Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 1

[Jags]

Why no to 3 million? He would be the 2nd cheapest d man on our roster currently

The median value of a spot on a 23-man NHL roster is $3.45m. In a league with a meaningful cap that forces parity and competition and routinely pays its best players 2 to 3 times the median, being able to afford those types of players means getting everyone else as far below the median as possible.

Is Kempny worth 3m? Sure, to a team with oodles of cap space that can pair him with the right guy.

But for us, the defending Cup champs with 3 very well-regarded LHD prospects in our system, Kempny's spot is trickier to calculate. If any of those kids has it in them to leapfrog Kempny on the depth chart, suddenly you're paying 4D money to a 5th/6th/7th defenseman. So if he wants 3m for one year, great. Sign me up. Gives us a year to fully evaluate the trajectories of Djoos/Sieg/LuJo.

If he wants 3m for more than 2 years, that's a deal I only make under two circumstances...

• Interest from other teams make me feel very good about his potential trade value, or...
  
  
• If I have very little faith in the futures of our LHD prospects.

If he wants 3m and real term I would let him go.

 

[Hivemind]

Don't overrate prospects. None of the LD prospects in the system are worth clearing space for at this point, especially not top 4 space. I fully support allowing younger players to get a chance to crack the roster, but that's not the same thing as immediately pencilling them into those roles. You don't let a good Top 4 defenseman walk now because one of your prospects might be as good as that Top 4 defenseman later.


2 years x $3M is post-buyout Dan Girardi money.
2 years x $3M is 37 year-old Ron Hainsey money.
2 years x $3M is nothing in today's UFA market.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Is Ridley Simon secretly GMBM?

 

[Jags]

Don't overrate prospects. None of the LD prospects in the system are worth clearing space for at this point, especially not top 4 space. I fully support allowing younger players to get a chance to crack the roster, but that's not the same thing as immediately pencilling them into those roles. You don't let a good Top 4 defenseman walk now because one of your prospects might be as good as that Top 4 defenseman later.

Yeah, that's not what I said. I made it clear that I'm fine with him here short-term to give us time to evaluate the kids, and that if he walks we'll have to get a replacement. Never once mentioned any of the kids playing in our top 4 next year, just that they may have the potential and that their time to prove it is coming soon. So best to not over-commit cash and term for Kempny when there will be alternatives via free agency and trade if he decides to take a more lucrative offer.

If he wants 1.75-2.5, great. Good with that at any term. If we wants 2.5+ for anything more than 2 years, I would have to know two things that only our GM knows -- One, that Kempny at that price will have trade value, and/or two, that we're less than optimistic about Djoos/Sieg/Lujo/Alexeyev's ability to make some noise at the NHL level any time soon.

 

[Hivemind]

Yeah, that's not what I said. I made it clear that I'm fine with him here short-term to give us time to evaluate the kids, and that if he walks we'll have to get a replacement. Never once mentioned any of the kids playing in our top 4 next year, just that they may have the potential and that their time to prove it is coming soon. So best to not over-commit cash and term for Kempny when there will be alternatives via free agency and trade if he decides to take a more lucrative offer.

If he wants 1.75-2.5, great. Good with that at any term. If we wants 2.5+ for anything more than 2 years, I would have to know two things that only our GM knows -- One, that Kempny at that price will have trade value, and/or two, that we're less than optimistic about Djoos/Sieg/Lujo/Alexeyev's ability to make some noise at the NHL level any time soon.

I didn't mention them playing in the top 4 next year, either. But that doesn't change my point. You don't clear out space for them, even 2-3 years down the line. If they push their way onto the roster, you deal with that roster jam at that point. It's a good problem to have. You don't walk away from Kempny because you have a handful of guys playing in Hershey who might be ready in 12 to 36 months.

Prospects are called prospects for a reason. There's no such thing as a surefire prospect, and the ones that the Capitals have aren't even tier 1 prospects. The Capitals are competing now, not in a rebuilding phase. The prospects will and should have to earn their spots on the roster, just like the young kids did on this year's team. Remember that the Capitals went out and grabbed DSP this past off-season and invited Chiasson and Jokipakka to training camp. Taylor Chorney was still around, as well. Djoos and Bowey had a relatively easy route to roster spots this year, but that was mostly due to a cap crunch and the expansion draft opening up spots that the Capitals couldn't afford to fill. And even then they still needed to beat out Chorney and Jokipakka for jobs. And ultimately the team was better later on, once Kempny and Jerabek were brought in (pushing Bowey and Chorney out of the picture and giving Orpik and Djoos more comfortable roles). The task was much tougher for forwards, and Chandler Stephenson started the season in Hershey. Chiasson beat out a number of the Hershey kids for a roster spot. DSP stayed in Washington despite signing a 2-way deal. Nathan Walker ended up losing his roster spot later in the season.

You can find similar stories on the Penguins teams that won the Cup the past two years. Guys like Guentzel, Sheary, and Rust had to outplay others to earn their roster spots.

