Cap world - Comparison of Leafs with competitors

[PromisedLand]

So here is what the comparison looks like

Assuming Leafs have to go through ECF I will focus on Atlantic Division and handpick Metro teams who I think may end up in ECF again next season

ATLANTIC
LEAFS: Matthews (11.6), Tavares, (11), Marner (11), Nylander (7), Rielly (7.5)
Total: 48 million for 5 guys. If Matthews and Nylander re-up at approx 2M increase each that is about 52 million for 5 guys

Bruins: Pasta (11.25), Marchand (6.1), McAvoy (9.5), Lindholm (6.5), Ullmark (5), Zacha (4.75), Debrusk (4)
Total: 47.1 million for 7 guys (including a goalie) still less than Leafs for just 5 guys (not including Matthews/Nylander raises)

Florida: Barkov (10), Tkachuk (9.5), Rienhart (6.5), Bennet (4.5), Verhaeghe (4.1), Ekblad (7.5), Montour (3.5), Bob (10)
Total: 55.6 million for 8 guys (including goalie), factor in 2M each increase for Willy/Matthews that is 4M more in spending for 3 more guys

Tampa: Kucherov (9.5), Point (9.5), Stamkos (8), Hedman (7.8), Sergachev (8.5), Vasy (9.5)
Total: 53.3 million for 6 guys (including a goalie), factor in 2M each raises for Willy/Matthews that is just 1.2M more in spending for 1 extra guy -> vezina winning goalie btw, also have a norris winning d-man, art-ross winner (kuch), rocket winner (stamkos) and selke candidate that produces (point). Not to mention they have 3 SCF appearances and 2 cups to go with it.

Ottawa (potential new competitor): Brady (8.2), Stutzle (8.4), Giroux (6.5), Batherson (5), Chabot (8), Chychrun (4.6), Korpisalo (4)
Total: approx 45 million for 7 guys (including a goalie) still less than leafs for just 5 guys (not including Matthews/Nylander raises)

Sabres: Tage (7), Skinner (9), Cozens (7), Tuch (4.8), Dahlin (6, rumoured new contract at 9), Samuelson (4.2)
Total: approx 38 million (41 if include Dahlin's rumoured contract), for 6 guys excluding goalie. That is less than the Leafs for 1 additional core peice.

METRO
Devils: Hischier (7.25), Bratt (7.8), Huges (8), Meier (8.8), Palat (6), Hamilton (9), Marino (4.4), Seighenthaler (3.4)
Total: Approx 54 million for 8 guys excluding goalie. That is 2M more if you factor in Willy/Matthews raises for 3 more guys.

Canes: Aho (8.5 rumoured new contract ceieling is 10.5), Teravainen (5.4), Bunting (4.5), Kotka (4.8), Svechnikov (7.8), Orlov (7.8), Slavin (5.3), Burns (5.3), Skjei (5.3) -> (exclude goalie and Pesce)
Total: Approx 54M for 9 guys (56M if factor in Aho's extension); just 2M more for 4 more guys compared to leafs if you factor in Matthews and Willy raises of aproox 2M each.


Comments:
You can do this for other metro teams if you want. I think Devils and Canes are potential ECF finalists anyway.

For atlantic, redwings are a dark horse with no true star power, so not looking at them and habs are potentially still in rebuild phase so not looking at them either but the suzuki and caufield deals aren't that bad to begin with.

One cannot compete in this league with the kind of cap allocation and structure Leafs have. Dubas and Shanahan have completely screwed the Leafs.

IMO it is better to take a few steps back and re-tool and not push for cup runs at least until Tavares is on the cap. We just can't compete in our own conference and division, forget about winning the cup.

Treliving has to completely restructure the crap that is dubas' doing under shanahan umbrella. IMO we gotta be patient and just miss playoffs next season, draft high and then re-evaluate. Note we don't have 2025 first rounder either because dubas traded that too.

its a mess but IMO a patient and prudent approach with a foresight is required here. Going for cup runs until Tavares is on the cap with ridiculous increases to Matthews, Nylander and potentially Marner is not the way to move forward as a franchise.

We gotta make hay when the sun shines, the sun ain't shining anymore, gotta wait till sun is shining for the Leafs after Tavares is off the cap.

Click to read more...

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

The Leafs well thought out cap strategy has them currently in the position of being the only team in the NHL that is still over the limit even after LTIR is accounted for.

