Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[g00n]

It's really just the Georgiev comparison that makes it so strange. Last three years:

Georgiev: 40-31-6 with a .905 SV% and a 2.93 GAA
Samsonov: 52-22-8 with a .902 SV% and a 2.81 GAA

Both have seen their numbers decline every year since entering the league. Sammy's a year younger, a couple inches taller, and has 1st round draft pedigree while Georgiev was undrafted. So why was Georgiev worth two 3rds, a 5th, and a 3x3.4M contract while Sammy went unqualified? There has to be something we're missing about the situation, whether it's that they're close to an agreement for a contract below his QO number or he's threatened to go the the KHL if he doesn't get a starting job or whatever. Gotta be more to this.

My shitty avatars did it.

Seriously, I think it may be an open secret that he's never been happy here and plans on going back to Russia, or something of that ilk. Maybe other off-ice considerations...the various disciplinary problems could be the tip of the iceberg.

But even so there are worse behaved and less-talented players who've gotten contracts in the NHL. I agree something is off.

So I'm leaning toward "he's not going to be in the NHL so no NHL team is willing to trade for him". Only other possible explanation is a planned cheapo deal for the Caps and the current signals point to "no" on that one.

 

[HeyMattyB]

It's really just the Georgiev comparison that makes it so strange. Last three years:

Georgiev: 40-31-6 with a .905 SV% and a 2.93 GAA
Samsonov: 52-22-8 with a .902 SV% and a 2.81 GAA

Both have seen their numbers decline every year since entering the league. Sammy's a year younger, a couple inches taller, and has 1st round draft pedigree while Georgiev was undrafted. So why was Georgiev worth two 3rds, a 5th, and a 3x3.4M contract while Sammy went unqualified? There has to be something we're missing about the situation, whether it's that they're close to an agreement for a contract below his QO number or he's threatened to go the the KHL if he doesn't get a starting job or whatever. Gotta be more to this.

Maybe COL was the only team looking for that type of goalie acquisition, and they went with Georgiev. I mean, the general reaction to COL's decision was a giant "WTF? That's a terrible decision, one clearly forced by COL's cap situation." Are there any other teams in that cap situation that are also looking for a Georgiev/Samsonov-esque player? Someone they're praying might turn it around and become a competent 1A, and are willing to shell out similar assets via trade to acquire that guy?

 

[Jags]

Looking at RFA and so many not getting QO’ers, I’m not surprised that Caps didn’t qualify Sammy.

I agree. Given the way it's shaken out so far, they likely discussed his tender with his agent and they gave some indication if he sign it. If yes, then they probably shopped him under contract at that price, a la "Hey, if we had Samsonov locked in at $2.4m, what would you give me?" And maybe there was no interest. And if no, they gauged interest at a higher number or just for his rights, and maybe there was no interest there, either. Or maybe there was a little interest in either case but they didn't want to risk getting stuck with him at either price. So if the interest was a mid/late pick or whatever, best to just let him walk and not risk it.

There's a number of guys not qualified that seem surprising, and it might just be some combination of the still-pretty-flat cap and the best UFA class in a long time.

 

[g00n]

I agree. Given the way it's shaken out so far, they likely discussed his tender with his agent and they gave some indication if he sign it. If yes, then they probably shopped him under contract at that price, a la "Hey, if we had Samsonov locked in at $2.4m, what would you give me?" And maybe there was no interest. And if no, they gauged interest at a higher number or just for his rights, and maybe there was no interest there, either. Or maybe there was a little interest in either case but they didn't want to risk getting stuck with him at either price. So if the interest was a mid/late pick or whatever, best to just let him walk and not risk it.

There's a number of guys not qualified that seem surprising, and it might just be some combination of the still-pretty-flat cap and the best UFA class in a long time.

Also possible that every GM in the league is not so stupid (despite @twabby 's assessment) that they realized the Caps were likely to cut Sammy loose, since they'd made no secret of their desire to shop him for such a long time, so they all just said "no thanks" and decided to wait and see how cheaply he could be had.

 

[Jags]

If Backstrom won't return until around February at earliest then can they, say, spend 60% of his money?

Yeah, that gets overlooked a lot. A lot of people (even some of the professional "pundits" in the media) misunderstand how that part of the cap works. They think a guy with a 9.2m hit has the same hit all year long. The nuance of the cap spending downward as the season unfolds is harder to wrap your head around. So yeah, that's exactly how it works. You can kinda gameplan and either just spend the portion you can afford or overspend and worry about the incongruity of that next year.

