’ll factor into the inevitable retooling that will go on this offseason, but I don’t want to see them go after pure rentals.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

They need to say goodbye to Mr. Kuznetsov. He's got to be at the top of players that underwhelm. At least with 19/77 their lack of pace is partially an excuse. You know they're not going to be true top-line players. Kuz and Mantha both they'd be better without from a passion/leadership standpoint. So much of the forward ranks is uninspiring, though. They could swap out all of their pending UFAs and it still won't be a good group considering the severe limitations of the remainder of the group as-is.

I'm not sure they'll make it over BUF/PIT. They're already on the outside looking in when it comes to points percentage. BUF leads the league in goals and have youthful enthusiasm on their side. They're still scratching the surface and figuring out how good they can be. And there's also Florida closing some ground. If some or most of the bubble teams add at the deadline how should the Caps respond? Do they have the wherewithal to be aggressive? Will they force themselves into a 11th hour Forsberger?

Kuznetsov is an off season move to be made. He has a 10 team no trade list with 2 years of 7.8 remaining but there's teams that'll be interested. Whereas, I don't know if there'll be any takers for Mantha during the summer. He might be back in a Caps jersey next season.

If we could only transplant Sheary's heart in to Mantha.

 

[895]

Doesn't make sense to sell low on Kuzy to me. Let's see how well he does under a new coach.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Doesn't make sense to sell low on Kuzy to me. Let's see how well he does under a new coach.

His lack of defensive awareness or give a shit has nothing to do with the coach. Lavi has tried him on every line from 1st to 4th and the results are the same. He had questionable effort for stretches under previous coaches as well. He just doesn’t want to be great, he’s said as much himself. It’s disappointing but it is what it is. Kuzy Magic was captivating but he’s not that player anymore and he’s showing no signs of ever being that player again. He’s actually pretty solid on the PK but for whatever reason at even strength he treats the defensive zone like he’s playing in men’s league and his offensive production doesn’t come near justifying the other warts in his game.

 

[895]

His lack of defensive awareness or give a shit has nothing to do with the coach. Lavi has tried him on every line from 1st to 4th and the results are the same. He had questionable effort for stretches under previous coaches as well. He just doesn’t want to be great, he’s said as much himself. It’s disappointing but it is what it is. Kuzy Magic was captivating but he’s not that player anymore and he’s showing no signs of ever being that player again. He’s actually pretty solid on the PK but for whatever reason at even strength he treats the defensive zone like he’s playing in men’s league and his offensive production doesn’t come near justifying the other warts in his game.

It just doesn't make sense to move him for nothing. Waiting a year and seeing if his value goes up would be prudent. We're not in a rush to win anything.

 

[HTFN]

We're not the ones who are on the ledge every other game. You don't win the Cup in December or lose it in November.

Get over it.

be nicer to the straw man, please, he didn't do anything to you.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

It just doesn't make sense to move him for nothing. Waiting a year and seeing if his value goes up would be prudent. We're not in a rush to win anything.

Well they’re not moving him for nothing… they’re moving him for cap space. $7.8M can get you a very good player. Let go of Kuzy and Eller and you have $11.3M to spend on a player or players that could be net positive contributors. That’s Dylan Larkin or Timo Meier money with some left over, maybe extension money for Strome or Gustafsson. Add Mantha to that and you’re up to $17M.

And I respect where you’re coming from but Ovi will be 38 next year. I’d rather sell low on Kuznetsov and see if someone better can give them a better shot at winning rather than watch 92 continue to approach the game as if he’s playing on a Tuesday night at 10:50 in Men’s Lower B at MedStar.

To me it’s pretty simple: this is the last bite at the apple for these guys, especially the big name players. Their best players have been players like Strome, Milano, Gustafsson, Dowd, Orlov, Johansson, and Jensen (and Ovi of course). With the exception of Orlov, those guys are guys that the GM dug up off the scrap heap and they turned out to be great depth. It’s garbage that BMac has surrounded his core with guys who are actually contributing and the highest paid guys aren’t holding up their end of the bargain with Kuznetsov and Mantha at the top of that list.

 

[g00n]

be nicer to the straw man, please, he didn't do anything to you.

It's not a strawman it's hyperbole based on observed behavior, for rhetorical effect.

Some of us have always said to wait and see over the full season. Others are bobbing on the waves and shifting with the winds, often from one goal to the next.

We know November isn't how bad they really are, and that nobody can sustain the pace they set in December.

This is just common sense.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Doesn't make sense to sell low on Kuzy to me. Let's see how well he does under a new coach.

Stop with that fantasy….he’s had his chances. Last year was his best season in forever….he’s got to go this summer if not sooner.

It just doesn't make sense to move him for nothing. Waiting a year and seeing if his value goes up would be prudent. We're not in a rush to win anything.

We’ve done that before. They screwed up not shipping his ass this last summer.

You all complain about GMBM not being forward thinking…not moving him after his bounce back year is a failure.

 

[YippieKaey]

So, what happened to those victory laps that were being run a month ago?

Pettiness aside, I really do wonder if that stretch was just a heater of a run for the team and the current play is more indicative of what they are.

December gave us a good combo of savvy veteran star players, hungry young guys and some good utility players.

January has been more of an elephant graveyard. And Carlson being out has hurt us greatly.

 

[koalabear9301]

Doesn't make sense to sell low on Kuzy to me. Let's see how well he does under a new coach.

Didn't we say this when he was under Reirden?

 

[twabby]

I’ve been one of Kuznetsov’s biggest proponents but barring a Conn Smythe run or close to it I think it’s time to move on from him. The trend has been down since the Cup run, and he’s hit the floor this year.

