Salary Cap: Cap Situation Entering Free Agency

[egd27]

It's a give and take, no deal is ever 1 sides requests and none of the other side.

Have you ever negotiated anything ?

Sure.....and I've walked away more times than I can count. But the times I've gotten beaten (and there have been a few) were the times I wasn't confident enough to stand my ground or walk away.

Nylander / Matthews / Marner - Which of their contracts, in your opinion, are more team friendly and which are more player friendly?

 

[Azail]

Basically zero chance a guy sits out a year and sticks around for the next season, let alone takes less. Makes zero sense.

Trade request would be in and everyone would complain Dubas didn't get anything for Marner when traded, because no team is going to line up a truckload of assets for a guy when the Leafs have no leverage.

Not saying the deal is good or bad, just discussing the "let a guy sit for a year" narritive

Agreed, I couldn't see the sitting and waiting a year thing happening. That was just the only options. Trade, let him sit then trade, or sign him for what he got.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Meh to me the best GM's are willing to reflect, adapt, make changes and listen. Not go all in on a plan that has failed for years because they think they have a winning formula - but no killer instinct, no standing up for eachother, not starting on time, lack of grit, easy to play against (says their own players) - sounds like something that will easily turn around to me. Not

It's amazing how so many are ok with losing and no consequences. I guess that's why MLSE is so rich

So the best GMs (I assume cup winning GMs) change up their entire team to progress ?

I think there are much more GMs that have stayed the course and broke through, then "retooled" and won.

Works for some, doesn't for others.

 

[ShaneFalco]

So the best GMs (I assume cup winning GMs) change up their entire team to progress ?

I think there are much more GMs that have stayed the course and broke through, then "retooled" and won.

Works for some, doesn't for others.

Noone is saying blow up the team but maybe, just maybe paying Marner 11 mill isn't going to, and hasn't worked

 

[18leafsfan18]

Sure.....and I've walked away more times than I can count. But the times I've gotten beaten (and there have been a few) were the times I wasn't confident enough to stand my ground or walk away.

Nylander / Matthews / Marner - Which of their contracts, in your opinion, are more team friendly and which are more player friendly?

Marners contract is the worst of those 3 vs comparables. Player side.

Nylander's contract is fairly market value, which is great. Call it a tie I guess.

Matthews contact doesn't have many comparables. Best goal scorer in the league now. Hard to say it's an overpay when there isn't much to compare it to league wide. His % of cap is 14.64 vs ovi (former best) was 18.96. Would you consider that team friendly ? I assume not, but who do you compare it to then ?

Did you ever go back to any of the " walk aways" you had ? You woul be willing to have one of those 3 simply walk away and get scraps for them?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Agreed, I couldn't see the sitting and waiting a year thing happening. That was just the only options. Trade, let him sit then trade, or sign him for what he got.

I don't love them overpaying, but of the 3 options, it's the best one.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Noone is saying blow up the team but maybe, just maybe paying Marner 11 mill isn't going to, and hasn't worked

We will know by the end of this season, where it's pretty clear it's their last chance, Dubas made it sound like that, if there is another fail this year , the changes will be massive (GM, maybe Shanny and I assume some of the big core guys).

I'm not saying paying marner 11 will work either, just simply saying staying massive changes aren't always the answer (sometimes they are).

The way people talk on here with how horrible Marner is, what's his trade value then ?

You can't sit here and say he needs to go and he isn't any good in playoffs, then expect a good return, it's 1 or the other.

 

[Azail]

Again, I'm not suggesting they have no say, however the GM holds more leverage and is under no obligation to capitulate to a player's demands if it is not in team's best interest



Dubas had given JT $11M to set the new salary structure on the Leafs
He made a last minute deal after allowing WN to hold out, made him whole, and front loaded $10+M
Then he allowed Matthews to beat him for a 5 year deal, at the 2nd highest cap hit, with 93% in signing bonuses.
Followed by giving away a first to dump Marleau's $6M and took on Clarkson so he had $11M in cap ready to go.

By the time Marner negotiated it was too late for Dubas and Ferris just waited until training camp was about to start to get what they wanted.

