Firstly, the way the NHL does it's standings is dumb. If we did more logically (like the NBA for example) then we would see that MTL is 4th in the east sitting at 8 points above .500, we are at 7 points above, one team is 2 more points back, 3 teams are one point behind them and another 3 teams are another 1 point behind. Or to put it another way, if we were to lose 2 games to the 12th place team, we would be tied with them. Hardly a comfortable place to be. Have you and everyone else completely forgotten where we were just a few weeks ago?
No, I have not forgotten. We were at a low point. We had had to endure 24/7 cameras (which historically hurt a team's performance), the toughest stretch of games this year (and in maybe a decade), and a constant bombardment of injuries/suspensions to the same positions (ie. top-3 centers out).
Every single team in the East has gone through significant periods of looking like total garbage, with the possible exception of Boston, Pittsburgh and Tampa.
I think part of the problem is that people think of the best hockey team as one that executes perfectly at all times (probably due to hockey video games). As in, with a rating system of 1 to 100, with 100 being perfect, the best team is a 100. In reality, the best team is maybe a 70. Or more accurately, somewhere in the range of 50-70 on any given night. Then, a middle of the pack team may be a 40-60 range. And a bad team 30-50.
So when evaluating the Leafs and Leaf players, we should not be comparing them to perfection, but to a top team and it's players, with all their faults and deficiencies.
Not a comfortable position, but right now, we are
4th.
P.S. Montreal's games in hand are against Boston and Tampa.
Another factor is that we were unlucky last year in the crapshoot that is the shootout. This year however, it's the opposite. This means that realistically, we were a bit better last year than the standings showed, and were not as good as the standings show right now. If we had a "normal" record in shootouts we would probably be about tied for 8th. It's highly unlikely that we will keep winning shootouts at the same pace, more realistic is that we will win at an average pace.
I'm sure nobody was telling us we were better than our record last year because of our shootout-suckage. I don't see why our successes in that area should be diminished this year because we have worked on it and improved. We have found a good setup of shootout shooters, which will mean a better winning percentage.
I hate it as much as you, but it's not entirely a crapshoot.
I have no idea how this team will perform over the next 5 games, do you? How about the next 10 games?
Rather than "4th in the east" I think a more realistic assessment of our team would be to say that we are in a pack of 9 teams from 4th to 12th separated by a mere 5 points and we could easily finish anywhere in that group at the end of the year.
I think the most appropriate assessment would be to say the cold hard facts, which is that we are in 4th, and that these standings are subject to change, as they always are when doing mid-season analysis.
So you think that it's time to start thinking about how we match up against potential PO opponents huh? And you think that against the top 3 teams in the east we match up well? Really? From where I sit, BOS would be an enormous facourite against us and deservedly so. We match up better against PIT perhaps but don't kid yourself, they also would be a huge favourite against us. And TB ... from what I saw last night, we gave up a zillion 2 on 1 breaks, were outplayed by a good margin and Bernier bailed us out. This has been the formula all year long and it is not a good formula for playoff success. Don't forget that Stamkos will be back when the playoffs roll around - still think we "match up well"? I'm not saying we can't win that series but to say we match up well because of last night is extreme homerism, nothing more. I prefer to wait and see if we even make the playoffs before I start chirping about how well we match up against teams that by any objective measure are better than we are.
I don't think there's ever anything wrong with thinking about how you match up with potential playoff opponents, because that's what this is all about. Especially now that potential playoff opponents have been narrowed down so much with the new format, you have to match up well to get anywhere.
Who is the "favourite" doesn't matter. The game is played on the ice, and we have the benefit of having our most likely playoff opponents being teams that we match up well against. I think last year shows that we match up against Boston quite well, both in style and abilities. We are one of the few teams that seems to be able to better shut down Crosby and knock him off his game. We have matched up well over the years, especially considering the sheer skill that pittsburgh has. Matching up well against Tampa is not about last night. It is about the style of our teams as well as the results. Both rely on speed, a good PP, elite goaltending, and have done well despite inconsistent defenses, anchored by one rock.
Any time you can make a round against a team above you in the standings more of a toss-up, you are coming out on top.
It's more his style of play. We should notice him a lot more.
