Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 3

[txpd]

Carlson, Dillon, Jensen can all do basically everything Siegs does and more. Arguably Orlov too, and probably Fehervary as well pretty soon. Dillon can do the heavy lifting of replacing Siegs' PK time, with Orlov and/or Fehervary filling in the rest. He's hardly irreplaceable.

Carlson and Jensen play the right. Many think Jensen is on the trade block. Orlov even without a primary pp job has never been a primary penalty killer. Fehervary isnt even an established NHL player yet. Dillon can not do his own pk shift and Siegenthaler's pk shift. They would be the only 2 LD penalty killers on the team.

 

[txpd]

Im not advocating moving Siegs, just that he’s likely a guy that can’t do much better than the qualifying offer. He has no leverage

I’d say his most valuable asset is being on the penalty kill, and Dillon, Orlov, Jensen, TVR can all do that. He’s also a 3rd pairing D right now, a one year deal at the minimum gives them another year to evaluate and see where Fehervary will fit in. I’m fine with Siegenthaler and would prefer to play him this year over Fehervary. I don’t think Fehervary is ready

I am impressed by how many are confident on using a right defenseman on the left when our experience with that has been a complete disaster. Orlov isnt a penalty killer for a reason. Fehervary isnt even on the team right now

 

[DCRedhawk21]

I am impressed by how many are confident on using a right defenseman on the left when our experience with that has been a complete disaster. Orlov isnt a penalty killer for a reason. Fehervary isnt even on the team right now

I agree with you on this, but I also agree with the first half of the post you quoted that they really shouldn't have to offer up a major contract to Siegenthaler. He doesn't have much actual leverage and they are tight against the cap. Further, they historically have not had much issue playing hardball with players who are not arbitration eligible and don't have the point totals to support a bigger contract (even if the guy played a significant role on the team - see Karl Alzner).

 

[pman25]

I am impressed by how many are confident on using a right defenseman on the left when our experience with that has been a complete disaster. Orlov isnt a penalty killer for a reason. Fehervary isnt even on the team right now

Yes, I agree. I want to keep Jonas for most of the reasons you claim anyway, I just wouldn't spend a lot of cap on him, at least not yet. My original point is that he can and should be signed to his QO without much resistance. That's what i would do, but if for some reason Jonas wasn't on the team, Dillon and Orlov can fill the LD PK role.

 

[Kalopsia]

Carlson and Jensen play the right. Many think Jensen is on the trade block. Orlov even without a primary pp job has never been a primary penalty killer. Fehervary isnt even an established NHL player yet. Dillon can not do his own pk shift and Siegenthaler's pk shift. They would be the only 2 LD penalty killers on the team.

If they trade Jensen the calculus obviously changes, but as is Orlov and Fehervary both got close to a minute per game last season. Orlov in particular should see his PK time tick back up since he's presumably losing his PP time to Schultz. He played 1:59 a night the year the Caps won the Cup, no reason he can't do that again. I'd figure with Siegs gone, Dillon and Jensen would get around 3 minutes a night, Orlov and Carlson around 2, and Fehervary fills in on extended kills or when one of the above is in the box. It's a small sample size, but in the 3 games Fehervary played in February he got 4:19 on the PK, which tells me they think Fehervary's capable of playing that role.

I'm much more worried about the PK if Jensen goes, cause even setting aside how good he is on the PK, replacing his minutes is a lot uglier. He and Gudas were the primary right side PKers last year, and we'd be replacing them with Schultz (doesn't PK at all) and TVR (1:14 a night in Carolina). If you think having Dillon and Orlov as the only LD PKers on the team is a problem, then having only Carlson and TVR as RD PKers is an even worse problem. The Caps would be in a situation where their primary PKers are both LD, so they'd either need to have one of Carlson or TVR seriously ramp up their PK time to match or have one or two guys playing on their off side, making clearances harder. No good option there.

