Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[g00n]

Amazing.

The people IN THE ROOM can often be unaware of the real factors affecting the success or failure of a negotiation. Yet rando fans on the internet imagine they know better.

Attitude 1: "Gmbm blew an obvious opportunity because I read something in a tweet I think is related. GMs are all stupid so clearly this is a major f*** up, as I predicted."

Attitude 2: "There are clearly things I don't know about this unusual situation that are affecting perceptions and valuation. Even if it ends up being the wrong move, professionals and businesspeople usually don't just throw away assets for no reason."

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Ottawa Senators Acquire Cam Talbot

The Minnesota Wild have officially traded goalie Cam Talbot to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for goalie Filip Gustavsson. Senators general manager Pierre …

www.prohockeyrumors.com

 

[pman25]

Seems pretty obvious to me that both goalies were available and they didn’t get any bites for one

At some point the clock runs out and you have to qualify or not. I don’t find it to be poor asset management. A lot of players got bought out or not qualified. Is every GM therefore a poor asset manager? Maybe so! Or maybe there’s just not a partner to get something done before the QO deadline.

I’m more pissed at GMBM for selecting him in the first place in 2015. Hated the pick at the time. Sucks when you see talents like Konecny and Boeser plucked right after.

 

[Carlzner]

Sammy just doesn’t have the mental game to be a professional NHL player. GMBM isn’t an idiot.

Like… come on. Do you really think he didn’t try to move Sammy? Seriously?

It would have been nice to get an asset for him but at the end of the day I’m just glad he’s off the team. It’s time to move on

 

[DWGie26]

Seems pretty obvious to me that both goalies were available and they didn’t get any bites for one

At some point the clock runs out and you have to qualify or not. I don’t find it to be poor asset management. A lot of players got bought out or not qualified. Is every GM therefore a poor asset manager? Maybe so! Or maybe there’s just not a partner to get something done before the QO deadline.

I’m more pissed at GMBM for selecting him in the first place in 2015. Hated the pick at the time. Sucks when you see talents like Konecny and Boeser plucked right after.

Was sick when I saw the list of people picked after Sammy!

 

[DWGie26]

Official on Holtby:

 

[Jags]

Why trade Sammy for Talbot when you could just lose Sammy for nothing! Winning!

Sure, sign the guy to a contract you don't want that you could easily get stuck with at a time when you can't afford it.

They traded for Filip Gustavsson. A goalie of similar age with worse pedigree, coming off a worse NHL season, and who got outplayed by Matt Murray to a significant degree (let alone Anton Forsberg).

Or maybe a superior goalie made to look bad by a much shittier team that costs a third of what Sammy likely will. And maybe they're pissed at Talbot and wanted to ship him to a hockey prison for a year.

The $3M is what Washington supposedly *feared* he would be awarded in arbitration.

Based on a lot of actual information, study, and conversations you have no idea about.

Samsonov's QO was only $2M.

Yeah, and they likely talked to his camp about it and their likelihood of signing it. How do you think that went?

It's entirely possible that Washington, Minnesota, or whichever franchise traded for his rights could have negotiated a contract beneath Washington's feared arbitration, or also that the arbitration value would not have been as high as reported (given that his comparables like Korpisalo, Vejmelka, and Rittich all clocked in at under $3M on their arbitration-aged RFA deals).

Uh huh. And it's entirely possible that the people who actually know and do these things for a living considered and tried all of those things and arrived at the conclusion that the best thing for them to do was to let him walk.

The goalie market is figuring to move fast and furious this year. All the major keepers are rumored to be spoken for already. So it's also entirely possible that Samsonov's crew slow-played everything to force GMBM's hand so he could either get paid or be a UFA and pick his next spot instead of getting traded somewhere he didn't want to be. Maybe that's why he's the only Russian we've got that stayed here in the states when the season ended; cuz he knows he's going to have some meetings and maybe physicals coming up.

That seems far more likely to me. Your mileage may vary.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Was sick when I saw the list of people picked after Sammy!

Ouch does someone want to find the Sammy draft thread. I think i hated it at the time like many.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Was sick when I saw the list of people picked after Sammy!

That stings….

 

[twabby]

It seems almost assured at this point that Washington will sign Kuemper tomorrow, so just to assuage everyone's fears about him here are some ranks in selected stats over the previous year, two year, three year, four year, and five year periods:

	Last year	Last 2 years	Last 3 years	Last 4 years	Last 5 years
Save Percentage	5th (of 59)	9th (of 51)	3rd (of 51)	3rd (of 52)	3rd (of 51)
GSAx	5th	10th	4th	4th	5th
dFSv%	7th	11th	4th	4th	6th

He's about as consistent of a goalie as you're going to find that is realistically available. I worry about how he'll age in the back half of the contract but there's nothing that indicates that the fall is coming next year, or even the year after that. After Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy, Saros, and Hellebuyck he is probably the next best guy out there. If he comes in close to $7 million I won't complain. If he puts up 2-3 years of top 10 play it'll be worth the contract, because who cares about years 4-6 (or 4-7)?

