Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 1

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I do like the young, tougher Knuble comparison for Wilson, though Wilson's got better wheels. If he can learn to play with the saavy that Knuble did around the net, he'll be a really good player in the league for a long, long time.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I didn't mention them playing in the top 4 next year, either. But that doesn't change my point. You don't clear out space for them, even 2-3 years down the line. If they push their way onto the roster, you deal with that roster jam at that point. It's a good problem to have. You don't walk away from Kempny because you have a handful of guys playing in Hershey who might be ready in 12 to 36 months.

Prospects are called prospects for a reason. There's no such thing as a surefire prospect, and the ones that the Capitals have aren't even tier 1 prospects. The Capitals are competing now, not in a rebuilding phase. The prospects will and should have to earn their spots on the roster, just like the young kids did on this year's team. Remember that the Capitals went out and grabbed DSP this past off-season and invited Chiasson and Jokipakka to training camp. Taylor Chorney was still around, as well. Djoos and Bowey had a relatively easy route to roster spots this year, but that was mostly due to a cap crunch and the expansion draft opening up spots that the Capitals couldn't afford to fill. And even then they still needed to beat out Chorney and Jokipakka for jobs. And ultimately the team was better later on, once Kempny and Jerabek were brought in (pushing Bowey and Chorney out of the picture and giving Orpik and Djoos more comfortable roles). The task was much tougher for forwards, and Chandler Stephenson started the season in Hershey. Chiasson beat out a number of the Hershey kids for a roster spot. DSP stayed in Washington despite signing a 2-way deal. Nathan Walker ended up losing his roster spot later in the season.

You can find similar stories on the Penguins teams that won the Cup the past two years. Guys like Guentzel, Sheary, and Rust had to outplay others to earn their roster spots.

This has nothing to do with "optimism" about the prospects, and everything to do with not passing up a good opportunity to lock up a 27 year-old Top 4 D at a reasonable price.

Not sure how we can really argue with any of this?

Unless Kempny is demanding more than 4 years and/or more than 3m, you lock him up.

 

[Hivemind]

I would give Kempny more than $3M.

 

[hockeykicker]

I would give Kempny more than $3M.

im speculating, but if gmbm was going to, the deal would be done

 

[RandyHolt]

Having Carlson back, ironically with less cap room makes me more willing to slightly overpay Kempny, because they have proven cup winning chemistry already. Without Carlson, I wouldn't want to go more than 3 for Kempny. It's just a tiny sample size we have on him. Talk about luck though, coming to the caps and getting paired up with a top RD en route to a cup win. He just wants his slice of the pie. This is his big payday.

I know Alan May also liked Jerabek. I think he is our backup plan.

 

[txpd]

I think he’s a good player but it’s not just that he improved this year he had a lot of things go his way and we’d be buying high. Every goal in the playoffs assisted by Kuzy and or Ovy. Ten assists in the playoffs - one on the Vrana breakaway, one for Ovy, one on an empty net, 7 secondary assists. 7% shooting % the last 2 years, 11.4% this year.

Is it unusual for a forward to have one of the other forwards on his line assist on his goals? you are seriously using that against him? I recall several of those secondary assists. they looked like Kuznetsov's secondary assist on the Vrana goal. In other words the scoring play doesn't happen without that assist.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think it's fair to say there are no prospects in the system that will be gifted a roster spot or regular role until perhaps waiver status comes into play. Either that or a cap crunch where they've partially established themselves as a legit replacement. Everyone from now on is likely going to be required to take someone else's job. It's a new vibe and one that should allow for a more strenuous work ethic from these guys across the board. They know what they're up against. They know the challenges they'll have to overcome to make this team in the near future. It helps that there's no real elite talent that will find themselves utterly dominating their competition level whether it's the AHL or junior among the more recent draftees. I'd guess that it's rather intentional that they've chosen to target deep organizational D depth and then a lot of more blue collar forwards. Not to say that won't change at next year's draft but for now it should be a very driven, workmanlike group looking to impress whenever they have the opportunity.

I trust the front office and coaching staff re: Kempny and their overall blueline deceisions going forward. It'll be sorted but as needed.