 

[txpd]

Yes, I agree. I want to keep Jonas for most of the reasons you claim anyway, I just wouldn't spend a lot of cap on him, at least not yet. My original point is that he can and should be signed to his QO without much resistance. That's what i would do, but if for some reason Jonas wasn't on the team, Dillon and Orlov can fill the LD PK role.

I think he has more leverage than no leverage. He plays a role they are thin on at a salary cap level they are tied to. His leverage isnt in salary because they dont have any to give him. His leverage is in term. I would not be shocked to see him get a 2 year deal

 

[txpd]

If they trade Jensen the calculus obviously changes, but as is Orlov and Fehervary both got close to a minute per game last season. Orlov in particular should see his PK time tick back up since he's presumably losing his PP time to Schultz. He played 1:59 a night the year the Caps won the Cup, no reason he can't do that again. I'd figure with Siegs gone, Dillon and Jensen would get around 3 minutes a night, Orlov and Carlson around 2, and Fehervary fills in on extended kills or when one of the above is in the box. It's a small sample size, but in the 3 games Fehervary played in February he got 4:19 on the PK, which tells me they think Fehervary's capable of playing that role.

I'm much more worried about the PK if Jensen goes, cause even setting aside how good he is on the PK, replacing his minutes is a lot uglier. He and Gudas were the primary right side PKers last year, and we'd be replacing them with Schultz (doesn't PK at all) and TVR (1:14 a night in Carolina). If you think having Dillon and Orlov as the only LD PKers on the team is a problem, then having only Carlson and TVR as RD PKers is an even worse problem. The Caps would be in a situation where their primary PKers are both LD, so they'd either need to have one of Carlson or TVR seriously ramp up their PK time to match or have one or two guys playing on their off side, making clearances harder. No good option there.

Orlov's pp time has never really had an effect on his PK time. When Niskanen was here he was pk2 and not Orlov. Yes he did 1:59 because the Caps only had 4 legit defensemen til they got Kempny and even then Kempny didnt kill. In the playoffs Orpik's shtoi went way up and Orlov's way down.

I agree on Jensen, though I think if he is traded that the idea is that Carlson's defensive role on the team is going back up. Reirden cut back Carlson's pk time for wear and tear. I think Lavy is going to put Carlson back to the team's top defensive right d which means primary pk duty. I think he may lead the league in mins your you will see him cut his pp1 shift down to just the first half.

If they keep Jensen, I dont know why they got TVR

 

[racingmoose]

Carlson, Dillon, Jensen can all do basically everything Siegs does and more. Arguably Orlov too, and probably Fehervary as well pretty soon. Dillon can do the heavy lifting of replacing Siegs' PK time, with Orlov and/or Fehervary filling in the rest. He's hardly irreplaceable.

Agreed. I don't get the fascination with Siegs except as a cheap 6 or 7 if you have nobody else to fill those roles.

 

[tenken00]

If someone who watched a lot of Hershey games can answer, how was Fehervary used on the PK? One of the consistent main PKers?

 

[Kalopsia]

Orlov's pp time has never really had an effect on his PK time. When Niskanen was here he was pk2 and not Orlov. Yes he did 1:59 because the Caps only had 4 legit defensemen til they got Kempny and even then Kempny didnt kill. In the playoffs Orpik's shtoi went way up and Orlov's way down.

Orpik was at 3:07 a night in the regular season and 3:15 in the postseason, while Orlov dropped from 1:59 to 1:31, so some of Orlov's time went to Orpik but not a huge amount. It was Carlson and Niskanen who had the big redistribution, with Niskanen going from 2:43 to 3:07 and Carlson from 2:38 to 1:48. Anyway, Dillon's our new Orpik, so no reason they can't replicate that split of responsibilities.

I agree on Jensen, though I think if he is traded that the idea is that Carlson's defensive role on the team is going back up. Reirden cut back Carlson's pk time for wear and tear. I think Lavy is going to put Carlson back to the team's top defensive right d which means primary pk duty. I think he may lead the league in mins your you will see him cut his pp1 shift down to just the first half.

