Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[txpd]

I would keep Kuzy and put CMM on 3rd line wing if Vegas takes Sprong. And move him to center after his rookie season. We cant have Oshie back at center when guys get hurt again.

I am confident that if keeping Kuzy is an option, he will stay. If he is trading him, keeping him would have been untenable.

 

[Melkor]

Kuzy supporters will just continue to crap on any names floated and that’s fine by me…it’s why I don’t play the name game around here.

I have no opinion on possible solutions (like Dvorak, I could give a crap about him specifically)….only the larger problem.

they will continue to not contend with a 50pt 1C, so why wait?

I'm far from his supporter, I thought that was pretty obvious. Nevertheless let's look at things objectively: Kuznetsov's skill level is beyond anything Dvorak is able to showcase on the ice. That alone, regardless of if 92's shelf life is expired in DC, should make Capitals hang up the phone and look for other options. Get the proper value or let him rot here. Why make clowns out of yourselves in front of the league?

 

[Cappy76]

I'm far from his supporter, I thought that was pretty obvious. Nevertheless let's look at things objectively: Kuznetsov's skill level is beyond anything Dvorak is able to showcase on the ice. That alone, regardless of if 92's shelf life is expired in DC, should make Capitals hang up the phone and look for other options. Get the proper value or let him rot here. Why make clowns out of yourselves in front of the league?

What's proper value? He hasn't been the player he was since the cup run and if you keep holding on to him and letting him rot then his value tanks even more than it is now.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

I was at Mulligans in Salisbury playing pool with my buddies when this happened. We all started celebrating. That’s as good as it got.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm far from his supporter, I thought that was pretty obvious. Nevertheless let's look at things objectively: Kuznetsov's skill level is beyond anything Dvorak is able to showcase on the ice. That alone, regardless of if 92's shelf life is expired in DC, should make Capitals hang up the phone and look for other options. Get the proper value or let him rot here. Why make clowns out of yourselves in front of the league?

the clown show is holding onto a guy who is past his expiration date.

The real clown show is letting this drag on for more YEARS.

 

[Melkor]

What's proper value? He hasn't been the player he was since the cup run and if you keep holding on to him and letting him rot then his value tanks even more than it is now.

I'm fine with it tanking completely here rather than risking letting him shine somewhere else in exchange for some bozo. Make him a part of a package for a legit difference maker at the center position or let him rot and go back to the KHL. At least it would feel better that only the Caps saw both his good and bad sides and nobody took advantage of them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I was at Mulligans in Salisbury playing pool with my buddies when this happened. We all started celebrating. That’s as good as it got.

more like killed us in Pittsburgh, destroyed the franchise in DC.

Never forget seeing his 1st shift live on Opening night, we scored so easily……my buddies and I were sure the Cup was finally coming…..talk about Fool’s Gold.

 

[Melkor]

the clown show is holding onto a guy who is past his expiration date.

The real clown show is letting this drag on for more YEARS.

If he's done completely as a player it's one thing. It's another if he's just acting stupid and waits until they trade him. Then it's a clown show to let him go and not find a proper replacement. Even Islanders who were desperate to keep Tavares already had Barzal coming up. To just let him go for free and have zero talent of that caliber on the roster is just an icing on the cake of total incompetence shown by this management group.

 

[Corby78]

I was soo excited that summer. I had a conversation just a week earlier about how the caps had never had that legit top 5 guy. Then boom we had Jagr out of no where. It’s still hard for me to fathom how we screwed that up so bad.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I was soo excited that summer. I had a conversation just a week earlier about how the caps had never had that legit top 5 guy. Then boom we had Jagr out of no where. It’s still hard for me to fathom how we screwed that up so bad.

who knew he was such a flake?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If he's done completely as a player it's one thing. It's another if he's just acting stupid and waits until they trade him. Then it's a clown show to let him go and not find a proper replacement. Even Islanders who were desperate to keep Tavares already had Barzal coming up. To just let him go for free and have zero talent of that caliber on the roster is just an icing on the cake of total incompetence shown by this management group.

how many years should they continue to support him “acting stupid”?