So back to Trocheck at 2C…something in that ballpark?

Maybe, sure. But also there's still JT Miller. He's still got the cheap year regardless of what you might do with an extension. So you can trade for him and even extend him at a much higher price, but then have a really difficult situation to work out if Backstrom comes back and wants to keep coming back. We'd have to ship out some serious salary (around the value of an Oshie or Mantha) or risk having to let Orlov or Jensen walk.

So it's all a big bet on what you think Nick's future is, and there's little doubt that they already have way more insight into that than we do. Jovanovski's surgery was around a decade ago. Maybe Nick's condition isn't as bad and maybe the surgery has advanced a lot since then and his doctors are telling the team that they're super optimistic and GMBM is having to bank on that. Or maybe behind the scenes it's a depressing shitshow and they know he's unlikely to play again and this is all just LTIR theater we've seen a couple times before.

Who knows? Either way, I'd still spend the money and work it out next year.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's really just the Georgiev comparison that makes it so strange. Last three years:

Georgiev: 40-31-6 with a .905 SV% and a 2.93 GAA
Samsonov: 52-22-8 with a .902 SV% and a 2.81 GAA

Both have seen their numbers decline every year since entering the league. Sammy's a year younger, a couple inches taller, and has 1st round draft pedigree while Georgiev was undrafted. So why was Georgiev worth two 3rds, a 5th, and a 3x3.4M contract while Sammy went unqualified? There has to be something we're missing about the situation, whether it's that they're close to an agreement for a contract below his QO number or he's threatened to go to the KHL if he doesn't get a starting job or whatever. Gotta be more to this.

It’s not always in the numbers. The GMs appear to have made it clear they were very down on the guy.

He was given every opportunity to seize the starter role where as Georgiev was stuck behind an elite performer.

Also possible that every GM in the league is not so stupid (despite @twabby 's assessment) that they realized the Caps were likely to cut Sammy loose, since they'd made no secret of their desire to shop him for such a long time, so they all just said "no thanks" and decided to wait and see how cheaply he could be had.

I think if anyone really wanted him, they would have offered a 4th or 5th at a minimum to lock him in.

no takers is my read of GMBM’s comments about ”supply and demand”…..


I’m done with all the various theories until we know for certain. I’m going with, he’s just not good and the NHL knows it.

I won’t be surprised if he’s in the KHL next year or playing here under a pay cut.

 

[HTFN]

It's weird because planning on the early timeline is such a stupid move (and the NHL has proven it over and over at this point). Hustling along to bring Backstrom in by February seems so silly compared to letting him take a longer, leisurely rehab with plenty of room to get comfortable. Not only is it kind of fair given the nature of the surgery and what future injury would mean for his life going forward, it's also a real nice way to do the whole "playoff acquisition" thing

Maybe (hopefully) they're just saying the right things but maaaan that's a goofy move to potentially lose the guy by the playoffs anyway if it doesn't go well (or have no real time before the deadline to make a move without looking desperate and losing leverage)

 

[RandyHolt]

No Caps Dev Camp thread makes Ovi a dull boy.

 

[capsovi7878]

I hope gmbm doesn’t sign more over the hill slow players

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Fantasy lineup

Ovie - Malkin - Oshie
Johnny Hockey - Kuz - Mantha
Sheary - CMM - plug
AJF - Dowd - Hathaway

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's weird because planning on the early timeline is such a stupid move (and the NHL has proven it over and over at this point). Hustling along to bring Backstrom in by February seems so silly compared to letting him take a longer, leisurely rehab with plenty of room to get comfortable. Not only is it kind of fair given the nature of the surgery and what future injury would mean for his life going forward, it's also a real nice way to do the whole "playoff acquisition" thing

Maybe (hopefully) they're just saying the right things but maaaan that's a goofy move to potentially lose the guy by the playoffs anyway if it doesn't go well (or have no real time before the deadline to make a move without looking desperate and losing leverage)

It might be simply regurgitating what the medical professionals have said about recovery timelines.

I don‘t think in ANY way they are thinking they need to get him back sooner rather than later.

 

[HTFN]

It might be simply regurgitating what the medical professionals have said about recovery timelines.

I don‘t think in ANY way they are thinking they need to get him back sooner rather than later.

Really hope not, seems so imprudent on every level

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Really hope not, seems so imprudent on every level

If we see they hold onto his cap money and go with CMM/Eller, we’ll have our answer.

