Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[txpd]

perceived value!

There's that again.

 

[Calicaps]

You sure spend a lot of time using “actual points” and “actual wins” to attack other posters arguments while defending a team that has zero “actual playoff round wins” in the last three years.


Maybe this status quo approach isn’t the right approach?

Who says I'm defending them? And anyway, what precisely has 92 done in those 3 years? CCR's point was that right now, today, if we're trading Kuzy, we're trading a 50-point RS player, not a Conn Smythe candidate.

 

[twabby]

As Herman Edwards said, "You play to win the game." xGF doesn't win the game. Actual goals win the game and actual wins are needed to win standings points and playoff games. Analytics tells you who you should project to win the game and who might should have won the game, but when you need a goal to win the game an actual goal or assists on someone else's goal is what you need.

I certainly am surprised with the argument that a 50pt player is better than an 80pt player.

Maybe I am wrong but dont analytics say the Caps shouldnt even make the playoffs rather than win their division?2

Edit: For instance its been suggested that Schultz, 25th in the league in points per game from defense and 29th in actual points on defense can be replace by a league minimum scrub. 5pts in a season is not as good as 40. Is it? or no.

I suppose you could make a case then that Kuzy could be replaced by a 40pt center with better xGF. Right?

Actual goal differential does win games, and actual goal differential is predicted better by expected goal differential than actual goal differential.

Yes that is correct you are wrong, the analytics don’t say the Capitals shouldn’t make the playoffs. The analytics don’t say anything. They’re just statistics, they can’t talk. It’s up to you to make interpretations based on those statistics.

A very simple counter to points being the best or only measure of a player’s effectiveness is that points do not measure defensive impact. They don’t even measure offensive impact, especially for defensemen.

Yes that is correct you could make the case that a 40 point center might be a better fit if their impact on goal differential is better than Kuznetsov’s. In fact plenty of people are suggesting Phillip Danault, who scored at a 37 point clip this year, would be a better fit than Kuznetsov. I suggest you inform these posters that Danault isn’t a better player, because 37 < 58.

By the way Evgeny Kuznetsov scored at a 58 point rate per 82 games this past season, not 50. If you and others who have called Kuznetsov a 50 point player are going to round 58 I’d round it to 60, since 60 is closer to 58 than 50 is.

 

[twabby]

Who says I'm defending them? And anyway, what precisely has 92 done in those 3 years? CCR's point was that right now, today, if we're trading Kuzy, we're trading a 50-point RS player, not a Conn Smythe candidate.

He’s a 60 point regular season player this year.

 

[txpd]

CCR's point was that right now, today, if we're trading Kuzy, we're trading a 50-point RS player, not a Conn Smythe candidate.

That's CCR's point. The responding point, though, is that the points aren't the way to judge this player. They are clearly saying that the 50pt player is better than the 80pt player. You are underrating the value of the underlying analytics and overrating the actual points.

 

[txpd]

Actual goal differential does win games, and actual goal differential is predicted better by expected goal differential than actual goal differential.

No. 6-2 and 3-2 is the same 2pts in the standings. 2pts in the standings are actual standings points. If you want to say that the 60pt player is better than the 80pt player and that Tom Wilson and John Carlson have fake value, that's fine. Enjoy

 

[twabby]

No. 6-2 and 3-2 is the same 2pts in the standings. 2pts in the standings are actual standings points. If you want to say that the 60pt player is better than the 80pt player and that Tom Wilson and John Carlson have fake value, that's fine. Enjoy

Standings points are also predicted better by expected goal differential than by actual goal differential.

Also on a per 60 basis Evgeny Kuznetsov has outscored every Capital at 5v5 over the past 3 years! And even this year where is overall scoring was a bit down he still was their most productive center at 5v5! Saying Kuznetsov doesn’t score enough is probably the worst way you can criticize him. There are plenty of other avenues to legitimately criticize him, try those!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Actual goal differential does win games, and actual goal differential is predicted better by expected goal differential than actual goal differential.

Yes that is correct you are wrong, the analytics don’t say the Capitals shouldn’t make the playoffs. The analytics don’t say anything. They’re just statistics, they can’t talk. It’s up to you to make interpretations based on those statistics.