I could see that happening, but I really hope the plan isn't to force a 30 year old Carlson to play 26 minutes a night with what's probably gonna be a compressed schedule. This seems like a year where being able to spread the minutes around will be more important than ever.

If they keep Jensen, I dont know why they got TVR

He's a cheap veteran 7th D. They were always gonna need to sign one since the only option they had was Fehervary, and he shouldn't be sitting in a press box. Just because he's better than the typical 7th D doesn't mean he's guaranteed a starting spot.

 

[hb13xchamps]

We’re really going to say Siegs should stick around because he’s good on the PK? What about the other 95% of the game or more at even strength?

Siegs is what he is. A bottom pairing dman who can penalty kill. He’s not overly physical and isn’t great with the puck on his stick. He’s entirely expendable and his minutes on the PK can be replaced among the other LD (Fehervary, Dillon and Orlov)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think he has more leverage than no leverage. He plays a role they are thin on at a salary cap level they are tied to. His leverage isnt in salary because they dont have any to give him. His leverage is in term. I would not be shocked to see him get a 2 year deal

they like him, term they want....to the extent it makes sense....it’s all about fitting in his #...if low, he’s going to only want a year. And he’s right IMO.....take one year and play yourself into a better deal next time around.

 

[txpd]

Orpik was at 3:07 a night in the regular season and 3:15 in the postseason, while Orlov dropped from 1:59 to 1:31, so some of Orlov's time went to Orpik but not a huge amount. It was Carlson and Niskanen who had the big redistribution, with Niskanen going from 2:43 to 3:07 and Carlson from 2:38 to 1:48. Anyway, Dillon's our new Orpik, so no reason they can't replicate that split of responsibilities.



I could see that happening, but I really hope the plan isn't to force a 30 year old Carlson to play 26 minutes a night with what's probably gonna be a compressed schedule. This seems like a year where being able to spread the minutes around will be more important than ever.



He's a cheap veteran 7th D. They were always gonna need to sign one since the only option they had was Fehervary, and he shouldn't be sitting in a press box. Just because he's better than the typical 7th D doesn't mean he's guaranteed a starting spot.

The question is, how did the mins to Orpik/Carlson Orpik get distributed? I am pretty confident that the Caps didnt use 2 right shot defensemen at the same time.

The question is spread the minutes how? Saving minutes on Carlson by splitting the pp time 50/50 rather than the current 75/25 means taking some easy mins off of him and leaving the hard mins. If Schultz is playing with Orlov, that is not a defensive pair. Schultz isnt going to pk. If they trade Jensen, TVR isnt going to be the minute leader right shot defense penalty killer. It has to be Carlson.

On the 7th d, who has the Caps 7th d been the last two or three seasons? Its been someone in Hershey. The Caps rarely carried one on the roster. I dont expect that to change now. Which is why I expect Jensen to be moved. Fehervary becomes the 7d playing at Hershey

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We’re really going to say Siegs should stick around because he’s good on the PK? What about the other 95% of the game or more at even strength?

Siegs is what he is. A bottom pairing dman who can penalty kill. He’s not overly physical and isn’t great with the puck on his stick. He’s entirely expendable and his minutes on the PK can be replaced among the other LD (Fehervary, Dillon and Orlov)

Until he develops more, and I think that’s what the Caps see in him right now. He’s learning to and they want him to bring more physical IMO. Fever can replace him when Fever proves he can stick. Orlov is not the guy I want adding heavy PK on a Cup hopeful.

I could see them shipping Siege if they are finally committed to Fever.

 

[Raikkonen]

Well, either they are going in with 12f and 7d to bank some cap space (after signing Siege).
Or they need to trade someone.

Jensen is bad candidate for that due to all have been said here lately, so it should be Panik.

Good numbers for 4th line TOI (which you can try to sell some other GM to), almost no real contribution to offense I mean, change 3RW Panik to Sprong - what will change? Not much for Caps (my guess).

If Sprong fails then there is an opening for Pinho, CMM, Malenstyn, trade or smth.

2ndary scoring could get worse on paper after trading Panik but in reality there was no such thing last playoffs even with Panik.

