Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Peeri]

Like it or not, the only way this Capitals team makes deep in the playoffs is by having guys like Kuznetsov perform at their peak levels. Sorry but guys like Eller or Strome just don't cut it. I would be much more worried about 25%~ of our cap hit tied to guys like Backstrom, Wilson and Oshie and really pray to god they perform when the time comes.

 

[twabby]

Give Elias Pettersson a look again, I dunno. Vancouver is a mess and they need D. Maybe Rutherford will do something stupid and do Carlson+Fehervary for Pettersson. Unlikely he'd do something that stupid I guess, but maybe!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Like it or not, the only way this Capitals team makes deep in the playoffs is by having guys like Kuznetsov perform at their peak levels. Sorry but guys like Eller or Strome just don't cut it. I would be much more worried about 25%~ of our cap hit tied to guys like Backstrom, Wilson and Oshie and really pray to god they perform when the time comes.

Yep, so we’re F’ed……probably.….but I’ve accepted our punchers chance status long ago.

Give Elias Pettersson a look again, I dunno. Vancouver is a mess and they need D. Maybe Rutherford will do something stupid and do Carlson+Fehervary for Pettersson. Unlikely he'd do something that stupid I guess, but maybe!

I give it a look this summer sure, but even Rutherford isn’t that dumb. Carlson is damaged goods for now.

 

[Misery74]

If you trade multiple picks, and Vrana for a guy that has to be healthy scratched, as a GM, you have made a terrible mistake.

Either play him or trade him. Don’t cut off your nose to spite your face.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Well, the GM doesn’t play the players. Lavi sent him a message. Let’s see what happens next.

Sit Eller or Kuz for a game.

 

[twabby]

Dylan Larkin not reaching an agreement with Detroit is their likely best opportunity at a true 1C. He’d cost a lot of money but who cares?

 

[Cappy76]

Eller Eller Eller…like a dog with a bone…


Forget $8 mil a year Kuzy sucking ass too much when you can focus on a lesser player who makes less money and less impact.

I get it however, kuzy sucking ass isn’t completely putting the line up in disarray to fit him on the roster. Eller at this point is and it’s a lot easier to dump his contract than Kuzys.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I get it however, kuzy sucking ass isn’t completely putting the line up in disarray to fit him on the roster. Eller at this point is and it’s a lot easier to dump his contract than Kuzys.

The roster isn’t getting upheaved because of Eller….someone else already wrote up how integrating Wilson and Backstrom into different lines and also having Ovy needing his own types of line-mates necessitates this.

 

[Jags]

I can’t help but roll my eyes about cries of accountability and equality for all when this guy mentally loafs his way through season after season is all…..anyway…..next game up!

I totally agree with this. Kuznetsov has been maddening this year. But I'm not sure conflating our struggles with one guy with our struggles with another really works in this case.

When Mantha was benched, a byproduct was playing a key player out of position. We made two (hopeful) upgrades in 43 and 19, but simultaneously made two downgrades (17 to wing, 39 to the bleachers) AND shuffled the hell out of working lines to make it fit. But if Eller was the guy scratched or moved to 4LW, none of that would have been necessary.

And when that proved to be a disaster, we shuffled it up again. Our best centers were all back at center, but we had a guy who shouldn't be playing wing at all playing wing on our second line, which is bananas, and the lines were still shuffled. Again, all this to accommodate one guy being on the ice when the numbers and eye test say he shouldn't be.

Now you're 100% right that Kuznetsov has been causing similar problems, but he kinda does it in a vacuum because he plays in the same spot regardless. There isn't a domino effect on the rest of the lineup when he plays like shit, or the coach reaches to keep him around. But f*** yes, 92 absolutely brings his line down when he's off. No question. I wanted him traded last year, too. Let him play bipolar hockey somewhere else, and I don't care if we "lose" the trade.

Eller being the root cause of Lavi playing Lineup Bingo and Kuzy just plain playing like shit are both true at the same time. But in a world where we can't really sit both of them, Eller is the square peg on a team full of round holes. If there's a solid, in-season solution to the Kuznetsov problem, I'm 100% on board. Let's do it. But the solution to the Eller issue is super easy.

On the ice, we can shelter Kuzy by getting him the hell off of PP1, giving him defensively responsible north/south linemates at evens (Wilson, Mantha), and double-shifting other centers if it comes to that. Use Eller to sit him if you get to that Mantha point with him.

And not for nothing, but this exact problem is why a more forward-thinking coach or GM would have used the Eller spot to evaluate and develop prospects this year.

 

[RedRocking]

Like it or not, the only way this Capitals team makes deep in the playoffs is by having guys like Kuznetsov perform at their peak levels. Sorry but guys like Eller or Strome just don't cut it. I would be much more worried about 25%~ of our cap hit tied to guys like Backstrom, Wilson and Oshie and really pray to god they perform when the time comes.

