Cap estimates for 25-26 through 27-28

[WeaponOfChoice]

haha...sadly not going to hear about it until the CBA is done and the Canadian TV rights are done.

Wouldn't adding a team in Canada increase those rights?

 

[eojsmada]

Wouldn't adding a team in Canada increase those rights?

It should, but both sides of the deal need cost certainty before you think about expanding. And perhaps there could be something in the deal where there is a provision for another team.

 

[Tawnos]

Wouldn't adding a team in Canada increase those rights?

I don't think it would increase them a ton, because the markets that are left are either small or would cannibalize existing markets. IMO, the TV rights deal in Canada doesn't have much room for growth.

Even though there have been the expressions of interest, I don't think the NHL is seriously considering somewhere like Omaha, either. So this isn't really about Canada. The phase of the NHL expanding to anywhere and everywhere that they can in order to expand the TV footprint ended when they hit 30. Now, they're going to be more targeted and strategic.

 

[StreetHawk]

I don't think it would increase them a ton, because the markets that are left are either small or would cannibalize existing markets. IMO, the TV rights deal in Canada doesn't have much room for growth.

Even though there have been the expressions of interest, I don't think the NHL is seriously considering somewhere like Omaha, either. So this isn't really about Canada. The phase of the NHL expanding to anywhere and everywhere that they can in order to expand the TV footprint ended when they hit 30. Now, they're going to be more targeted and strategic.

NHL now has basically exhausted all non nba us markets. LV and SEA will be getting nba teams soon. Only big markets are left which would justify the NHL’s expansion price tag of $1.5 - $2 billion target.

Those are going to be back door deals. No public expansion process.

 

[Tawnos]

NHL now has basically exhausted all non nba us markets. LV and SEA will be getting nba teams soon. Only big markets are left which would justify the NHL’s expansion price tag of $1.5 - $2 billion target.

Those are going to be back door deals. No public expansion process.

Pretty much. If you’re talking medium markets, they need to either not have an NBA team (San Diego, Kansas City, Austin) or have some factor that might make it work even with an NBA team (Portland and their hockey history).

Then of course there’s the question of arena and ownership. But I just don’t see the NHL having much interest in small markets in either country.

 

[StreetHawk]

Pretty much. If you’re talking medium markets, they need to either not have an NBA team (San Diego, Kansas City, Austin) or have some factor that might make it work even with an NBA team (Portland and their hockey history).

Then of course there’s the question of arena and ownership. But I just don’t see the NHL having much interest in small markets in either country.

Most of those markets listed, not sure how much appeal the NHL has in them. Comparable current NHL markets to those above are what like Ana, Car, TB?

The Arena in KC is like 20 years old now. Portland signed an extension with the Blazers for 5 more years. Are they waiting for Jody Allen to sell the Blazers before they do a massive reno to the arena there?

SD, Kroenke was reportedly invovled in that one. SD needs a new one for concerts and other events, so they do plan on building one. Just a matter of the capacity. No pro NHL/NBA team and they likely go 14K. If they get the pro team, then it's going to be 17K capacity.

Not sure the NHL would opt for Austin over Houston. But, if Ferittia is holding firm on a price point, then Houston isn't an option unless it's a new arena outside the range of where the Toyota Center is (per the agreement they have with the county).

 

[Tawnos]

Most of those markets listed, not sure how much appeal the NHL has in them. Comparable current NHL markets to those above are what like Ana, Car, TB?

The Arena in KC is like 20 years old now. Portland signed an extension with the Blazers for 5 more years. Are they waiting for Jody Allen to sell the Blazers before they do a massive reno to the arena there?

SD, Kroenke was reportedly invovled in that one. SD needs a new one for concerts and other events, so they do plan on building one. Just a matter of the capacity. No pro NHL/NBA team and they likely go 14K. If they get the pro team, then it's going to be 17K capacity.

Not sure the NHL would opt for Austin over Houston. But, if Ferittia is holding firm on a price point, then Houston isn't an option unless it's a new arena outside the range of where the Toyota Center is (per the agreement they have with the county).

Basically, I only really think the NHL ends up in one of those cities mainly if they get into all 3 big ones. They’ll seek divisional/conference balance which you really don’t get with 35 teams.

After that, it’s a matter of the specifics involved, which are hard to predict since it’s far enough down the line where different pieces may emerge.

 

[PlayersLtd]

Poorly written article, Author acknowledges teams pay a different tax on the 41 road games, then goes on to show tax calculations like it’s 82 games at home lol.

Glad someone pointed that out, so blatantly omitted I was confused.

Seattle (lowest) pays 40.20%
Montreal (highest) pays 53.15%

Yet for every game each plays on the road, a Montreal player's tax hit goes down whereas a Seattle player's goes up. So I did the math for the author...

Based on Seattle's 2024-25 schedule, after 41 home games and 41 away games their average tax rate goes up 3.2% to 43.40%
Based on Montreal's 2024-25 schedule, after 41 home games and 41 away games their average tax rate goes down 3.4% to 49.77%

Using Sidney Crosby's $8.7m contract (as per the author's example) Sid would take home $4.92M in Seattle and $4.37M in Montreal.

And that is the worst case scenario.

Now, when you factor in the exchange rate Sid's take home in Montreal is actually $6,264,613 CDN. Apply that to the cost of living in Montreal vs the cost of living in Seattle and you have a completely different story than the tax advantages suggest. I spend time in each city and a night out in Seattle, or real estate for that matter, is much MUCH higher.

On top of all that there are tax deferral mechanisms in Canada (RCA's) that are designed to benefit high earning athletes, so long as they are wiling to strategize longterm. Link

To think so much is being made of this tax issue, I sure hope athletes aren't looking at it with such tunnel vision.

 

[LadyStanley]

I think fans and owners are more concerned about not being a desirable destination due to taxes than players. (The latter more concerned with maximizing career earnings often, but sometimes chance to win a cup.)

 

[StreetHawk]

I think fans and owners are more concerned about not being a desirable destination due to taxes than players. (The latter more concerned with maximizing career earnings often, but sometimes chance to win a cup.)

Only so many cities with no state income tax that have cap room for free agency and needing your position. Dallas, LV, SEA, TB, FLA. Nash, Car fairly low.

SEA/DAL negative, along with Nash is the extra travel.

Between trade protection, term, money (total), buyout protection, location (family reasons), competitiveness of team, media scrutiny (some perform better without the spotlight), etc. all factor into it. UFAs are typically late 20's so have more family concerns.

 

[dj4aces]

I just read Friedman's 32 thoughts and I'm disappointed there was nothing about expansion

At the earliest, we could hear something in June. Bettman did say he wants to announce the new CBA just before the SCF starts.

In Monday's 32 Thoughts podcast, Friedman did mention (crude paraphrasing is my own) that expansion fees could be used to inject a bit of extra money into small market teams (US and Canadian) as the cap goes up. Daly did say this past summer that the league has a maximum in mind, he just didn't say what that max is, so any use of expansion fees to help boost small markets would be limited. All that talk makes me wonder what the future of the NHL salary cap will look like.