They need to be bold this offseason if they really want another real shot at a Cup before Ovechkin retires.

 

[Peeri]

This team is not contending for Cup anytime soon. They just need to stay competitive for Ovechkin to break the record. I don't know how can someone believe this team could actual contend with their current players. Sure, if they get rid of Backstrom, Oshie, Kuznetsov, Carlson, maybe even Wilson as he holds a lot value, literally the core that one year got them over the finish line, but today is the anchor that is holding them in the place. Pipe dream. There is no other way to fix this team than just rebuild starting from top, if the target is the Stanley Cup. To stay competitive they can retool while waiting for contracts to expire.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

We're closing in on five years removed from winning the SC. These players are not frozen in time. Father time does creep up on them.

The smart move should be that the team are sellers at the TDL. BMAC should see what he can get for the UFAs (Eller, MAJO, Hathaway, Sheary and even some of the defensemen). All of these that are pending UFAs are in their low 30s and are probably envisioning their next contract as their last one. I believe just about all of them are on the down slope of their professional career at this juncture.

Look to move Kuznetsov after the season during the summer. Better chance to make that kind of transaction then.

Mantha and his contract is an albatross for the organization at this time. Don't want to see another Richard Panik transaction made where we have pay someone to take him. Ride him out, as he has one year remaining on his contract after this. Perhaps he can get moved at the 2024 TDL.

There are some UFAs that I wouldn't mind seeing returning, especially within the defensive corps.

At this stage they'll run out the career clock retiring in Capitals jerseys for Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie and Carlson.

Would like to see three or four of the current Hershey players on the Caps next season.

Time to get younger and faster.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

EA sports GM thoughts on the next 2 offseasons. Some pretty interesting FAs looming Larkin and Pasta this year Aho the next. We have lots of cap space and any one of those players would be awesome. Pasta prolly the biggest long shot bc his game is to much like Ovies.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Replying to @Langway here…

Problem is, though, you can toss the expirings and still be left with a large chunk of overpaid, declining vets whose market may be limited. How far do we expect $24M to go? Not nearly far enough I don't think. Unless the cap goes up significantly more I don't doubt this current very mid team ends up being better on paper than what they put out there next season (and not by design). It's going to take a lot more than shuffling UFAs to fix what ails them and certainly the potential is there for vast short-term regression defensively minus Orlov & Jensen potentially. (To say nothing of what they've gotten out of TVR & Gustafsson.) The only expiring contract that could prove addition by subtraction is Eller and even that dismisses his PK value. By and large the expiring UFAs aren't the issue.

Everyone has been clamoring for an infusion of youth. We should/could see Protas, Malenstyn, CMM in the lineup next year. They can choose to reinvest that $ into more fast/skilled talent if they want. That’s what we need to supplement this aging core IMO.

They should at least explore the possibility of getting an early start on restructuring at the deadline. That doesn't mean selling but they should be open to shake up trades. It won't be easy to execute but increasingly it seems like Kuz & Mantha have to go. Even then 19/77 remain obstacles re: pace improvement should they manage to move off of those other two hefty contracts. Barring a stunning sell off of Orlov & Jensen and an admission that they're not all that close it's hard to see how they manage to acquire the assets needed to restructure in a way that could promise to put them back into Cup contention. (And even selling off holds no certain promises.) They're at the stage where there aren't easy answers. Few teams are likely to act fast to take their anchors off their hands. Even if they do there's the separate issue of talent acquisition. The UFA market isn't an ideal source. Time is only going to make their issues more diffuse. Without more foresight it's only likely to get worse. A lot of what they're about is just holding on and that's an inherently regressive dynamic. Hard to expect much when that concern more or less dominates with little (if anything) seriously developing and stabilizing internally offering glimmers of hope.

Totally agree on shipping Kuzy/Mantha. That’s too much coin not delivering. If we replaced 92/39 with guys with mobility, who can contribute regularly, 19/77 should fit in just fine.

 

[Langway]

Protas & Malenstyn are marginal. They offer good size, provide energy but the bottom six is fine and neither has the arsenal to push vet top sixers. I'm not sure McMichael does either. The only convenient tact I guess is to believe there's a miracle HC out there that could finesse refreshing tactical possession tweaks to the point where offensive execution markedly improves 5v5 and on the PP. But good luck with that. More likely MacLellan will need to pick a comprehensive near-term vision, stick true to it and be prepared to make some pretty significant forward-looking changes to realign. Evaluating this season's roster based on Dom's Conference Finalist formula on an individual basis they have the bottom six, 2-6D and that's all. Hard to acquire those much more rare elements, particularly with so much money tied into declining assets, and their defensive personnel could look quite a bit different next season.

The break comes at a great time. Maybe they come back recharged and reach their minimal goal of qualifying. But their approach generally is muddled. They'll need something much more forward-looking to remain a playoff team in '23-24 you'd think. $24M in cap space in itself seems like a pretty mixed opportunity given the importance of some of their expiring contracts. They're going to need to pick and choose wisely and a big part of that will likely force them to make tougher decisions than they may like. The sheer number of decisions that will need to be made this off-season IMO is pretty far from ideal. As much as flexibility is warranted they should also have a pretty good idea in the near-term of the importance of certain pending UFAs regardless of whether they happen to be a top 8 team in the East or not.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

If I were to put money on it, I still think the Caps sneak into the playoffs. But sneaking into the playoffs doesn't do much other than get Ted 2 more games of playoff revenue while the Bruins run this team out of town. First round exits aren't enough. Barring a huge add (like Meier), they should be looking at moving out some of the UFAs they know won't be back (Eller, D that won't re-sign, etc).

Agreed.