Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 1

[Sam Spade]

I like how every post that suggests we don't re-sign Beagle has to start with "I love Beagle but..." because otherwise people will jump down your throat.

Beagle can and will get 3x2.5 elsewhere. Let him chase the money. Sink or swim with Stephenson.

I don't want Beagle to stay. He hasn't made a lot of money over his career. He should cash in now and set his family up for life.

I said before last season started this was Beagle's last year here.

If the Caps don't have any player in the org or on the team now that can replace Jay Beagle they are in big trouble.

p.s. I love Jay Beagle though.

 

[txpd]

I’d like to see more point production before locking Wilson in at $5 million a year. He’s a good player and I was wrong about him but I think the Caps can come in at $3.5-4 million a year for 5 years and it would probably be acceptable to Wilson. He might be worth $5 million but these are the contracts you look for bargains on rather than paying market value for.

The Caps are looking for bargains wherever they can find them. His point production, however, is pretty evident to me. He played much of the early part of the season on the 4th line. The next chunk he was the fixer for all three top lines when they went sour. He was a solid 3rd in even strength points in the playoffs even with the 3 games he missed.

Without Connolly being there, he would be getting pp2 minutes and a few points from that. If wanting to see more point production before locking him in is your desire, then you would think that Wilson's agent would then ask for a 2 year deal and then the Caps get hit harder when he produces the points you are waiting to see

 

[txpd]

I said before last season started this was Beagle's last year here.

If the Caps don't have any player in the org or on the team now that can replace Jay Beagle they are in big trouble.

p.s. I love Jay Beagle though.

You clearly don't appreciate the value of Jay Beagle then. You seem to think he is some dime a dozen 4th liner. That is a terrible mistake. There is a reason that he has been on this team for so long while the actual dime a dozen 4th liners come and go.

Yes, they are in trouble if they lose him. No, its not to be expected that there is another Beagleish player in the organEYEzation. There may be a half dozen in the entire league

 

[Sam Spade]

You clearly don't appreciate the value of Jay Beagle then. You seem to think he is some dime a dozen 4th liner. That is a terrible mistake. There is a reason that he has been on this team for so long while the actual dime a dozen 4th liners come and go.

Yes, they are in trouble if they lose him. No, its not to be expected that there is another Beagleish player in the organEYEzation. There may be a half dozen in the entire league

I appreciate him at 1.5/1.75 per no 4th liner is worth more, especially a 33 year old one. Maybe I am under-appreciating what he brings, but there is a salary cap and hard decisions need to be made.

I hope he is willing to stay here but to give him more than 2 mil per is lunacy.

 

[chilimac]

You clearly don't appreciate the value of Jay Beagle then. You seem to think he is some dime a dozen 4th liner. That is a terrible mistake. There is a reason that he has been on this team for so long while the actual dime a dozen 4th liners come and go.

Yes, they are in trouble if they lose him. No, its not to be expected that there is another Beagleish player in the organEYEzation. There may be a half dozen in the entire league

This x 1,000. Yes, it still amazes me that folks cant appreciate all that he brings to this franchise. You wont find all of 'it' on pretty colored flow charts and pie charts that stat-geeks compile in somebody's basement, but 'it' is there to see ... if you watch the game, in my opinion. And i say this without any ill intent on my part, seriously, but you folks that cant see 'it', are missing a beautiful part of the game.

 

[Hivemind]

You shouldn't pay UFA prices for a player who's only negotiating an RFA contract. If the only way to lock up Wilson to extended term is to pay a full UFA price, I wouldn't mind them taking him to arbitration and trying again next year (which will be the final year of his RFA negotiations). I would prefer a deal for Wilson with medium term (4-5 years), but I wouldn't give away all the leverage they have to get that done.

 

[um]

I really don't see why we should pay Wilson more than Eller, especially since he's an RFA. Also 1 good year (playing next to and elite LW and C may I add) isn't enough to justify a huge payday, if Wilson wants a Brooks Laich payday he can take a 1 year deal and prove himself again.

 

[Sam Spade]

This x 1,000. Yes, it still amazes me that folks cant appreciate all that he brings to this franchise. You wont find all of 'it' on pretty colored flow charts and pie charts that stat-geeks compile in somebody's basement, but 'it' is there to see ... if you watch the game, in my opinion. And i say this without any ill intent on my part, seriously, but you folks that cant see 'it', are missing a beautiful part of the game.