A very simple counter to points being the best or only measure of a player’s effectiveness is that points do not measure defensive impact. They don’t even measure offensive impact, especially for defensemen.

Yes that is correct you could make the case that a 40 point center might be a better fit if their impact on goal differential is better than Kuznetsov’s. In fact plenty of people are suggesting Phillip Danault, who scored at a 37 point clip this year, would be a better fit than Kuznetsov. I suggest you inform these posters that Danault isn’t a better player, because 37 < 58.

By the way Evgeny Kuznetsov scored at a 58 point rate per 82 games this past season, not 50. If you and others who have called Kuznetsov a 50 point player are going to round 58 I’d round it to 60, since 60 is closer to 58 than 50 is.

I assumed anyone here interacting understood that “50pt bar” meant in the 50’s for points. Get 60 and you’re a 60pt guy. He didn’t and therefor is only a 50pt guy.

done arguing semantics because the rest of your points fall short?

 

[txpd]

I assumed anyone here interacting understood that “50pt bar” meant in the 50’s for points. Get 60 and you’re a 60pt guy. He didn’t and therefor is only a 50pt guy.

done arguing semantics because the rest of your points fall short?

Oh...come on, CCR. Give him the 60pts. Round that bad boy up. 60pts still isn't 80pts and the point is that the 60pts player is better than the 80pt player.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Standings points are also predicted better by expected goal differential than by actual goal differential.

Also on a per 60 basis Evgeny Kuznetsov has outscored every Capital at 5v5 over the past 3 years! And even this year where is overall scoring was a bit down he still was their most productive center at 5v5! Saying Kuznetsov doesn’t score enough is probably the worst way you can criticize him. There are plenty of other avenues to legitimately criticize him, try those!

if he could get his head out of his ass, he would get actually ice time that would allow him to score more.

But you know this.

 

[txpd]

Standings points are also predicted better by expected goal differential than by actual goal differential.

Also on a per 60 basis Evgeny Kuznetsov has outscored every Capital at 5v5 over the past 3 years! And even this year where is overall scoring was a bit down he still was their most productive center at 5v5! Saying Kuznetsov doesn’t score enough is probably the worst way you can criticize him. There are plenty of other avenues to legitimately criticize him, try those!

I realize that you are never going to give this up. Kuzy is better than Backstrom. Ok. Suggestion, though. Hockey is played at other than 5 on 5. A goal scored at 5 on 4 or 4 on 4 counts the same. xGF doesnt put goals on the scoreboard. Ok. Ive said my piece. Time to stop. Do y0u want to talk about how John Carlson's value is fake?

Edit: When Backstrom is inducted into the Hall of Fame we can say, "Yea, but Kuznetsov was better."

 

[g00n]

Standings points are also predicted better by expected goal differential than by actual goal differential.

Also on a per 60 basis Evgeny Kuznetsov has outscored every Capital at 5v5 over the past 3 years! And even this year where is overall scoring was a bit down he still was their most productive center at 5v5! Saying Kuznetsov doesn’t score enough is probably the worst way you can criticize him. There are plenty of other avenues to legitimately criticize him, try those!

And in the playoffs over the last 3 years his ES goal differential is -5. The entire team practically has been negative in that respect. That's the problem.

Want to see Kuzy's 5v5 team rank the last 3 years IN THE PLAYOFFS?? Here you go:

You keep ignoring this key point. The regular season is an audition for the real season. Kuzy is basically 1 for 7 in that regard.

Also Backstrom being 9th on the team with almost twice Kuzy's 5v5 points/60 in the playoffs the last 3 years means....nothing? At least Kuzy beat Dowd and Eller by a few hundredths of a point, eh? But he's no Radko Gudas.

 

[twabby]

I realize that you are never going to give this up. Kuzy is better than Backstrom. Ok. Suggestion, though. Hockey is played at other than 5 on 5. A goal scored at 5 on 4 or 4 on 4 counts the same. xGF doesnt put goals on the scoreboard. Ok. Ive said my piece. Time to stop. Do y0u want to talk about how John Carlson's value is fake?

