Salary Cap: Capgeek - 2013-14 Projections - We're #1 !!

[The Caveman]

It seems he was indeed right about Bozak. I'll freely admit that I thought that was an overpayment with the only possible justification being that if it helps us sign Kessel then it might be worth it. Not only did Kessel sign but now Bozak is earning his keep as well, nice!

As far as Clarkson goes though, I hope I turn out to be wrong but it seemed like a really bad signing from day 1. And as far as them being signed for the playoffs goes, that makes no sense IMO. We're not contenders, hell we're not even close to a lock to even make the playoffs so sacrificing cap space (and multiple picks in the case of Bolland) only handcuffs us for the future with the short term return being maybe winning a PO round at best and even that is doubtful.

Nope, bringing in Clarkson (and Bolland) "for the playoffs" to me makes no sense at all.

The 'team" is greater than it's individual parts. Is Gleason the 2nd coming of Scott Stevens? No, he was a healthy scratch in Carolina.. While you need talent to be a great team, you also need character, maturity and a winning mentality. Gleason brings it. Bolland and Clarkson were brought in for that reason.

The leafs are learning how to win. It is a slow process. It starts with making the playoffs again, and then winning a round. Can Clarkson help us do it? I agree that up to now he hasn't lived up to his contract, and it looks like a bad signing. All I am saying is that it is too early to judge his true value to this team, much like it took Bozak to prove his worth to all you doubters.

 

[JackJ]

That's putting the Leafs nearly $2M less in cap space than all other teams over a 6 year span after Clarkson's contract would otherwise be off the books.

IMO, it would be better to simply hold onto him, and let him try and earn the contract.

No different than the last 4-5 years: Tucker, Armstrong & Finger.

 

[TheKule]

The positive thing about all this mismanagement is that Nonis can't sign any more medicore players to star contracts... Right?

It will be sad when we have 5 rookies in the lineup next year due entirely to $$$ concerns. Fortunately this cap crunch will only last another couple years as the NHL's revenues are exploding.

 

[diceman934]

If we subtracted the 2.5M in buyouts and taking on salary. We are not close to the top in spending.

Somewhat deceiving, we are in good shape next year with 2.5 coming off the books and the cap going up.

The cap savings on the buy outs have already been spent and then some.....Kessel's contract took care of that and additional $100000 then Dion's raise...we are $600,000 over that savings and still need to resign a lot of players with most due raises.

We are up against the cap this year and will be again next year....with all the contracts that are needing to be done...

 

[The Caveman]

The positive thing about all this mismanagement is that Nonis can't sign any more medicore players to star contracts... Right?

It will be sad when we have 5 rookies in the lineup next year due entirely to $$$ concerns. Fortunately this cap crunch will only last another couple years as the NHL's revenues are exploding.

We won't have 5 rookies in the line-up. But we'll have 1 or 2, as any good organization does each year. Promote from within.

 

[Gallagbi]

The positive thing about all this mismanagement is that Nonis can't sign any more medicore players to star contracts... Right?

It will be sad when we have 5 rookies in the lineup next year due entirely to $$$ concerns. Fortunately this cap crunch will only last another couple years as the NHL's revenues are exploding.

They'll have some wiggle room this summer. The crunch will be until the end of the year.

 

[TheKule]

We won't have 5 rookies in the line-up. But we'll have 1 or 2, as any good organization does each year. Promote from within.

The leafs have 21 million in space to sign 13 players. Granted, most of the top 6 is locked down long term, but that is not enough money to keep everybody we currently have. For a bubble team that's pathetic, but I digress. The Leafs will need someone to replace Franson's minutes (Finn or Granberg), and 2 players to replace Kulemin and Raymond, and even then it might be tight. 5 may have been an exaggeration, but when you add these guys to lines that presently feature Carter Ashton and Peter Holland, it's a lot of inexperience in the bottom 6, more than I'm comfortable with on a team that is already struggling.

 

[SprDaVE]

What I like going into this off-season is that we are fairly set in our top 6, heck most of the top 9 is set, especially if we can re-sign Kulemin, McClement and/or Bolland.

Most of our defensive core is locked up as well. We just need to get a top 4 defenseman to probably replace Franson, which may be hard to find though. There's a few interesting names that are slated to hit UFA. We don't need a long-term defender in the top 4 with the depth coming up, just a good stop gap veteran probably. Someone like Mike Weaver would be perfect.