We welcome you. Been a long time coming. You’ve definitely earned it.

 

[Silky mitts]

Is it unusual for a forward to have one of the other forwards on his line assist on his goals? you are seriously using that against him? I recall several of those secondary assists. they looked like Kuznetsov's secondary assist on the Vrana goal. In other words the scoring play doesn't happen without that assist.

What contract do you offer him?

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think he’s a good player but it’s not just that he improved this year he had a lot of things go his way and we’d be buying high. Every goal in the playoffs assisted by Kuzy and or Ovy. Ten assists in the playoffs - one on the Vrana breakaway, one for Ovy, one on an empty net, 7 secondary assists. 7% shooting % the last 2 years, 11.4% this year.

I get what you are saying. I really do. I didn’t appreciate 43 until this season. I was on record with trading him 2yrs ago, and exposing him to George last year.

And I was wrong. Dead wrong.

Set a bar, he beats it. Under estimate him, he makes you regret it. For years now. He’s a helluva player, today. A difference maker. At what, barely 24? He’s got more room to grow. Size. Speed. Skill. Causes fear.

He will be a 7m a year player in 3-4 years. He’s a 3.5-4m player now. Probably be 5m as soon as next season, based on progression.

Sign him to a long deal. Now. Set the number. Now.

30m for 6yrs. And sleep well.

 

[Ridley Simon]

What contract do you offer him?

30m for 6yrs

 

[twabby]

I’d like to see more point production before locking Wilson in at $5 million a year. He’s a good player and I was wrong about him but I think the Caps can come in at $3.5-4 million a year for 5 years and it would probably be acceptable to Wilson. He might be worth $5 million but these are the contracts you look for bargains on rather than paying market value for.

 

[Silky mitts]

30m for 6yrs

Sounds fair for 6 years

I’d like to see more point production before locking Wilson in at $5 million a year. He’s a good player and I was wrong about him but I think the Caps can come in at $3.5-4 million a year for 5 years and it would probably be acceptable to Wilson. He might be worth $5 million but these are the contracts you look for bargains on rather than paying market value for.

That might be low but if you can get him 2 years at 3.75M so he could hit UFA young and then if he’s played well, maybe he’s coming off 22+40 playing on the best line in the league, how much would he be looking for? If it’s $7M a year over those 4 years you’ve cost yourself (7.5+4*7)-30 so $5.5M over 6 years if he roughly maintains his playoff numbers and $7M AAV were appropriate. You could save $1M a year, but you’re investing in physically the most reckless player in the NHL, with a contract that could cover 2 labor stoppages, whose numbers are inflated by his envious position.

 

[Roshi]

Willy should be in ballpark of 4/4.

Sideline looks to be 10 points = 1 mil & 1 year, so his 35 points are good for 3,5/4. Add the intangibles and PK and it comes to 4/4 or just a little more money or term (headshot history might bring it back a notch too). 5/5 would be overpayment, but as he is my fan-favourite i wouldnt mind too much.

Why are people bringing ”faceoffspecialistUFA” to replace Beagle? If you cant live without that quality you just pay Beags. If you dont want to pay the price you give the spot for Stephenson. ”Faceoff specialists” are not really hard or expensive to get later on if thats a real problem when closing to post season. We have good young kids looking to fight for bottom6 spots so we should let them.

 

[txpd]

What contract do you offer him?

I am not arguing contract one way or the other. I am just saying that you dismiss him in many areas far too easily.

 

[txpd]

Why are people bringing ”faceoffspecialistUFA” to replace Beagle? If you cant live without that quality you just pay Beags. If you dont want to pay the price you give the spot for Stephenson. ”Faceoff specialists” are not really hard or expensive to get later on if thats a real problem when closing to post season. We have good young kids looking to fight for bottom6 spots so we should let them.

Except Beagle isn't just a faceoff specialist. He's not a left handed pitcher brought in for one left handed batter. Look at his ice time. He plays top 9 minutes. During that critical 5 on 3 in the finals Beagle played nearly the whole thing.

 

[Roshi]

Except Beagle isn't just a faceoff specialist. He's not a left handed pitcher brought in for one left handed batter. Look at his ice time. He plays top 9 minutes. During that critical 5 on 3 in the finals Beagle played nearly the whole thing.