Edit: When Backstrom is inducted into the Hall of Fame we can say, "Yea, but Kuznetsov was better."

I never said Kuznetsov was better. I said Kuznetsov outscored Backstrom on a per 60 basis at 5v5 last year, and also the past 3 years combined.

You’re the one concluding from those facts that I am saying Kuznetsov is a better player. Just because points are the only way you measure players does not mean that is the only way I measure players.

 

[twabby]

And in the playoffs over the last 3 years his ES goal differential is -5. The entire team practically has been negative in that respect. That's the problem.

Want to see Kuzy's 5v5 team rank the last 3 years IN THE PLAYOFFS?? Here you go:

View attachment 452778

You keep ignoring this key point. The regular season is an audition for the real season. Kuzy is basically 1 for 7 in that regard.

Also Backstrom being 9th on the team with almost twice Kuzy's 5v5 points/60 in the playoffs the last 3 years means....nothing? At least Kuzy beat Dowd and Eller by a few hundredths of a point, eh? But he's no Radko Gudas.

I’ve already said that Kuznetsov was incredibly bad in 2018-19 and 2019-20. I have advertised this opinion repeatedly. It’s the main reason I prefer Kuznetsov to be traded for a high-ceiling upgrade, because I do not trust him to have a repeat of this season’s success on the ice next year.

This postseason he also went scoreless in 3 games after contracting COVID-19 for a second time. He could have played better, but after a lengthy absence with no practice and his conditioning likely poor I tend to not weigh those 3 playoff games too heavily.

I’ve also never said Backstrom is a worse player. I think Backstrom’s ceiling is lower due to his age and injury concerns and Kuznetsov’s flashes of brilliance in the past, but that is not the same as claiming he is a worse player. I’d appreciate it if you and others argue against opinions I hold, rather than arguing against opinions I do not hold!

Also that chart screams “trade John Carlson!” I am assured that that is not a reasonable thing to do though.

 

[Calicaps]

I’ve already said that Kuznetsov was incredibly bad in 2018-19 and 2019-20. I have advertised this opinion repeatedly. It’s the main reason I prefer Kuznetsov to be traded for a high-ceiling upgrade, because I do not trust him to have a repeat of this season’s success on the ice next year.

This postseason he also went scoreless in 3 games after contracting COVID-19 for a second time. He could have played better, but after a lengthy absence with no practice and his conditioning likely poor I tend to not weigh those 3 playoff games too heavily.

I’ve also never said Backstrom is a worse player. I think Backstrom’s ceiling is lower due to his age and injury concerns and Kuznetsov’s flashes of brilliance in the past, but that is not the same as claiming he is a worse player. I’d appreciate it if you and others argue against opinions I hold, rather than arguing against opinions I do not hold!

Also that chart screams “trade John Carlson!” I am assured that that is not a reasonable thing to do though.

I also would prefer to trade Kuz for a "high ceiling upgrade," but here on planet Earth trades usually involve pieces of comparable value. Kuz's value is low, relative to 2019 and to his AAV, which makes an upgrade extremely unlikely. So instead, I will hope for someone who has a higher give-a-shit quotient and fits well with the team and system along with maybe some cap space.

 

[txpd]

I’ve already said that Kuznetsov was incredibly bad in 2018-19 and 2019-20. I have advertised this opinion repeatedly. It’s the main reason I prefer Kuznetsov to be traded for a high-ceiling upgrade, because I do not trust him to have a repeat of this season’s success on the ice next year.

This postseason he also went scoreless in 3 games after contracting COVID-19 for a second time. He could have played better, but after a lengthy absence with no practice and his conditioning likely poor I tend to not weigh those 3 playoff games too heavily.

I’ve also never said Backstrom is a worse player. I think Backstrom’s ceiling is lower due to his age and injury concerns and Kuznetsov’s flashes of brilliance in the past, but that is not the same as claiming he is a worse player. I’d appreciate it if you and others argue against opinions I hold, rather than arguing against opinions I do not hold!

Also that chart screams “trade John Carlson!” I am assured that that is not a reasonable thing to do though.