Ah yes, the “Kuznetsov Paradox”, a long lost episode of Star Trek.

We need the guy to win anything meaningful, yet he kills our chances of winning on many nights.

Bizarre how in the playoffs, on an odd man break, he either scores or makes the right pass. A gamer, with total ice in his veins.

But, during the regular season he spends most games complaining to the refs, and looking completely frazzled and indecisive.

Did you all see last night, late down 1 - that laser of a pass from Ovi, and Kuzy had a third of the net open, goalie off balance. And he just sorta skated towards the net, and lost the puck before shooting. Sigh.

The thing is, earlier this season his effort wasn’t there - but now, he is skating hard and seems to be trying out there. But effort can’t make up for a lack of hockey IQ, and poise.

But alas, we are stuck with him - the wrath of the “Kuznetsov Paradox” will not be denied.

 

[g00n]

Ah yes, the “Kuznetsov Paradox”, a long lost episode of Star Trek.

We need the guy to win anything meaningful, yet he kills our chances of winning on many nights.

Bizarre how in the playoffs, on an odd man break, he either scores or makes the right pass. A gamer, with total ice in his veins.

But, during the regular season he spends most games complaining to the refs, and looking completely frazzled and indecisive.

Did you all see last night, late down 1 - that laser of a pass from Ovi, and Kuzy had a third of the net open, goalie off balance. And he just sorta skated towards the net, and lost the puck before shooting. Sigh.

The thing is, earlier this season his effort wasn’t there - but now, he is skating hard and seems to be trying out there. But effort can’t make up for a lack of hockey IQ, and poise.

So alas, we are stuck with him - the wrath of the “Kuznetsov Paradox” will not be denied.

Kuznetsov Maru?

 

[Jags]

Kuznetsov Maru?

The answer is that there is no answer. It does kinda feel that way sometimes, right?

 

[Drakon]

Yes. Mantha himself stated that his lack of effort was the reason.

That literally has nothing to do with what you said. He also said the offense was fine,it was the other areas. So not "hanging out in front of the net". You're really reaching.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I totally agree with this. Kuznetsov has been maddening this year. But I'm not sure conflating our struggles with one guy with our struggles with another really works in this case.

When Mantha was benched, a byproduct was playing a key player out of position. We made two (hopeful) upgrades in 43 and 19, but simultaneously made two downgrades (17 to wing, 39 to the bleachers) AND shuffled the hell out of working lines to make it fit. But if Eller was the guy scratched or moved to 4LW, none of that would have been necessary.

And when that proved to be a disaster, we shuffled it up again. Our best centers were all back at center, but we had a guy who shouldn't be playing wing at all playing wing on our second line, which is bananas, and the lines were still shuffled. Again, all this to accommodate one guy being on the ice when the numbers and eye test say he shouldn't be.

Now you're 100% right that Kuznetsov has been causing similar problems, but he kinda does it in a vacuum because he plays in the same spot regardless. There isn't a domino effect on the rest of the lineup when he plays like shit, or the coach reaches to keep him around. But f*** yes, 92 absolutely brings his line down when he's off. No question. I wanted him traded last year, too. Let him play bipolar hockey somewhere else, and I don't care if we "lose" the trade.

Eller being the root cause of Lavi playing Lineup Bingo and Kuzy just plain playing like shit are both true at the same time. But in a world where we can't really sit both of them, Eller is the square peg on a team full of round holes. If there's a solid, in-season solution to the Kuznetsov problem, I'm 100% on board. Let's do it. But the solution to the Eller issue is super easy.

On the ice, we can shelter Kuzy by getting him the hell off of PP1, giving him defensively responsible north/south linemates at evens (Wilson, Mantha), and double-shifting other centers if it comes to that. Use Eller to sit him if you get to that Mantha point with him.

And not for nothing, but this exact problem is why a more forward-thinking coach or GM would have used the Eller spot to evaluate and develop prospects this year.

Wouldn’t a more forward thinking GM have traded Kuzy after a bounce back season last year? Now we look to be on a down season for again so far….but he can turn it around still.

We don’t make a playoff run without his best, so why keep entertaining the fantasy is what bugs me.

You dont need to keep pumping an off-season Eller trade that never happend. I was vocally on board with moving him, but also get why they didn’t.

 

[YippieKaey]

That literally has nothing to do with what you said. He also said the offense was fine,it was the other areas. So not "hanging out in front of the net". You're really reaching.

Ok dude. That's alright.

 

[Portable Mink]

I had a feeling we might struggle when the boys got back.
I have not really liked the lines used a great deal.
I really want to see this:

Ovechkin - Strome - Sheary
Mantha - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Milano - Backstrom - Oshie
Mojo - Dowd - Hathaway

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Put Strome Sheary and Ovi back together. They were working well. I’m baffled why Lavi likes to f*c* with things that are working.