Does anyone actually believe in Studs'n'Duds anymore? That putting half your cap into four forwards is a viable strategy for success? That filling out the majority of the roster with league minimum replacement level fodder is a good idea?

I know I don't.

If signing four forwards to half the cap was a legitimate means to success, you'd see more teams doing it. It isn't, it never was, and it never will be. It's a phenomenon unique to the Leafs alone.

Probably for good reason.

And it goes a long way toward explaining why the Leafs find themselves in the unique position they are in today of being the only team unable to meet cap requirements if the season started tomorrow.

 

[Leafshater67]

Going all in on 4 proven losers who have not once dug deep to win is a losing strategy. One of the core 4 MUST go unless they’re all willing to resign for more team friendly deals to bring in the missing piece.

If I were Treliving, I’d be trying to get a Nylander for Pesce deal done. Someone needs to be made an example of. This team is one of the most prolific group of chokers in NHL history. Doubling down and holding nobody accountable every year will always have the same result. This team is rotten at the core.

 

[notbias]

What I've gathered from this is that the Leafs should make sure their star players are bad and then get better after they sign their contracts.

Also, not sure who else you did this for, but Tampa's caps are off (at least Stamkos), and you'd think Cirelli and Cernak would be in the core with their cap hits and signing them for so long...

It's weird who you pick and choose from each team to fit your narrative.

 

[notbias]

If signing four forwards to half the cap was a legitimate means to success, you'd see more teams doing it. It isn't, it never was, and it never will be. It's a phenomenon unique to the Leafs alone.

Very, very, silly argument.

That's like saying "Tampa won the cup with over 10% of their cap tied up in a starter, that is the road to success".

That works if your goalie is Vasi.

Every team has different cap allocations because no team has the exact same constructions of players, it is weird how obsessed people are with the cap and maximizing every dollar, but they will ignore that Florida just had 6 million in dead cap.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Very, very, silly argument.

That's like saying "Tampa won the cup with over 10% of their cap tied up in a starter, that is the road to success".

That works if your goalie is Vasi.

Every team has different cap allocations because no team has the exact same constructions of players, it is weird how obsessed people are with the cap and maximizing every dollar, but they will ignore that Florida just had 6 million in dead cap.

It's well known that the NHL is a copycat league.

If the Leafs won, or even had any measure of success, with the four forward experiment, more teams would be doing it. It was widely publicized as an unconventional rebuild at the time, even from the Leafs organization itself. Unfortunately for the Leafs, tradition is a good thing, that's why it's a tradition.

And the traditional method of building from the net out still appears to be the best method of allocating resources.

 

[Frostitute]

Did Dubas F us majorly with these huge contracts? Absolutely. Could he forsee Covid happening and the cap not moving for YEARS? Absolutely not. It was bad timing on these deals to start right before the pandemic hit and of we are being honest these contracts not only wouldnt have looked bad but most likely would have been looking very good about 2yrs in had things happened the way they always did. So many deals that people compare our stars contracts to started just before or just after ours were signed. Which, again, was at the worst possible time. Now they are expiring when the cap is expected to rise again, wuddya know? We just got majorly unlucky imo here and feels more like part of our "curse" than anything tbh. Dubas was an occasional dumbass, but I dont blame the pandemic on him. That being said, man is that Tavares contract looking bad. I wish the league had granted teams a buyout option after all this BS. We'd be in much better shape.

 

[Peasy]

What I've gathered from this is that the Leafs should make sure their star players are bad and then get better after they sign their contracts.

Also, not sure who else you did this for, but Tampa's caps are off (at least Stamkos), and you'd think Cirelli and Cernak would be in the core with their cap hits and signing them for so long...

It's weird who you pick and choose from each team to fit your narrative.

Or they could have been proactive and signed them before breaking out... Anyone with a brain could have predicted Marner to explode playing next to Tavares. Dubas had that option, but decided he needed Nylander signed before he started to discuss an extension with Matthews/Marner.

A complete rookie move by a rookie gm.

Hughes, signed right before his break out. If you paid attention you knew the break out was going to happen. Same thing with Stutzle. Thompson, late bloomer, but again locked him down on a reasonable contract after a solid break out and then his game exploded even more. Imagine Buffalo waited to sign him to an extension? It would be probably close to 10m at this point.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nice work, but I don't think it really shows anything that all (or at least most) of us didn't already know.

Ok, Dubas really messed up with signing Tavares, and compounded it by overpaying (or at least overpaying too soon) Matthews and Marner, and to a lesser extent Nylander, and further compounded it by handing out NTCs like candy.