The best analogy I can think of is trying to play poker with your hole cards showing to the rest of the table.

I don't really have an issue with the JT signing, maybe $1mil rich, but we didn't think the cap was going to stagnate. At the time I was thrilled to have a 1-2 punch with Matthews/JT. Considering how past championship teams had won with a good 1-2 punch of the middle I thought this was a great idea. Definitely hasn't worked that way so far though.

Nylander, I thought was slightly favoured for him, maybe $500k high. Would have been nice if Lou signed him in the last year of his deal, but I don't think Nylander wanted to sign before the end of that season anyways. I could care less about the front loaded $10mil, and I doubt anyone else does as it is MLSE's money. His contract is good value now.

Matthews the number is OK (not amazing by any means), term was too short, but a longer term doesn't help with cap space this season. He was the only one I was worried about being offer-sheeted, and I was happy they got him done before the end of the season, and I can live with the number given.

Marner, again, $1.5-$2mil too high IMO. So I don't see how anything changes with Marner, minus trading him in the end. He wanted close to Matthews, and Matthews wanted around McDavid money and more than Eichel. Maybe Matthews wouldn't have been offer-sheeted so we could have hardballed, I personally didn't want the Leafs to take that chance at least.

 

[egd27]

Marners contract is the worst of those 3 vs comparables. Player side.

Nylander's contract is fairly market value, which is great. Call it a tie I guess.

Matthews contact doesn't have many comparables. Best goal scorer in the league now. Hard to say it's an overpay when there isn't much to compare it to league wide. His % of cap is 14.64 vs ovi (former best) was 18.96. Would you consider that team friendly ? I assume not, but who do you compare it to then ?

Did you ever go back to any of the " walk aways" you had ? You woul be willing to have one of those 3 simply walk away and get scraps for them?

Nylander's is closest but IMO I always believed he should have received the Ehler's contract with a cap inflation. I think that would have been around $6.4M - adavantage player

Marner- not worth discussing. Player friendly

Matthews - I think it was always assumed that he'd be between Eichel & McDavid and higher than JT. So the cap hit is probably fair. But......all 3 of those guys signed for max term. When you factor term, the NMC in the last year and that 93% of the contract is signing bonus, IMO it's clearly player friendly.

They couldn't "walk away", that's the whole point of the RFA leverage. No play, no pay.

As far as did I ever go back.....yup. Also had the other side "fold" and come to me, but most often that was end of it and I moved on to something else.

 

[sxvnert]

The cap situation is waiting around for scraps like every other year and praying an above average player is willing to sign for next to nothing.

He knows full well Shanahan will never fire him so Kyle will never admit to his mistakes and the changed landscape by moving Marner.

Not making the playoffs this season is the only long term hope fans have. This will ensure a complete house cleaning from top to bottom.

 

[keonsbitterness]

We will know by the end of this season, where it's pretty clear it's their last chance, Dubas made it sound like that, if there is another fail this year , the changes will be massive (GM, maybe Shanny and I assume some of the big core guys).

That's possible if fan pressure reaches some kind of critical mass, but I think the next big internal pressure point is July 2023 when Matthews and Nylander can begin negotiations.

So I guess I'm predicting everyone is getting two more years. Enjoy!

 

[18leafsfan18]

Nylander's is closest but IMO I always believed he should have received the Ehler's contract with a cap inflation. I think that would have been around $6.4M - adavantage player

Marner- not worth discussing. Player friendly

Matthews - I think it was always assumed that he'd be between Eichel & McDavid and higher than JT. So the cap hit is probably fair. But......all 3 of those guys signed for max term. When you factor term, the NMC in the last year and that 93% of the contract is signing bonus, IMO it's clearly player friendly.

They couldn't "walk away", that's the whole point of the RFA leverage. No play, no pay.

As far as did I ever go back.....yup. Also had the other side "fold" and come to me, but most often that was end of it and I moved on to something else.

So you agree, the walking away was not an option at all. Walking away in this context your are referring to Dubas walking away and forcing the player to come back ?

Your arguing over 400k Nylanders contract is player friendly (based on a single comparable), your being bias, contract is not an overpay or "players win" at worst a tie.

