Cap world - Comparison of Leafs with competitors

[myleafs]

So far, we have kept our core together and continued to progress. This year in particular we see our divisional foes all weakened by the same cap we are under. There is not doubt that Tampa, Boston and probably Florida are weaker than last year, however Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa are improving.

I am still a supporty the of moving by Nylander in a trade that improves our D while giving us increased depth with prospects, picks, and/or cap space. I am not sure such a trade exists.

This team looks to me to be stronger than the one we went into last season with. How many cup contenders can say the same thing? Maybe Carolina?

I guess if we just keep repeating the bolded every year then one of these years that will actually happen?

 

[Da Cool Rula]

The price the Leafs have to pay for players inToronto. Taxes and pressure of playing in hockey Mecca of the world maybe? Or Dubas.mistake?

 

[Antropovsky]

It's almost like it takes two sides to sign a deal. Our RFAs had brains too and had zero reason to sign a year early, especially with a coach that had misused them, abused them, and neutered their earning potential as much as possible.

How did he neuter their potential earnings?

 

[Antropovsky]

The price the Leafs have to pay for players inToronto. Taxes and pressure of playing in hockey Mecca of the world maybe? Or Dubas.mistake?

The only leaf with a ridiculous contract is Marner.

Even in hindsight I sign that same deal for Tavares.

Tavares was offered an extra year at 11 million by the islanders and was offered more money by San Jose.

= He actually took the worse of three offers. And he's for some reason #$%& on, despite respectable seasons.

Matthews....franchise center, elite goal scorer, paced 47 goals and 88 points playing with Kapanen, Johnsson and Marleau. If he makes it to RFA.. He gets offers from any team with cap space and if they don't have it they would make it for him.

= reasonable deal

 

[Gabriel426]

The only leaf with a ridiculous contract is Marner.

Even in hindsight I sign that same deal for Tavares.

Tavares was offered an extra year at 11 million by the islanders and was offered more money by San Jose.

= He actually took the worse of three offers. And he's for some reason #$%& on, despite respectable seasons.

Matthews....franchise center, elite goal scorer, paced 47 goals and 88 points playing with Kapanen, Johnsson and Marleau. If he makes it to RFA.. He gets offers from any team with cap space and if they don't have it they would make it for him.

= reasonable deal

Thats too harsh for MM.
JT is not as advertise as he is really not that good on defense and not someone who raises their game when the going get tough.

 

[conFABulator]

I guess if we just keep repeating the bolded every year then one of these years that will actually happen?

There is some truth to that. Windows close while others open. We knew that Tampa and Boston wer stronger than us and we hoped that age would catch up with them and that years of contending would deplete their prospect and draft capital. This is what happens.

This is what makes our window now. The problem of course is that it is not just OUR window. Carolina should be thinking the same thing, Buffalo and Ottawa and Detroit are looking at US and Carolina along with Tampa and Boston thinking we may age out also.

This is why you have changing of the guards. We should be doubling down over the next two to four years. That might mean trading a young star (Nylande) for something that gives us a better chance over th next coupo of years.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Very well stated .. here here .. 4 forwards getting half AAV in a CAP world = no Cups .. hockey is a game of D and G .. offense always dries up in playoffs .. it is not a Leaf phenomenon .. it is a hundred year old formula .. Dubie thinking he could change da world was da real joke here .. and Shanny believing him even funnier

Thanks for the response.

It's so hard to believe Shanahan fell for Dubas' baloney for so long.

Treliving brought in Markstrom and built a much better defense in Calgary than I've seen on the Leafs in decades.

I'm really hoping he re-balances the asset allocation model used by the Leafs under Dubas the last five years.

