Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[twabby]

I think it’s just most are more accepting of our fate. That fate is to slowly die on the vine until they’re forced to rebuild.

You and a few others want massive team identity altering trades that just are unlikely to happen on a large scale.

absolutely we need guys who can drive offense and produce offense. How exactly do you get enough of those to alter this team’s current course, when other teams covet them also?

the next 4 years is realistically about simply making the playoffs, the goal chase, and then it’s rebuild time. Punchers chance at best.

If they literally can't make these types of moves (as opposed to just not being willing to give up the assets needed to make a move) I'd rather they just stand pat. I don't really see the point in getting a lower ceiling downgrade from Kuznetsov, for instance, when the team needs a 1C with a high ceiling if they hope to make any noise in the postseason.

 

[Hivemind]

What has higher odds of happening?

A - Kuzy regains his peak form, and the Caps go on a deep run as a result
B - The Capitals go on a deep run without a center dominating play

I don't think either outcome is particularly likely, but I do think A is more likely.

 

[Jags]

I think I'm just not as high on the team's top 6 forwards as most people are. Ovechkin and Backstrom are unlikely to be able to carry play at 5v5 like they used to be able to, Wilson has never been a huge play-driver despite being impactful in other ways, and Oshie is more of a defensive and power-play specialist than a play-driving forward these days. I actually like what I saw from Mantha but he's not really a dynamo.

I'm not going to debate the things that make you feel that way. You vacillate between thin interpretations of advanced stats and cherrypicking single, complicated data points to try to bolster your "We need one or two of THIS shortlist of amazing players we cannot possibly acquire or we're doomed!" argument (hyperbole mine).

So let's just say you're 100% right about the above quote. How do you fix it? Kuznetsov is not now and never was a player that could put Ovechkin or Oshie on his back and make them wildly more effective than they were without him, and he doesn't line up with Backstrom at evens. So these problems aren't solved even if Kuznetsov returns to form or finds a whole new gear. No single player gets that done. McDavid got exactly as far as we did in the playoffs, and Gretzky never won a Cup after Edmonton.

A massive overhaul this offseason is definitely not happening. Manage your expectations. I think we have a good team that can be better than they were last year with GMBM's typical tinkering. All we can reasonably hope for is an underdog run, because there's no way we're going to be the odds-on favorite to win it all. I would rather this version of our team ride off into the sunset taking their best shot than to drastically mortgage the future to tilt at windmills.

So yeah, this is likely going to be a protracted exercise of putting different shades of lipstick on this particular pig and hoping for the best. And that's exactly what we all thought when the 2017-18 season started.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Cool story, mate.

Sorry to touch so close to home for you….hurts I’m sure.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If they literally can't make these types of moves (as opposed to just not being willing to give up the assets needed to make a move) I'd rather they just stand pat. I don't really see the point in getting a lower ceiling downgrade from Kuznetsov, for instance, when the team needs a 1C with a high ceiling if they hope to make any noise in the postseason.

I haven’t seen a compelling logical reason to stand pat. Dude is 3 years removed from his best play…..

It’s worth an $8 mil gamble for a 4th year in a row for you?

A player ceiling you can only fondly recall in memory is useless.

 

[txpd]

Generating a high number of quality chances and limiting quality chances against.

Kuznetsov was good this year but his track record of driving play hasn't been very good and it's why I'd prefer they move on from him if they can land an upgrade. If not, I'd rather ride his high variance style and hope we get Good Kuzy because this teams needs a dynamo in the top 6 if they are going to make any noise. Adding a solid but not great second line center in the mold of guys like Danault or Krejci doesn't do much to elevate the overall ceiling of the team.

The Caps were tied for 4th in goals for per game last season and yet you think their top 6 players blow. The Caps dont need to score more goals. They need to do it differently and if they score less and win less but the right way, thats better. I just shake my head.

 

[Melkor]

Sorry to touch so close to home for you….hurts I’m sure.

No idea what you're rambling about last three posts straight lol. As I said,

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Carry on being you! Lol….dance for me!

 

[twabby]

I haven’t seen a compelling logical reason to stand pat. Dude is 3 years removed from his best play…..

It’s worth an $8 mil gamble for a 4th year in a row for you?

A player ceiling you can only fondly recall in memory is useless.

Kuznetsov’s value is in the toilet now and the names being floated by others (Danault, Krejci) are not upgrades. Why get a worse player and not get significant assets back? It’s not really sensical IMO.