Yes, we have a badly built team, primarily because of Dubas (and Shanahan, if he's also culpable).

What can be done about it? That's what's important, not showing the numbers or laying the blame. Here are three possible options:

Suffer through the next two years until the Tavares fiasco expires, and we may have some money to spend on better support players. One thing we really have to do in that situation is to stop throwing away picks and prospects on futile bandaid and quick-fix solutions.

Trade Nylander. He's the only one 'movable' of the big five, and since he's not overpaid, would likely bring us the best (relative) return. Not great, especially since he and Rielly were our best playoff performers this year. Plus it's just about guaranteed he'll come back and bite us big time if we do.

Try to talk at least one of Matthews, Marner, and Tavares into waving their NTC. Obviously Tavares would be the best to get rid of, but probably the hardest to trade, and likely the hardest to get to waive. Any of the three would almost certainly have a very select list of possible destinations.


I suppose another option is to become an Argos (or whatever) fan and forego hockey.

 

[TakeTheBody]

I'm really liking the fact that the Wings aren't included in the Atlantic.

 

[mydnyte]

if you want to do this properly, use % of cap hit the year the deal was signed ...as $$ is useless as a comparison tool.

 

[notDatsyuk]

if you want to do this properly, use % of cap hit the year the deal was signed ...as $$ is useless as a comparison tool.

I think % is proper when discussing value of contracts, but not when talking about the actual dollars spent, which is more the topic here.

 

[mydnyte]

I think % is proper when discussing value of contracts, but not when talking about the actual dollars spent, which is more the topic here.

not really ...when you are trying to say one team overpaid a player and the other didnt, the cap% at the time signed is the only way to make a fair and equal assessment.

 

[notDatsyuk]

not really ...when you are trying to say one team overpaid a player and the other didnt, the cap% at the time signed is the only way to make a fair and equal assessments

Yes, but I don't think the op was talking about overpaying players, but having too much invested in too few.

Not assessing individual contracts, but team balance.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The Leafs well thought out cap strategy has them currently in the position of being the only team in the NHL that is still over the limit even after LTIR is accounted for.

Does anyone actually believe in Studs'n'Duds anymore? That putting half your cap into four forwards is a viable strategy for success? That filling out the majority of the roster with league minimum replacement level fodder is a good idea?

I know I don't.

If signing four forwards to half the cap was a legitimate means to success, you'd see more teams doing it. It isn't, it never was, and it never will be. It's a phenomenon unique to the Leafs alone.

Probably for good reason.

And it goes a long way toward explaining why the Leafs find themselves in the unique position they are in today of being the only team unable to meet cap requirements if the season started tomorrow.

Very well stated .. here here .. 4 forwards getting half AAV in a CAP world = no Cups .. hockey is a game of D and G .. offense always dries up in playoffs .. it is not a Leaf phenomenon .. it is a hundred year old formula .. Dubie thinking he could change da world was da real joke here .. and Shanny believing him even funnier

 

[mjd1001]

I agree with most of your original post. The Leafs do not have any bargain deals among their big stars. Other teams do. But that doesn't mean they can't win the cup or at least be a top team in the league.

They may not have any bargains in their top 4, but there aren't any total busts there either. You are paying a premium but you are getting star players for that premium with all 4. Are there faults? yes. But the production is there.

Now, without a few bargains sprinkled in there you may not have the chance to be a dominant, presidents trophy candidate team year after year after year...but you DO have a team that is capable of beating any other team on any given night. You have the 'punchers chance' when you get to the playoffs. Buffalo and New Jersey look like they might have some really good bargains on their team, but the Leafs are and have been an elite team for the past 2-3 years and will be for at least a couple more. The Leafs are in the window now. Jersey is just entering it. Ottawa and Buffalo aren't there yet. So yes, some of the teams you listed might be better long-term, but you aren't competing against those teams while you are in the peak of your window.

So yes, It would be great if the Leafs core-4 would cost them a few million dollars less. Yes, the team COULD be better with the money they could get from those savings. But they are close to where they need to be in order to be a top team, and nothing I see in the near future shows me a sign that they will be 'totally screwed' because of contracts. A slight to moderate overpay on a contract doesn't kill you...what does kill you is when you give a big contract to a player and he is a bust. There are no total busts here.