 

[Notsince67]

So here is what the comparison looks like

Assuming Leafs have to go through ECF I will focus on Atlantic Division and handpick Metro teams who I think may end up in ECF again next season

ATLANTIC
LEAFS: Matthews (11.6), Tavares, (11), Marner (11), Nylander (7), Rielly (7.5)
Total: 48 million for 5 guys. If Matthews and Nylander re-up at approx 2M increase each that is about 52 million for 5 guys

Bruins: Pasta (11.25), Marchand (6.1), McAvoy (9.5), Lindholm (6.5), Ullmark (5), Zacha (4.75), Debrusk (4)
Total: 47.1 million for 7 guys (including a goalie) still less than Leafs for just 5 guys (not including Matthews/Nylander raises)

Florida: Barkov (10), Tkachuk (9.5), Rienhart (6.5), Bennet (4.5), Verhaeghe (4.1), Ekblad (7.5), Montour (3.5), Bob (10)
Total: 55.6 million for 8 guys (including goalie), factor in 2M each increase for Willy/Matthews that is 4M more in spending for 3 more guys

Tampa: Kucherov (9.5), Point (9.5), Stamkos (8), Hedman (7.8), Sergachev (8.5), Vasy (9.5)
Total: 53.3 million for 6 guys (including a goalie), factor in 2M each raises for Willy/Matthews that is just 1.2M more in spending for 1 extra guy -> vezina winning goalie btw, also have a norris winning d-man, art-ross winner (kuch), rocket winner (stamkos) and selke candidate that produces (point). Not to mention they have 3 SCF appearances and 2 cups to go with it.

Ottawa (potential new competitor): Brady (8.2), Stutzle (8.4), Giroux (6.5), Batherson (5), Chabot (8), Chychrun (4.6), Korpisalo (4)
Total: approx 45 million for 7 guys (including a goalie) still less than leafs for just 5 guys (not including Matthews/Nylander raises)

Sabres: Tage (7), Skinner (9), Cozens (7), Tuch (4.8), Dahlin (6, rumoured new contract at 9), Samuelson (4.2)
Total: approx 38 million (41 if include Dahlin's rumoured contract), for 6 guys excluding goalie. That is less than the Leafs for 1 additional core peice.

METRO
Devils: Hischier (7.25), Bratt (7.8), Huges (8), Meier (8.8), Palat (6), Hamilton (9), Marino (4.4), Seighenthaler (3.4)
Total: Approx 54 million for 8 guys excluding goalie. That is 2M more if you factor in Willy/Matthews raises for 3 more guys.

Canes: Aho (8.5 rumoured new contract ceieling is 10.5), Teravainen (5.4), Bunting (4.5), Kotka (4.8), Svechnikov (7.8), Orlov (7.8), Slavin (5.3), Burns (5.3), Skjei (5.3) -> (exclude goalie and Pesce)
Total: Approx 54M for 9 guys (56M if factor in Aho's extension); just 2M more for 4 more guys compared to leafs if you factor in Matthews and Willy raises of aproox 2M each.


Comments:
You can do this for other metro teams if you want. I think Devils and Canes are potential ECF finalists anyway.

For atlantic, redwings are a dark horse with no true star power, so not looking at them and habs are potentially still in rebuild phase so not looking at them either but the suzuki and caufield deals aren't that bad to begin with.

One cannot compete in this league with the kind of cap allocation and structure Leafs have. Dubas and Shanahan have completely screwed the Leafs.

IMO it is better to take a few steps back and re-tool and not push for cup runs at least until Tavares is on the cap. We just can't compete in our own conference and division, forget about winning the cup.

Treliving has to completely restructure the crap that is dubas' doing under shanahan umbrella. IMO we gotta be patient and just miss playoffs next season, draft high and then re-evaluate. Note we don't have 2025 first rounder either because dubas traded that too.

its a mess but IMO a patient and prudent approach with a foresight is required here. Going for cup runs until Tavares is on the cap with ridiculous increases to Matthews, Nylander and potentially Marner is not the way to move forward as a franchise.

We gotta make hay when the sun shines, the sun ain't shining anymore, gotta wait till sun is shining for the Leafs after Tavares is off the cap.

What is magic about 5 guys? Seems like an arbitrary number to make a point. How about 8 or 10?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Awesome, apart from your arbitrary opinion can you tell me what defines a "cup contender"?