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

It seems almost assured at this point that Washington will sign Kuemper tomorrow, so just to assuage everyone's fears about him here are some ranks in selected stats over the previous year, two year, three year, four year, and five year periods:

	Last year	Last 2 years	Last 3 years	Last 4 years	Last 5 years
Save Percentage	5th (of 59)	9th (of 51)	3rd (of 51)	3rd (of 52)	3rd (of 51)
GSAx	5th	10th	4th	4th	5th
dFSv%	7th	11th	4th	4th	6th

He's about as consistent of a goalie as you're going to find that is realistically available. I worry about how he'll age in the back half of the contract but there's nothing that indicates that the fall is coming next year, or even the year after that. After Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy, Saros, and Hellebuyck he is probably the next best guy out there. If he comes in close to $7 million I won't complain. If he puts up 2-3 years of top 10 play it'll be worth the contract, because who cares about years 4-6 (or 4-7)?

More concerned with the lack of ability to make any other moves if they sign him at the rumored amount.

 

[kicksavedave]

More concerned with the lack of ability to make any other moves if they sign him at the rumored amount.

There is only one hole that they need to fix without any doubt if they want to have any chance at anything. Its the most important position in all of sports.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

More concerned with the lack of ability to make any other moves if they sign him at the rumored amount.

The other moves don’t matter as much if they don’t shore up the last line of defense.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

The other moves don’t matter as much if they don’t shore up the last line of defense.

True!

 

[HeyMattyB]

The other moves don’t matter as much if they don’t shore up the last line of defense.

And once the goalie situation is taken care of, they need to shore up the, ahem... second line of defense!

Orlov-Jensen
??? - Carlson
Fehervary - TVR

Lujo

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

And once the goalie situation is taken care of, they need to shore up the, ahem... second line of defense!

Orlov-Jensen
??? - Carlson
Fehervary - TVR

Lujo

I agree, I previously said a good LD addition.

 

[DWGie26]

It seems almost assured at this point that Washington will sign Kuemper tomorrow, so just to assuage everyone's fears about him here are some ranks in selected stats over the previous year, two year, three year, four year, and five year periods:

	Last year	Last 2 years	Last 3 years	Last 4 years	Last 5 years
Save Percentage	5th (of 59)	9th (of 51)	3rd (of 51)	3rd (of 52)	3rd (of 51)
GSAx	5th	10th	4th	4th	5th
dFSv%	7th	11th	4th	4th	6th

He's about as consistent of a goalie as you're going to find that is realistically available. I worry about how he'll age in the back half of the contract but there's nothing that indicates that the fall is coming next year, or even the year after that. After Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy, Saros, and Hellebuyck he is probably the next best guy out there. If he comes in close to $7 million I won't complain. If he puts up 2-3 years of top 10 play it'll be worth the contract, because who cares about years 4-6 (or 4-7)?

This makes me feel a lot better. Seems destined to happen and I am fine with it.

Just hoping GMBM can work some magic to make the Cap hit work. I am still of the opinion that we offer things that Keumper wants like stability (LT contract), good organization, being part of 895.

So sign him to a 6-7 year term, front load the shit out of the contract (salary and signing bonus) and in 4 years it will be easy to move his low cost (high cap) to a team that has tons of cap space or have him retire as he’ll be over 36 and that will move his cap number off and he still made the majority of his money.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Go get Johnny

 

[DWGie26]

I have seen it posted several times (maybe @HeyMattyB always) with Orlov-Jensen as top pair and JC74 on second pair. Give him mad PP minutes while keeping his overall minutes and exposure down. I like this move. And yes on a legit 2nd pairing LD.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Go get Johnny

That would blow some socks off.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I have seen it posted several times (maybe @HeyMattyB always) with Orlov-Jensen as top pair and JC74 on second pair. Give him mad PP minutes while keeping his overall minutes and exposure down. I like this move. And yes on a legit 2nd pairing LD.

They’re going to eat minutes, but the critical big game minutes will still go to Carlson and his partner. They need to upgrade that spot to try and jumpstart JC74 IMO.

Let Fever dominate on the 3rd pair for a year or 2. His continued development offers them options with Orlov.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

dump Backstrom to injury, trade Eller and we got the money for Johnny only a few more hours of fantasy roster dreams... but really I hope the Philly rumor is wrong and hes stays out west.

 

[The Instigator]

Go get Johnny

Lol we've done it guys, we've mentioned every available player.

 

[RedRocking]

Go get Johnny

With what money? He turned down 10M+ x 8 from Calgary. Even with lower taxes there’s no way.

Maybe NJD, so they can start exposing their young core to some winning? Flyers don’t have the room.