We have around 21M to spend on 7 players which is on average 3M per player. That's very good. A good portion of those players will be RFA's re-signed to likely decent bridge contracts or short-term deals.

 

[SprDaVE]

The leafs have 21 million in space to sign 13 players. Granted, most of the top 6 is locked down long term, but that is not enough money to keep everybody we currently have. For a bubble team that's pathetic, but I digress. The Leafs will need someone to replace Franson's minutes (Finn or Granberg), and 2 players to replace Kulemin and Raymond, and even then it might be tight. 5 may have been an exaggeration, but when you add these guys to lines that presently feature Carter Ashton and Peter Holland, it's a lot of inexperience in the bottom 6, more than I'm comfortable with on a team that is already struggling.

21M to sign 7 players you mean. We have 13 players locked up all ready.

Kessel, JVR, Bozak, Kadri, Lupul, Clarkson, Orr, McLaren, Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Gleason, Rielly, Bernier.

 

[TheKule]

21M to sign 7 players you mean. We have 13 players locked up all ready.

Kessel, JVR, Bozak, Kadri, Lupul, Clarkson, Orr, McLaren, Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Gleason, Rielly, Bernier.

Actually, its 10 players, not 13 or 7. my bad, and also your bad.

And I meant to say Percy, not Finn, who will be on the Marlies.

 

[SprDaVE]

Actually, its 10 players, not 13 or 7. my bad, and also your bad.

And I meant to say Percy, not Finn, who will be on the Marlies.

Only if you go to 23 players, which isn't necessary.

Minimum is 20 players. But most teams do carry at least 21 players, so I guess we can go up to 8 players.

Either way, the depth players are not a burden on the cap. Most make around the minimum. Even if we have 23 players on the roster, it's not going to make much of a difference on the cap but the average goes from 3M to around 2.1M, which is a difference of 900k --- or one depth player.

All that to say that we should be fine to get one good UFA signing, while re-signing players like McClement, Bolland and Kulemin to fair deals. We should still have plenty in the bank to re-sign the RFA's and get a couple depth players for around the minimum. We could see Kulemin leave though if he out prices his stay, which will help our cap cushion quite a bit.

 

[TheKule]

Only if you go to 23 players, which isn't necessary.

Minimum is 20 players. But most teams do carry at least 21 players, so I guess we can go up to 8 players.

I don't know about you, but I don't want McLaren and Orr on the 4th line very much at all, and I think Carlyle feels the same way, at least I hope he does. So that's 22 players the Leafs need to carry just to keep those guys in the press box. And who doesn't carry an extra D?

All that to say that we should be fine to get one good UFA signing, while re-signing players like McClement, Bolland and Kulemin to fair deals. We should still have plenty in the bank to re-sign the RFA's and get a couple depth players for around the minimum. We could see Kulemin leave though if he out prices his stay, which will help our cap cushion quite a bit.

Fair deals are hard to come by these days, it seems. And let's not forget Nonis also needs to sign a backup for Bernier, and I think we can all agree that we need someone quality in that slot. No MacDonalds or Clemmensens.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

The cap savings on the buy outs have already been spent and then some.....Kessel's contract took care of that and additional $100000 then Dion's raise...we are $600,000 over that savings and still need to resign a lot of players with most due raises.

We are up against the cap this year and will be again next year....with all the contracts that are needing to be done...

I am simply not seeing the issues. Pretty much the only thing we won't be able to do is sign some big name free agent, but I'm not sure there even are any this year, and it's not something we should be going after anyway.

Did some calculations. Gave reasonable to generous contracts to our RFA/UFAs. Only notable player I got rid of was Franson, but a pylon would be an improvement. And Raymond, but he doesn't really fit. These are players I took off for lack of fit, not money issues. Even kept Reimer, even though I don't think there's any chance he is here next year (and another backup would be cheaper).

Where's the panic?

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Peter Holland ($1.000m) / Dave Bolland ($3.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($3.500m)
Troy Bodie ($0.600m) / Jay McClement ($2.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Trevor Smith ($0.800m) / Carter Ashton ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($3.150m) / Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m)
Jake Gardiner ($2.000m) / Tim Gleason ($4.000m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Paul Ranger ($1.000m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.900m) / Petter Granberg ($0.800m)
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($3.000m)
BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,119,167; BONUSES: $950,000
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $1,980,833

 

[SprDaVE]

I don't know about you, but I don't want McLaren and Orr on the 4th line very much at all, and I think Carlyle feels the same way, at least I hope he does. So that's 22 players the Leafs need to carry just to keep those guys in the press box. And who doesn't carry an extra D?



