Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 4
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Hivemind
We're Touched
What Calicaps said is correct, a mutual termination of contract eliminates that contract from the books and would allow them to spend that cap space elsewhere. However the Capitals are in the LTIR exemption either way, since they're already using Kempny's LTIR space to field their current roster. If Kempny does come back before the end of the regular season, they'll have to find cap space to fit him. So the only downside to keeping Lundqvist on the books would be the 50 contract limit.
txpd
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John Price
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Ovechkins Wodka
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hockeykicker
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John Price
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Not sure how many Athletic here but the article really paints a grim picture of the team's age and lack of youth. I hope Laviolette is able to get a lot out of this team and he gets a lot out of teams early in his tenure.
hockeykicker
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tenken00
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Ol' Dom Luczhzhshsjxhdhebbs always had it out for us it seems like. Well not personally, but his analytical method. Even when we won. He paints a pretty dire picture, but nothing each and every Caps fan in here doesn't know by heart. Ovie is no longer elite. Backstrom and Kuznetsov haven't been since the Cup. The defense is Carlson and the Rockettes with an underrated Orlov.
He is right about one thing though. This is the year to do it in if we are going to win another.
Carlzner
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Fancy stats have literally no way to account for a new coach and system. Any analysis of the Capitals is totally useless. They’ll make the playoffs with ease
John Price
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I skimmed over it but it had a lot of stuff about how Ovechkin was aging and "not as effective from the office" and that the bottom 6 overachieved. It's interesting how these projections take (or don't take into) account new rosters and chemistry and different systems.
Also it should be reminded that Trotz's last SC team was not analytically fit and an old roster.
Gurglesons
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I mean, he did point this out in the article. He said his model seems to be wrong about how WAS has succeeded over the past couple years and Lavi can combat what his model is saying.
Ovechkins Wodka
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tenken00
Oh it's going down in Chinatown
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The PP overall was abysmal last year, and not just for Ovechkin at his office. I know it evolves around him, but Forsythe has to do a better job getting the others involved and have them use the opportunity of everyone looking at Ovechkin. Last year in just 68 games, Ovechkin had his shot blocked on the PP about the same amount of times as it did the previous 2 years with a full season (51, 51, 57). They were sticking to Ovie at his office like white on rice the whole year. And how many times have we been griping about the PP all last season and nothing was done about it. And that's if we were able to keep it in the zone for longer than 15 seconds. Wait actually scratch that. And that's if we were even able to gain zone entry.
Maybe now that Reirden is gone and since seeing how he was the "architect" of the PP, things will be a little different this year. He's the Pens PP probl.. architect now (*cough cough @Gurglesons)
But it did seem like Ovechkin did improve on his 5v5 scoring and away from the office and closer to the net last year. Which is a huge positive although its tempered by Dom Lucazyasdingdong pointing out that his xGA has been pretty abysmal. But that's expected for the guy in his mid 30s.
The biggest takeaway in all this is Kuzy's drop off in the last few years. Dom is just confirming all of our suspicions:
Despite being only break-even in goals, Kuznetsov still delivered as much offense as usual. Generally speaking, a player being on the ice for 3.2 goals-per-60 and just 2.4 expected goals per 60 is a red flag, but that’s probably not the case for Kuznetsov. His passing and vision allow his line to routinely exceed expectations to a high degree, but what’s worrying with him is that his play with the puck also declined last season.
In 2017-18, Kuznetsov was in the 90th percentile or higher for entries, exits and shot assists. He was terrific at controlling the pace of play and keeping the puck on his stick, transporting it up the ice. In 2018-19 he saw a slight dip in shot assists and stopped being as effective at getting the puck out with control. That might explain why his defensive numbers plummeted that season and it’s something that held over this past season. On top of that was the further deterioration of the other aspects of his puck control game. His controlled entry rate dropped from 70 percent to 53 percent, and he was earning 2.4 fewer primary shot assists per 60. That probably explains why the team’s expected goals for rate with Kuznetsov on the ice dropped slightly from 2.62 to 2.42 per 60 last year.