His replacement doesn’t have to come from his direct trade.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I have been a long time fan of Kuzy but I think it is time to move him and Samsonov as a package. Remove the toxicity. I suspect we are not hearing the whole story, but the way Ovi screamed at Samsonov publicly I wonder if it's deeper than meets the eye.

So if Shutltz goes to SEA maybe a creative move like Kuzy and Samsonov for Jones (assuming it could be as it could be swung, given all the moving parts) allows cover for VV/MF/eventually AA to hopefully grow/blossom. In that case also move Dillon out (and I'm assuming Kempney is done as a Cap).

Up front I suspect GMBM is publicly underplaying CMM's potential and, while not perfect, a year with Eller at 2C and CMM at 3C might work. Also I suspect Protus will ascend faster than many expect, as he has done that at every step up. Leason may be in the mix sooner to as he seems to pair well with Protas.

Haven't done the calculations but this should also give more flexibility with Cap space to adjust as needed (and Backstrom is a big question mark obviously), and also depending on where Ovi's head was at wrt $ with what I suspect is a done deal.

My main point... Give the kids an opportunity to shine and if they don't (and even if they do) we are in a better Cap position to adjust over the next few years as the league wide Cap landscape evolves.

 

[txpd]

I have been a long time fan of Kuzy but I think it is time to move him and Samsonov as a package. Remove the toxicity. I suspect we are not hearing the whole story, but the way Ovi screamed at Samsonov publicly I wonder if it's deeper than meets the eye.

So if Shutltz goes to SEA maybe a creative move like Kuzy and Samsonov for Jones (assuming it could be as it could be swung, given all the moving parts) allows cover for VV/MF/eventually AA to hopefully grow/blossom. In that case also move Dillon out (and I'm assuming Kempney is done as a Cap).

Up front I suspect GMBM is publicly underplaying CMM's potential and, while not perfect, a year with Eller at 2C and CMM at 3C might work. Also I suspect Protus will ascend faster than many expect, as he has done that at every step up. Leason may be in the mix sooner to as he seems to pair well with Protas.

Haven't done the calculations but this should also give more flexibility with Cap space to adjust as needed (and Backstrom is a big question mark obviously), and also depending on where Ovi's head was at wrt $ with what I suspect is a done deal.

My main point... Give the kids an opportunity to shine and if they don't (and even if they do) we are in a better Cap position to adjust over the next few years as the league wide Cap landscape evolves.

Seth Jones?
Why would MacLellan underplay McMichael while not underplaying Fehervary or Alexeyev?
Giving the kids a chance means making roster space for them and getting rid of established NHL players to make room for them.

 

[txpd]

If he's done completely as a player it's one thing. It's another if he's just acting stupid and waits until they trade him. Then it's a clown show to let him go.

Did you know that hockey hurts when played seriously? It can hurt a lot. The guys that play the hardest feel the most pain. It takes courage to do something you know is going to hurt. Blocking a shot can feel like getting hit in the leg with a hammer. Just the act of hustling as hard as you can for an entire game hurts. So on the one hand we have a bunch of players like Oshie and Wilson and Backstrom and Ov and Carlson and Eller playing thru all that daily hockey pain plus injury and on the other hand you have Kuzy barely cares. Kuzy doesn't battle in the corner til it hurts. He doesnt go to the net and get beat on. He is no longer on the ice for defensive situations anymore and often isnt even interested in giving his best effort at his best skills. You think that his teammates are ok with that?? I sure as hell wouldnt want to stick my hand in a meat grinder for a teammate that thinks its funny. Talk about a clown show.

 

[txpd]

I was soo excited that summer. I had a conversation just a week earlier about how the caps had never had that legit top 5 guy. Then boom we had Jagr out of no where. It’s still hard for me to fathom how we screwed that up so bad.

We? That was all on Jagr. He hated Washington. He thought he was going to NY where he would be a star like Lundqvist is. In Washington nobody knew who he was. He hated it. I blame him for signing the contract to play for a team he hated in a market he hated. I blame him for admittedly quitting on the team and his teammates. That group of players hates is guts.