This has nothing to do with "optimism" about the prospects, and everything to do with not passing up a good opportunity to lock up a 27 year-old Top 4 D at a reasonable price.

 

[Drakon]

I understand that his defense has improved to the point that he was doing really well in his own zone in Detroit. I cant think of a Caps player that I have hated since 68. I guess I spent all that I had on him.

I always felt a bit bad for Green. Dude got hit high along the boards a ton, and got no help from the officials, ever. No chance he wasn't playing concussed at least a couple of seasons while he was here.

 

[Hivemind]

Green also paved the way for Erik Karlsson. I don't think Karlsson gets his first Norris (2012) without Green helping start the conversation about the stereotypes of offensive defensemen a few years before that.

 

[BondraEra]

That BMac finally got an Hfboards account?
That tangibles >> intangibles?

But listen, really, which of these are surprising?

Trotz and the org were clearly (politely) sick of each other. I'm not sure I've seen a more nonchalant collective shrug from interviewed players about their winning coach leaving -- coupled with praise for the assistant/coach in-waiting.

Orpik's contract was pretty clearly one of only two options to clear out the necessary cap space. Would you really much prefer to lose Bura for 1 year of Orpik? And even that may not have been enough, depending on the Caps' plans.

Beagle can still return -- but he's also the typical example of a role player UFA that winning teams tend to lose in a cap crunch.

Finally, despite being "dumped on", I think 95% of the posters here would have no problem with all these guys returning on reasonable terms.

You articulated my feelings perfectly.

 

[Silky mitts]

Looking at the Miller and Rust deals, I am thinking 5x$5 looks about right for Willy.

I’m scared to go 5 years on Willie. I don’t know if he’s even a 30 point guy without 8 and 92, the other team gets away with more stuff when you have him because he’s marked by the refs, it’s possible that the NHL will actively try to make him and guys him less useful like how 7 footers who don’t shoot 3s are suddenly useless in the NBA, and they’ve locked up so many guys for so many years with so many fewer concerns.

 

[Langway]

I think it's fair to say there are no prospects in the system that will be gifted a roster spot or regular role until perhaps waiver status comes into play. Either that or a cap crunch where they've partially established themselves as a legit replacement. Everyone from now on is likely going to be required to take someone else's job. It's a new vibe and one that should allow for a more strenuous work ethic from these guys across the board. They know what they're up against. They know the challenges they'll have to overcome to make this team in the near future. It helps that there's no real elite talent that will find themselves utterly dominating their competition level whether it's the AHL or junior among the more recent draftees. I'd guess that it's rather intentional that they've chosen to target deep organizational D depth and then a lot of more blue collar forwards. Not to say that won't change at next year's draft but for now it should be a very driven, workmanlike group looking to impress whenever they have the opportunity.

I trust the front office and coaching staff re: Kempny and their overall blueline deceisions going forward. It'll be sorted out as needed.

 

[Calicaps]

That cuts both ways. The other way to look at it is that this is a guy that phones it in all year and doesn't step up till playoff time. If you're a great player year-round that finds another gear in the postseason, great. But let's not confuse DSP with the legacy of Justin Williams. DSP is a guy who is routinely, utterly unremarkable during the season, then earns his spot when it really counts.

Bring it year-round, I'll give you nice year-round money.

Again, that's just the other way of looking at it. I see the merit in both perspectives, which is why I have a more measured take on DSP and will not be crushed if he moves on. I see the upside, but there's plenty of downside, too.

Sure, you pay him more if he's also a RS performer, but postseason >> regular season. I'm not saying offer him a long-term deal, but if he can bring that kind clutch playoff performance, he deserves to be paid.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Is Grant really higher valued around the league than Beagle?

I think plenty of GMs will see him as a 15-15 3C. That's more valuable cap space-wise than an elite 4C.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

If DSP is gone I'll be sad in the same way I was when Bradley, Hendricks, Ward, etc. left, he's a fan favorite but he is ultimately replaceable.

 

[Portable Mink]

I see Kempny as being a Brian Pothier kinda deal but with the inflation of the salary cap.

Pothier was 4 years at 2.5.

Kempny id go 3x3

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

On the Kempny subject, I think once you get Wilson done, you've got no more FAs that you have to have back. Everyone else, you set a firm ceiling for the role, and dont move it, Kempny included.

He's a solid 4D, but not somebody you make an exception for.

 

[RandyHolt]

Planning on going to Fan Fest this weekend to get a photo with the cup. Any ideas what parking will look like at 8 or 9am?

Super excited, bringing my 14mo old son, cant wait to show him the photo in like 10 years when he can appreciate it.

You should be fine. The line for the cup will probably be more painful than the parking. I always drive on mob scene day, and somehow always get a parking spot. Its like an 8 level parking garage (I think a few levels are under construction though). Park near the elevators perhaps. Just don't bother to try to drive up to the highest level. Don't want to jinx it - but you should be fine. We should be fine. I am planning on going too.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Green is my least favorite Capital of all time. I absolutely DESPISED him on our team

His defense would single handily cost us games in the playoffs

It really wouldn't. Such an unfairly attacked player.

