Salary Cap: Capgeek - 2013-14 Projections - We're #1 !!

[Ricky Bobby]

While 4th in the east is a fact, it also can be very misleading given games in hand issues.

Shoot out wins can also be misleading, when debating a teams possible prowess in the POs.

It is true that a win is a win , but fact is, come POs ,2 formats to win a game in the reg season are gone, 4 v 4 and shoot outs.

This consistent issue of being heavily out shot , bad PK, one of the highest times short handed and lowest times on the PP are concerning issues.

I agree we have far to many red flags to ignore.

Very good goaltending and the best shootout record in the league at 9-4 are masking a lot of issues.

If our shootout record was more like 4-9 we'd 8th or 9th in the conference. It's worth noting we were 0-5 in the shootout last year.

Some of the shootout records of teams chasing us in the standing are Detroit is 3-8 in the shootout this year, Ottawa 2-6, New Jersey 0-8, Philly 3-5.

 

[egd27]

If you look at the teams "bunched up" in the East, are we really that much different from a cap perspective? (Ottawa being the exception)

Team | Pts | Cap Available at Season's End | % of Cap Saved
*TORONTO | 62 | $- | 0%
*MONTRÉAL | 61 | $1,301,600 | 2%
*NY RANGERS | 61 | $1,715,426 | 3%
*PHILADELPHIA | 58 | $- | 0%
*CAROLINA | 57 | $324,163 | 1%
*DETROIT | 57 | $- | 0%
*COLUMBUS | 56 | $210,175 | 0%
*OTTAWA | 56 | $7,827,378 | 12%
*WASHINGTON | 56 | $- | 0%
*NEW JERSEY | 55 | $1,404,859 | 2%

Perhaps the sky isn't falling and we're in a similar position that many teams are given the falling cap this season?

 

[Trainspotter]

League rules are that shootouts are used to decide games. The points don't count any less. The points have no moral shading tied to them. Barring a tie, the team will have accumulated enough points to enter the playoffs according to the league's rules or it won't have. All these calculations discounting points earned in the shootout are make believe. If only the moon were made of green cheese...

 

[Mess]

If you look at the teams "bunched up" in the East, are we really that much different from a cap perspective? (Ottawa being the exception)

Team | Pts | Cap Available at Season's End | % of Cap Saved
*TORONTO | 62 | $- | 0%
*MONTRÉAL | 61 | $1,301,600 | 2%
*NY RANGERS | 61 | $1,715,426 | 3%
*PHILADELPHIA | 58 | $- | 0%
*CAROLINA | 57 | $324,163 | 1%
*DETROIT | 57 | $- | 0%
*COLUMBUS | 56 | $210,175 | 0%
*OTTAWA | 56 | $7,827,378 | 12%
*WASHINGTON | 56 | $- | 0%
*NEW JERSEY | 55 | $1,404,859 | 2%

Perhaps the sky isn't falling and we're in a similar position that many teams are given the falling cap this season?

The teams with the most free cap space have the best opportunity to add talent to a playoff run without removing players.

True of false?

So in a tight playoff race knowing opponents will be bulking up while Leafs are tight against the cap and limited options gives an advantage to those with flexibility.

If the Sens can add a near $8 mil player for picks/prospects that might unbalance the race for a final playoff spot.

 

[theIceWookie]

The teams with the most free cap space have the best opportunity to add talent to a playoff run without removing players.

True of false?

So in a tight playoff race knowing opponents will be bulking up while Leafs are tight against the cap and limited options gives an advantage to those with flexibility.

If the Sens can add a near $8 mil player for picks/prospects that might unbalance the race for a final playoff spot.

Who cares? This year is a one off year for the cap being low. It was artificially lowered because of the lockout from last year. It was literally the first time since the salary cap was put into effect that this had happened.

The Leafs are pretty well set up for the future cap wise outside this year. And we're not really in a position to add players without giving up other players so why is it such an issue? The only types of players that cap space would help us with would be players on expiring contracts getting traded for playoff runs. We're not going to compete for the cup this year, so giving up assets like prospect and picks for a player who might not resign isn't something we should pursue.

So why whine about it?

 

[ACC1224]

The teams with the most free cap space have the best opportunity to add talent to a playoff run without removing players.

True of false?

So in a tight playoff race knowing opponents will be bulking up while Leafs are tight against the cap and limited options gives an advantage to those with flexibility.

If the Sens can add a near $8 mil player for picks/prospects that might unbalance the race for a final playoff spot.

