Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 2: Regular Season

[Boss Man Hughes]

Agreed. I have to say though if Protas doesn’t make the roster than their whole “you have to earn it” spiel about making the team will become laughable. The dude has played his ass off and deserves to be on the roster.

He is still a mediocre player. Only an incompetent coach would play Protas over McMichael.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[twabby]

Hopefully nothing serious because otherwise the left side of the blue line looks pretty rough!

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

CMM wasn’t ready last year. It’s not like an EA game where guys can be judged on their overall rating - his possession might have been good but his finishing wasn’t, he needs to become faster, and he needs to be more consistent.

I’d rather he work out those kinks playing 20 mins a game in Hershey than 8 minutes a game in Washington, and sadly it doesn’t feel like he’s going to get much more than that still. He also should be playing at center, not wing.

Send CMM down for quality minutes, and rotate Protas and Snively (if he’s looked good) at 3/4LW.

Assuming Wilson is back during the year and Backstrom doesn’t return until nearer the playoffs, CMM I likely to get squeezed out anyway. Better to get him AHL reps while he can, no?

saying he wasnt ready last year is an insane statement that only makes sense if you only are looking at box scores, his underlying metrics were actually elite and his speed is a tool hardly any player on this team can match

 

[um]

Orlov and Oshie injuries, this season is starting to look like last year.

Bring on the younglings!

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Follow the quote-chain back and you'll see the context here. It was in response to an incredibly shallow evaluation that only used height/weight for "size" and made completely arbitrary evaluations of size and speed for CMM. I wasn't intending to compare CMM to Crosby, I was pointing out how that shallow of an evaluation is absurd.

there is no evaluation its just looking at raw point totals, height, weight and age. its insane that people want to keep failing to adapt to the modern nhl by letting young talents play and develop and instead play old, tired players that have a limited ceiling. the eye test is so unbelievably flawed and this is really puts it on display.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

saying he wasnt ready last year is an insane statement that only makes sense if you only are looking at box scores, his underlying metrics were actually elite and his speed is a tool hardly any player on this team can match

he wasn’t…..and he wasn’t even near the fastest skaters last season.

basing player “nhl readiness“ on some select fancy stats is insane also IMO.


The good news, he looks stronger and more ready based on what I saw last night.

there is no evaluation its just looking at raw point totals, height, weight and age. its insane that people want to keep failing to adapt to the modern nhl by letting young talents play and develop and instead play old, tired players that have a limited ceiling. the eye test is so unbelievably flawed and this is really puts it on display.

Nope….wrong….adapting is using all data, eye test and analytics.


Can‘t run a sports team with a spreadsheet.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

he wasn’t…..and he wasn’t even near the fastest skaters last season.

basing player “nhl readiness“ on some select fancy stats is insane also IMO.


The good news, he looks stronger and more ready based on what I saw last night.


Nope….wrong….adapting is using all data, eye test and analytics.


Can‘t run a sports team with a spreadsheet.

he was literally top 20 among all nhl forwards in xgpm last season, thats 100% NHL ready and already very effective. I'm not saying you only need to look a spreadsheet but xG is a very solid stat and since the 07-08 season (when xG tracking began) 10/15 cup winners have been top 10 in the league in xG. When the penguins went back to back they were 1st in 16 and 5th in 17, tampa was 3rd in 19 and 9th in 20. The arguments against mcmichael are so extremely arbitrary that people want an explosive young prospect to play like a 4th line grinder, utterly insane.

 

[trick9]

I hope Oshie isn't hurt long-term. It would be a huge blow to our Playoff chances with Wilson already out.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

he was literally top 20 among all nhl forwards in xgpm last season, thats 100% NHL ready and already very effective. I'm not saying you only need to look a spreadsheet but xG is a very solid stat and since the 07-08 season (when xG tracking began) 10/15 cup winners have been top 10 in the league in xG. When the penguins went back to back they were 1st in 16 and 5th in 17, tampa was 3rd in 19 and 9th in 20. The arguments against mcmichael are so extremely arbitrary that people want an explosive young prospect to play like a 4th line grinder, utterly insane.