I agree, but im still not sold on getting UFA veteran guy to do his job. If you are going to spend money on replacing him, why not just use a little more and bring the guy back whatsoever.

In my mind its either bring Beagle back or use Stephenson.

 

[txpd]

I agree, but im still not sold on getting UFA veteran guy to do his job. If you are going to spend money on replacing him, why not just use a little more and bring the guy back whatsoever.

In my mind its either bring Beagle back or use Stephenson.

probably accurate. I don't think Beagle is the lock to lose that some do. I also think the Caps really like Stephenson's speed on the wing

 

[RandyHolt]

I love how Willy's game has developed. And it was easy to see, starting with improved skating. Most recently, producing ES points against the leagues finest. He is one of our better developed prospects in recent memory. Sure he had all the tools, but when is the last time we developed a young raw power forward.... never?

It's a good thing he didn't get any PP time, otherwise we'd be getting crushed with this contract.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Cap Friendly has the current cap space for Washington at $13,215,705.00

Rolling with some of the numbers that I see folks posting:
Wilson - 5
Kempny - 3
Bowey - 900 K
Boyd - 750 K

Will leave 3,565,705 for the likes of Beagle, DSP, Orpik?, Jerabek and Chiasson. I figure both Jerabek and Chiasson are out of the picture. Team needs to prioritize among Beagle, DSP and Orpik for the 3.5

 

[RandyHolt]

Love the Beagle. Have a rabbit catching beagle.

But is he clogging the development pipeline if we retain him? Faceoffs and PKing are great. But haven't we determined great faceoffs only net like +2 goals a year? Sure, those same advanced stats said we shouldn't have won a cup. But still, eventually he needs to turn over the reigns to someone else. If we cannot develop a 4C, I would like to think we can find one for close to league min.

Maybe we re-think things in light of our new found back to back ambitions, and roll heavy vets the next 2 years.

 

[895]

Tom Wilson's value is so hard to gauge. 35 points but is maybe the most feared hitter in the league.

I don't doubt that if we sign Wilson 6x5 we will be the laughingstock of Hfboards. But it's not like Hfboards is always right.

5 mill is only 0.75m less than Oshie and Oshie produces far more.

Ideally we want that AAV down. Either by giving him a shorter deal so he reaches UFA earlier or a longer deal so he can get that security.

8x4 or 2x4.

 

[895]

I like how every post that suggests we don't re-sign Beagle has to start with "I love Beagle but..." because otherwise people will jump down your throat.

Beagle can and will get 3x2.5 elsewhere. Let him chase the money. Sink or swim with Stephenson.

I don't want Beagle to stay. He hasn't made a lot of money over his career. He should cash in now and set his family up for life.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

With the phasing out of goons, Wilson has also become a super heavyweight. I feel secure that he's going to win any fight he gets into at this point. Hockeyfights has him at 8-3-2 this season, and at least two of those losses were the other getting the jump on him before he could square.

 

[RandyHolt]

I like how every post that suggests we don't re-sign Beagle has to start with "I love Beagle but..." because otherwise people will jump down your throat.

Beagle can and will get 3x2.5 elsewhere. Let him chase the money. Sink or swim with Stephenson.

I don't want Beagle to stay. He hasn't made a lot of money over his career. He should cash in now and set his family up for life.

YOU WANT TO LET BEAGLE GO?

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

Tom Wilson's value is so hard to gauge. 35 points but is maybe the most feared hitter in the league.

I don't doubt that if we sign Wilson 6x5 we will be the laughingstock of Hfboards. But it's not like Hfboards is always right.

5 mill is only 0.75m less than Oshie and Oshie produces far more.

Wilson had 33 ESP and 1 PPP (plus 1 SHP) this year; Oshie had 29 ESP and 18 PPP. Wilson of course played with better (more effective at the time) players this year, and Oshie may have been dealing with injuries. Oshie had 40 ESP in '16-'17. Wilson also had 15 ESP to Oshie's 10 in the playoffs (while playing with the top two Conn Smythe candidates).