 

[txpd]

I’m scared to go 5 years on Willie. I don’t know if he’s even a 30 point guy without 8 and 92, the other team gets away with more stuff when you have him because he’s marked by the refs, it’s possible that the NHL will actively try to make him and guys him less useful like how 7 footers who don’t shoot 3s are suddenly useless in the NBA, and they’ve locked up so many guys for so many years with so many fewer concerns.

Or....we don't know that Kuznetsov is the player we saw this season without all the space that Wilson provided. You act like Wilson is a one trick pony. First, he draws far more penalties than he takes. 2nd. He is some power play ice time away from being an all situations player. He was 3rd on the team in even strength points in the playoffs. This includes his pass to Vrana in game 5. I don't think you give Wilson remotely the credit he deserves or recognize the position that he holds in the Caps locker room

 

[Portable Mink]

I'm not worried about 5 years for Willy.

He is the Canadian version of Ovi from a bull in a chinashop/strength/neverbreaks perspective.

 

[discobob]

3 x 3 seems fair for Kempny

He'll be playing with Carlson, who will make him look good. If one of our young bucks can take his place after a year, his contract should be tradeable.

We'd be signing an asset that could be flipped for picks, just don't give him a NMC/NTC.

 

[Silky mitts]

Or....we don't know that Kuznetsov is the player we saw this season without all the space that Wilson provided. You act like Wilson is a one trick pony. First, he draws far more penalties than he takes. 2nd. He is some power play ice time away from being an all situations player. He was 3rd on the team in even strength points in the playoffs. This includes his pass to Vrana in game 5. I don't think you give Wilson remotely the credit he deserves or recognize the position that he holds in the Caps locker room

I think he’s a good player but it’s not just that he improved this year he had a lot of things go his way and we’d be buying high. Every goal in the playoffs assisted by Kuzy and or Ovy. Ten assists in the playoffs - one on the Vrana breakaway, one for Ovy, one on an empty net, 7 secondary assists. 7% shooting % the last 2 years, 11.4% this year.

 

[Portable Mink]

Willy is a very very good player.
He is super fast, extremely strong, hits like almost no one in the league, has great hockey IQ, is a tremendous PK, great endurance, great locker room guy, scores like a young power forward and has only gotten better every year hes played. 35 points with next to no PP time and is only 23 years old.

And he scared the be-jesus out of everyone he played against in the playoffs & put them off their games all whilst these opponents are trying to put it all on the line to win. Still Willy intimidated them.

Lock. that. up.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The median value of a spot on a 23-man NHL roster is $3.45m. In a league with a meaningful cap that forces parity and competition and routinely pays its best players 2 to 3 times the median, being able to afford those types of players means getting everyone else as far below the median as possible.

Is Kempny worth 3m? Sure, to a team with oodles of cap space that can pair him with the right guy.

But for us, the defending Cup champs with 3 very well-regarded LHD prospects in our system, Kempny's spot is trickier to calculate. If any of those kids has it in them to leapfrog Kempny on the depth chart, suddenly you're paying 4D money to a 5th/6th/7th defenseman. So if he wants 3m for one year, great. Sign me up. Gives us a year to fully evaluate the trajectories of Djoos/Sieg/LuJo.

If he wants 3m for more than 2 years, that's a deal I only make under two circumstances...

• Interest from other teams make me feel very good about his potential trade value, or...
  
  
• If I have very little faith in the futures of our LHD prospects.

If he wants 3m and real term I would let him go.

If he stays partnered w Carlson (or gets beaten by a kid and becomes 3rd pair)....I have to imagine he’s going to shine no matter what.

Seasoned, relatively inexpensive, veteran Cup winning D-men will be easy to trade. Especially at 3m.

As long as the term isn’t more than 3years (heck, even 4), he will be easy to trade. They won’t deal him this season, perhaps not even next. So it would be with 2 or less years left. And he’d still be under 30.

Not a worry at all.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yeah, that's not what I said. I made it clear that I'm fine with him here short-term to give us time to evaluate the kids, and that if he walks we'll have to get a replacement. Never once mentioned any of the kids playing in our top 4 next year, just that they may have the potential and that their time to prove it is coming soon. So best to not over-commit cash and term for Kempny when there will be alternatives via free agency and trade if he decides to take a more lucrative offer.

If he wants 1.75-2.5, great. Good with that at any term. If we wants 2.5+ for anything more than 2 years, I would have to know two things that only our GM knows -- One, that Kempny at that price will have trade value, and/or two, that we're less than optimistic about Djoos/Sieg/Lujo/Alexeyev's ability to make some noise at the NHL level any time soon.

He will have trade value unless he poops the bed. Cannot base a deal on that.

 

[RandyHolt]

You know whats wrong with DSP? Nothing.

He just clogs the pipe. 4R/LW will be one Shane Gersich. Put that in your pipe. And you know the rest.

Ok, Shane or Nathan Walker. Do we have a RH energy guy at the ready? Maybe Pinho.