Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[YippieKaey]

I don't mind Bäckström as 3C and PP1. He's great defensively and can spark some secondary scoring whilst shaking the rust off. If he outplays 3C then move him up, if not no problem. Could see him shooting nice breakout passes to a rushing Milano whilst Oshie cleans up rebounds etc.

this is interesting. I’m encouraged by Manthas response. he knows what he needs to do. We heard very similar from Milano when he got signed and sent to Hershey. That he know what he needed to do and was going to do it. Look at Milano now.

I don’t suspect we’ll see Mantha in the lineup until the Caps lose a game or someone gets hurt. But suspect we’ll see a different Mantha when he gets the chance. having a deep lineup is going to be healthy!

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Good that he's realizing and saying the right things. If he starts working his ass off every game we have a less physical more skilled Tom Wilson. If he doesn't, we have 5.7 mil in cap space.

 

[HTFN]

I agree with the need to use him more appropriately. I was a huge fan of the trade when it happened, and a big believer in Mantha. Big. I also think they’ve played him on his off-side wing for far too long.

I’d personally like to see him play w MaJo and Backstrom.

It's my belief overall that when you get a guy from a struggling franchise that has been asked to produce over his career, one of the best ways to get production out of him is to get him on second-ish line deployments and playing exactly his game... just in a semi-sheltered role that lets him play against second and third pairing D instead of getting force-fed first pair matchups.

Theoretically that's now him playing on an "easier difficulty" and giving you a lot of options to carry even strength play, but right now it's like they've been trying to jam him into a bunch of other holes and now given up when he can't just suddenly be a guy who plays like his size. Seems especially true when reading that his even strength/underlying numbers have never really been too bad for a given stretch.

 

[HTFN]

Side note, I'll also weigh in and say I don't read a lot into the lines right now either. There are things I would change if I had my say but as far as the return game for Backstrom and Wilson I think the lines were almost as much about being able to announce them in the locker room before the game as they were anything else. That was an emotional play more than a logical one and I'm willing to hold off a bit before I say I'm sure that they're more determined to stick to what they feel they should be doing than what works.

Second side note (and kind of to the contrary) this idea that Backstrom can't be on the third line because they're paying him too much for that is goofy. They signed the contracts, that's in the past. Now the goal is to play them where they succeed. We've all been in agreement for a long time that part of Backstrom's contract is basically backpay for producing for a long time on a sweetheart deal, and the idea that he needs to do more (or even as much, really) to justify his cap hit is counter to the entire point of the contract.

I've said this for a long time and it's become no less true: if you want to treat your franchise players right and also remain competitive you can't keep looking at them as individuals, and you have to start making statistics in the aggregate (it's basically a Moneyball). You want to pay Backstrom for what he's done and Ovechkin for what he's somehow doing against all odds, that's honorable and worthwhile. To keep winning, though, you have to almost accidentally find them as second/third line players just because other shit is going down. Ovechkin is defying that trend and good for him, but with Backstrom and his injuries it seems much more predictable that outside of this reuniting of a long standing duo, the right move is to let him play in the shelter of people who have been doing just fine and let him ride that "secret weapon" slot when veteran savvy really matters.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I like Mantha. I can’t argue with his underlying metrics. My only negative is he doesn’t pass my eye test which apparently sucks given the metrics but he looks to be going through the motions a lot IMHO.

 

[EHCler]

Question ist what is the market for Mantha, given the forward depth he is surplas to requirements at the moment. Swap for a 2nd pairing Defensman would be nice.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We could put Mantha Backstrom and Oshie on a line and not really miss a beat.
OV-DS-Sheary
Sonny-Kuz-Willy
Mantha/Mojo-Backy-Oshie
Eller-Dowd-Hathaway

That 3rd line should eat up bottom D pairings

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Maybe the answer with Mantha is he’s just a terrific third line player. He’s probably a bit overpaid for that role but it’s hard to argue with the results. Pretty much every player on the team sees better results with Mantha on the ice and team defense is really solid when he’s on the ice. He’s also one of their best offensive producers at even strength. I think there’s no objective argument to show that he isn’t one of their top 12 forwards and in my opinion he should be playing every night, certainly over Eller or Johansson. This team is worse without Mantha in the lineup and they’re worse without Strome at center, so those two things should not be in question when it comes to setting the lineup.

The only forward spot that should be a competition is 4LW and to me Eller is the odd man out. I think the Eller hate is a bit overblown but he’s not one of their four best centers so that puts him in a tough spot. I’d rotate Eller and Johansson at 4LW to see who is the best fit. Maybe Eller gets the nod because he can provide insurance in a game in case a center gets hurt but it’s hard to take MoJo out of the lineup since he’s been playing well. I also think NAK should be in competition with Hathaway because he’s actually been quite good aside from the penalties.

Ovi-Strome-Sheary
Milano-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Mantha-Backstrom-Oshie
Johansson/Eller-Dowd-Hathaway/NAK

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

These are some lines.

 

[twabby]

Those lines are an improvement, though I still don’t get why they are opposed to Ovechkin/Strome as a duo. Also I’d flip the second and thirds lines but in terms of TOI they’ll be close either way.

Glad they’re at least putting their best 4 centers at center.

 

[pman25]

Strome back to center is a start and Eller to wing as well…but seems another jumbled mess

 

[Hivemind]

These are some lines.

Pleased to see Strome back at center, but Eller at 2LW over Sheary, Johansson, and Wilson speaks volumes about how Laviolette perceives Eller compared to the rest of the team.