That's good right? Would you prefer they have a bunch of cap space so they could trade picks/prospects for this mystery 8 million dollar saviour?

Myself I'd rather dead contract weight be moved out for this miracle man.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

The teams with the most free cap space have the best opportunity to add talent to a playoff run without removing players.

True of false?

So in a tight playoff race knowing opponents will be bulking up while Leafs are tight against the cap and limited options gives an advantage to those with flexibility.

If the Sens can add a near $8 mil player for picks/prospects that might unbalance the race for a final playoff spot.

Well what would you have done differently though? The only thing I would have done differently from Nonis was the Clarkson signing but UFAs always get overpayed and we managed to fit him in. Clarkson also a backdiving contract in the last two years which could look very smart by Nonis down the road.

Nonis also managed to fill the roster out with some cheaper then expected contracts like Kadri, Franson, Raymond and Ranger.

Increasing the value of Frattin/Srivens by retaining cap was a smart move.

Turning Liles into Gleason is looking darn good right now. A lot of people were screaming that Liles should have been bought out.

Brennan and Smith signed to one-way contracts below the 875K cap hit retention rule (like Liles) were minor but very smart moves.

I'm also of the belief the Leafs shouldn't be buyers paying the crazy deadlines prices it takes to acquire players at that time of the year. If anything we should be selling a few players with a focus on building this team into an annual playoff team and not losing assets on July 1st for nothing.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

That's good right? Would you prefer they have a bunch of cap space so they could trade picks/prospects for this mystery 8 million dollar saviour?

Myself I'd rather dead contract weight be moved out for this miracle man.

Leafs would probably be accused of being cheap if they didn't spend to the cap.

Then when the Leafs spend to the cap they are accused of bad management.

No matter what they can't win.

Personally when I look at the overall body of work for what Nonis has done to date I give him a very high grade.

 

[Faltorvo]

Who cares? This year is a one off year for the cap being low. It was artificially lowered because of the lockout from last year. It was literally the first time since the salary cap was put into effect that this had happened.

The Leafs are pretty well set up for the future cap wise outside this year. And we're not really in a position to add players without giving up other players so why is it such an issue? The only types of players that cap space would help us with would be players on expiring contracts getting traded for playoff runs. We're not going to compete for the cup this year, so giving up assets like prospect and picks for a player who might not resign isn't something we should pursue.
So why whine about it?

Your bolded, I'd argue the same logic when it comes to our own UFAs.

I see no difference if we fail to add picks/ prospect with our pending UFAs come TD.

Either way it's the exact same value outcome, UFA walks and picks/prospects are not on our asset ledger.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No, I have not forgotten. We were at a low point. We had had to endure 24/7 cameras (which historically hurt a team's performance), the toughest stretch of games this year (and in maybe a decade), and a constant bombardment of injuries/suspensions to the same positions (ie. top-3 centers out).

Every single team in the East has gone through significant periods of looking like total garbage, with the possible exception of Boston, Pittsburgh and Tampa.

I think part of the problem is that people think of the best hockey team as one that executes perfectly at all times (probably due to hockey video games). As in, with a rating system of 1 to 100, with 100 being perfect, the best team is a 100. In reality, the best team is maybe a 70. Or more accurately, somewhere in the range of 50-70 on any given night. Then, a middle of the pack team may be a 40-60 range. And a bad team 30-50.

So when evaluating the Leafs and Leaf players, we should not be comparing them to perfection, but to a top team and it's players, with all their faults and deficiencies.

Not a comfortable position, but right now, we are 4th.

P.S. Montreal's games in hand are against Boston and Tampa.

So Montreal's games in hand are meaningless? Oooooookay then. 4th in the east it is.

If we were at a low point then, perhaps we're at a high point now? That's what, 15 points out of 18 over the last 9 games. It doesn't get much "higher" than that.

I wish people would stop using the "our top 3 centres were injured" excuse. It's fiction, nothing more. Kadri wasn't injured, he was suspended (deservedly) for 3 games, 2 of which we won. Every team has injuries, our injury problems have been average (if that).

4th place in the standings does not mean that they are "the 4th best team" as you said earlier. Especially not when they could be 12th a week from now.

Here's a simple question for you. Let's say that 2 weeks from now, the Leafs are in 9th place in the East. Will you then be saying that we are the 9th best team in the East? Or will you put some other spin on it?

I'm sure nobody was telling us we were better than our record last year because of our shootout-suckage. I don't see why our successes in that area should be diminished this year because we have worked on it and improved. We have found a good setup of shootout shooters, which will mean a better winning percentage.