So trading Panik is lesser evil than trading Jensen.

Spicifically Im worried about Carlson's health. With Jensen they can always let him heal properly at least. Schultz-TVR-who? Right side is a death spell.

 

[Raikkonen]

On the 7th d, who has the Caps 7th d been the last two or three seasons? Its been someone in Hershey. The Caps rarely carried one on the roster. I dont expect that to change now. Which is why I expect Jensen to be moved. Fehervary becomes the 7d playing at Hershey

They didnt carry Lewington because there was no need to.
Now if TVR is #7 he will be claimed from waiver probably and thus should be carried on the roster permanently.

 

[tenken00]

I really wish for Siegenthaler to improve his physical game. At 6'3 220 (190 cm 100 kg), he's not exactly a small kid. He blocks shots well with his big frame, but I don't remember him using that body much to physically impose his will on other players - even ones much smaller than him. If he could get a bit of a mean streak, that would help the team and himself out so much.

 

[Raikkonen]

Odds of Siege being a Cap next Autumn are slim to none.
If there is a taker Caps should trade Siege and will be alright just fielding Fever even if a year early. Physically he's ready at least.

 

[txpd]

They didnt carry Lewington because there was no need to.
Now if TVR is #7 he will be claimed from waiver probably and thus should be carried on the roster permanently.

I didnt suggest that the plan is for TVR to be sent to the AHL. Just the opposite. That signing TVR combined with the team approach of keeping their 7 off the daily NHL roster indicates the plan is to trade Jensen. That makes Fehervary the 7, puts him in Hershey and gives him all the injury fill in games

 

[Kalopsia]

The question is, how did the mins to Orpik/Carlson Orpik get distributed? I am pretty confident that the Caps didnt use 2 right shot defensemen at the same time.

Not sure I understand what your question is here?

The question is spread the minutes how? Saving minutes on Carlson by splitting the pp time 50/50 rather than the current 75/25 means taking some easy mins off of him and leaving the hard mins. If Schultz is playing with Orlov, that is not a defensive pair. Schultz isnt going to pk. If they trade Jensen, TVR isnt going to be the minute leader right shot defense penalty killer. It has to be Carlson.

Having Schultz complicates things, since as you said, it means the 2nd pair can't be a shutdown pairing and the Dillon-Carlson pairing will have to pick up at least some of the slack. Jensen helps out with Carlson's minutes by allowing him to stay the secondary PK option, which saves Carlson about 1:30 a night, and by making the 3rd pairing one that doesn't need to be sheltered. Personally, I'd have way more faith in a Fehervary-Jensen 3rd pairing than a Siegenthaler-TVR 3rd pairing. If they do trade Jensen though then yes, Carlson playing the 26 minute a night, all-around defenseman role seems inevitable.

On the 7th d, who has the Caps 7th d been the last two or three seasons? Its been someone in Hershey. The Caps rarely carried one on the roster. I dont expect that to change now. Which is why I expect Jensen to be moved. Fehervary becomes the 7d playing at Hershey

The last two years it's been a mishmash of guys as they tried to find playing time between Siegs, Bowey, Djoos, and Fehervary. Prior to that they had Taylor Chorney for three years, so it wouldn't be the first time MacLellan has carried a 7th on the NHL roster.

 

[Calicaps]

The slingshot is a pp only technique and from what I remember its mostly used when the pk is set up and waiting. After a clean clear as a for instance.

As for Schultz I am not sure how much impact he would have on that because the Caps use pp2 very little

I have a sneaking suspicion that the biggest change on the PP will be less time for PP1. Those players are old and important at ES. They are stale and overused and losing effectiveness with the man advantage. I think a big part of the Schultz acquisition is to finally establish a useful PP2 squad. Mix it up. Reduce the ice time for 8, 19, 77, 74. Give opponents something else to worry about and game plan for. And expect the GF% for both units to improve as a result. I may be entirely wrong about this, but it's been in my head since the signing. Basically I think Lavi wants to be less predictable and have more options.

