Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[Hivemind]

Is there a possibility that Backstrom pulls a Kucherov and sits out the regular season to create cap space and then comes back for the playoffs?

It's a possibility, but the Capitals also aren't guaranteed to make the playoffs like Tampa was. And, if you trust BMac's presser, he doesn't want to spend Nicky's cap space.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Who blamed Wilson? One of their top two centers was brought back even though he had no business playing.

I just find it nuts to rattle off 5 or 6 players on a team who has lost four years in a row in the first round who can’t or shouldn’t be traded. Really?

You called out injury as if it was because of age. who are you to say who has business to play? You are one of those who thinks they should have shit on Backstrom and just let him go? If he hadn’t injured himself last year, maybe things go differently? Bad luck On that.

Again….they can be traded in good hockey trades, not futures moves. What’s hard to grasp?

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

You called out injury as if it was because of age. who are you to say who has business to play? You are one of those who thinks they should have shit on Backstrom and just let him go? If he hadn’t injured himself last year, maybe things go differently? Bad luck On that.

Again….they can be traded in good hockey trades, not futures moves. What’s hard to grasp?

I am what now? Who said let him go? You are assuming a ton from a few sentences.

Backstrom struggled big time last year and even by his own words. Why is that so hard to grasp as you would say?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I am what now? Who said let him go? You are assuming a ton from a few sentences.

Backstrom struggled big time last year and even by his own words. Why is that so hard to grasp as you would say?

You would have walked away from Backstrom? Injuries happen. This was a career award. That one you can take up with Leonsis.

Is there a possibility that Backstrom pulls a Kucherov and sits out the regular season to create cap space and then comes back for the playoffs?

Seems very likely to me…..

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

You would have walked away from Backstrom? Injuries happen. This was a career award. That one you can take up with Leonsis.

Where did I say that? Quote that part.

He should have been on LTIR last season to continue to rehab or eventually have surgery. He could barley skate. Nowhere; did I say they should have let him go.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Where did I say that? Quote that part.

He should have been on LTIR last season to continue to rehab or eventually have surgery. He could barley skate. Nowhere; did I say they should have let him go.

“One of their top two centers was brought back even though he had no business playing.”


what’s the alternative to bringing him back? Not signing him.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

“One of their top two centers was brought back even though he had no business playing.”


what’s the alternative to bringing him back? Not signing him.

No. Bringing him back from LTIR.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No. Bringing him back from LTIR.

I see….if he’s medically cleared and wants to play, what can you do? Can’t stash him illegally.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I see….if he’s medically cleared and wants to play, what can you do? Can’t stash him illegally.

I doubt it would be the first time. And judging by his skating and his own words at the end of the season, he was definitely still injured and playing through it. While it’s admirable, it isn’t the best move for the team performance wise.

 

[HeyMattyB]

How does it even work, with determining if an LTIR player is healthy "enough" to play? I'm assuming that the player + team doctors normally get to make that call, but does the NHL step in if it seems like there's major salary cap shenanigans going on? That didn't seem to be the case with Kucherov.

But yeah, if the Caps and Backstrom were to plan on him being LTIR for the entire season and then bring him back for the playoffs (and spending his LTIR money in the meantime), what guarantee is there that the NHL wouldn't step in and be like, "Yo, this guy can play well enough, so tough shit: you've got to take him off LTIR and deal with the salary-cap implications."

 

[DWGie26]

I doubt it would be the first time. And judging by his skating and his own words at the end of the season, he was definitely still injured and playing through it. While it’s admirable, it isn’t the best move for the team performance wise.

Which is exactly why I think GMBM is full of shit (posturing) that he is holding Backstrom’s salary. They (GMBM and Backy) both learned from last year that they can’t rush him back. And that makes for a plausible story to keep him on LTIR until playoffs. So i think they will absolutely spend that Backy LTIR money. And I’d love to see the Kucherov renamed the Backstrom when he comes back for the playoffs and Caps win another cup.

 

[DWGie26]

Looking at RFA and so many not getting QO’ers, I’m not surprised that Caps didn’t qualify Sammy. He has arbitration rights so there was a strong possibility that he would have gotten an award of 3 to 3.5M. I don’t think any other GM in the league would want to trade for that possibility.

Whomever signs Sammy will do so at less than $2M. Maybe the caps resign him to a lower value contract and then they could still trade him.

 

[usiel]

Is there a possibility that Backstrom pulls a Kucherov and sits out the regular season to create cap space and then comes back for the playoffs?

This was my initial thought when seeing the detailed recovery time lines. Now I know GMBM said they expect him to play in the regular season but I think he has to say that whether it is a true statement or not for cover.

 

[twabby]

It took Ed Jovanovski 9 months to return after his resurfacing surgery. Kesler never returned.

Assuming Backstrom takes the same amount of time to return as Jovanovski he'd be back sometime around the middle of March 2023. That's one month before the playoffs, so Kucheroving him seems like the best option. Is the NHL really going to step in and say he needs to return to play Game #79? Seems very unlikely given the nature of the surgery and how rare it is for NHL players to get the surgery. This isn't a torn ACL and MCL with a well-established recovery timeline.