I hate it as much as you, but it's not entirely a crapshoot.

I am not diminishing our success, I just said not to expect that we would continue to win shootouts at the same rate going forward. Do you think that's an unreasonable stance?

Good setup of shooters? What does that mean? It's the same guys dude. Last year, Bozak was the only player to score, this year the other guys are scoring that's all there is to it. It's simple variance, nothing more. Or are you predicting that we will continue to win shootouts at the same rate going forward?

I think the most appropriate assessment would be to say the cold hard facts, which is that we are in 4th, and that these standings are subject to change, as they always are when doing mid-season analysis.

You earlier said that we are the 4th best team in the East. That is not a fact. The fact that we are 4th in the standings (which most people I think would agree should be 5th) doesn't mean that we are the 4th best team.

I don't think there's ever anything wrong with thinking about how you match up with potential playoff opponents, because that's what this is all about. Especially now that potential playoff opponents have been narrowed down so much with the new format, you have to match up well to get anywhere.

Who is the "favourite" doesn't matter. The game is played on the ice, and we have the benefit of having our most likely playoff opponents being teams that we match up well against. I think last year shows that we match up against Boston quite well, both in style and abilities. We are one of the few teams that seems to be able to better shut down Crosby and knock him off his game. We have matched up well over the years, especially considering the sheer skill that pittsburgh has. Matching up well against Tampa is not about last night. It is about the style of our teams as well as the results. Both rely on speed, a good PP, elite goaltending, and have done well despite inconsistent defenses, anchored by one rock.

If it doesn't matter who the favorite is, what's the point of thinking about how you match up with potential playoff opponents?

Anyone objectively looking at a Toronto-Boston matchup would see that Boston would be a huge favorite. If you throw out everything we know about both teams based on how they have played over the last several years and look at one 7 game series in a vaccuum, then sure it's a toss-up. Please tell me you're not that naive.

If a TOR-BOs series happens, BOS will be a huge favorite. The betting line will give Toronto approximately a 30% chance of winning the series. But you think it will more like 50/50? Or are you going to say that the people who set the odds don't know what they're doing, they don't understand how well we "match up"?

Any time you can make a round against a team above you in the standings more of a toss-up, you are coming out on top.

Um, make a round do what? Come out on top of what? I have no idea what this even means?

You sound like a great spokesman for the most optimistic members of Leaf Nation. I remember guys like you from earlier this season, the party line goes something like this:

No-one in the East scares me. We showed last year that we can play with Boston, we match up well against Pittsburgh (and Tampa),no-one else in the East is that good, basically, there isn't one single team in the East that we shouldn't be able to beat if we're at the top of our game. The West has good teams sure, but hey, we only have to play one of them in the final and win one series, anything can happen, especially if you have good goaltending and Bernier is as good as anyone in the world right now.

Plan the parade!

The reality is, we are on the playoff bubble along with about 7 other teams. I would say our chances of making the playoffs are a little better than 50% but that's it.

Go Leafs go!

 

[Ricky Bobby]

League rules are that shootouts are used to decide games. The points don't count any less. The points have no moral shading tied to them. Barring a tie, the team will have accumulated enough points to enter the playoffs according to the league's rules or it won't have. All these calculations discounting points earned in the shootout are make believe. If only the moon were made of green cheese...

Obviously the points still count the same.

However, accumulating points as a result of a good shootout record shouldn't let fans and management fool themselves into thinking we're really as good of a team as the standing show.

Another issue is that we play in a weak East but if we were in the West we might not even be in the top 10 teams.

All in all the Leafs have a ways to go before they could be considered anything more then a playoff bubble team.

 

[Confucius]

Cap $$ Out would have equal Cap $$ In as there isn't even enough cap space at present to add a minor leaguer making league min $550k.

Silver lining might be you can't trade draft picks for help with no cap space to add without subtracting.

To nitpick there is room for all league minimum player. Since the additional players salary would be prorated to the 15 games left in the season.

 

[Incetardis]

Our cap situation really isn't any different than the mass majority of teams in the league. With the cap decreasing all the competitive teams are real close to their cap ceiling with a few exceptions. Not a sign of the apocalypse... mmmkay?

 

[gabeliscious]

The teams with the most free cap space have the best opportunity to add talent to a playoff run without removing players.

True of false?

So in a tight playoff race knowing opponents will be bulking up while Leafs are tight against the cap and limited options gives an advantage to those with flexibility.

