Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign D Tyler Myers to 5-Year, $30m Deal ($6m AAV)

[I am toxic]

Benning signs Sbisa. What do you guys know, Benning says he's a top 4 dman and that's good enough for me!

Benning signs Gudbranson. What do you guys know, Benning says he's a top 4 dman and that's good enough for me!

Benning signs Myers. What do...

And extends him at an even higher cap hit.

And extends him at an even higher cap hit.

And . . .

 

[1440]

He really was a poor target on many levels. From what I've heard and read, the team had targeted both Subban (NJ was willing to take on his full salary, we weren't) and Barrie (I believe we may have traded the 10th if the players the team liked were already gone). Both of these are excellent targets imo.

This indicates to me that Myers was always the Plan C, or oh **** desperate free agent signing b/c they felt they had to do something. But if they struck out on Barrie and Subban that's when you just...stop. No need for panicky moves where you sign a #5 to top 4 money, and add another bloated, albatross contract to the club.

Such a shame we couldn't have landed one of the first two. I'm not sure Podkolzin and the Myers contract (which I view as a negative asset) is better than Barrie and the flexibility and superior play that player and contract provides.

If Subban and Barrie were the excellent targets that you portray them to be, I too would have preferred them as options.

What they actually are is guys who both produce points well, but have lackluster underlying stats. They are hugely overrated because of their point production, and were overvaluated in the trade market.

That said, Myers is overvalued for other reasons (size, point production)

I am disheartened by the notion that the Canucks brass would have been so foolish as to covet Barrie and Subban, but gladdened by the notion that they have enough sense to have not paid such aggregious prices.

I would have been most happy with none of the above at the prices reported, and in the case of Myers, paid. But here we are with a lesser of three evils, having forfeit no prospects or picks. If the Canucks were decided that they needed to add a defenceman, with the prices paid for Subban and Barrie as context, perhaps we should not think of this as a "desperate free agent signing", but rather as a demonstration of, albeit minor, calculated restraint.

 

[Pavel96]

Truth By Numbers: The best, and worst, UFA contracts given out so far - Sportsnet.ca

Tyler Myers isn’t as bad as a lot of folks make him out to be — he can have moments of brilliance where his skillset and 6-foot-8 frame are a tantalizing combination that you can’t blame general managers for falling in love with. But last season in Winnipeg he was, for the most part, a third-pairing defenceman at even strength, and even with easier minutes than normal the Jets weren’t very good when he took the ice.

This has been a consistent thing for Myers ever since his excellent rookie season in 2009-10, and when you crunch all the numbers together he’s a decent No. 4 or 5 defenceman in terms of performance.
That is still a valued asset on a lot of teams, but not for the $6 million price tag, and he’s certainly not the type of player you give this much term to. If there is one easy-to-follow golden rule for managing a salary cap in the NHL, it’s to not give replaceable talents more than league average cap hits, and never give term. That means no matter how much you love your fourth-line centre, you have to remember that’s a position you can afford to change out every year if you have to. There are dozens of good fourth-line players plying their trades in the American Hockey League every year praying for a chance at the NHL.

Myers is above the equivalent of a fourth liner for defencemen, but not by that much, and the Canucks have paid him like a strong No. 2.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

JB keeps bringing in guys and expecting them to contribute more when given more ice time. When will he learn that guy’s kind of are what they are, and it’s extremely rare for a player to play better with more ice time? Actually guys normally get worse, because they’re not able to play those minutes.

There are two kinds of stats. Indicative stats that tell you what happened (+/-, points, shots etc.) and predictive stats that tell you what is likely to happen in the future (expected goals, on ice save% etc.)

I think our management, apart from our amateur scouting, lives entirely in the indicative stats world.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Truth By Numbers: The best, and worst, UFA contracts given out so far - Sportsnet.ca

Tyler Myers isn’t as bad as a lot of folks make him out to be — he can have moments of brilliance where his skillset and 6-foot-8 frame are a tantalizing combination that you can’t blame general managers for falling in love with. But last season in Winnipeg he was, for the most part, a third-pairing defenceman at even strength, and even with easier minutes than normal the Jets weren’t very good when he took the ice.