 

[Hivemind]

I understand fiddling with things a bit, even when stuff is working. At a certain point before the playoffs you need to know what your Plan B and Plan C combinations could be should someone get hurt or a particular line go cold. But I don't know if the moment you do that is when the team is at it's hottest, and especially when the team is still barely in a playoff position despite being at their hottest. They don't have the same margin for error that they had a few years ago. They aren't guaranteed to contend for the division with a comfortable playoff spot.

Further still, some of these changes feel more like Lavi playing favorites and throwing stuff at the wall than line-ups they'd seriously consider running in the playoffs. Top line Milano makes sense to try out and see if it works, but 2LW Lars Eller? 4LW Mantha (prior to the healthy scratches)? Heck, even if you consider moving Strome to the wing to fit all the centers in, why would you pair him with another pass-first playmaker like Backstrom or Kuznetsov?

 

[HTFN]

I understand fiddling with things a bit, even when stuff is working. At a certain point before the playoffs you need to know what your Plan B and Plan C combinations could be should someone get hurt or a particular line go cold. But I don't know if the moment you do that is when the team is at it's hottest, and especially when the team is still barely in a playoff position despite being at their hottest. They don't have the same margin for error that they had a few years ago. They aren't guaranteed to contend for the division with a comfortable playoff spot.

Further still, some of these changes feel more like Lavi playing favorites and throwing stuff at the wall than line-ups they'd seriously consider running in the playoffs. Top line Milano makes sense to try out and see if it works, but 2LW Lars Eller? 4LW Mantha (prior to the healthy scratches)? Heck, even if you consider moving Strome to the wing to fit all the centers in, why would you pair him with another pass-first playmaker like Backstrom or Kuznetsov?

I agree with your premise here but I also think it runs very counter to the way Laviolette has approached things in the past. If we know/have reason to believe that this lineup is suboptimal and less likely to win points for the team (which isn’t a place to slowly bring players along) what makes this so substantially different?

It’s the distribution of the two separate attitudes that leaves me constantly at a loss with him, because his approach with Backstrom and Wilson has definitely not been “they’re earning their minutes and winning games, go show me you can take some”

 

[Kuz]

I just dont see why Laviolette are breaking up Ovi-Strome-Sheary. The line had chemistry and the team has looked much worse the last few games. Give Backstrom the third line center job and play him 16-18 min (A llitle more than Eller did as Backstrom will get more PP time).

Caps have good depth now and a creative player like Backstrom with some scoring wingers like Mantha and Oshie on the third line they can take advantage. Then you have Kuznetsov with Wilson and Milano as a pure offensive line. Caps cant outgun another teams top line any longer, but they can put up 3 solid lines where all can score.

 

[tycoonheart]

Back on the fire Lavi bandwagon for me!

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Latest playoff projections.

Dom from The Athletic, typically very bearish on the Caps, has them with a 78% chance to make the playoffs and finishing 4th in the Metro and WC1 (which would have them facing Carolina in R1). Dom’s model is really high on the Pens and not so much on the Isles or Rangers. Caps have the 7th best Cup odds in this model.

MoneyPuck has the Caps with an 85% chance to make the playoffs. MoneyPuck likes the Rangers more than Dom’s model and is pretty down on the Pens. Also very bearish on the Isles.

 

[twabby]

Latest playoff projections.

Dom from The Athletic, typically very bearish on the Caps, has them with a 78% chance to make the playoffs and finishing 4th in the Metro and WC1 (which would have them facing Carolina in R1). Dom’s model is really high on the Pens and not so much on the Isles or Rangers. Caps have the 7th best Cup odds in this model.

View attachment 634627

MoneyPuck has the Caps with an 85% chance to make the playoffs. MoneyPuck likes the Rangers more than Dom’s model and is pretty down on the Pens. Also very bearish on the Isles.

View attachment 634628

Washington was arguably playing like the second best team in the Metro before the last few games, behind only Carolina. Despite my optimism in New Jersey they really have come crashing back down to Earth both from a results and process standpoint. I don't believe in either NYR or NYI other than them having goaltenders that can get hot and steal a series or two. Pittsburgh's defense is kind of a mess and their depth forwards aren't any good. They still play a good system and they still have Crosby and Malkin, but they are severely lacking in many spots on their roster.

As I mentioned in an earlier post it's imperative that Washington right the ship and finish in a top 3 spot in the Metro. Avoiding Carolina and Boston in the first round is pretty important. Washington can (should?) beat any of PIT/NYR/NJ/NYI as of now.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Back on the fire Lavi bandwagon for me!

Come on you never left the train, you just hid among the livestock!

 

[twabby]

Healthy-scratching Oshie would be unexpected, so I somewhat doubt that this is true.

Scratching Mantha for a third game after two clunkers by the rest of the team would be a travesty.