The Caps could have been then what they became after Ov had Jagr wanted to play hockey. Think about this above and then consider 92.

 

[searle]

Tbf if we're selling super low on Kuzy then fingers crossed another year of Lavvy (who seemed to have some influence as the season wore on, ignoring the covid stuff) and Ovi trying to talk some sense into him not wasting the last year's of his legacy will be more valuable than a trade.

...but I'm still hoping for a hockey trade that we either win or break even on...

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Seth Jones?
Why would MacLellan underplay McMichael while not underplaying Fehervary or Alexeyev?
Giving the kids a chance means making roster space for them and getting rid of established NHL players to make room for them.

The Seth Jones scenario I painted is just one possible path. Anything comes down to the senior advisors/decision makers who do this basically 24/7, and have much closer to perfect knowledge (but some is still judgement and guesswork). Then the same plays out with counterparts on other teams.

That said I like Jones and think he would thrive on a winner, regardless of fancy stats.

Hopefully Cap's brass are willing to take a chance when they think what might be a golden opportunity might present itself. Flat cap and our specific mix of circumstances weigh heavily.

I'd add GMBM might not be ready to broadcast how ready they think CMM is so they can hold more influence in any discussions around Kuzy. If other teams think we have a ready-to-go CMM they might think they can get Kuzy cheaper.

 

[txpd]

The Seth Jones scenario I painted is just one possible path. Anything comes down to the senior advisors/decision makers who do this basically 24/7, and have much closer to perfect knowledge (but some is still judgement and guesswork). Then the same plays out with counterparts on other teams.

That said I like Jones and think he would thrive on a winner, regardless of fancy stats.

Hopefully Cap's brass are willing to take a chance when they think what might be a golden opportunity might present itself. Flat cap and our specific mix of circumstances weigh heavily.

I'd add GMBM might not be ready to broadcast how ready they think CMM is so they can hold more influence in any discussions around Kuzy. If other teams think we have a ready-to-go CMM they might think they can get Kuzy cheaper.

Ok...you were talking about moving Samsonov too which suggested you might have been referring to Martin Jones.
I would think that MacLellan having fewer options gives him less leverage. Not more.

 

[Jags]

The problem of course is that a low-ceiling but more consistent player does little to help the team win a Cup when they need an elite level performance out of their 1C to allow them to win.

You need strength up the middle to win. You don't need two 1Cs to win. We've got some center talent in the pipeline. What we need right now is another solid top-6 center and a goalie.

So first of all, Kuznetsov is already a solid top-6 center. So we could stand pat at the position and be fine except for our cap problems. I just wanted to mention this up front. We don't absolutely have to part with Kuzy unless we end up needing the money and can get a serviceable replacement for him.

Another option would be to look at someone like Danault. Comparing him to Kuznetsov would be silly. They're so different it's almost like they're not playing the same sport. However, what we lose offensively we gain elsewhere. He's an elite PKer, solid defensively, and very good at the dot (lefty). He's Eller, only 4 years younger and strong on faceoffs.

We can swap Danault and Eller or their wings to find the right chemistry and matchups, and with 2 years left on Eller's deal that takes him to age 34, he's an Eller replacement if CMM emerges the way we want him to. A good investment when viewed that way, but it banks on CMM panning out while he's still got cheap years.

Or we can rent a Krejci for a year or two as a stopgap. Rentals aren't very ambitious moves, but they're low on risk.

Neither idea is sexy, but nabbing a guy in free agency would allow us to move Kuznetsov either for futures or maybe a talented young goalie -- far easier (and more realistic) than trying to package him or move him for something loftier in a buyer's market.

Yeah, if there's a blockbuster to be had that won't bust our block in the process, go for it. But that's wildly unlikely with how little we have to give. So if they feel they must move on from Kuznetsov, I'd be okay with moves like these that keep us strong at the position.