 

[Jags]

Kuznetsov’s value is in the toilet now and the names being floated by others (Danault, Krejci) are not upgrades. Why get a worse player and not get significant assets back? It’s not really sensical IMO.

Why? The millions in cap space, the actual utility of those players being equal to or greater than the shitty version of Kuznetsov, getting an infectious shithead out of the locker room, the draft picks or prospect(s) we'll get back, being able to move in a positive direction without a nebulous question mark hanging around our necks...

How many reasons you want? I gotta million of 'em.

But seriously, folks, I think we probably agree that keeping him IF IF IF the coach and players are into it and think he can get his shit together. If not, yeah, I'd absolutely cut ties for the cap space alone, not to mention the freedom to just plain move on to whatever's next.

 

[CapsDC]

Why? The millions in cap space, the actual utility of those players being equal to or greater than the shitty version of Kuznetsov, getting an infectious shithead out of the locker room, the draft picks or prospect(s) we'll get back, being able to move in a positive direction without a nebulous question mark hanging around our necks...

How many reasons you want? I gotta million of 'em.

But seriously, folks, I think we probably agree that keeping him IF IF IF the coach and players are into it and think he can get his shit together. If not, yeah, I'd absolutely cut ties for the cap space alone, not to mention the freedom to just plain move on to whatever's next.

So Kuznetsov is an infectious shithead, but another team will give us a player who's cheaper and as good or perhaps even better, and throw in some prospects or picks as well? You sold me, let's do it

 

[Jags]

This isn't a Forsberg situation to me at all. I feel about Kuznetsov exactly how I did about Vrana. I know he's crazy talented and may very well have a bright future ahead of him. But he acted like an asshole for years at the expense of his teammates, fans, and his own development. If he can't get out of his own way and dedicate himself to the pursuit of every other player in this league, f*** him. Next man up.

If it'll bother you that he might blossom someplace else, then you're probably one of those guys sitting around wondering "What if?" about that old girlfriend that cheated and treated you like shit, fretting over her current happiness on Facebook. For me it's like those zombie movies where a dude gets bit on the hand and immediately asks the guy next to him to chop his arm off so he can survive. That ex-girlfriend is a twat, I don't wanna be a zombie, and Kuznetsov can f*** right off.

Your mileage may vary.

 

[Jags]

So Kuznetsov is an infectious shithead, but another team will give us a player who's cheaper and as good or perhaps even better, and throw in some prospects or picks as well? You sold me, let's do it

No, he's a guy that seems to like coke and COVID, there are serviceable replacements in free agency that won't cost as much, and the trade will yield some assets (we only have cap space for futures at the moment). Reading is fundamental.

 

[CapsDC]

No, he's a guy that seems to like coke and COVID, there are serviceable replacements in free agency that won't cost as much, and the trade will yield some assets (we only have cap space for futures at the moment). Reading is fundamental.

acting like a condescending prick doesn't make your point any more believable

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Kuznetsov’s value is in the toilet now and the names being floated by others (Danault, Krejci) are not upgrades. Why get a worse player and not get significant assets back? It’s not really sensical IMO.

don’t get stuck on names you can only read somewhere.

Remember 50 pt Kuzy isn’t that tough of a replacement. That is the bar today, not Conn Smythe 80 pt Kuzy.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

acting like a condescending prick doesn't make your point any more believable

makes it more entertaining!


Besides….I just assumed condescending prick was a game most of us have played here lol!

 

[Calicaps]

don’t get stuck on names you can only read somewhere.

Remember 50 pt Kuzy isn’t that tough of a replacement. That is the bar today, not Conn Smythe 80 pt Kuzy.

twabby's bar is SuperxGF Kuzy (still just 50 points, but that doesn't matter)

 

[twabby]

Why? The millions in cap space, the actual utility of those players being equal to or greater than the shitty version of Kuznetsov, getting an infectious shithead out of the locker room, the draft picks or prospect(s) we'll get back, being able to move in a positive direction without a nebulous question mark hanging around our necks...

How many reasons you want? I gotta million of 'em.

But seriously, folks, I think we probably agree that keeping him IF IF IF the coach and players are into it and think he can get his shit together. If not, yeah, I'd absolutely cut ties for the cap space alone, not to mention the freedom to just plain move on to whatever's next.