The whole "not signed for full term" thing is too hard to argue, Noone knows what extra years of term are worth when comparing contacts really it's all here say.

Obviously longer contract is better when comparing same aav, but how much better ?

 

[18leafsfan18]

That's possible if fan pressure reaches some kind of critical mass, but I think the next big internal pressure point is July 2023 when Matthews and Nylander can begin negotiations.

So I guess I'm predicting everyone is getting two more years. Enjoy!

Yeah no way to know.

The only reason I say this year is because of Dubas' recent interview, how he worded it make it seem like he knows its his last year if they choke again.

 

[ryno23]

We can complain about the cap all we want and how Dubas has managed. OK so maybe each of Marner, Matthews, and Tavares each take a mil less and that would have saved $3 million in cap space going forward. So that is 1 bottom 6 player.

As you see teams like Col having to pay their starts either this season or next (mckinnon) you will start to see more and more teams come closer to the cap ceiling and the league player movement will basically halt except for the 700k-1 million guys who will all interchange the bottom of teams rosters.

I would rather the Leafs have Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander eating up most of the cap vs Sj cap problem, Dallas cap problem or even Edmonton Cap problem where they got 2 guys making 20 million and some scrubs making 5 like neal and mediocre guys like RNH making 5 and soon to be Hyman making 5.

Yeah it sucks Dubas couldn't have squeezed 1 mil each from Marner, Matthews and Tavares but I don't think anyone could have predicted a plague to ruin the world and in turn pro sports.

I will give him a Mulligan cause if the cap was going to rise as it was plus the fact the TV money was bigger than anticipated the cap would probably be nearing 100 million a year

 

[hamzarocks]

So you agree, the walking away was not an option at all. Walking away in this context your are referring to Dubas walking away and forcing the player to come back ?

Your arguing over 400k Nylanders contract is player friendly (based on a single comparable), your being bias, contract is not an overpay or "players win" at worst a tie.

The whole "not signed for full term" thing is too hard to argue, Noone knows what extra years of term are worth when comparing contacts really it's all here say.

Obviously longer contract is better when comparing same aav, but how much better ?

Nylander should have been dealt for a top pairing RHD. He was rumored to be involved in deals for Pietrangelo/Parayko and Pesce. Signing him after letting him sit out for 1/3 of the year when we already had 3 elite forwards and had glaring holes at defense was a bad decision by dubas.

Dubas should have moved 1 of Marner or Nylander after signing JT. He paid JT 11M, AM 11.634. He should have given MM a 8-8.5M offer and if he rejected traded him for a elite 1D and kept Nylander as the winger we built around. If Marner accepted, and Nylander didn't take 6-6.5M he should have been dealt for a quality 2D.

Keeping both wingers, when we had Kap, AJ, Hyman, Brown, + Kadri at the time was a bad decision as we were deep offensively and needed defensive help. Moving one of those guys would have fixed out cap allocation and really solidified our team structure moving forward with us having Rielly + Top D from Nylander/Marner deal along with JT, AM, and one of MM/WN as the core 5.

Dubas got suckered into thinking/believing being top-heavy offensively could win in the NHL and stuck with signing both wingers which led to key role players departures, making our offense go from deep to shallow outside the big players.

 

[Captain Crunch]

So the best GMs (I assume cup winning GMs) change up their entire team to progress ?

I think there are much more GMs that have stayed the course and broke through, then "retooled" and won.

Works for some, doesn't for others.

Okay, so how long do you stay the course, then?
To me, Dubas is standing pat (he even said so). I know this would never happen, but I would love to see how many GMs truly believe you have a legitimate chance to win the Cup when you have 4 forwards taking up half of the team’s cap. We know Dubas believes this, and he’s willing to go down with the ship. But does he really believe this, or is he too stubborn to admit he might be wrong?

 

[keonsbitterness]

Yeah no way to know.

The only reason I say this year is because of Dubas' recent interview, how he worded it make it seem like he knows its his last year if they choke again.

I think that was just Dubas acknowledging fan anger, or sucking up some would say. He knows how to play the P.R. game.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Marners contract is the worst of those 3 vs comparables. Player side.