 

[txpd]

I have a sneaking suspicion that the biggest change on the PP will be less time for PP1. Those players are old and important at ES. They are stale and overused and losing effectiveness with the man advantage. I think a big part of the Schultz acquisition is to finally establish a useful PP2 squad. Mix it up. Reduce the ice time for 8, 19, 77, 74. Give opponents something else to worry about and game plan for. And expect the GF% for both units to improve as a result. I may be entirely wrong about this, but it's been in my head since the signing. Basically I think Lavi wants to be less predictable and have more options.

Call me crazy, but opposing teams will take that scenario all day. If you are offering to take the top ppg scorer in the league and the top pp assist player in the league off the ice, I am taking that.

Its also a fact that Trotz had tried this approach. Anytime you have a power play where you need to a goal, you take Ovechkin off the ice early? You leave the top players on more and more because those are the guys that get it done.

I hear you about the being less predictable part, but if you are saying that taking Ovechkin, Carlson and Backstrom off the ice plays are part in being unpredictable or having Ovechkin on the ice in a place where he cant shoot, I would say that would fail

 

[txpd]

Not sure I understand what your question is here?



Having Schultz complicates things, since as you said, it means the 2nd pair can't be a shutdown pairing and the Dillon-Carlson pairing will have to pick up at least some of the slack. Jensen helps out with Carlson's minutes by allowing him to stay the secondary PK option, which saves Carlson about 1:30 a night, and by making the 3rd pairing one that doesn't need to be sheltered. Personally, I'd have way more faith in a Fehervary-Jensen 3rd pairing than a Siegenthaler-TVR 3rd pairing. If they do trade Jensen though then yes, Carlson playing the 26 minute a night, all-around defenseman role seems inevitable.



The last two years it's been a mishmash of guys as they tried to find playing time between Siegs, Bowey, Djoos, and Fehervary. Prior to that they had Taylor Chorney for three years, so it wouldn't be the first time MacLellan has carried a 7th on the NHL roster.

What I am saying is that defining how those increased mins on the pk are created? How does LD2's min drop by 30% and RD1 and 2's increase without the either of the RD playing LD? My guess is there were game situations that created that. Orpik often didnt come off the ice.

As for your 3rd pair suggestions, I would have to know what the system and assignment was. I trust Siegenthaler way more than Fehervary on a pk assignment.

 

[Calicaps]

Call me crazy, but opposing teams will take that scenario all day. If you are offering to take the top ppg scorer in the league and the top pp assist player in the league off the ice, I am taking that.

Its also a fact that Trotz had tried this approach. Anytime you have a power play where you need to a goal, you take Ovechkin off the ice early? You leave the top players on more and more because those are the guys that get it done.

I hear you about the being less predictable part, but if you are saying that taking Ovechkin, Carlson and Backstrom off the ice plays are part in being unpredictable or having Ovechkin on the ice in a place where he cant shoot, I would say that would fail

Except last year the vaunted first unit was operating at 19.4%. Now maybe it was all Reirden's doing and Lavi can get them back to 2018 form. But part of that could be less time. If 2 units can score at say 23% vs. 1 at 20%, then 2 is better. That's all.

 

[txpd]

Except last year the vaunted first unit was operating at 19.4%. Now maybe it was all Reirden's doing and Lavi can get them back to 2018 form. But part of that could be less time. If 2 units can score at say 23% vs. 1 at 20%, then 2 is better. That's all.

What I learned about last season was that teams were more aggressive about just denying Ovechkin. If you move Ovechkin to a less dangerous spot or move off of a pp designed for Ovechkin to score or just take him off the ice, the opposition wins.

The first question you have to ask yourself is if Ovechkin is your first/primary weapon on the pp or not? I cant imagine Laviolette caving in to the pk pressure and going away from Ovechkin. The challenge is what do you so away from Ov in that 4 on 3 scenario to make it mathmatically advantagious to stop taking away Ov? I am just guessing but I think we are going to see more Oshie and Wilson on PP1 and create more pressure in front of the net and collapse the pk diamond down to the crease.