 

[conFABulator]

Very well stated .. here here .. 4 forwards getting half AAV in a CAP world = no Cups .. hockey is a game of D and G .. offense always dries up in playoffs .. it is not a Leaf phenomenon .. it is a hundred year old formula .. Dubie thinking he could change da world was da real joke here .. and Shanny believing him even funnier

You can also point to about 28 other strategies that haven't won a cup in the past five years.

We all know that if the cap hadn't remained flat this whole analysis would look much different. We would have four players taking up ~40% of the cap and possibly so would other teams. These contacts were signed with a rising cap in mind for sure. If there was a mistake it might have been in not moving one of them once we learned the cap would not be going up fo a few years. Even that statement might benefit from hindsight a bit. Dubas had the bad luck of signing four big deals months before Covid hit and I don't think we blame him for not anticipating a global pandemic.

So far, we have kept our core together and continued to progress. This year in particular we see our divisional foes all weakened by the same cap we are under. There is not doubt that Tampa, Boston and probably Florida are weaker than last year, however Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa are improving.

I am still a supporty the of moving by Nylander in a trade that improves our D while giving us increased depth with prospects, picks, and/or cap space. I am not sure such a trade exists.

This team looks to me to be stronger than the one we went into last season with. How many cup contenders can say the same thing? Maybe Carolina?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

You can also point to about 28 other strategies that haven't won a cup in the past five years.

We all know that if the cap hadn't remained flat this whole analysis would look much different. We would have four players taking up ~40% of the cap and possibly so would other teams. These contacts were signed with a rising cap in mind for sure. If there was a mistake it might have been in not moving one of them once we learned the cap would not be going up fo a few years. Even that statement might benefit from hindsight a bit. Dubas had the bad luck of signing four big deals months before Covid hit and I don't think we blame him for not anticipating a global pandemic.

So far, we have kept our core together and continued to progress. This year in particular we see our divisional foes all weakened by the same cap we are under. There is not doubt that Tampa, Boston and probably Florida are weaker than last year, however Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa are improving.

I am still a supporty the of moving by Nylander in a trade that improves our D while giving us increased depth with prospects, picks, and/or cap space. I am not sure such a trade exists.

This team looks to me to be stronger than the one we went into last season with. How many cup contenders can say the same thing? Maybe Carolina?

Leafs are no Cup contender my friend .. 1 2nd round appearance in 7 years???? .. yes are a playoff team as scoring helps win games in regular season that is true .. but we are so far from a Cup contender it is not even remotely close .. in East a healthy Tampa, Florida , Carolina and Rangers are cup contenders .. that it .. until we make DEFENSE and TENDER our 1st priority along with 2 centers we are going nowhere fast .. we have Matty and Rielly and that is nowhere near enough

 

[Dekes For Days]

Or they could have been proactive and signed them before breaking out...Anyone with a brain could have predicted Marner to explode playing next to Tavares.

It's almost like it takes two sides to sign a deal. Our RFAs had brains too and had zero reason to sign a year early, especially with a coach that had misused them, abused them, and neutered their earning potential as much as possible.

 

[conFABulator]

Leafs are no Cup contender my friend .. 1 2nd round appearance in 7 years???? .. yes are a playoff team as scoring helps win games in regular season that is true .. but we are so far from a Cup contender it is not even remotely close .. in East a healthy Tampa, Florida , Carolina and Rangers are cup contenders .. that it .. until we make DEFENSE and TENDER our 1st priority along with 2 centers we are going nowhere fast .. we have Matty and Rielly and that is nowhere near enough

Awesome, apart from your arbitrary opinion can you tell me what defines a "cup contender"?

My definition would be a team that is likely to finish in the top 8 regular season, maybe one that is considered a cup favourite by the betting sites every year, one that was THE cup favourite after the first round this past season.

Maybe you could also tell me what makes the Rangers a cup contender and not the Leafs? Carolina? Is it there recent playoff record? Is it Andersen?

 

[Peasy]

It's almost like it takes two sides to sign a deal. Our RFAs had brains too and had zero reason to sign a year early, especially with a coach that had misused them, abused them, and neutered their earning potential as much as possible.

There were reports of long term deals for both Matthews and Marner. Marner was something like 9x8 before the season started. Its was Dubas' idea it was best to wait until Nylander signed. But Dubas can do no wrong in your eyes.

 

[Fogelhund]

It really sucks that the Leafs draft picks excelled right away, in an unprecedented way, followed by a pandemic flattening the cap. It really sucks that Matthews keeps having wrist injuries and that concussion Tavares has sucks too.

The angry bitter crowd can blame anyone and everyone they want to, but most of this comes down to players performing exceptionally before their ELC ended and the pandemic.

