Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Hivemind]

no

get that true 1D

win first cup

make a statement that Caps is the best team now
and sign some UFA instead of drafting Kuzy

win more cups

do whatever in 2018 having multiple cups

problem solved

You have more faith that acquiring Pronger leads to a Cup than I do.

I agree that free agent class doesnt look appealing. I didnt look at the whole league but below are the starters for the 16 playoff teams in 07-08 in no order. So the caps had pretty much close to the worst if not the worst goaltending going in. Again my point was that GMGM didnt do the things to improve the team significantly at the beginning of Ovis career. The franchise goalie didnt arrive for 6,7,8 years later? Once it was clear that Ovi was one of if not the best player in the league goaltending should have been immediately addressed via trade for whatever. How much better can then the future be then having prime Ovi. I agree with you about a lot of the other stuff you said about Mcphee building a team to last 10-15 years but thats only because he was unwilling to give up any of his prospects or picks. As far as the Oshie trade goes, I also agree that type of player is not readily available. We will never know what other players could have been available that he was unwilling to give up the assets for. It all worked out in the end with the cup win but maybe it could have been 3-1 cups for caps over Pitt if the right moves were made.

Huet
Osgood Hasek
Nabokov
Price
Fleury
Giguere
Brodeur
Backstrom
Turco
Lundqvist
Theodore
Biron
Gerber
Kirprusoff
Thomas
Ellis.

The team made the playoffs in Ovechkin's third season in the NHL (remember one year was lost to the full lockout ), and that was with GMGM acquiring Huet. We've already covered the free agent and trade candidates from the following off-season and season, and there wasn't exactly much that was available. So if we look at the years before that, there's really only one goalie that was moved that we missed out on (Tomas Vokoun traded from Nasvhille to Florida for a 1st and 2x 2nds). Using the power of hindsight we know those picks wouldn't have been in prime position, but at the time of the trade (June 2007), the Capitals were a team that had picked 4th OA (2006) and 5th OA (2007). Trading a first round pick there would have been extremely high value. Heck, even the 2008 1st rounder's value could change the fate of the franchise, depending on if its the Gustafsson pick or the Carlson pick that's traded. Would you have been willing to give up Carlson's whole career for Vokoun?

The next best goalies that were traded during Ovechkin's early years were the straight up trade of Jose Theodore for David Aebischer. The playoff teams you listed weren't going to trade away their starting goaltenders.

(As a side comment - Gerber is pretty clearly the worst one on that list - way worse than Huet or even Biron)

I agree with you that missing on Chara was the biggest what-if of Ovechkin's early career, but there are 2 things I want to quibble about. First, though I did it many moons ago, when I worked out the cap hits of the Caps in those first couple of seasons post-lockout, the sell-off that McPhee did removed basically all the large contracts on the team, so Chara's deal wouldn't have done anything to put the team in cap hell. Second, and probably way more important is that this was essentially the first full free agency period of the cap era. If the Chara opportunity comes a year or two later, or you give GMGM perfect information on how the cap was going to increase, and I think he's much more aggressive in his offers. He was hesitant because the only cap info he had was the rise from 39 to 44 from 05-06 to 06-07.

I definitely agree it wouldn't lead to an immediate salary cap hell. And if any of the GMs knew the rate at which the salary cap would grow, a lot more teams would have been hard-in on Chara (and basically every other early big free agent).

The other issue at the time was that Ovechkin was still on his ELC, expiring after the 2008 season. They had the potential for a max contract coming up to Ovie (and he signed damn near what the max was in 2008), as well as raises due for both Alex Semin and Mike Green in that same off-season.

 

[Ridley Simon]

McPhee was the one who hired Mahoney, and then convinced Ted to increase the amateur scouting budget.

And? There must be a larger point beyond this

 

[Ridley Simon]

This was when the cap was 46m. So 7.5m for Chara was considered insane at the time. At the time most people considered Redden the guy who made the pairing tick, which is why Ottawa kept him over Chara. Chara also demanded the captaincy.