 

[HandsomeTom43]

Sign Kuemper and Kadri for 14.5 mil total, resign Mojo 1x1.5. Promote Fucale and maybe sign a cheap goalie.--1 mil LTIR Backstrom, trade Eller for draft picks, promote the guys and roll with it. I'd love to trade Carlson but I don't think it's realistic for this team. At the trade deadline, if there's a punchers chance trade picks for one of Tarasenko, Pacioretty, JVR, Matt Dumba, or whoever is available to improve the team. Honestly, if Nick can come back and even play the third line and PP in the playoffs, this may be the last real shot for this team, I'd go ALL IN this year if we're going to spend money on Kuemper.

 

[illicit]

Peter Laviolette indicates Ilya Samsonov will not be coming back: ‘We’re moving in a different direction’

The Washington Capitals will not be bringing back Ilya Samsonov. Capitals head coach Peter Laviolette revealed the news while doing an interview…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Confirmed by Lav that there's no chance Sammy returns.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Peter Laviolette indicates Ilya Samsonov will not be coming back: ‘We’re moving in a different direction’

The Washington Capitals will not be bringing back Ilya Samsonov. Capitals head coach Peter Laviolette revealed the news while doing an interview…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Confirmed by Lav that there's no chance Sammy returns.

F yes…..thanks for your service.

 

[Hivemind]

Why trade Sammy for Talbot when you could just lose Sammy for nothing! Winning!

 

[kicksavedave]

Peter Laviolette indicates Ilya Samsonov will not be coming back: ‘We’re moving in a different direction’

The Washington Capitals will not be bringing back Ilya Samsonov. Capitals head coach Peter Laviolette revealed the news while doing an interview…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Confirmed by Lav that there's no chance Sammy returns.

There has to be something "in the room" that leads the Caps to give up on Sammy at this point... he still has physical potential/ability, but they've clearly seen enough and are over it.

Why trade Sammy for Talbot when you could just lose Sammy for nothing! Winning!

Do you have any indication that Minny wanted Sammy at all, or that GMBM didn't call and get laughed at?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Why trade Sammy for Talbot when you could just lose Sammy for nothing! Winning!

takes 2 to tango

 

[Hivemind]

Do you have any indication that Minny wanted Sammy at all, or that GMBM didn't call and get laughed at?

They traded for Filip Gustavsson. A goalie of similar age with worse pedigree, coming off a worse NHL season, and who got outplayed by Matt Murray to a significant degree (let alone Anton Forsberg).

 

[DWGie26]

This is another problem with too many analytics (and I love analytics). But GM’ing like, like playing, like most things in the world are part art and part science. You can look at the numbers and reasonability, but there is also a lot of “selling, positioning, and back door conversations”. Like him or not, GMBM is very very savvy. He figures out how to spend to the cap, does a good job on calculated bets (but you never win all of your bets). All these things that people here think GMBM should do… he has done all of them, plus 100 things you would have never thought of. If he could have moved Sammy he would have.

 

[Hivemind]

takes 2 to tango

When you see similar (and worse!!) goalies getting traded this off-season, it should be evidence enough that the asset management of Samsonov was blundered.

 

[DWGie26]

They traded for Filip Gustavsson. A goalie of similar age with worse pedigree, coming off a worse NHL season, and who got outplayed by Matt Murray to a significant degree (let alone Anton Forsberg).

That should tell you exactly how other GM’s view Sammy.

 

[kicksavedave]

They traded for Filip Gustavsson. A goalie of similar age with worse pedigree, coming off a worse NHL season, and who got outplayed by Matt Murray to a significant degree (let alone Anton Forsberg).

FG has a $787 cap hit. Sammy was in line for $3 something, to be a backup? Um ok.

 

[Hivemind]

FG makes 750K. Sammy was in line for $3 something, to be a backup? Um ok.

The $3M is what Washington supposedly *feared* he would be awarded in arbitration. Samsonov's QO was only $2M. It's entirely possible that Washington, Minnesota, or whichever franchise traded for his rights could have negotiated a contract beneath Washington's feared arbitration, or also that the arbitration value would not have been as high as reported (given that his comparables like Korpisalo, Vejmelka, and Rittich all clocked in at under $3M on their arbitration-aged RFA deals).

This definitely isn't the first time that GMBM has been overly cautious about arbitration awards.

That should tell you exactly how other GM’s view Sammy.

That should tell you that GMBM blundered this asset management. We already knew that Montreal was interested in trading for Samsonov.