If the Sens can add a near $8 mil player for picks/prospects that might unbalance the race for a final playoff spot.

which $8 million player is available right now and which team is going to acquire said player for merely futures without sending any sort of roster player back?

in theory you are correct but i dont see nonis mortgaging the future for a playoff run nor do i see the cap being an issue should he want to make a trade.

the leafs have a plethora of expiring contracts that a team moving their $8 million player could take back in a trade for ~20 games. the leafs also have a good amount of players up with the team that dont play and could be sent down, some with zero cap penalty (mclaren, orr, smith, ashton, fraser, ranger, etc, etc.) nonis can trim the fat if he had to make space for an $8 million player.

bottom line, i cant think of a single occasion in the entire nhl when a player was going to be traded but the team had to decline for cap reasons.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Did the math, going into next season we have 12 players locked up.

8 fwds, 3 defencemen, 1 goalie

Total cap hit - 48.525M

Total cap room - 22.575M to sign 10 players and one back up goalie.

Top 6, #1D man, and #1G are all locked up for 14-15.

Biggest signing need is Bolland. I anticipate Bolland to eat up 4M to 4.2M for 5 years.

Leaving approximately 17.8M for 4 Dmen and 4 Fwds and 1 back up goalie.

*Barring trades, which is highly likely.

Not in bad shape at all.

 

[egd27]

The teams with the most free cap space have the best opportunity to add talent to a playoff run without removing players.

True of false?

So in a tight playoff race knowing opponents will be bulking up while Leafs are tight against the cap and limited options gives an advantage to those with flexibility.

If the Sens can add a near $8 mil player for picks/prospects that might unbalance the race for a final playoff spot.

Shocked that out of nine possible options you would focus on the one outlier to make your rebuttal.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Did the math, going into next season we have 12 players locked up.

8 fwds, 3 defencemen, 1 goalie

Total cap hit - 48.525M

Total cap room - 22.575M to sign 10 players and one back up goalie.

Top 6, #1D man, and #1G are all locked up for 14-15.

Biggest signing need is Bolland. I anticipate Bolland to eat up 4M to 4.2M for 5 years.

Leaving approximately 17.8M for 4 Dmen and 4 Fwds and 1 back up goalie.

*Barring trades, which is highly likely.

Not in bad shape at all.

I'm also not worried about the cap.

At least half of those remaining positional spots will be filled by cheap players like Ranger or RFAs with little to no negotiating power that will have deals anywhere from the league minimum to just over a million which include Holland and Ashton who are likely regulars next year.

D'Amigo might also be a regular.

One or possibly two of Leivo, Percy, Granberg, Holzer, Brennan could also be depth players to round out the lineup.

 

[The Apologist]

The teams with the most free cap space have the best opportunity to add talent to a playoff run without removing players.

True of false?

So in a tight playoff race knowing opponents will be bulking up while Leafs are tight against the cap and limited options gives an advantage to those with flexibility.

If the Sens can add a near $8 mil player for picks/prospects that might unbalance the race for a final playoff spot.

The Leafs will be adding a Dave Bolland right around this point, true or false?

Seems like a rather significant trade deadline piece right there.

 

[Gallagbi]

Did the math, going into next season we have 12 players locked up.

8 fwds, 3 defencemen, 1 goalie

Total cap hit - 48.525M

Total cap room - 22.575M to sign 10 players and one back up goalie.

Top 6, #1D man, and #1G are all locked up for 14-15.

Biggest signing need is Bolland. I anticipate Bolland to eat up 4M to 4.2M for 5 years.

Leaving approximately 17.8M for 4 Dmen and 4 Fwds and 1 back up goalie.

*Barring trades, which is highly likely.

Not in bad shape at all.

Looks like you're off by a D-man (Rielly?) since Gunnar, Rielly, Phaneuf and Gleason are all signed for the 2014-2015 season.

http://www.capgeek.com/mapleleafs

Thread title is still wrong as well, Washington has less space than the Leafs (and did the last time I posted).

 

[exporta]

The four teams below us are or have been powerhouses recently. While we haven't. Poor cap management?

7-1-1 lately isn't a power house?

I know we aren't dominating, but we are getting the wins.

 

[The Apologist]

Obviously the points still count the same.

However, accumulating points as a result of a good shootout record shouldn't let fans and management fool themselves into thinking we're really as good of a team as the standing show.

Why would that be fooling ourselves? Regardless of how we won, We've won 29 games. We are a 29 win team thus far. We are third in our division. That's how good we are. Spin it any way you like but we are where we deserve to be at this moment.

Another issue is that we play in a weak East but if we were in the West we might not even be in the top 10 teams.