“At the time” people were idiots. LOL

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Laviolette has to absolutely be fired. These lines and man-management are criminal.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I agree with you that missing on Chara was the biggest what-if of Ovechkin's early career, but there are 2 things I want to quibble about. First, though I did it many moons ago, when I worked out the cap hits of the Caps in those first couple of seasons post-lockout, the sell-off that McPhee did removed basically all the large contracts on the team, so Chara's deal wouldn't have done anything to put the team in cap hell. Second, and probably way more important is that this was essentially the first full free agency period of the cap era. If the Chara opportunity comes a year or two later, or you give GMGM perfect information on how the cap was going to increase, and I think he's much more aggressive in his offers. He was hesitant because the only cap info he had was the rise from 39 to 44 from 05-06 to 06-07.

George was “hesitant” because he was always “hesitant”. You don’t need a reason for it, it’s who the man was, in DC … well, until the unspoken trade he made on his way out.

This was his downfall (being hesitant all these years, NOT Erat)

 

[twabby]

Odds of Mantha being moved in a trade seem to be increasing every day.

 

[Hivemind]

You could put those forward lines in any order and it would seem equally believable. Even Ovechkin's is balanced out by the presence of NAK.

 

[marcel snapshot]

I would think Mantha would be of interest to any of the following: LA, Calgary, Edmonton, and Colorado

 

[Hivemind]

Will be pretty annoyed if Mantha ends up being the third forward in three seasons to get traded because Lavi refuses to utilize them in offensive situations.

 

[Langway]

Sheary has one goal in 15 games. Teacher's pet and all but it's quite a dry spell (and I can't say he's been super noticeable either). Now that Wilson is back Sheary should rightfully be slotted lower in the lineup. Ideally he responds by bringing a more concentrated energy game (and produces against softer match-ups).

Mantha is a lot less defensible benching compared to Vrana/Sprong given how well-rounded he is. I get the frustration, the lack of compete at times and missed chances, but getting the chances and the underlying play isn't worthless. It would seem that he's very likely headed out but hard to figure they should feel adequately stocked on the wings without him. Upgrading the D makes sense but if it's a TVR type alone that would be a fairly underwhelming deadline.

I mean, their goal leaders after Ovechkin are Sheary, Johansson & Dowd. Big yikes. They could conceivably only have one 20-goal scorer.

 

[Vilica]

I definitely agree it wouldn't lead to an immediate salary cap hell. And if any of the GMs knew the rate at which the salary cap would grow, a lot more teams would have been hard-in on Chara (and basically every other early big free agent).

The other issue at the time was that Ovechkin was still on his ELC, expiring after the 2008 season. They had the potential for a max contract coming up to Ovie (and he signed damn near what the max was in 2008), as well as raises due for both Alex Semin and Mike Green in that same off-season.

Ya that wild west when the cap was going up and up every year would make almost every FA deal a bargain. Again I think the fact that this was the first set of contracts negotiated under the cap worked against GMGM - give him knowledge how other teams handled long term contracts (and what bridge/RFA deals looked like) and I think he'd have done a greater job maximizing both the early and medium term windows.

Also I found the spreadsheet I used to figure out the early cap hits for the team, and it looks like I did 06-07 and 07-08, but lost steam in 08-09 by not completing it. I located a Capgeek webpage that outlines 08-09 here: CapGeek.com - NHL salary cap calculator, buyout calculator, free agents and more!, and here's the partial spreadsheet for those 3 seasons. Obviously Fedorov and Huet need to be prorated for 07-08, but even at their full salaries Washington was still way under the cap. I think I did a proration for 06-07 in a different column, and that 36 million gets divided into 24.5m for full time players and 6.15m for call-ups, 14 million under the cap. With the knowledge that the cap would be 56.7m in 08-09, the first year of Ovechkin/Semin/Green extensions, that's a crapton of cap space.

Edit: Btw I'm not posting this sheet as proof of anything, I just wanted to utilize the opportunity to remember some guys. The ghosts of Capitals past.

 

[Hivemind]

The Nylander contract. What a pumpkin that was. He seemed like an ideal fit to mentor Backstrom and carry one of their top six scoring lines, but alas. Glad that was still when teams were allowed to bury guys full contracts in the minors/Europe.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This was when the cap was 46m. So 7.5m for Chara was considered insane at the time. At the time most people considered Redden the guy who made the pairing tick, which is why Ottawa kept him over Chara. Chara also demanded the captaincy.

Wow how wrong they were…..Redden was one of the worst contracts in the league for a bit….