No idea what Lavi has against re-uniting the 8-17-73 line, either.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Excited to see if Strome can succeed at 3C. At least he’s got good active wingers. That 2nd line LW choice I don’t get at all.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

///

Second side note (and kind of to the contrary) this idea that Backstrom can't be on the third line because they're paying him too much for that is goofy. They signed the contracts, that's in the past. Now the goal is to play them where they succeed. We've all been in agreement for a long time that part of Backstrom's contract is basically backpay for producing for a long time on a sweetheart deal, and the idea that he needs to do more (or even as much, really) to justify his cap hit is counter to the entire point of the contract.

I've said this for a long time and it's become no less true: if you want to treat your franchise players right and also remain competitive you can't keep looking at them as individuals, and you have to start making statistics in the aggregate (it's basically a Moneyball). You want to pay Backstrom for what he's done and Ovechkin for what he's somehow doing against all odds, that's honorable and worthwhile. To keep winning, though, you have to almost accidentally find them as second/third line players just because other shit is going down. Ovechkin is defying that trend and good for him, but with Backstrom and his injuries it seems much more predictable that outside of this reuniting of a long standing duo, the right move is to let him play in the shelter of people who have been doing just fine and let him ride that "secret weapon" slot when veteran savvy really matters.

iirc, were there not multiple posters who were blasting the Caps for using ~$5m aav Brooks Orpik in a 3rd pairing role during their Cup season? That didn't work out too bad, did it?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

iirc, were there not multiple posters who were blasting the Caps for using ~$5m aav Brooks Orpik in a 3rd pairing role during their Cup season? That didn't work out too bad, did it?

Nobody wise that’s for sure!

 

[kicksavedave]

iirc, were there not multiple posters who were blasting the Caps for using ~$5m aav Brooks Orpik in a 3rd pairing role during their Cup season? That didn't work out too bad, did it?

Nobody wise that’s for sure!

Different sport, but the Redskins used to consistently compete for SB's when they were able to pay backups like starters, they often had the best depth in the league, and when a starter went down they didn't miss a beat.

Its not how one would ideally construct an NHL roster, but there are going to be times when a cheaper player deserves the higher assignment than the expensive player, and that doesn't mean they can't win like that. Its not a long term solution anyway, Backie only has 2 more years on his deal after this one, correct? Strome may not resign here either. eller is a FA after this year as well, yes?

For now, its all fine.

 

[kicksavedave]

Also, depending on how Nicky actually comes back when he's back up to whatever his new full speed is, we may have the best center lineup from 1-5 in the league. Sure there are other better #1Cs than ours, but from 1-5 no one should match up up the middle.

Really hoping Nicky contributes this year, instead of being an anchor dragging the boys down. Still TBD.

 

[Langway]

Doesn't seem too tenable juggling like that.

 

[max21]

Provorov?

 

[g00n]

iirc, were there not multiple posters who were blasting the Caps for using ~$5m aav Brooks Orpik in a 3rd pairing role during their Cup season? That didn't work out too bad, did it?

I think Trotz shuffled the lines quite a bit that season and it paid off when the "next man up" ethos was needed in the playoffs.

 

[kicksavedave]

Doesn't seem too tenable juggling like that.

Seems a LOT more manageable that throwing AHL talent in there who really don't help the team when they get their chance. I'm not sure I've ever seen a scenario where too much depth is a bad thing. We'll need it all at some point this year.

 

[Brian23]

If I think of that 2nd line as a 3rd line, it doesn't bother me much. But it'll get primo deployments and that will bug me.

 

[Calicaps]

Seems a LOT more manageable that throwing AHL talent in there who really don't help the team when they get their chance. I'm not sure I've ever seen a scenario where too much depth is a bad thing. We'll need it all at some point this year.

This. It's a high-class problem to have too many good players. Between now and the TDL, the tweeners (including Mantha at this point) will have plenty of chances of to stake their claims and convince the coaches they belong in the full-time lineup. And when the dust settles, we'll hopefully have not only best possible lineup from the current roster, but also great depth and assets.

 

[Raikkonen]

if they think they can manage Mantha and yield results, they should keep him at least until the summer

or at least until they get the offer they cant resist at deadline

Eller on the other hand is looking like trending in the wrong direction entirely. too many mistakes, older now, no spots for him in the future if Backstrom is healthy

Dowd really became better defending option than Eller and he's right handed also

couple wingers who can do what Eller does too

so to me that sticks out.. like a trade candidate

Milano to RW decision is buffling

Id expect Milano-Kuzy-Wilson would do damage... now two of them are a bit doomed to do hard work for Ovi

maybe Lavi thinks he can get back to 8-17-73 at any moment and tries to find more working combinations, why not

 

[um]

These are some lines.

I'm still confused as to what Strome did to be taken away from Ovie.

The line was very successful, they weren't even slumping.

 

[Jags]

I guess those lines are better than what we had, but a guy that shouldn't be playing wing at all at 2W is a shock. Not sure this is the best way to get Nick going, but at least we got the centers sorted out.

Why does this have to be a "back to the drawing board" kind of thing? 3 lines were working great. We could have just dropped our two returnees on the 3rd and not upset anything. That team was winning its ass off.

If it's anything like "The illustrious Nicklas Backstrom can't possibly play on a third line!" then put him on the 3rd line and call it the 2nd line. The minutes, deployments, and wing talent are pretty much the same.

Just seems like it could have been easier, but now Laviolette is looking at his line sheet like it's written in Sanskrit, impossible to decipher...