Most alarming of all was Kuznetsov’s high danger pass rate which was once among the league’s very best at 4.3 per 60 in 2017-18 and 2.9 per 60 in 2018-19. Last year it dropped to 1.5 per 60. That skill set is the reason Washington can exceed its expected goal rate and no one bats an eye. Kuznetsov saw a massive reduction in that department compared to the past two seasons and it makes last year’s 11.6 percent on-ice shooting percentage suddenly look rather suspect. If he can’t get back to being an elite passer, it’s hard to see him keeping that rate up.
Like we all know, Lavi's biggest challenge and the key to success this year is figuring out the enigma that is Kuznetsov.In 2017-18, Kuznetsov was in the 90th percentile or higher for entries, exits and shot assists. He was terrific at controlling the pace of play and keeping the puck on his stick, transporting it up the ice. In 2018-19 he saw a slight dip in shot assists and stopped being as effective at getting the puck out with control. That might explain why his defensive numbers plummeted that season and it’s something that held over this past season. On top of that was the further deterioration of the other aspects of his puck control game. His controlled entry rate dropped from 70 percent to 53 percent, and he was earning 2.4 fewer primary shot assists per 60. That probably explains why the team’s expected goals for rate with Kuznetsov on the ice dropped slightly from 2.62 to 2.42 per 60 last year.
Most alarming of all was Kuznetsov’s high danger pass rate which was once among the league’s very best at 4.3 per 60 in 2017-18 and 2.9 per 60 in 2018-19. Last year it dropped to 1.5 per 60. That skill set is the reason Washington can exceed its expected goal rate and no one bats an eye. Kuznetsov saw a massive reduction in that department compared to the past two seasons and it makes last year’s 11.6 percent on-ice shooting percentage suddenly look rather suspect. If he can’t get back to being an elite passer, it’s hard to see him keeping that rate up.
txpd
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If the power play returns to its top 5 spot Backstrom might be in a position to outproduce Kuzy. Kuzy would need to score some goals himself
txpd
Registered User
I think the league in general had come up with a new formation to use against the Caps that worked well. To me its pretty clear.
PKs would put a man on Ovechkin and take him out of the play. The other 3 would both stand in Carlson's shoot lane and pack down on Oshie. They are giving Backstrom or Kuzy(whoever is on the half wall the shot. I saw times last season where Backstrom could skate in to the bottom of the right wing circle before anyone would challenge him.
Puck movement doesnt effect that pk because the players are mostly stationary save for shooting lanes. Backstrom and Kuzy are going to have to find a way to score or Kuzy is going to come off pp1 so they can add Tom Wilson. They then have 2 guys in front and Wilson creating chaos.
txpd
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Dom is a good read but he's historically been bearish on the Caps so this isn't surprising. By contrast, MoneyPuck has them with the 3rd best odds in the NHL to make the playoffs behind Tampa and Toronto and the 2nd best odds to win the Cup behind Tampa. Both are equally worthless, in my opinion, though it's worth noting that MoneyPuck was very high on the Caps when they won the Cup in 2018 (if memory serves).
The season will come down to Kuznetsov, roster health, and Samsonov. If we get Conn Smythe Kuznetsov we're one of the two or three favorites to win the Cup and will be rivaled by only Tampa in the East; if we get Sleepy Kuzy it's curtains.
txpd
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I guess the question is which Kuzy is the real Kuzy and which one was either playing over his head or coasting and not caring?
My take is that Conn Smythe Kuzy is closer to the player that he should be than a hot streak. Others have said I expect too much and that he isnt that good
Futures Passed
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Futures Passed
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That’s true and in the last “How we’d run the Caps” feature on the Athletic like a month ago, they barely brought it up, as if coaching wasn’t even a potential factor. What’s more, in that feature Dom has Ovechkin listed as a low level “elite top line wing” in comparison to other cup contenders. The man leads the league in goals every single year. Give me a break.
Dom also said previously that he wouldn’t have had Carlson in his top five for the Norris last season. I don’t know what he said about the Caps going into their Cup year, but I imagine he did not even have them making the playoffs.
Calicaps
NFA
Hivemind
We're Touched
Not in love with these sponsor names, but years of watching the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl and whatnot have made me numb to such things.
tenken00
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Should have kept with the brand and said the Capital One Orange Bowl. Come on now hive, stay with it!
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