And? A few hand picked fancy stats don’t speak to an individual’s readiness to shoulder a full load at this level.

Nobody wants him to play like a 4th line grinder. That’s F’ing absurd.

I want him to play like a top-6/middle-6 forward and not be a liability…pretty standard stuff.

Last night we got a good glimpse of what a good game looks like for CMM. 1+1 and no shooting himself in the foot. I hope we see 500+ more performances like it….

 

[Nhlpowerweek]

I hope Oshie isn't hurt long-term. It would be a huge blow to our Playoff chances with Wilson already out.

Brown will be a huge upgrade on your team. His two way game is one of the better ones in the world. He also puts in a lot of pk-work. With Brown, this team succeeds.

 

[g00n]

he was literally top 20 among all nhl forwards in xgpm last season

Source?

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Source?

from evolving hockey, eller was at -2.33

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Brown will be a huge upgrade on your team. His two way game is one of the better ones in the world. He also puts in a lot of pk-work. With Brown, this team succeeds.

He looks like a keeper.

 

[RedRocking]

I worry about the PP the most if TJ is out for an extended amount of time.

Nice to see Brown score from the bumper - hopefully he can be adequate in that spot. Who goes on PP2? Hath?

As we saw last year, it all falls apart without Oshie, and Backstrom. Having to start the season with new guys in both spots might be a mess. Strome has looked decent so far though.

 

[g00n]

View attachment 591276
from evolving hockey, eller was at -2.33

That's not expected goals per minute that's xG differential from what I see on the site, presumably meaning the gap in xGF vs xGA per 60.

To give you an idea of how useful some of these stats are in determining who is "top 20", xGF% for the Capitals shows CMM 3rd on the team! But Ovechkin is 17th. And the rest of the rankings within that stat are similarly useless for setting a roster.

CMM was 112th in the NHL among forwards in xGF 5v5:

Based on CMMs actual xGF/60 he should've had maybe a few more goals than he actually scored all season long.

At about a half a goal more per 60 than Dowd, for example, if he played the same 68 games and had around 14min/game (like Dowd) instead of 10 and a half min per game, he should've had maybe 4 more goals all season IF he delivered at the expected rate.

But he didn't. His xGF predicted 12 goals in 68 games but he scored 9...so 25% less. That means we can probably knock off at least one of those "lost goals" he never scored due to playing 10.5min instead of ~14min per game

So yeah, maybe 3 more goals all season? Guy goes from a 9G scorer to a 12G scorer? Is that worth everyone burning down the boards with daily rage posts?

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

That's not expected goals per minute that's xG differential from what I see on the site, presumably meaning the gap in xGF vs xGA per 60.

To give you an idea of how useful some of these stats are in determining who is "top 20", xGF% for the Capitals shows CMM 3rd on the team! But Ovechkin is 17th. And the rest of the rankings within that stat are similarly useless for setting a roster.

CMM was 112th in the NHL among forwards in xGF 5v5:

View attachment 591293

Based on CMMs actual xGF/60 he should've had maybe a few more goals than he actually scored all season long.

At about a half a goal more per 60 than Dowd, for example, if he played the same 68 games and had around 14min/game (like Dowd) instead of 10 and a half min per game, he should've had maybe 4 more goals all season IF he delivered at the expected rate.

But he didn't. His xGF predicted 12 goals in 68 games but he scored 9...so 25% less. That means we can probably knock off at least one of those "lost goals" he never scored due to playing 10.5min instead of ~14min per game

So yeah, maybe 3 more goals all season? Guy goes from a 9G scorer to a 12G scorer? Is that worth everyone burning down the boards with daily rage posts?

youre misinterpreting the stats completely, xgpm and xGF/60 are totally different. Also posting in bad faith, at least throw a TOI min on there to filter out the guy who played like 50 minutes

 

[um]

I worry about the PP the most if TJ is out for an extended amount of time.