 

[twabby]

You need strength up the middle to win. You don't need two 1Cs to win. We've got some center talent in the pipeline. What we need right now is another solid top-6 center and a goalie.

So first of all, Kuznetsov is already a solid top-6 center. So we could stand pat at the position and be fine except for our cap problems. I just wanted to mention this up front. We don't absolutely have to part with Kuzy unless we end up needing the money and can get a serviceable replacement for him.

Another option would be to look at someone like Danault. Comparing him to Kuznetsov would be silly. They're so different it's almost like they're not playing the same sport. However, what we lose offensively we gain elsewhere. He's an elite PKer, solid defensively, and very good at the dot (lefty). He's Eller, only 4 years younger and strong on faceoffs.

We can swap Danault and Eller or their wings to find the right chemistry and matchups, and with 2 years left on Eller's deal that takes him to age 34, he's an Eller replacement if CMM emerges the way we want him to. A good investment when viewed that way, but it banks on CMM panning out while he's still got cheap years.

Or we can rent a Krejci for a year or two as a stopgap. Rentals aren't very ambitious moves, but they're low on risk.

Neither idea is sexy, but nabbing a guy in free agency would allow us to move Kuznetsov either for futures or maybe a talented young goalie -- far easier (and more realistic) than trying to package him or move him for something loftier in a buyer's market.

Yeah, if there's a blockbuster to be had that won't bust our block in the process, go for it. But that's wildly unlikely with how little we have to give. So if they feel they must move on from Kuznetsov, I'd be okay with moves like these that keep us strong at the position.

The problem the Capitals have had the past 3 postseasons is generating offense, namely 5v5 offense. They have generated the fewest expected goals per 60 of any postseason team over the past 3 postseasons and the 3rd fewest actual goals per 60. It’s asking way too much of your goaltender and defense to be continually defending because you can’t possess the puck and generate chances offensively.

Danault and Krejci are fine players but they don’t really generate 5v5 offense. So will the Capitals be hoping to win 2-1 games with Carlson, a defensively weak #1D, and Ovechkin, a defensive weak top line forward, eating big minutes? That strategy doesn’t really play to the strengths of their core players.

They need someone who can get Ovechkin and other wingers the puck in dangerous scoring positions. In prior years that was Backstrom and Kuznetsov but it doesn’t seem wise to rely on Backstrom to be able to do this any more given his dropoff this year and very obvious injury concerns. And I don’t really trust Kuznetsov to reproduce his 2021 season next year which is why I’m in favor of moving on from him, but only if they bring in a better playmaker and playdriver than Kuznetsov.

 

[txpd]

The problem the Capitals have had the past 3 postseasons is generating offense, namely 5v5 offense. They have generated the fewest expected goals per 60 of any postseason team over the past 3 postseasons and the 3rd fewest actual goals per 60. It’s asking way too much of your goaltender and defense to be continually defending because you can’t possess the puck and generate chances offensively.

Danault and Krejci are fine players but they don’t really generate 5v5 offense. So will the Capitals be hoping to win 2-1 games with Carlson, a defensively weak #1D, and Ovechkin, a defensive weak top line forward, eating big minutes? That strategy doesn’t really play to the strengths of their core players.

They need someone who can get Ovechkin and other wingers the puck in dangerous scoring positions. In prior years that was Backstrom and Kuznetsov but it doesn’t seem wise to rely on Backstrom to be able to do this any more given his dropoff this year and very obvious injury concerns. And I don’t really trust Kuznetsov to reproduce his 2021 season next year which is why I’m in favor of moving on from him, but only if they bring in a better playmaker and playdriver than Kuznetsov.