Moving forward, without a fully healthy Matthews, nothing else really matters. The cap doesn’t matter, the other players don’t matter, it really doesn’t matter at all.

So go ahead, start a new thread to express your pain and suffering, to go along with countless other grievance posts. All the mental gymnastics in the world, all the anger doesn’t change the realities of the situation… the core four were overpaid by a collective $1.5 mil to $2 mil, not enough to really make a difference.

The reality is, they weren’t good enough when it mattered, or they were hurt. Surrounding them with a different cast wasn’t going to make the difference, having a few extra bucks wasn’t either. Either this group is healthy and figured it out one day, or it doesn’t. Nylander at $9.2 or 9.8 won’t make the difference and neither will Matthews at $12.0 or 13.

If these guys don’t perform, it doesn’t matter if their cap hit was zero.

But carry on with your grievance and mental gymnastics. I’m sure it’s fun and customer service will be with you soon enough.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There were reports of long term deals for both Matthews and Marner. Marner was something like 9x8 before the season started.

No there weren't. The only "reports" about Marner in the 2nd offseason were that he wanted to wait and play out the season. 9m x 8 (or 8.5, or 8... seems to keep changing) is just a myth some HFboards user started spreading a year later based on absolutely nothing, and it caught on and people started claiming it as fact.
Our players were never going to sign early. Lou and Babcock made sure of that.

 

[ACC1224]

There were reports of long term deals for both Matthews and Marner. Marner was something like 9x8 before the season started. Its was Dubas' idea it was best to wait until Nylander signed. But Dubas can do no wrong in your eyes.

8.5 for Marner, no idea about Matthews.
What could have been? Oh well, no going back.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

It really sucks that the Leafs draft picks excelled right away, in an unprecedented way, followed by a pandemic flattening the cap. It really sucks that Matthews keeps having wrist injuries and that concussion Tavares has sucks too.

The angry bitter crowd can blame anyone and everyone they want to, but most of this comes down to players performing exceptionally before their ELC ended and the pandemic.

Moving forward, without a fully healthy Matthews, nothing else really matters. The cap doesn’t matter, the other players don’t matter, it really doesn’t matter at all.

So go ahead, start a new thread to express your pain and suffering, to go along with countless other grievance posts. All the mental gymnastics in the world, all the anger doesn’t change the realities of the situation… the core four were overpaid by a collective $1.5 mil to $2 mil, not enough to really make a difference.

The reality is, they weren’t good enough when it mattered, or they were hurt. Surrounding them with a different cast wasn’t going to make the difference, having a few extra bucks wasn’t either. Either this group is healthy and figured it out one day, or it doesn’t. Nylander at $9.2 or 9.8 won’t make the difference and neither will Matthews at $12.0 or 13.

If these guys don’t perform, it doesn’t matter if their cap hit was zero.

But carry on with your grievance and mental gymnastics. I’m sure it’s fun and customer service will be with you soon enough.

That $2 million could've gone towards keeping Hyman, who's now a 30 goal, 80+ point winger. Or it could've gone towards keeping a guy like Acciari beyond last season, or Schenn. An extra $2 million may have allowed the Leafs to make a competitive offer for Tanev in 2020 instead of bargain shopping Bogosian (Leafs would've had to have avoided other bargain names like Simmonds, Thornton, Boyd, Vesey). Hell an extra $2 million potentially means that the Marleau trade doesn't have to happen and the Leafs could've drafted Seth Jarvis with their pick instead of sending it to Carolina to dump Marleau.

At the end of the day the stars haven't been good enough when it counts, but I think dismissing the money that could've been available if they weren't overpaid is naive. If Stamkos and/or Kucherov were making an extra $2 million in 2020 they wouldn't have been able to afford Coleman, who was instrumental in their two cups. An extra $2 million taken by Stone and/or Pietrangelo on Vegas would have made Stephenson unaffordable, and the man had 10 goals and 20 points en route to a cup. An extra $2 million taken up by Rantanen if he were desperate for that prestigious $10 million number that Nylander is apparently obsessed with would mean no Nichushkin for their Cup run.

Every million counts. God forbid our boys cut the team a small break to try and build a winner. If they aren't taking up the exact cap percentage that their comparables demand then they aren't signing I guess. Who cares if they're still filthy stinking rich regardless if they leave $500,000 to $1,000,000 a year on the table, you can be damn sure they'll still fight tooth and nail to get what could be made up for in endorsement money.