Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

[sprongshowhky]

Hopefully hear about Sprong soon.

 

[tenken00]

If they need cap space to keep this player, they will move salary to create the space they need. Like the Caps did when they traded Johansson.

Further, if the guy is generally known to be free to walk, dont you think the competition throughout the league for him will be significant and by definition expensive?

Ya, I dont know what Tampa decides to do. I dont even think Tampa knows themselves yet as they are still in the playoffs. The longer they stay in the bubble, the less time they have to make decisions. Well, if they win the Cup, it might not matter much anyways.

 

[hb13xchamps]

How they manage their cap is up to them, but like the Capitals have done, they will move players around to make the cap fit. Losing a good player rfa to a good contract offer sheet for next to nothing, makes no sense at all. Tampa isnt going to do that

Possibly, but all of the big contracts that Tampa signed included a NMC or NTC. They give them out like candy down there. Killorn is the only player making significant money that has a modified NTC and he can list 16 teams he won't accept a trade to. I think Tampa knew this had to be their year and that's why they used a lot of draft capital to acquire players at the TDL. They easily could lose a good player to an offer sheet.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Tampa could always dump Stamkos to keep all their RFA

If they win a cup without him why not dump him and keep the Team for another run.
You don’t think a team like the Habs would take Stamkos. Tampa May have to trade a pick for the salary dump but it’s not a big deal.

 

[tenken00]

That's a good way of looking at it.

Why not offer Cernak 2 years @ 4.1m, he gets decent money for a couple of years, we get 2 years of a player for a 2nd rounder, he gets to potentially walk in 2 years/we trade him for assets/we resign him/someone else offer sheets him.


Yes, could come back to bite us with Vrana etc., but we're talking about Ovi's twilight years, so I for one say f*** everyone that isn't us, happy to deal with the consequences when we suck anyway in 3-4 years.

Well, he would have to agree to sign the offer. I dont know if 2 years would be enough for him, but I'm definitely no expert and its a weird salary cap freeze world right now.

 

[hb13xchamps]

Tampa could always dump Stamkos to keep all their RFA

If they win a cup without him why not dump him and keep the Team for another run.
You don’t think a team like the Habs would take Stamkos. Tampa May have to trade a pick for the salary dump but it’s not a big deal.

He has a full NMC so he'd have to okay where he's going

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

He has a full NMC so he'd have to okay where he's going

Well that does make things more difficult and with Stevie Y out of Tampa who knows

 

[txpd]

Ya, I dont know what Tampa decides to do. I dont even think Tampa knows themselves yet as they are still in the playoffs. The longer they stay in the bubble, the less time they have to make decisions. Well, if they win the Cup, it might not matter much anyways.

I think these NHL front offices can do more than one thing at a time. I also think most of them were working hard during the shutdown on something. Possible to likely salary cap scenarios among them. Including conversations with the agents involved.

Were this MacLellan I would expect that he would already have some options on the table. Salary cap options that he has worked out with Fishman. Young player options he has worked out with his scouting staff. Options for where he can move a range of players. The specifics and the decisions they decide to make as a result remain adjustable but I would guess that Tampa Bay has 3 or 4 routes they like to deal with their situation

 

[searle]

Well, he would have to agree to sign the offer. I dont know if 2 years would be enough for him, but I'm definitely no expert and its a weird salary cap freeze world right now.

some players might prefer a shorter deal firstly to get out from under the cloud of covid and be able to go after big money after a couple more years of development and also if they get to full free agency then they have more control over their destiny.

It's bad asset management, but again, 2-3 seasons for a 2nd round pick is still good value, and it's the kind of bad asset management that tampa are unlikely to do, so the right player might fancy it

 

[hb13xchamps]

Well that does make things more difficult and with Stevie Y out of Tampa who knows

If I were Stamkos, I wouldn't be giving up that Tampa lifestyle unless I was going to a legit contender. Even then, I don't think I'd give up the warmth for the majority of the year

 

[tenken00]

I think these NHL front offices can do more than one thing at a time. I also think most of them were working hard during the shutdown on something. Possible to likely salary cap scenarios among them. Including conversations with the agents involved.

Were this MacLellan I would expect that he would already have some options on the table. Salary cap options that he has worked out with Fishman. Young player options he has worked out with his scouting staff. Options for where he can move a range of players. The specifics and the decisions they decide to make as a result remain adjustable but I would guess that Tampa Bay has 3 or 4 routes they like to deal with their situation

Oh ya, definitely execs are already planning. I meant more like final player evaluation determinations and stuff like that. Which players do we want to keep?