Fair deals are hard to come by these days, it seems. And let's not forget Nonis also needs to sign a backup for Bernier, and I think we can all agree that we need someone quality in that slot. No MacDonalds or Clemmensens.

I'm not saying they are quality players but they are bodies nonetheless. I think you could easily replace them with players making around the same cap hit. 4th line players won't make much more then what Orr or McLaren make. Heck either one of them are likely to be replaced internally with ELC contracts, so that's likely some saved cap space.

Fair deals are hard to come by. Not to say they can't be found. I'm sure a few of our pending UFA will likely be gone, including Kulemin or Bolland. I think we could fit them both but again, it really depends on what each player thinks they are worth.

As for the backup, MacDonald may very well get his chance at it next year. He was fantastic in pre-season and he's been fantastic with the Marlies as well. I think he would be a fine backup choice and one that would cost pennies on the cap, not to mention we could get a goaltender back if we do trade Reimer for help elsewhere. Worrying about a backup goaltender is not something we should really be harping on.

Again, we could debate the if's and but's, but the fact remains that we have plenty of options going into the off-season and our cap space is in a good place. There aren't any big time dead weight contracts (yes I know, Clarkson) and most important pieces are locked up, with the RFA's likely not needing any huge raises. I think the only 'big' hole is on defence. Upgrading on Franson should be a priority.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

The cap savings on the buy outs have already been spent and then some.....Kessel's contract took care of that and additional $100000 then Dion's raise...we are $600,000 over that savings and still need to resign a lot of players with most due raises.

We are up against the cap this year and will be again next year....with all the contracts that are needing to be done...

I'm not worried, Nonis has movable contracts if we need capspace. There is no set law that Lupul has to be in our core of players for instance.

 

[TheKule]

I'm not saying they are quality players but they are bodies nonetheless. I think you could easily replace them with players making around the same cap hit. 4th line players won't make much more then what Orr or McLaren make. Heck either one of them are likely to be replaced internally with ELC contracts, so that's likely some saved cap space.

Fair deals are hard to come by. Not to say they can't be found. I'm sure a few of our pending UFA will likely be gone, including Kulemin or Bolland. I think we could fit them both but again, it really depends on what each player thinks they are worth.

As for the backup, MacDonald may very well get his chance at it next year. He was fantastic in pre-season and he's been fantastic with the Marlies as well. I think he would be a fine backup choice and one that would cost pennies on the cap, not to mention we could get a goaltender back if we do trade Reimer for help elsewhere.

Again, we could debate the if's and but's, but the fact remains that we have plenty of options going into the off-season and our cap space is in a good place. There aren't any big time dead weight contracts and most important pieces are locked up.

The point about the ELCs is why I jumped into this conversation. We're going to have a very inexperienced bottom 6 and that does not please me. I'll agree it's not a dire situation but it could have been better had Nonis made smarter decisions in the off season.

Here's my 'ideal' off season in that I hope Nonis can do something similar without screwing the pooch. I'm assuming overpayments for every UFA/RFA.

 

[SprDaVE]

The point about the ELCs is why I jumped into this conversation. We're going to have a very inexperienced bottom 6 and that does not please me. I'll agree it's not a dire situation but it could have been better had Nonis made smarter decisions in the off season.

Here's my 'ideal' off season in that I hope Nonis can do something similar without screwing the pooch. I'm assuming overpayments for every UFA/RFA.

Pretty much what I had in mind as well, all though a couple of the UFA re-signings should be a bit lower here and there, but they are not unrealistic numbers by any means.

I don't see Gardiner around the price either, unless he's signed long-term. I see Nonis giving him a bridge contract like Kadri and Franson, probably a 2 year for ~2.5M cap hit. If Franson didn't get much more than that after a huge year, I don't see Gardiner getting that much either.

Either way, like I've been saying, a lot of potential options for us depending on a lot of factors. I'm certainly not worried about our cap structure going into the next season.

 

[share]

Chicken little's are out in full force. Pretty sure any and all salaries being added are pro-rated, and not the full cap hit. Not to mention. teams like the leafs have capologists; pretty sure they know what they are doing.

