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Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 3

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I’ll have to check the math again but I’m not sure there is room for both McMichael and Sprong. Might be forced to pick one. It would be huge if Sprong can be a useful roster player and score 12-15 goals at $725k. I’d lean towards him first, but if McMichael is ready, he should play. Good problem to have, but it would be great to squeeze as much as we can out of McMichael on his ELC if he is the real deal. None of this burying him on the 4th line, 6 minutes a night, scratched every other game crap. Put him in a position to succeed, and if he hasn’t shown enough to warrant that, he shouldn’t be here.

but I have said before it could be useful for him to be around the NHL atmosphere if junior hockey is cancelled. But even then hopefully they can make an arrangement with another league
 
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pman25 said:
I’ll have to check the math again but I’m not sure there is room for both McMichael and Sprong. Might be forced to pick one. It would be huge if Sprong can be a useful roster player and score 12-15 goals at $725k. I’d lean towards him first, but if McMichael is ready, he should play. Good problem to have, but it would be great to squeeze as much as we can out of McMichael on his ELC if he is the real deal. None of this burying him on the 4th line, 6 minutes a night, scratched every other game crap. Put him in a position to succeed, and if he hasn’t shown enough to warrant that, he shouldn’t be here.

but I have said before it could be useful for him to be around the NHL atmosphere if junior hockey is cancelled. But even then hopefully they can make an arrangement with another league
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Hathaway averaged 9:26 of even strenth ice time. Boyd 10:30. The Caps dont use a guy 6 mins a game. The Caps 4th line isnt a place where you bury a guy either. McMichael Dowd Panik would not be a bad line at all
 
Rayquaza64 said:
Im being told that if there is no contact, there will likely be no season. If there is no season, CHL prospects with no season will be allowed to play in the AHL, ECHL, or SPHL
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There was no minor league baseball season. Why would you assume minor league hockey?
 
txpd said:
Not relevant really. Start with the question of whether the typical AHL team can afford the testing required to play?
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I don't know the details of how things will get done, but until the AHL announces that they will officially shut down, gotta hold on to the hope that it is still happening. And the last official word that they had was a February open date.
 
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txpd said:
Not relevant really. Start with the question of whether the typical AHL team can afford the testing required to play?
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possibly, considering there is a good portion of them owned by either their team's owner or, like the bears, owned by a company
 
tenken00 said:
I don't know the details of how things will get done, but until the AHL announces that they will officially shut down, gotta hold on to the hope that it is still happening. And the last official word that they had was a February open date.
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Nobody is going to announce something negative until they have no choice. The NHL season getting pushed back further and further is my frame of reference. AHL teams will not be able to afford to play without a lot of things going right. They dont get tv money to speak of. Testing and safety and travel will be very expensive. They may not have gate. They arent announcing hoping things turn around. Do you see any signs this is going to get better?

I have hope but if I am making plans I have a fully made alternative plan already on the table and actionable.
 
Rayquaza64 said:
possibly, considering there is a good portion of them owned by either their team's owner or, like the bears, owned by a company
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If NHL teams need full gate to break even, how much do you suppose an AHL team relies on that? The only way that Hershey can afford to play and pay for the required safety is if Ted is paying for it.

Basic facts are that they virus is overrunning Europe again and they are fighting it. The US is not fighting it and it will get worse. Looks to me like a change of president in January and aggressive measures are the only way they might be able to get baseball going with a decent gate.
 
txpd said:
If NHL teams need full gate to break even, how much do you suppose an AHL team relies on that? The only way that Hershey can afford to play and pay for the required safety is if Ted is paying for it.

Basic facts are that they virus is overrunning Europe again and they are fighting it. The US is not fighting it and it will get worse. Looks to me like a change of president in January and aggressive measures are the only way they might be able to get baseball going with a decent gate.
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hershey doesnt need ted, they already have their own multi-billion dollar company, and what does baseball have to do with this? If you meant hockey, then yeah, thats why their scheduled start time is in february
 
Rayquaza64 said:
hershey doesnt need ted, they already have their own multi-billion dollar company, and what does baseball have to do with this? If you meant hockey, then yeah, thats why their scheduled start time is in february
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The Bears are based in Hershey, PA and owned by HERCO (Hershey Entertainment and Resorts Company). It is separate from the chocolate company, and given that it’s primary source of income is based on theme parks and hotels, I doubt it’s doing particularly well during COVID.
 