 

[RedRocking]

You could put those forward lines in any order and it would seem equally believable. Even Ovechkin's is balanced out by the presence of NAK.

I actually like NAK for this team - though maybe not necessarily top line. But he’s got wheels, a high motor, and battles for pucks. Helps compensate for some of the slower guys, and has shown a pretty decent ability to finish. As long as he stays out of the box, he’s a net positive, and pretty noticeable most games he’s played.

Last game all I could think watching him flying around, being physical - this is so much better than the corpse of Mantha floating around aimlessly. And I kinda like Mantha!

 

[Misery74]

NAK on the top line is just absurd.

At what point does Mantha publicly demand a trade, and make this really ugly.

 

[g00n]

NAK on the top line is just absurd.

At what point does Mantha publicly demand a trade, and make this really ugly.

Why would he ask for a trade? Yearning to get out there on the ice and really kick ass?

He can crank up the loafing to 10 now.

(edited for spellink)

 

[Misery74]

Why would we ask for a trade? Yearning to get out there on the ice and really kick ass?

He can crank up the loafing to 10 now.

These things usually end with a trade demand, but I suppose we’ll see.

 

[um]

You have more faith that acquiring Pronger leads to a Cup than I do.

Obviously nothing is certain but I’d think having the 2nd best Dman in the game and an all time playoff performer in Pronger changes a whole lot.

He’s done a lot with lesser teams than the Caps.

At the very least it was a shot worth taking, as was Chara.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Dumba for Mantha. Who says no first?

 

[um]

Why would we ask for a trade? Yearning to get out there on the ice and really kick ass?

He can crank up the loafing to 10 now.

What do you mean by we ask for a trade?

I’m genuinely asking.

 

[g00n]

These things usually end with a trade demand, but I suppose we’ll see.

I was being silly but yes, that will probably happen if this continues, only because it makes him look underutilized and mistreated rather than benched.

Then again if he comes off as a wantaway it may hurt his value.

What do you mean by we ask for a trade?

I’m genuinely asking.

Typo. Should've been "he"

 

[um]

Odds of Mantha being moved in a trade seem to be increasing every day.

Just when Lavy puts Strome back with Ovie, he starts putting 4th liners on the 1st line, Dale Hunter style.

Lavy giveth and taketh away.

 

[um]

Ya that wild west when the cap was going up and up every year would make almost every FA deal a bargain. Again I think the fact that this was the first set of contracts negotiated under the cap worked against GMGM - give him knowledge how other teams handled long term contracts (and what bridge/RFA deals looked like) and I think he'd have done a greater job maximizing both the early and medium term windows.

Also I found the spreadsheet I used to figure out the early cap hits for the team, and it looks like I did 06-07 and 07-08, but lost steam in 08-09 by not completing it. I located a Capgeek webpage that outlines 08-09 here: CapGeek.com - NHL salary cap calculator, buyout calculator, free agents and more!, and here's the partial spreadsheet for those 3 seasons. Obviously Fedorov and Huet need to be prorated for 07-08, but even at their full salaries Washington was still way under the cap. I think I did a proration for 06-07 in a different column, and that 36 million gets divided into 24.5m for full time players and 6.15m for call-ups, 14 million under the cap. With the knowledge that the cap would be 56.7m in 08-09, the first year of Ovechkin/Semin/Green extensions, that's a crapton of cap space.

View attachment 637868

Edit: Btw I'm not posting this sheet as proof of anything, I just wanted to utilize the opportunity to remember some guys. The ghosts of Capitals past.

Young Ovie, Backstrom, Semin, and Green was a nasty nasty core... we just needed a 1D to take defensive responsibility from Green. Sort of like Niskanen did to Carlson.

We needed those aggressive Orpik and Niskanen moves 10 years before they happened.

Such a shame.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Is NAK like a poor man’s Chris Clark?

When do we think Mantha gets traded? The longer he sits the less value he has I would think.

 

[hockeykicker]

“He has that speed, that talent, that ability to create, because of his talent and his brain,” Roenick says. “I can’t say the same thing about Ovechkin. Would Ovechkin be where he is today if he didn’t play with (Nicklas Backstrom) his whole career? Probably not. He’s the best goal scorer I’ve ever seen, but when I look at someone as multi-dimensionally dangerous as Stamkos, he makes other players better around him.”