 

[txpd]

Possibly, but all of the big contracts that Tampa signed included a NMC or NTC. They give them out like candy down there. Killorn is the only player making significant money that has a modified NTC and he can list 16 teams he won't accept a trade to. I think Tampa knew this had to be their year and that's why they used a lot of draft capital to acquire players at the TDL. They easily could lose a good player to an offer sheet.

Almost every offseason there are teams with salary cap crunches that fans think are going to take the pipe as a result. Every off season there are RFAs that fans think are going to rake it in and kill a team's cap situation and including those players that hold out, that never happens.

I would not hold my breath for that happening this time and if it did i would not expect that player to choose the Capitals given all the options they would have

 

[txpd]

Oh ya, definitely execs are already planning. I meant more like final player evaluation determinations and stuff like that. Which players do we want to keep?

Final choices? No. A foundation of choices to work with, yes.

 

[Kalopsia]

By definition and offer sheet is NEVER a good bang for your buck.

Wrong bang. The only way you get a player with an offer sheet is with a max plus contract for the player. Otherwise the Lightning match it. The 2nd rounder is beside the point. How much contract is going to have to be in play for TB to walk away with a 2nd round pick? After taking that much cap space off the table with the offer sheet contract, how many roster players are going to have to be moved to make room?

Under normal circumstances I'd agree with you about offer sheets needing to be so high to keep the other team from matching that they don't make sense, but Tampa is heading into the worst salary cap crunch I can remember. As others have said, right now they have 5.3M in cap room for 20-21 with 15 players signed. They need to re-sign Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak, and then add 2 more forwards and 2 more defensemen to fill out the roster. It's literally impossible. On top of that, their options to move out salary are almost entirely dependent on getting guys to waive full NTC/NMCs. Out of the 10 players they have under contract with a cap hit of greater than 2M, only 3 don't have a full NTC or NMC - Vasilevski, Point, and Killorn. Vasilevski and Point are obviously going nowhere, so Killorn is the only easy option. Even then, he's still got a 16 team no trade list and his cap hit is just 4.45M. The other guys making more than 1M are Coleman at 1.8M (really good value), Pacquette at 1.65M (probably a goner), and Coburn at 1.7M (full NTC, not going anywhere).

Basically, if the Lightning matched an offer sheet on Cernak for 4M, they'd probably lose Cirelli and Sergachev unless they convinced multiple players like Johnson, Palat, and Gourde to waive their NTCs. Cernak is the least important of their 3 big RFAs, so I don't see them making that trade.

As for making room on the Caps' side, if they move out Kempny like you've suggested it's only a net increase of 1.5M. Assuming Fehervary is brought up, that leaves the Caps with 6.6M in cap room with 11 F, 5D, and 2G under contract. The cap space works out just fine, and they're getting a much better 2RD than they'd get if they signed someone a UFA for less than 4M per year.

 

[tenken00]

some players might prefer a shorter deal firstly to get out from under the cloud of covid and be able to go after big money after a couple more years of development and also if they get to full free agency then they have more control over their destiny.

It's bad asset management, but again, 2-3 seasons for a 2nd round pick is still good value, and it's the kind of bad asset management that tampa are unlikely to do, so the right player might fancy it

Hmm. If I was a young guy like Cernak (right now only 23 years old) with talent, I would definitely bet on myself and try to score a big payday when things become better in a couple of years. Too bad I just turned halfway to 80 now and with negative talent. Not sure what he wants though.

 

[searle]

Almost every offseason there are teams with salary cap crunches that fans think are going to take the pipe as a result. Every off season there are RFAs that fans think are going to rake it in and kill a team's cap situation and including those players that hold out, that never happens.

I would not hold my breath for that happening this time and if it did i would not expect that player to choose the Capitals given all the options they would have

I live in the UK so I often forget that Washington is a pretty lame place to live compared to most of the league - must definitely play against them.

If I'm pitching to my wife a gig in Washington vs. a gig in Florida/Nashville/LA/etc..... that's a toughie

 

[hb13xchamps]

Almost every offseason there are teams with salary cap crunches that fans think are going to take the pipe as a result. Every off season there are RFAs that fans think are going to rake it in and kill a team's cap situation and including those players that hold out, that never happens.

I would not hold my breath for that happening this time and if it did i would not expect that player to choose the Capitals given all the options they would have

Read @Kalopsia post below. He said it perfectly.

Also, why wouldn't he pick Washington? Contending team with a definite need at RD where he'd play big minutes. Seems like a no brainer to me

 

[tenken00]

I live in the UK so I often forget that Washington is a pretty lame place to live compared to most of the league - must definitely play against them.