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CapitalsCupReality said:
Is that statement accurate, that teams need full gate just to “break even”?
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By full gate, I mean unrestricted gate as opposed to allowing 25% or something. I heard Elliot Friedman say that the teams needed to sell tickets as normal to break even. That the tv and sponsor money wouldnt come close to their expenses
 
Based off the video the Caps posted to social yesterday it looks like Ilya Samsanov, Garnet Hathaway, Carl Hagelin, and Joe Snivley are back on the ice at MCI.
 
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CapitalsCupReality said:
Is that statement accurate, that teams need full gate just to “break even”?
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This puts it better than I did.
"According to several sources, a few owners have suggested to Bettman that the league might be better off financially if it shuts down next season, since playing in empty arenas could be crippling to the bottom line. The NHL is still very much a gate-driven league in comparison to a league like the NFL, which draws most of its revenue from media rights. Bettman responded that the NHL can't lose a season because it's too damaging in the long term, as the league has learned before in lockout seasons. So it's a safe bet that there will be some version of the NHL next season, though it's going to look different than what we're used to."
NHL 2020-21 season plans: Latest on format, timeline and challenges
 
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txpd said:
This puts it better than I did.
"According to several sources, a few owners have suggested to Bettman that the league might be better off financially if it shuts down next season, since playing in empty arenas could be crippling to the bottom line. The NHL is still very much a gate-driven league in comparison to a league like the NFL, which draws most of its revenue from media rights. Bettman responded that the NHL can't lose a season because it's too damaging in the long term, as the league has learned before in lockout seasons. So it's a safe bet that there will be some version of the NHL next season, though it's going to look different than what we're used to."
NHL 2020-21 season plans: Latest on format, timeline and challenges
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so many unknowns. I’d like to know specifics. Like, How much gate revenue is needed for the league to break even as a collective? And I’m not asking you, just curious on the real data vs articles with speculation.

A completely no-gate season would indeed be crushing for many of these billionaires in smaller markets and ones with pockets not so deep.

I’m curious when player salaries will pressed hard for cuts. The players with the buyout proof deals are still getting theirs....but everyone else is at risk IMO.
 
I would think everyone would be “ok” in sharing the losses (meaning players along w coaches and management), however the challenge is determining what metric to use force the salary reductions. Can’t use team P&L as it’s always subjective, as each team runs itself as it sees fit.

any global NHL P&L would also be seen dubiously as most will believe the owners would paint as grim a picture as possible.

fairest way, IMO, is to pay the players a percentage of their agreed upon annual salary, based on regular season scheduled games. So say it’s a 60 game season. 60/82 = 73.17%. So each player receives 73.17% of that years salary.

I know there are things like performance bonuses etc that come into play so it would be far more complicated than my baseline example — but I’d use that as a starting point.
 
The players have already agreed to a 10% deferral. I doubt they’d be willing to take another haircut, especially since 20% of the 90% remaining goes into escrow too.
 
Ridley Simon said:
Escrow doesn’t mean they don’t get it, it’s just deferred? Or am I wrong
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It's all based on hockey related revenue. Escrow is paid out by the players and at the end of the season it's doled out to make the 50/50 split of "Hockey Related Revenue" even between the owners and the players. So at the end if the season players salaries total out to be 52% of HRR then the difference is paid out to the owners from escrow to make revenue even. If the players salaries make up 46% of HRR then they get that money back from escrow to take them up to 50% and make it even with the owners. Based on the likelihood of big losses by the teams this year, the players probably won't see any escrow come back their way in 20-21.
 
Capagonia said:
The players have already agreed to a 10% deferral. I doubt they’d be willing to take another haircut, especially since 20% of the 90% remaining goes into escrow too.
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they may have no options other than....another “trim” or lose the whole head of hair....
 
How Lundqvist feels about joining Ovechkin on the Caps

And so long as Ovechkin remains one of the top goal-scorers in the NHL, Washington certainly has a chance. Lundqvist is willing to do whatever it takes to make that happen.

Well, except one thing.

“The one thing I told [Ovechkin], though, is I won’t do any one-time drills with him," Lundqvist said. "His shot is just way too hard, so I already took myself out of that one. ... Ovi with all the years playing against him, I definitely look forward to being on the same side now.”
 
txpd said:
Hathaway averaged 9:26 of even strenth ice time. Boyd 10:30. The Caps dont use a guy 6 mins a game. The Caps 4th line isnt a place where you bury a guy either. McMichael Dowd Panik would not be a bad line at all
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We have a new coach so I’m not sure that’s applicable anymore. I’ll admit I’m not all that familiar with how Laviolette deploys his lines. But no problems with McMichael on line 4 if he is as you say getting regular ice time, 9-10 minutes.
 
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