You description of Kuzy and Backstrom paints a clear picture. Maybe you want to revise your remarks. Backstrom "struggled", suffered a serious "drop off", is no longer a 1c and so on. If you are misunderstood and you believe that Backstrom is and has been the better player, you can confirm that here.

 

[twabby]

You description of Kuzy and Backstrom paints a clear picture. Maybe you want to revise your remarks. Backstrom "struggled", suffered a serious "drop off", is no longer a 1c and so on. If you are misunderstood and you believe that Backstrom is and has been the better player, you can confirm that here.

Yes Backstrom struggled. Yes he suffered a serious drop off. Yes he is no longer a good 1C in my opinion. Yes Backstrom has been the better player. I’m not sure who is better now, especially with Backstrom’s hip being a prominent issue. I’d guess Kuznetsov has a better chance than Backstrom to be a high-end impactful 1C next year, though I don’t think either will achieve that status.

 

[txpd]

Yes Backstrom struggled. Yes he suffered a serious drop off. Yes he is no longer a good 1C in my opinion. Yes Backstrom has been the better player. I’m not sure who is better now, especially with Backstrom’s hip being a prominent issue. I’d guess Kuznetsov has a better chance than Backstrom to be a high-end impactful 1C next year, though I don’t think either will achieve that status.

Backstrom says his hip is good now. Even given this opportunity, you at best say you are not sure which is better. We have a point per game center who is not a 1c. ok.

 

[g00n]

I’ve already said that Kuznetsov was incredibly bad in 2018-19 and 2019-20. I have advertised this opinion repeatedly. It’s the main reason I prefer Kuznetsov to be traded for a high-ceiling upgrade, because I do not trust him to have a repeat of this season’s success on the ice next year.

This postseason he also went scoreless in 3 games after contracting COVID-19 for a second time. He could have played better, but after a lengthy absence with no practice and his conditioning likely poor I tend to not weigh those 3 playoff games too heavily.

I’ve also never said Backstrom is a worse player. I think Backstrom’s ceiling is lower due to his age and injury concerns and Kuznetsov’s flashes of brilliance in the past, but that is not the same as claiming he is a worse player. I’d appreciate it if you and others argue against opinions I hold, rather than arguing against opinions I do not hold!

Also that chart screams “trade John Carlson!” I am assured that that is not a reasonable thing to do though.

This is your go-to fallback strategy when the facts blow up in your face and it's why you catch shit here: "I never said X" when nobody needs to have you say EXACTLY X...falling back on weasel-word escape clauses in previous statements despite hammering the opposite point...giving exceptions for some players but not others when it comes to injuries or other factors...changing the standard of measurement to suit your narrative.

There's no conspiracy against you, it's just you're the biggest stat cherrypicker around while simultaneously kneeling at the Altar of Stat Integrity.

FYI

 

[kicksavedave]

Its gonna be a looooong offseason. I think I'll check back in around October.

 

[twabby]

Backstrom says his hip is good now. Even given this opportunity, you at best say you are not sure which is better. We have a point per game center who is not a 1c. ok.

When did he say that? The only interview I remember reading was the one where he said it has bothered him for a while and that his training is limited because of it.

That, combined with his performance toward the end of this year and the fact that he is only getting older doesn’t give me confidence that his hip is suddenly fine.

 

[twabby]

This is your go-to fallback strategy when the facts blow up in your face and it's why you catch shit here: "I never said X" when nobody needs to have you say EXACTLY X...falling back on weasel-word escape clauses in previous statements despite hammering the opposite point...giving exceptions for some players but not others when it comes to injuries or other factors...changing the standard of measurement to suit your narrative.

There's no conspiracy against you, it's just you're the biggest stat cherrypicker around while simultaneously kneeling at the Altar of Stat Integrity.

FYI

I suggest you stop inferring things that are not there. It’s not my fault you and others are arguing against points I have never made.

 

[Melkor]

That video has gone viral the last couple of days.

That entire rant is legendary

 

[Langway]

Its gonna be a looooong offseason. I think I'll check back in around October.

No news and no new ideas = rinse repeat.

 

[txpd]

Its gonna be a looooong offseason. I think I'll check back in around October.

Pieces are starting to move now. It wont be so bad.