What's the real best case scenario for Backstrom's recovery? Is there any shot he returns in January-February? Seems really doubtful. On the other hand it seems like there is a substantial chance he's played his last game in the NHL. Given these outcomes, how can they justify not spending his money now?

 

[HeyMattyB]

THAT CASH AIN'T GONNA SPEND ITSELF!

 

[kicksavedave]

It took Ed Jovanovski 9 months to return after his resurfacing surgery. Kesler never returned.

Assuming Backstrom takes the same amount of time to return as Jovanovski he'd be back sometime around the middle of March 2023. That's one month before the playoffs, so Kucheroving him seems like the best option. Is the NHL really going to step in and say he needs to return to play Game #79? Seems very unlikely given the nature of the surgery and how rare it is for NHL players to get. This isn't a torn ACL and MCL with a well-established recovery timeline.

What's the real best case scenario for Backstrom's recovery? Is there any shot he returns in January-February? Seems really doubtful. On the other hand it seems like there is a substantial chance he's played his last game in the NHL. Given these outcomes, how can they justify not spending his money now?

Jovo took 9 months but only lasted 36 games. Ya wanna give him a chance but realistically, he (Backstrom) is done.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

It took Ed Jovanovski 9 months to return after his resurfacing surgery. Kesler never returned.

Assuming Backstrom takes the same amount of time to return as Jovanovski he'd be back sometime around the middle of March 2023. That's one month before the playoffs, so Kucheroving him seems like the best option. Is the NHL really going to step in and say he needs to return to play Game #79? Seems very unlikely given the nature of the surgery and how rare it is for NHL players to get. This isn't a torn ACL and MCL with a well-established recovery timeline.

What's the real best case scenario for Backstrom's recovery? Is there any shot he returns in January-February? Seems really doubtful. On the other hand it seems like there is a substantial chance he's played his last game in the NHL. Given these outcomes, how can they justify not spending his money now?

Jovo only played 36 more NHL games after the surgery and then retired…so….

It took Ed Jovanovski 9 months to return after his resurfacing surgery. Kesler never returned.

Assuming Backstrom takes the same amount of time to return as Jovanovski he'd be back sometime around the middle of March 2023. That's one month before the playoffs, so Kucheroving him seems like the best option. Is the NHL really going to step in and say he needs to return to play Game #79? Seems very unlikely given the nature of the surgery and how rare it is for NHL players to get. This isn't a torn ACL and MCL with a well-established recovery timeline.

What's the real best case scenario for Backstrom's recovery? Is there any shot he returns in January-February? Seems really doubtful. On the other hand it seems like there is a substantial chance he's played his last game in the NHL. Given these outcomes, how can they justify not spending his money now?

Good question. Maybe the don’t want to spend the money? That’s the only thing I can come up with.

 

[twabby]

Jovo took 9 months but only lasted 36 games. Ya wanna give him a chance but realistically, he (Backstrom) is done.

Jovo only played 36 more NHL games after the surgery and then retired…so….


Good question. Maybe the don’t want to spend the money? That’s the only thing I can come up with.

Right that's getting to my point. Of the two players who got the surgery one never returned, and one played 30 games. It's not a big sample, but if your good case scenario is "30 games 9 months from now" don't you have to just go with the odds, use Backstrom's money, and if he makes a miraculous recovery figure out how to make it work later?

Oshie might be injured at that point, it wouldn't surprise anyone. Mantha might be the odd one out and have to be traded. Perhaps Kuznetsov gets the Omega Strain of COVID while attending a comedy show and is incapacitated. Maybe Tom Wilson will tear his ACL again trying to avoid a bad hit.

The fear I have is Backstrom doesn't return, they have a boatload of cap room, and no one good to acquire while they piss away another year of Ovechkin's final years.

 

[Langway]

If Backstrom won't return until around February at earliest then can they, say, spend 60% of his money? Something in that ballpark? Is there nuance so that they can allot a percentage they project to be able to get away with and remain able to activate him when the theoretical time comes? There are complications like other LTIR/IR stays and additional call-ups that could factor in but it probably shouldn't be as cut-and-dry as setting aside the whole $9.2M. It's complicated to plan around but something along those lines seems like the strategic middle ground. It would be something where they could thread the needle of both keeping the door open for him and being responsible enough not to bank on it or wait for him as a crucial addition. He should be viewed as a likely 3C and PP specialist only going forward. If he can eventually work his way to more than that it should be gravy, not the plan.

Something like Miller at the right price then could perhaps work. It would allow them the flexibility to explore an extension in the spring depending on how the situation unfolds. If they can make that trade this evening with, say, top 10 protection and Iorio I'd have to pull the trigger. Again, assuming the structural planning angle is feasible.