Why can't a fan appreciate it but still not want to overpay it?

Here is a question for people that love Beagle, are you giving him 2.5 to 3 mil per for two or three more seasons?

And you can joke about colored charts all you want but Beagle's advanced numbers, beyond F/O's are pretty garbage (yes I know they are D zone starts) and the Caps PK (his specialty) was 16th this season.

Jay Beagle NHL Advanced Statistics (All) | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[g00n]

Has anyone calculated Wilsons RFA comparables in this thread? No time to read the other 400+ posts.

IMO his boxcar stats are going to keep his arbitration value down somewhat, but the Caps know he's worth more than that. He will have more ESG than a lot of big names but not sure that helps in arbitration.

They will probably offer him something above what he might receive in arbitration via comparable analysis. Maybe $500k more.

 

[895]

I think Wilson would get destroyed in arbitration. "Living rent free in the heads of other NHL players and fanbases" is worth nothing to an arbitrator even if it might have real life value.

Considering this our window, it might make sense to do that so we can win as many Cups as possible in the next 2 years.

 

[g00n]

I think Wilson would get destroyed in arbitration. "Living rent free in the heads of other NHL players and fanbases" is worth nothing to an arbitrator even if it might have real life value.

Considering this our window, it might make sense to do that so we can win as many Cups as possible in the next 2 years.

I think there is a clause about contributing to the success of the team that isn't boxcar oriented (or fancy stats which are now in RFA arb, iirc).

IMO they love the guy and will throw some cash at him, probably with term. I don't think it ever gets close to arbitration, as both sides know that will be a slap to Wilson which they won't want going forward. TW was consistently the hardest working player on the squad all year and was a monster contributor in a SC run. You don't reward a guy like that by nickel and diming him. You probably pay him with term close to what you think his ceiling will be.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

You shouldn't pay UFA prices for a player who's only negotiating an RFA contract. If the only way to lock up Wilson to extended term is to pay a full UFA price, I wouldn't mind them taking him to arbitration and trying again next year (which will be the final year of his RFA negotiations). I would prefer a deal for Wilson with medium term (4-5 years), but I wouldn't give away all the leverage they have to get that done.

You should pay the player the minimum he'll take to re-sign.

True RFA contracts were gone long ago.

 

[Sam Spade]

If they lock up Wilson for max years at anywhere between 4 and 4.5 I'm doing cartwheels.

I was looking at the contract the Pens gave Rust yesterday, similar numbers, both PK, neither gets PP time, Wilson is way more physical and gets more ice time. Rust is two years older, he got 3.5 for four years.

 

[discobob]

I like how every post that suggests we don't re-sign Beagle has to start with "I love Beagle but..." because otherwise people will jump down your throat.

I love Jay Beagle, but he sucks... I mean he's a great guy, but dump his sorry ***. A guy you love to have on your team, just not this team. Hes a great veteran; why is he so old?

Jay Beagle has body odor!!!

 

[txpd]

I appreciate him at 1.5/1.75 per no 4th liner is worth more, especially a 33 year old one. Maybe I am under-appreciating what he brings, but there is a salary cap and hard decisions need to be made.

I hope he is willing to stay here but to give him more than 2 mil per is lunacy.

He is not a 4th liner. His ice time says that he is top 9. He just skates 5 on 5 with the 4th line. He plays 4 on 4 when other higher line players don't. I don't think more than $2m will be required, but we will see.

Yes, there is a salary cap and limitations as a result. Just be sure you are slotting a player in the right category. To call Beagle a 4th liner undervalues him quite a bit

 

[txpd]

I really don't see why we should pay Wilson more than Eller, especially since he's an RFA. Also 1 good year (playing next to and elite LW and C may I add) isn't enough to justify a huge payday, if Wilson wants a Brooks Laich payday he can take a 1 year deal and prove himself again.

1.Because Wilson is a much harder player to find than Eller.
2. He has had more than one good year. Someone paying attention would see the consistant improvement in his game from season to season. I would expect further improvement in his production next season if only because he wont play the first 20 games of the season on the 4th line.
3. Are you saying that being 3rd on the team in even strength points in the playoffs is purely a result of leaching off 8 and 92? I hope not. Kuznetsov had so much more room to maneuver because Wilson created the space. Wilson creates the turnovers. Wilson does the puck retrieval. There is a reason that Wilson plays where he does and not someone else.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I love Jay Beagle, but he’s a 4th liner. Sorry that’s seen as a slight. Truth hurts.