My definition would be a team that is likely to finish in the top 8 regular season, maybe one that is considered a cup favourite by the betting sites every year, one that was THE cup favourite after the first round this past season.

Maybe you could also tell me what makes the Rangers a cup contender and not the Leafs? Carolina? Is it there recent playoff record? Is it Andersen?

Regular season finish has ZERO to do with playoff success .. you can build an all offense team to do well in regular season .. but playoff hockey da rules/refs are different .. it is an extremely difficult MIX to get right .. it is why 8th place teams can win cups in NHL .. you need enough D and G to win .. it may hurt you in regular season hockey but it helps in playoff hockey .. there is a ton more involved in roster construction too but bottom line regular season pro hockey is a different game than playoff hockey

 

[notDatsyuk]

Awesome, apart from your arbitrary opinion can you tell me what defines a "cup contender"?

My definition would be a team that is likely to finish in the top 8 regular season, maybe one that is considered a cup favourite by the betting sites every year, one that was THE cup favourite after the first round this past season.

Maybe you could also tell me what makes the Rangers a cup contender and not the Leafs? Carolina? Is it there recent playoff record? Is it Andersen?

Regular season success has little to do with playoff success.

Gambling odds are based more on bets made than on liklihood of winning.

Reminds me of a scene in an old W. C. Fields movie when he's going to play poker with someone:
Sucker: Is this a game of chance?
Fields: Not the way I play it.

 

[conFABulator]

Regular season finish has ZERO to do with playoff success .. you can build an all offense team to do well in regular season .. but playoff hockey da rules/refs are different .. it is an extremely difficult MIX to get right .. it is why 8th place teams can win cups in NHL .. you need enough D and G to win .. it may hurt you in regular season hockey but it helps in playoff hockey .. there is a ton more involved in roster construction too but bottom line regular season pro hockey is a different game than playoff hockey

No, I get that is how you feel. I was just wondering why you listed Carolina and NYR as contenders when contrasting the Leafs as non-contenders?

i think the Rangers have won ONE more playoff series than the Leafs have in the past five years and they really showed nothing in last year's playoffs. Carolina has been swept in the last four conference finals they have been in. They didn't take a game from the Panthers this year. Their goalie is Andersen.

Again, why are these guys contenders exactly?

Regular season success has little to do with playoff success.

Gambling odds are based more on bets made than on liklihood of winning.

Reminds me of a scene in an old W. C. Fields movie when he's going to play poker with someone:
Sucker: Is this a game of chance?
Fields: Not the way I play it.

Maybe you can answer my actual question though, since the OP didn't; if the Leafs are not to be considered cup contenders why are Carolina and the Rangers?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

No, I get that is how you feel. I was just wondering why you listed Carolina and NYR as contenders when contrasting the Leafs as non-contenders?

i think the Rangers have won ONE more playoff series than the Leafs have in the past five years and they really showed nothing in last year's playoffs. Carolina has been swept in the last four conference finals they have been in. They didn't take a game from the Panthers this year. Their goalie is Andersen.

Again, why are these guys contenders exactly?


Maybe you can answer my actual qu arion though, since the OP didn't; if the Leafs are not to be considered cup contenders why are Carolina and the Rangers?

Freddy won't play in playoffs when it matters but he is a decent regular season tender with ups/downs .. rangers are a much bigger and faster team than Leafs which will give them a punchers chance .. our Leafs are too slow and too small to play playoff hockey .. it will take some time to reconstruct this roster but I don't see Shanny as guy to do it anymore .. 1st he made a huge mistake with a non playing rook gm and then he hired da bosses friends kid .. you can see he is lost and blame mlse for that they hired a rook prez too .. now i really like Shanny and that won't change whether he is prez of leafs or not

 

[conFABulator]

Freddy won't play in playoffs when it matters but he is a decent regular season tender with ups/downs .. rangers are a much bigger and faster team than Leafs which will give them a punchers chance .. our Leafs are too slow and too small to play playoff hockey .. it will take some time to reconstruct this roster but I don't see Shanny as guy to do it anymore .. 1st he made a huge mistake with a non playing rook gm and then he hired da bosses friends kid .. you can see he is lost and blame mlse for that they hired a rook prez too .. now i really like Shanny and that won't change whether he is prez of leafs or not

I see...so your moving target of an answer is that "teams in need goaltending be to a Tru cup contender" but that Carolina is a contender because "Freddy won't play in the playoffs"? Huh?