 

[HeyMattyB]

What would be preferable for the basis of a Miller trade: 1st + Lorio or 1st + Hendrix? I mean, if we're getting a new top-six center and the goal is to extend him, and we're penciling CMM in as a middle-six center, is there still a place for Hendrix? (And that all assumes that Backy *doesn't* come back AND Eller is traded this year or gone as a UFA next year, so that the team runs with Kuzzy/Miller/CMM/Dowd.) Or is his value to the team and potential to pan out that much higher than Lorio's?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Jovo took 9 months but only lasted 36 games. Ya wanna give him a chance but realistically, he (Backstrom) is done.

That’s the spirit!

I hope Backy is more positive, but they may have already told him it is unlikely he’ll play again, or they might think he has a good chance based on what they saw during surgery.

 

[pman25]

This is why best case for Backstrom to return would be Training Camp 2023. I don't see how he comes back mid season or even for the playoffs. Give him a full year off and check his progress before free agency 2023. If he can't come back after surgery and a year of therapy then its over. I think he deserves a shot to come back, we owe it to him. But don't plan your offseason on the assumption he will. Move forward and if by some miracle he can play again, you deal with the cap later.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If Backstrom won't return until around February at earliest then can they, say, spend 60% of his money? Something in that ballpark? Is there nuance so that they can allot a percentage they project to be able to get away with and remain able to activate him when the theoretical time comes? There are complications like other LTIR/IR stays and additional call-ups that could factor in but it probably shouldn't be as cut-and-dry as setting aside the whole $9.2M. It's complicated to plan around but something along those lines seems like the strategic middle ground. It would be something where they could thread the needle of both keeping the door open for him and being responsible enough not to bank on it or wait for him as a crucial addition. He should be viewed as a likely 3C and PP specialist only going forward. If he can eventually work his way to more than that it should be gravy, not the plan.

Something like Miller at the right price then could perhaps work. It would allow them the flexibility to explore an extension in the spring depending on how the situation unfolds. If they can make that trade this evening with, say, top 10 protection and Iorio I'd have to pull the trigger. Again, assuming the structural planning angle is feasible.

So back to Trocheck at 2C…something in that ballpark?

 

[twabby]

If Backstrom won't return until around February at earliest then can they, say, spend 60% of his money? Something in that ballpark? Is there nuance so that they can allot a percentage they project to be able to get away with and remain able to activate him when the theoretical time comes? There are complications like other LTIR/IR stays and additional call-ups that could factor in but it probably shouldn't be as cut-and-dry as setting aside the whole $9.2M. It's complicated to plan around but something along those lines seems like the strategic middle ground. It would be something where they could thread the needle of both keeping the door open for him and being responsible enough not to bank on it or wait for him as a crucial addition. He should be viewed as a likely 3C and PP specialist only going forward. If he can eventually work his way to more than that it should be gravy, not the plan.

Something like Miller at the right price then could perhaps work. It would allow them the flexibility to explore an extension in the spring depending on how the situation unfolds. If they can make that trade this evening with, say, top 10 protection and Iorio I'd have to pull the trigger. Again, assuming the structural planning angle is feasible.

If my armchair GMing is correct then they'd be able to add JT Miller pretty easily by using $6 million of Backstrom's $9.2 million, along with adding a winger and a defenseman in the $3 to $4 million ballpark. It would require trading Eller, but I think that'd be a given if a center is brought in regardless. Here's what I have:

I'm leaving Tom Wilson as the healthy scratch because he will be off LTIR sooner rather than later, so his money rightfully needs to be reserved.

But the lineup above with JT Miller, Kuemper, a cheap backup (Comrie), a top 6 value winger (Marchment), and an LD upgrade (Kulak) is almost $3.5 million under the cap ceiling. And it looks pretty competitive, all things considered. They really have an opportunity to nail this offseason, even if they don't spend all of Backstrom's money. But they need to use a good portion of it.

 

[Kalopsia]

I mean, it sounds like GMBM was looking at trade options for both Sammy and Vanny. He found a taker for Vanny, but nobody was interested in trading for Sammy's RFA rights. (Especially given his expected arbitration award. That's just too much for any cap-conscious team to spend on a backup.) I don't doubt that GMBM was working the phones, and I highly doubt that he had an offer, any offer, for Samsonov and was like, "Aw hell no, let's just not qualify him and let him become a FA instead!"

So if your opinion is "his outing in the playoffs should have bought some credit elsewhere," I'd argue that the end result here shows he didn't have value anywhere. Then again, maybe the Caps do sign him as a backup for less than the expected arbitration award. We'll find out tomorrow.

It's really just the Georgiev comparison that makes it so strange. Last three years:

Georgiev: 40-31-6 with a .905 SV% and a 2.93 GAA
Samsonov: 52-22-8 with a .902 SV% and a 2.81 GAA

Both have seen their numbers decline every year since entering the league. Sammy's a year younger, a couple inches taller, and has 1st round draft pedigree while Georgiev was undrafted. So why was Georgiev worth two 3rds, a 5th, and a 3x3.4M contract while Sammy went unqualified? There has to be something we're missing about the situation, whether it's that they're close to an agreement for a contract below his QO number or he's threatened to go to the KHL if he doesn't get a starting job or whatever. Gotta be more to this.