There are others who can be purged for cap space if necessary. Justin Schultz and his $4 million should be gone this offseason as far as I’m concerned, and he can be replaced by a league minimum player with not much lost. Dillon and Hagelin are other players I’d look to move if cap space is the main concern before I’d look to move Kuznetsov.

Again I don’t mind moving on from Kuznetsov. But put his money to good use. And don’t waste Ovechkin’s and Backstrom’s final years leaving assets on the table trying to make an impact move.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

If the Caps are going for down graded NHL players over what we know we have, I rather blow the team up and acquire picks and prospects. As much as I'm ticked off with Kuzy, I don't want junk return in current NHL talent given he's proven he can score in the regular season and playoffs while being a center. I rather accept the changes and go full youth movement. I still think they can compete for the playoffs after all this offseason season with current talent, however to make trades for the sake of it is just wasteful, imho. This league has too many teams and too many people trying to get NHL quality assets in ever position. They should have kept the Ducks and Lightning as the last NHL expansion. I remember a coworker in the mid 90s in my hockey pool who wasn't a fan of the NHL much. We taught him the NHL rules and he used stats and scoresheets to pick his team and was quite good at it. One thing I remember him saying is, "NHL is growing too fast" and that was in 1995. Maybe the Wild as another expansion, however Columbus didn't need a franchise and I like it for being semi local, but that team isn't going to stay in town.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

There are others who can be purged for cap space if necessary. Justin Schultz and his $4 million should be gone this offseason as far as I’m concerned, and he can be replaced by a league minimum player with not much lost. Dillon and Hagelin are other players I’d look to move if cap space is the main concern before I’d look to move Kuznetsov.

Again I don’t mind moving on from Kuznetsov. But put his money to good use. And don’t waste Ovechkin’s and Backstrom’s final years leaving assets on the table trying to make an impact move.

Absolutely. After his hot start at the beginning of the season, he's been hot garbage since his injury. That kind of money is gold now.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

No idea what you're rambling about last three posts straight lol. As I said,

That video has gone viral the last couple of days.

 

[twabby]

don’t get stuck on names you can only read somewhere.

Yes I agree! Be creative! Go after those big names that might be available if you’re willing to give up perceived value!

 

[Hivemind]

twabby's bar is SuperxGF Kuzy (still just 50 points, but that doesn't matter)

You sure spend a lot of time using “actual points” and “actual wins” to attack other posters arguments while defending a team that has zero “actual playoff round wins” in the last three years.


Maybe this status quo approach isn’t the right approach?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If the Caps are going for down graded NHL players over what we know we have, I rather blow the team up and acquire picks and prospects. As much as I'm ticked off with Kuzy, I don't want junk return in current NHL talent given he's proven he can score in the regular season and playoffs while being a center. I rather accept the changes and go full youth movement. I still think they can compete for the playoffs after all this offseason season with current talent, however to make trades for the sake of it is just wasteful, imho. This league has too many teams and too many people trying to get NHL quality assets in ever position. They should have kept the Ducks and Lightning as the last NHL expansion. I remember a coworker in the mid 90s in my hockey pool who wasn't a fan of the NHL much. We taught him the NHL rules and he used stats and scoresheets to pick his team and was quite good at it. One thing I remember him saying is, "NHL is growing too fast" and that was in 1995. Maybe the Wild as another expansion, however Columbus didn't need a franchise and I like it for being semi local, but that team isn't going to stay in town.

nobody wants junk in return, but blowing it up now is a fantasy with Ovechkin here still.

again the bar right now is a 50 pt center with upside lol….not that high (thx Kuzy).

 

[txpd]

You sure spend a lot of time using “actual points” and “actual wins” to attack other posters arguments while defending a team that has zero “actual playoff round wins” in the last three years.


Maybe this status quo approach isn’t the right approach?

As Herman Edwards said, "You play to win the game." xGF doesn't win the game. Actual goals win the game and actual wins are needed to win standings points and playoff games. Analytics tells you who you should project to win the game and who might should have won the game, but when you need a goal to win the game an actual goal or assists on someone else's goal is what you need.

I certainly am surprised with the argument that a 50pt player is better than an 80pt player.

Maybe I am wrong but dont analytics say the Caps shouldnt even make the playoffs rather than win their division?2

Edit: For instance its been suggested that Schultz, 25th in the league in points per game from defense and 29th in actual points on defense can be replace by a league minimum scrub. 5pts in a season is not as good as 40. Is it? or no.

I suppose you could make a case then that Kuzy could be replaced by a 40pt center with better xGF. Right?