You also say that regular season results don't matter and that it is all about playoff success, but when I point out that the Rangers have no more playoff success than the Leafs you say they are much "bigger and faster than the Leafs". It seems sort of arbitrary, no? If size and speed matters so much why has NYR not made playoff noise yet?

I don't think you have done a good job at all of explaining why you consider Carolina and NYR to be contenders and not the Leafs. It seems arbitrary at best. Do you want to take another run at it?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Maybe you can answer my actual qu arion though, since the OP didn't; if the Leafs are not to be considered cup contenders why are Carolina and the Rangers?

My response was to your 'definition' of contender. Sorry, I can't explain why someone else thinks Carolina and the Rangers are contenders.

 

[Azail]

I see...so your moving target of an answer is that "teams in need goaltending be to a Tru cup contender" but that Carolina is a contender because "Freddy won't play in the playoffs"? Huh?

You also say that regular season results don't matter and that it is all about playoff success, but when I point out that the Rangers have no more playoff success than the Leafs you say they are much "bigger and faster than the Leafs". It seems sort of arbitrary, no? If size and speed matters so much why has NYR not made playoff noise yet?

I don't think you have done a good job at all of explaining why you consider Carolina and NYR to be contenders and not the Leafs. It seems arbitrary at best. Do you want to take another run at it?

It's the same schtick they all say. He points out goaltending is massive importance as if Adin Hill is some world beater, and Bob wasn't absolute garbage the last 2-3 years and got hot for 2 weeks before coming back to earth in the finals.

Everyone is doing better than the Leafs in those posters eyes, besides the fact that one team wins every year. Most of the reason they believe this is their hatred towards Dubas, hence their answers don't make any sense when you ask them to explain themselves. I don't even really care who the GM is, but their bias' is obvious.

 

[conFABulator]

My response was to your 'definition' of contender. Sorry, I can't explain why someone else thinks Carolina and the Rangers are contenders.

That's fair. So, who are the cup contenders in the east then?

 

[Gary Nylund]

The only leaf with a ridiculous contract is Marner.

Even in hindsight I sign that same deal for Tavares.

Tavares was offered an extra year at 11 million by the islanders and was offered more money by San Jose.

= He actually took the worse of three offers. And he's for some reason #$%& on, despite respectable seasons.

Matthews....franchise center, elite goal scorer, paced 47 goals and 88 points playing with Kapanen, Johnsson and Marleau. If he makes it to RFA.. He gets offers from any team with cap space and if they don't have it they would make it for him.

= reasonable deal

LOL You might be the only one.

There is some truth to that. Windows close while others open. We knew that Tampa and Boston wer stronger than us and we hoped that age would catch up with them and that years of contending would deplete their prospect and draft capital. This is what happens.

This is what makes our window now. The problem of course is that it is not just OUR window. Carolina should be thinking the same thing, Buffalo and Ottawa and Detroit are looking at US and Carolina along with Tampa and Boston thinking we may age out also.

This is why you have changing of the guards. We should be doubling down over the next two to four years. That might mean trading a young star (Nylande) for something that gives us a better chance over th next coupo of years.

Another problem (and a big one) is that we've been acting as if our window is now for so many years now, and as a result we have hardly any futures left.

Picture a scenario where we kept our picks, and even made a trade or two with the future in mind instead of hanging on to all our "own rentals" going back as far as not keeping JVR. We'd have all or most of our draft picks in the coming years, and a bunch of prospects either playing for us on ELC's next year, or on the verge of being ready. Instead, our team is top heavy with very little young talent on ELC's and not many futures left to trade.