If the coaches and general managers on this board are so much better than Nonis and his staff of assistants and coaches, then surely you have to accept that they are really much more aware of cap issues than the lowly capologist that MLSE hired ...

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I am simply not seeing the issues. Pretty much the only thing we won't be able to do is sign some big name free agent, but I'm not sure there even are any this year, and it's not something we should be going after anyway.

Did some calculations. Gave reasonable to generous contracts to our RFA/UFAs. Only notable player I got rid of was Franson, but a pylon would be an improvement. And Raymond, but he doesn't really fit. These are players I took off for lack of fit, not money issues. Even kept Reimer, even though I don't think there's any chance he is here next year (and another backup would be cheaper).

Where's the panic?

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Peter Holland ($1.000m) / Dave Bolland ($3.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($3.500m)
Troy Bodie ($0.600m) / Jay McClement ($2.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Trevor Smith ($0.800m) / Carter Ashton ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($3.150m) / Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m)
Jake Gardiner ($2.000m) / Tim Gleason ($4.000m)
Morgan Rielly ($0.894m) / Paul Ranger ($1.000m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.900m) / Petter Granberg ($0.800m)
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($3.000m)
BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,119,167; BONUSES: $950,000
CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $1,980,833

I agree that people are getting worked up for no reason.

However, I don't agree with some of your numbers.

I'd make the following changes:
-Bolland will be looking for between 4 to 5
-No way would I pay McClement 2.5 per year. He's a 4th line center who has regressed since last year when everyone fell in love with him. Guys like Gregory Campbell, Goc, Boyle, Talbot are all under 2 million. 4th liners like this are not players we should pay a premium for.
-We'll be carrying a 22 or 23 man roster and not a 24 man roster
-Reimer dollar figure seems fair but I think he'll be moved with a cheaper replacement brought in. This will allow us to fit in another good D option (thinking a vet on a short term deal like Salo, Mitchell, Robidas) but it is pure speculation on my part

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

I bet Girardi is re-signed. He won't be an option, and he's really the only free agent that we need.

Also, some people are projecting EXTREMELY high prices for our UFAs and RFAs. Usually it's the other way around; what happened?

Kulemin is great, crucial defensively, and I would love to keep him. That said, he has 21 goals in the last 168 games, including playoffs. Yes, he plays a defensive role, but he has had his share of time on scoring lines in that span too. He has put up a 33 point pace over the last 3 seasons, and offense is what usually brings the high costs. What 30-point guy is getting paid nearly 4 million?

When we got Bolland, people were saying that he wasn't worth his current contract of like 3.3m. But now people expect that number to jump up to 5 million, after 15 games and a major injury? Even if he comes back right after the break, he will have played less than half the season, and he likely won't be at 100%. If Grabovski was bought out because 5.5m was too much for the 3rd line, why would we turn around and pay assets and 5 mil to the same role a year later?

Holland has 59 GP and 17 points. 10 points in 30 games so far this year. He's an RFA. I don't know why people are saying he's going to get over a million. Colborne is a closer comparable contract-wise than Kadri. Colborne got 600k I believe?

Same goes for other guys who can barely make the team and don't contribute points, like D'amigo and Ashton. They will likely be closer to league minimum.

I don't see how Gardiner gets more, not to mention significantly more on his 2nd contract, than Franson got on his 4th after a huge year. Or more than Kadri on his 2nd contract after a near PPG year. Gardiner will likely get a bridge deal, just like them.

And why are people suggesting we get an expensive backup? Cheap options are out there. If we end up trading Reimer, it is because management is committing to Bernier for 60-70 games a year. Not getting an elite backup should not be a worry.

 

[SprDaVE]

I bet Girardi is re-signed. He won't be an option, and he's really the only free agent that we need.

I think there are plenty of other options other than Girardi that would fit in really well, especially in terms of veterans.

Morris, Weaver, Timonen, Boyle, Orpik, Robidas, Mitchell, Sarich and Greene are all solid veteran defenders that would add a lot to our younger core. Good stop gap options until Rielly gets better and stronger, and while Percy and the rest keep developing.

There's a couple younger defensemen that would be interesting but they are not likely going to make it to UFA. Fayne, Niskanen, MacDonald, Nikitin and Meszaros come to mind.