If I'm pitching to my wife a gig in Washington vs. a gig in Florida/Nashville/LA/etc..... that's a toughie

It's not so bad here DC's reputation has gone up a lot since the 2000s.

 

[Marshall]

If Hanafin is available, as The Athletic suggests, that's a player I'd love the Caps to take a look at.

 

[Kalopsia]

Almost every offseason there are teams with salary cap crunches that fans think are going to take the pipe as a result. Every off season there are RFAs that fans think are going to rake it in and kill a team's cap situation and including those players that hold out, that never happens.

I would not hold my breath for that happening this time and if it did i would not expect that player to choose the Capitals given all the options they would have

I think you're underselling the Caps as a destination. If Cernak wants to stay on a team that's competitive, I could definitely see the Caps being his best option. Looking at the other top contenders, Boston, Colorado, and Dallas are set down the right side, St. Louis and Vegas are in their own less severe cap crunches where they could lose key players (Pietrangelo and Lehner). In the next tier, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Carolina, NYR and Philly don't need a RD, Toronto doesn't have the cap room, NYI don't have their 2021 2nd so they'd have to offer a bigger contract and lose their 2021 1st and 3rd, Edmonton doesn't have their 2021 2nd or 3rd so they can't do any remotely reasonable contract.

The decent teams I could see having the means, motive, and opportunity to offer sheet Cernak are Nashville, Calgary (but only if they let both Brodie and Hamonic walk), and Winnipeg, assuming none of them have internal caps due to the pandemic (all three are on the list of teams who've cut employee pay fwiw). Nashville's the only one I could see as potentially being a more appealing team than the Caps.

 

[PB12]

How much does the front office trust Samsonov? The kid is talented we all know that. But does front office believe after a handful of starts in the NHL, that he is ready to carry the load with our current defense? Or do we need to get him a safety net(another top 4 defenseman) via FA or Trade?

 

[Langway]

Almost every offseason there are teams with salary cap crunches that fans think are going to take the pipe as a result. Every off season there are RFAs that fans think are going to rake it in and kill a team's cap situation and including those players that hold out, that never happens.

1.) Flat cap and 2.) the team is still playing and may be right up until mere days before the draft. Their GM is assuredly prepared to make moves but they're in a tough situation. The NTCs for Killorn & Johnson could greatly complicate moving them and/or getting much of a return. Even if they manage to move both with no salary coming back it may be difficult to complete their roster as-is. Getting Cirelli, Sergachev & Cernak to each sign bridge deals would be ideal but a number of factors open them up for the possibility of offer sheets if not squared away rather quickly. A team could, in theory anyway, target one and then the other. If that sort of thing is going to happen this would be the off-season for it.

We'll see how their situation goes but the flat cap and the institution of internal budgets alone will cause a lot of movement. Arizona will reportedly be moving a lot of money out. Many other teams are up against it, be it Anaheim, St. Louis, Vegas or Toronto. Pittsburgh reportedly wants to clear out space for free agency. Many RFAs may go unqualified by teams in order to avoid arbitration raises and gamble on being re-signed for less. There's an opportunity for Washington, if they play their cards right, to pick up some value. They may need to move out their first round pick via trade in the search for more immediate value. Whoever they pick at 25 is probably not going to leapfrog McMichael or MF/AA in the next year or two. They could pick a right-handed winger or D that may help sooner given the lack of internal options but trading for a readymade option at the right cap hit may be preferable, esp. given their window. Cernak pretty much checks all of the boxes for a young Niskanen type. He doesn't carry quite as much offense but is otherwise about as solid as it gets for a potential partner for Orlov. Among RFA RD whose cap hits fit it's him, Myers or Bear with TBL's situation the most tenuous.

 

[Melkor]

I hear ya. Let him walk. Right? Better yet, can we trade him now and not lose him for nothing?

No, let him rob the club and kill all purpose of hiring Laviolette and all this "window is still open" talk. With 12M Ovechkin on a payroll that window is getting loudly shut for good.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

How funny would it be to offer sheet all the Tampa RFA

 

[txpd]

I think you're underselling the Caps as a destination..

No. The Caps are from what Ive heard one of the best jobs in the NHL. I am saying that its unlikely that this player will be left unsigned by the Lightning, unlikely that the Caps will be willing to put forth an offer sheet that both forces TB to not match and outbid every other NHL team interested.

The Caps are a salary cap strapped team and going offer sheet doesnt make a lot of sense