He gets more ice time because we had some wingers who had their asses almost stapled to the bench many nights and his teams play. Valuable Swiss army kinda guy, great leader, but I thought his play dropped off some this year early. $2 mil might be a luxury....he would be one of the last signings for me just for $ reasons.....love to have him back at a price that makes sense, but he’s going to have to give some to stay IMO.

 

[stanleycaps18]

If they lock up Wilson for max years at anywhere between 4 and 4.5 I'm doing cartwheels.

I was looking at the contract the Pens gave Rust yesterday, similar numbers, both PK, neither gets PP time, Wilson is way more physical and gets more ice time. Rust is two years older, he got 3.5 for four years.

I think that is a fair comparison and value. I hope TW agrees.

 

[um]

1.Because Wilson is a much harder player to find than Eller.
2. He has had more than one good year. Someone paying attention would see the consistant improvement in his game from season to season. I would expect further improvement in his production next season if only because he wont play the first 20 games of the season on the 4th line.
3. Are you saying that being 3rd on the team in even strength points in the playoffs is purely a result of leaching off 8 and 92? I hope not. Kuznetsov had so much more room to maneuver because Wilson created the space. Wilson creates the turnovers. Wilson does the puck retrieval. There is a reason that Wilson plays where he does and not someone else.

Im saying Wilson doesn't have that much leverage. He shouldn't get paid for consistent improvement and lack of PP time, he should get paid for what he brings right now, which is right now a two-way 30-40 point guy. And he's only had one season as that guy.

 

[895]

Centres just have more icetime than wingers. Calling Jay Beagle a third liner because he has the 9th most ice time amongst forwards is weird to me. Almost every 4th line centre in the NHL is a third liner by that definition. Jay Beagle isn't special in that regard.

 

[Holtbyisms]

You clearly don't appreciate the value of Jay Beagle then. You seem to think he is some dime a dozen 4th liner. That is a terrible mistake. There is a reason that he has been on this team for so long while the actual dime a dozen 4th liners come and go.

Yes, they are in trouble if they lose him. No, its not to be expected that there is another Beagleish player in the organEYEzation. There may be a half dozen in the entire league

I haven't laughed so hard since we won. Thank you sir

 

[Corby78]

Get Wilson/beagle/Kempny signed for 10 or less and I’m happy

 

[strungout]

Get Wilson/beagle/Kempny signed for 10 or less and I’m happy

Wilson: 5per
Kempny: 3per
Beagle: 2per

Done!

 

[artilector]

NHL needs to introduce a special "captain intangibles" cap exception -- e.g, you can choose 1 player, who is not top-6/top-4/whatever in minutes or scoring, and pay him an arbitrary sum of money without it counting against the cap. That way the Caps could pay Beagle 5M, no problemo.

 

[Vilica]

Has anyone calculated Wilsons RFA comparables in this thread? No time to read the other 400+ posts.

IMO his boxcar stats are going to keep his arbitration value down somewhat, but the Caps know he's worth more than that. He will have more ESG than a lot of big names but not sure that helps in arbitration.

They will probably offer him something above what he might receive in arbitration via comparable analysis. Maybe $500k more.

A quick fiddle through CapFriendly and some sorting gives me this list of players, some of whom are more relevant than others. These are all players in the same situation as Wilson, their 3rd contracts after a small bridge following their ELC.

Wayne Simmonds, Colin Wilson, Andrew Shaw, Jakob Silfverberg, Vladislav Namestnikov (has not signed a deal yet), Marcus Johansson, Kyle Palmieri, Chris Kreider, Alex Killorn, Craig Smith.

The range in cap hit is from ~5%-7%, with Shaw providing the low bound and Simmonds the high bound. Most all of them actually have a 20 goal season or multiple 20 goal seasons when they signed, as compared to Wilson's limited point production. That should suppress his arbitration earnings substantially. If Wilson signs a Simmonds deal for same percentage of cap, the hit will be ~5.25m. A Shaw deal would come in at ~4.25m. If I'm BMac I try and get him at 5-6yrs at less than 6% of cap.