Expected goals per 60? How was the power play % rank? Do ppg's count? How about power play goals for/game?
Wait. Whats the spin on Kuzy now? You dont trust him to reproduce 2021? This is Kuzy was really good in 21 and just misunderstood?
This Backstrom drop off you refer to. Its not based on actual production is it? His points per game was 0.96. Its been 5 seasons since he has produced better. Kuzy has been 1.05, 0.95, 0.83, 0.71. Call me crazy but that looks like a drop off to me.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

They need someone who can get Ovechkin and other wingers the puck in dangerous scoring positions. In prior years that was Backstrom and Kuznetsov but it doesn’t seem wise to rely on Backstrom to be able to do this any more given his dropoff this year and very obvious injury concerns. And I don’t really trust Kuznetsov to reproduce his 2021 season next year which is why I’m in favor of moving on from him, but only if they bring in a better playmaker and playdriver than Kuznetsov.

I agree, but we also have to be careful not to block the young kids who may actually be able to elevate to those or other valuable roles sooner than expected. Key might be find a player it two that can provide that support for a year or maybe two tops. Or maybe better to give some of the young talent the chance first. CMM especially has shown a tendency to rise to the new level quickly. I'm sure they have Dale Hunter on the phone regularly regarding CMM.

Backstrom's hip is a potentially big factor too.

 

[txpd]

Backstrom seems to be telling the media that his hip is good.

 

[twabby]

Expected goals per 60? How was the power play % rank? Do ppg's count? How about power play goals for/game?
Wait. Whats the spin on Kuzy now? You dont trust him to reproduce 2021? This is Kuzy was really good in 21 and just misunderstood?
This Backstrom drop off you refer to. Its not based on actual production is it? His points per game was 0.96. Its been 5 seasons since he has produced better. Kuzy has been 1.05, 0.95, 0.83, 0.71. Call me crazy but that looks like a drop off to me.

The Capitals are 23rd of 25 postseason teams in goals/60 at all strengths over the past 3 postseasons. They haven’t been able to score, even when you aren’t just looking at 5v5.

Yes that’s correct Kuznetsov had a good season on the ice but his prior two seasons under Rierden were very bad, despite his point totals being higher. Based on Kuznetsov’s past and Laviolette not seeming to trust him I don’t think it’s wise to bank on Kuznetsov having a great year next year. But he at least might have it in him if the stars align, unlike a player like Krejci or Danault.

Backstrom’s dropoff was at even strength chance production, where he was the single worst player on the team in terms of expected goals for per 60. And ultimately the points started drying up toward the end of the season and in the postseason as well. He was no doubt fighting a hip injury, but is anyone confident his hip will heal next season? I’m certainly not.

Kuznetsov’s chance production went up this year, along with his chance suppression being better as well. This was probably a big reason he had the team’s best goal differential per 60 on the team. Again I don’t trust this to continue, but it’s at least worth mentioning that no player on the Capitals had better on-ice results than Evgeny Kuznetsov. If you don’t care how the team does while he’s on the ice then that’s fine! But I’m all about team success.

 

[Jags]

The problem the Capitals have had the past 3 postseasons is generating offense, namely 5v5 offense. They have generated the fewest expected goals per 60 of any postseason team over the past 3 postseasons and the 3rd fewest actual goals per 60. It’s asking way too much of your goaltender and defense to be continually defending because you can’t possess the puck and generate chances offensively.

Danault and Krejci are fine players but they don’t really generate 5v5 offense.

The Caps were 4th in goals this year. 3rd last year. 5th the year before. 3rd cumulative since the Cup win. Goals are not their problem. Go back and watch the Cup run; the authority, crispness, and passion they played with. The compete level was off the charts. We didn't need 2 1Cs to win. Backstrom played half of it with a busted hand. It was the Ellers and the DSPs and Connellys and Stephensons and Burakovskys and Vranas that stepped up at key moments to keep us in it.

The big problems since then are way more about leadership (on and off the ice) and systems. We stopped evolving, the buy-in level is damn near nonexistent. What I'm seeing rewatching the 2018 playoffs is lightyears beyond where we are now. Injuries were huge this year, but otherwise what we're lacking is fire.

I was very clear to start my last post by saying that we should keep Kuznetsov if he can get his shit together and the team is up for it. But IF we CAN'T work it out, yes, we should consider realistic options. Your ideas about Marner, Pettersson, and Hertl are masturbatory fantasies. Guys like Danault and Krejci are actually available.