Nice to see Brown score from the bumper - hopefully he can be adequate in that spot. Who goes on PP2? Hath?

As we saw last year, it all falls apart without Oshie, and Backstrom. Having to start the season with new guys in both spots might be a mess. Strome has looked decent so far though.

I don't remember our PP dominating with those guys in the lineup either. Not that I'm blaming them.

I hate to invoke his name and start some more shit. But McMichael has gotta get PP time if he's playing. It makes zero sense to not use him.

 

[g00n]

youre misinterpreting the stats completely, xgpm and xGF/60 are totally different. Also posting in bad faith, at least throw a TOI min on there to filter out the guy who played like 50 minutes

You never said anything about filtering TOI, correct? But you accuse me of posting in bad faith? The default filter is 50 min. What did you set it to? Did you mention that?

The stat you posted in the graphic is absolutely what I said it is...the difference between xGF/60 and xGA/60. I'm not sure what filters you're using to get those numbers, either.

Here's what I just used. Bumped the TOI to min 500min 5v5 so CMM would be included. So these are comparable players in utilization.

CMM was 120th in the NHL in xGF/60 at 5v5 with no adjustments among players with at least 500 min last year.

If we limit it to just forwards per your original posts he was 88th:

Sorry but I'm not a fancy stat expert so I don't know what xgpm is and why it's so much better than xGF/60 which is the coin of the realm in most fancy stat discussions around here. Care to explain? And then post the actual stats instead of xGF/xGA?

 

[Carlzner]

Seems like a metric is flawed when you have both Connor McDavid and Danton Heinen in the top 20, but what do I know!

 

[Hivemind]

Seems like a metric is flawed when you have both Connor McDavid and Danton Heinen in the top 20, but what do I know!

Good thing this isn't the only metric that can be used to support CMM being an impact player. As myself and others have pointed out, it doesn't take fancy stats to demonstrate that CMM was utilizing his ice time well. Just his regular old points/60 and goals/60 at 5v5 were ahead of TJ Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom.

He did what he could with the ice time he had.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I hope Oshie isn't hurt long-term. It would be a huge blow to our Playoff chances with Wilson already out.

I just want him healthy for the playoffs. He can rest durning the regular season

 

[g00n]

Good thing this isn't the only metric that can be used to support CMM being an impact player. As myself and others have pointed out, it doesn't take fancy stats to demonstrate that CMM was utilizing his ice time well. Just his regular old points/60 and goals/60 at 5v5 were ahead of TJ Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom.

He did what he could with the ice time he had.

Except the assertion was not "let's look at all the evidence as a whole" it was "he's top 20 in this stat so he's clearly NHL caliber".

But nice try with the usual spin job.

 

[RedRocking]

I don't remember our PP dominating with those guys in the lineup either. Not that I'm blaming them.

I hate to invoke his name and start some more shit. But McMichael has gotta get PP time if he's playing. It makes zero sense to not use him.

Sure, it would be nice to see CMM get time on PP2, maybe below the goal line, as he seems to do well in that area.

So, the problem I was referencing is when the PK’ers don’t honor the guy in the bumper, and you have two guys just committed to blocking Ovi’s shot. Oshie often buys him that extra half-second. Without him, even w Willy, the group just becomes totally useless, and the PK’ers barely have to exert themselves. The team was in he bottom 2 (along with Arizona) PP during the first half of last year.

It began to improve once Backstrom came back to control the half-wall. And then once Oshie came back for good (March, I believe), it was top 3-ish from that point on.

Unfortunately, it’s an ongoing problem that our PP is predicated on 5 all-star caliber players each playing specialized roles, and no other looks drawn up by Forsythe ever work. This place was flooded with people brainstorming different looks during that awful stretch last year.

But this team really needs its PP working (it was key to success in the FLA series), as it is the area where Ovi is most impactful, and the age of the vets is mitigated by their chemistry, and w/ lesser importance placed on speed.

 

[Raikkonen]

cmm crying is getting out of hand honestly