Because we've struggled against the west this year? Maybe if we got to play the Oilers a few more times wed look even better?

All in all the Leafs have a ways to go before they could be considered anything more then a playoff bubble team.

Much like all but two teams in the East and three or four in the west?
I know it's cool to play the 'downplay everything they do' card to claim 'impartiality' and 'hockey knowledge' but credit where credit is due would make you look even wiser...

 

[The Apologist]

So Montreal's games in hand are meaningless? Oooooookay then. 4th in the east it is.

If we were at a low point then, perhaps we're at a high point now? That's what, 15 points out of 18 over the last 9 games. It doesn't get much "higher" than that.

I wish people would stop using the "our top 3 centres were injured" excuse. It's fiction, nothing more. Kadri wasn't injured, he was suspended (deservedly) for 3 games, 2 of which we won. Every team has injuries, our injury problems have been average (if that).

4th place in the standings does not mean that they are "the 4th best team" as you said earlier. Especially not when they could be 12th a week from now.

Here's a simple question for you. Let's say that 2 weeks from now, the Leafs are in 9th place in the East. Will you then be saying that we are the 9th best team in the East? Or will you put some other spin on it?



I am not diminishing our success, I just said not to expect that we would continue to win shootouts at the same rate going forward. Do you think that's an unreasonable stance?

Good setup of shooters? What does that mean? It's the same guys dude. Last year, Bozak was the only player to score, this year the other guys are scoring that's all there is to it. It's simple variance, nothing more. Or are you predicting that we will continue to win shootouts at the same rate going forward?



You earlier said that we are the 4th best team in the East. That is not a fact. The fact that we are 4th in the standings (which most people I think would agree should be 5th) doesn't mean that we are the 4th best team.



If it doesn't matter who the favorite is, what's the point of thinking about how you match up with potential playoff opponents?

Anyone objectively looking at a Toronto-Boston matchup would see that Boston would be a huge favorite. If you throw out everything we know about both teams based on how they have played over the last several years and look at one 7 game series in a vaccuum, then sure it's a toss-up. Please tell me you're not that naive.

If a TOR-BOs series happens, BOS will be a huge favorite. The betting line will give Toronto approximately a 30% chance of winning the series. But you think it will more like 50/50? Or are you going to say that the people who set the odds don't know what they're doing, they don't understand how well we "match up"?




Um, make a round do what? Come out on top of what? I have no idea what this even means?

You sound like a great spokesman for the most optimistic members of Leaf Nation. I remember guys like you from earlier this season, the party line goes something like this:

No-one in the East scares me. We showed last year that we can play with Boston, we match up well against Pittsburgh (and Tampa),no-one else in the East is that good, basically, there isn't one single team in the East that we shouldn't be able to beat if we're at the top of our game. The West has good teams sure, but hey, we only have to play one of them in the final and win one series, anything can happen, especially if you have good goaltending and Bernier is as good as anyone in the world right now.

Plan the parade!

The reality is, we are on the playoff bubble along with about 7 other teams. I would say our chances of making the playoffs are a little better than 50% but that's it.

Go Leafs go!

Montreal's games in hand mean nothing until they win them, until then we are ahead of them. Unless there is an alternate NHL standings I'm missing?

As for the east, I still don't see a single team I don't believe we could beat in seven games. Not one. What happened between teams over the last several years means absolutely nothing in 2014. What relevance does Boston beating Toronto in 2012 have now?

 

[Joey Hoser]

Yeah I bet Mess is just dying to spend a bunch of assets on a big-ticket veteran.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Montreal's games in hand mean nothing until they win them, until then we are ahead of them. Unless there is an alternate NHL standings I'm missing?

As for the east, I still don't see a single team I don't believe we could beat in seven games. Not one. What happened between teams over the last several years means absolutely nothing in 2014. What relevance does Boston beating Toronto in 2012 have now?

How does having 2 games in hand mean nothing until they win them?

Winning 2 games is 4 points. Having 2 games in hand is a potential 4 points. If you think 4 potential points = nothing then I don't know what to say man.

Have you ever looked at MBL or NBA standings? They seem to feel games in hand have value, I wonder why that is?

 

[Trainspotter]

Obviously the points still count the same.

However, accumulating points as a result of a good shootout record shouldn't let fans and management fool themselves into thinking we're really as good of a team as the standing show.

Good point. I'm sure no one outside of the superior hockey minds here has noticed. Especially Nonis. He seems a little slow if you ask me.

Another issue is that we play in a weak East but if we were in the West we might not even be in the top 10 teams.

Good thing they play in the East then eh?