They are obviously not Norris trophy caliber players but not many defenders like Ryan Suter or Zdeno Chara make it to free agency these days. Girardi is likely to be either grossly overpaid (Call it the Clarkson effect), and/or retained by the Rangers or wherever he's traded. I'm not sure we should be overpaying for a #3-4 defender. The issue here is that are they any better then Franson? That's tough.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

What I like going into this off-season is that we are fairly set in our top 6, heck most of the top 9 is set, especially if we can re-sign Kulemin, McClement and/or Bolland.

Most of our defensive core is locked up as well. We just need to get a top 4 defenseman to probably replace Franson, which may be hard to find though. There's a few interesting names that are slated to hit UFA. We don't need a long-term defender in the top 4 with the depth coming up, just a good stop gap veteran probably. Someone like Mike Weaver would be perfect.

We have around 21M to spend on 7 players which is on average 3M per player. That's very good. A good portion of those players will be RFA's re-signed to likely decent bridge contracts or short-term deals.

Some interesting UFA vets who can be #4/5 around 18-20 minute a night options are available.

Rielly should be handling anywhere from another 2-5 minutes a game next year and Gardiner will likely also be handling another minute or two extra per game next year.

I see us just needing a short term 1 or 2 year max UFA to come and take some of the minutes Franson has been playing and buy a bit more development time for Granberg, Percy, Finn, etc.

Salo, Robidas, Stralman, Fayne, Gilbert, Fayne, Niskanen, Zidlicky, Morris are all righties handling 18+ minutes this season for their teams this year.

Vets like Mitchell, Quincey, Hainsey, Orpik are also out there.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

I think there are plenty of other options other than Girardi that would fit in really well, especially in terms of veterans.

Morris, Weaver, Timonen, Boyle, Orpik, Robidas, Mitchell, Sarich and Greene are all solid veteran defenders that would add a lot to our younger core. Good stop gap options until Rielly gets better and stronger, and while Percy and the rest keep developing.

There's a couple younger defensemen that would be interesting but they are not likely going to make it to UFA. Fayne, Niskanen, MacDonald, Nikitin and Meszaros come to mind.

They are obviously not Norris trophy caliber players but not many defenders like Ryan Suter or Zdeno Chara make it to free agency these days. Girardi is likely to be either grossly overpaid (Call it the Clarkson effect), and/or retained by the Rangers or wherever he's traded. I'm not sure we should be overpaying for a #3-4 defender.

Solid defenders, yes, but still not really what we need. What we need on defense is somebody to play with Phaneuf. Anything less than that, and it's not worth paying UFA prices and term for stop-gaps that aren't much of an upgrade on what we already have or will have.

I don't really see any of those names fitting in as a #2 defender next to Phaneuf. Some of them are more offensive guys, and some of them are just old and on the fast decline.

The point anyway, was that we will not need huge amounts of cap space available to sign any big-name guys. Yeah, we may sign a cheap veteran to a short deal if one is available, but I doubt we are going shopping this off-season. If we get a defender, it will probably be the return for Reimer/Franson, not a UFA signing.

We have some young defenders that are getting close to. One of Percy, Granberg, Brennan, or Holzer could be ready next year.

This should not be a worry.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Classic OP. Find a couple day period where we are 1st in an arbitrary, meaningless cap projection that means absolutely nothing to the health or future of this team, made even less relevant by the fact that it is calculated using different amounts of players on each team, and it affecting each team differently with varying injuries.

Not to mention that we likely aren't looking to add much of anything at the trade deadline (nor should we), and the cap and our cap situation will be entirely different next year. On top of all that, we're not even 1st anymore (Washington is), so looks about time to close this thread up.

We actually could also have more cap space then people anticipate due to the Olympics.

I just looked on capgeek and it counts 195 days which appears to include the Olympics.

Over the Olympic period the Leafs could send Holland, Ashton, Bodie, Smith and accumulate some cap relief for those two weeks.

If we dealt Fraser who isn't ever being used for a late round pick (or even waived him) we could also net some additional cap relief.

Combine the Olympic break with the fact that we shouldn't pay the crazy deadline prices to bring in upgrades and it'd appear we'll be just fine with the cap.

 

[Bardown warrior]

If anyone didn't know

Bettman tells BOG that cap will increase for 2014-15



I know you knew this Mess, but it doesn't seem as scary with another ~$6.5 Million.

Coupled with the fact that we have some buyouts coming off the books next year... ala tucker and armstrong