Nylander's contract is fairly market value, which is great. Call it a tie I guess.

Matthews contact doesn't have many comparables. Best goal scorer in the league now. Hard to say it's an overpay when there isn't much to compare it to league wide. His % of cap is 14.64 vs ovi (former best) was 18.96. Would you consider that team friendly ? I assume not, but who do you compare it to then ?

Did you ever go back to any of the " walk aways" you had ? You woul be willing to have one of those 3 simply walk away and get scraps for them?

Sometimes you have to take 1 step back in order to move 2 steps forward. I guess if you have to draw a line in the sand, is it better to basically give in to what the player is asking (knowing it’s setting a precedent for when other RFAs and UFAs become available), or is it better to stick to your guns, even if it means you aren’t winning the trade?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Nylander should have been dealt for a top pairing RHD. He was rumored to be involved in deals for Pietrangelo/Parayko and Pesce. Signing him after letting him sit out for 1/3 of the year when we already had 3 elite forwards and had glaring holes at defense was a bad decision by dubas.

Dubas should have moved 1 of Marner or Nylander after signing JT. He paid JT 11M, AM 11.634. He should have given MM a 8-8.5M offer and if he rejected traded him for a elite 1D and kept Nylander as the winger we built around. If Marner accepted, and Nylander didn't take 6-6.5M he should have been dealt for a quality 2D.

Keeping both wingers, when we had Kap, AJ, Hyman, Brown, + Kadri at the time was a bad decision as we were deep offensively and needed defensive help. Moving one of those guys would have fixed out cap allocation and really solidified our team structure moving forward with us having Rielly + Top D from Nylander/Marner deal along with JT, AM, and one of MM/WN as the core 5.

Dubas got suckered into thinking/believing being top-heavy offensively could win in the NHL and stuck with signing both wingers which led to key role players departures, making our offense go from deep to shallow outside the big players.

Is this EA NHL ?

First of all you discount all of these players and say he should have just signed them cheaper. How do you know that wasn't the strategy ?

Then, well if they don't want to sign fot bargain basement price trade em. If those prices they "demanded" were so bad, why would any team be willing to give up quality assets back ?

Such BS these video game GMs on this board making up shit that isn't feasible and if it is how do we know for sure they didn't try that ?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Okay, so how long do you stay the course, then?
To me, Dubas is standing pat (he even said so). I know this would never happen, but I would love to see how many GMs truly believe you have a legitimate chance to win the Cup when you have 4 forwards taking up half of the team’s cap. We know Dubas believes this, and he’s willing to go down with the ship. But does he really believe this, or is he too stubborn to admit he might be wrong?

Pretty sure he just said in an interview he believes it and he's gonna take the KO punch on the chin if they fail again and he was wrong.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I think that was just Dubas acknowledging fan anger, or sucking up some would say. He knows how to play the P.R. game.

Yeah he does, but I think a lot of playing a good PR game is not being full of shit.

People generally see through that.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Sometimes you have to take 1 step back in order to move 2 steps forward. I guess if you have to draw a line in the sand, is it better to basically give in to what the player is asking (knowing it’s setting a precedent for when other RFAs and UFAs become available), or is it better to stick to your guns, even if it means you aren’t winning the trade?

I personally don't really care who wins a trade/signing etc, as long as the team gets better.

We were just discussing where the sides were between those 3 contracts.

Sometimes it takes a while to break though, hopefully these guys are figuring it out, if not it's blow up time again, which sucks but happens to teams more often then winning cups

 

[Captain Crunch]

Pretty sure he just said in an interview he believes it and he's gonna take the KO punch on the chin if they fail again and he was wrong.

I’m afraid we may be wasting another year. Hopefully the *6th time conquers.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I’m afraid we may be wasting another year. Hopefully the *6th time conquers.

I'm still so confused on what people want him to do ?

Trade one of the big F for who ?

Just opens another hole.

For the first time in likely 10 seasons they are fairly solid on the back end and this is when everyone wants to blow it up ?

 

[Dale Gribble]

this is a cup contending roster folks

Kyle Dubas seems to believe so, but I gotta admit it gives me a good chuckle.