And it's very hard to see how trading Nylander who's value is limited as he's basically a rental player now will make us better. He's one of our 3 best players, losing him will make us weaker instead of stronger.

Maybe we can make one more push. Keep Nylander as an own rental and trade away all the draft capital we have at the TDL. At best, we can add the same type of value we added at the last TDL but then the cupboards will be completely empty and of course making all those adds only got us to the 2nd round last year so ...

Bottom line, things are looking pretty damn bleak ATM and if M&M want top dollar to sign (which is what it feels like), we are well and truly f***ed.

One last thought - think about how old JT was when he signed here, and compare that to how old our big 3 will be when they sign their next deals. Sign all these guys for 8 years and try to win in the next couple of years and 5 years from now we'll probably look like Chicago did the last couple of years except without the playoff success.

I'll say it again, we are well and truly f***ed.

That's fair. So, who are the cup contenders in the east then?

Drawing the line between contenders and non-contenders is a tough game to play.

How many people would have said that Florida is a contender last summer?

How many people would have said that Florida is a contender before the cup finals began?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

It's almost like it takes two sides to sign a deal. Our RFAs had brains too and had zero reason to sign a year early, especially with a coach that had misused them, abused them, and neutered their earning potential as much as possible.

Wow...good point. Imagine if they had Keefe as their coach from the beginning. We would be looking at their current expensive deals they are on and lament at how reasonable they would have been compared to what they signed for after getting the Sheldon Boost....

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wow...good point. Imagine if they had Keefe as their coach from the beginning. We would be looking at their current expensive deals they are on and lament at how reasonable they would have been compared to what they signed for after getting the Sheldon Boost....

If we had Keefe since the beginning, they probably sign a year early and they're even cheaper. At worst, they sign similar deals, but we don't have half the fanbase spending years lobbing toxicity at them, because their relative quality and impact would have been more accepted.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

If we had Keefe since the beginning, they probably sign a year early and they're even cheaper. At worst, they sign similar deals, but we don't have half the fanbase spending years lobbing toxicity at them, because their relative quality and impact would have been more accepted.

Sorry...but the signing a year early doesn't make much sense to me. Why would they do that if Keefe is letting them be the offensive dynamo's that you think they would have been? Why would they sign a contract cheaper or the same as what they received if they most likely would have had better stats because of Keefe and his "Ride the stars till they puke" style of coaching.

Is this a Heads you win tails I lose situation you are proposing?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sorry...but the signing a year early doesn't make much sense to me. Why would they do that if Keefe is letting them be the offensive dynamo's that you think they would have been? Why would they sign a contract cheaper or the same as what they received if they most likely would have had better stats because of Keefe and his "Ride the stars till they puke" style of coaching.

Keefe doesn't have a "ride the stars until they puke" style of coaching. He has a normal, non-Babcock, treat your stars appropriately style of coaching. When you have a GM that refuses to give simple things like ELC bonuses and makes silly restricting rules about facial hair, and you have a coach that mentally abuses you and intentionally avoids putting you in positions to succeed, you're going to be less likely to feel like you're been given a chance to properly represent the quality and impact your bring and sign early.

 

[notDatsyuk]

That's fair. So, who are the cup contenders in the east then?

I don't have an opinion on that right now - maybe by December or January.

 

[conFABulator]

I don't have an opinion on that right now - maybe by December or January.

Fair. Probably the only reasonable answer. I was asking this poster why he was so sure the Leafs are not a contender.

 

[andora]

Fair. Probably the only reasonable answer. I was asking this poster why he was so sure the Leafs are not a contender.

Personally i like thinking of a group of teams below contender.. not by mich but teams are are expected to be ready to push

I mean contenders i have off the top of my head vegas colorado tampa

Then that next group.. 'prime' .. oilers leafs rangers hurricanes

Something like that.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

It's almost like it takes two sides to sign a deal. Our RFAs had brains too and had zero reason to sign a year early, especially with a coach that had misused them, abused them, and neutered their earning potential as much as possible.