This has been a consistent thing for Myers ever since his excellent rookie season in 2009-10, and when you crunch all the numbers together he’s a decent No. 4 or 5 defenceman in terms of performance.
That is still a valued asset on a lot of teams, but not for the $6 million price tag, and he’s certainly not the type of player you give this much term to. If there is one easy-to-follow golden rule for managing a salary cap in the NHL, it’s to not give replaceable talents more than league average cap hits, and never give term. That means no matter how much you love your fourth-line centre, you have to remember that’s a position you can afford to change out every year if you have to. There are dozens of good fourth-line players plying their trades in the American Hockey League every year praying for a chance at the NHL.

Myers is above the equivalent of a fourth liner for defencemen, but not by that much, and the Canucks have paid him like a strong No. 2.

Ah. Fantastic post. This summarizes almost all the issues I have with what we are currently doing as a team.

 

[lawrence]

Truth By Numbers: The best, and worst, UFA contracts given out so far - Sportsnet.ca

Tyler Myers isn’t as bad as a lot of folks make him out to be — he can have moments of brilliance where his skillset and 6-foot-8 frame are a tantalizing combination that you can’t blame general managers for falling in love with. But last season in Winnipeg he was, for the most part, a third-pairing defenceman at even strength, and even with easier minutes than normal the Jets weren’t very good when he took the ice.

This has been a consistent thing for Myers ever since his excellent rookie season in 2009-10, and when you crunch all the numbers together he’s a decent No. 4 or 5 defenceman in terms of performance.
That is still a valued asset on a lot of teams, but not for the $6 million price tag, and he’s certainly not the type of player you give this much term to. If there is one easy-to-follow golden rule for managing a salary cap in the NHL, it’s to not give replaceable talents more than league average cap hits, and never give term. That means no matter how much you love your fourth-line centre, you have to remember that’s a position you can afford to change out every year if you have to. There are dozens of good fourth-line players plying their trades in the American Hockey League every year praying for a chance at the NHL.

Myers is above the equivalent of a fourth liner for defencemen, but not by that much, and the Canucks have paid him like a strong No. 2.

hilarious write up by the author.

 

[I am toxic]

Don't forget the most important stat of all.

Draft position.

Our GM will not rest until he has overpaid everyone else's washed up D that was selected in the top 10 OA.

He just jumped the gun a little on Juolevi.

 

[Jyrki21]

If you are subscribed to the Athletic, this is completely bang-on:

 

[I am toxic]

The sun can't explode soon enough.

 

[iceburg]

Truth By Numbers: The best, and worst, UFA contracts given out so far - Sportsnet.ca

Tyler Myers isn’t as bad as a lot of folks make him out to be — he can have moments of brilliance where his skillset and 6-foot-8 frame are a tantalizing combination that you can’t blame general managers for falling in love with. But last season in Winnipeg he was, for the most part, a third-pairing defenceman at even strength, and even with easier minutes than normal the Jets weren’t very good when he took the ice.

This has been a consistent thing for Myers ever since his excellent rookie season in 2009-10, and when you crunch all the numbers together he’s a decent No. 4 or 5 defenceman in terms of performance.
That is still a valued asset on a lot of teams, but not for the $6 million price tag, and he’s certainly not the type of player you give this much term to. If there is one easy-to-follow golden rule for managing a salary cap in the NHL, it’s to not give replaceable talents more than league average cap hits, and never give term. That means no matter how much you love your fourth-line centre, you have to remember that’s a position you can afford to change out every year if you have to. There are dozens of good fourth-line players plying their trades in the American Hockey League every year praying for a chance at the NHL.

Myers is above the equivalent of a fourth liner for defencemen, but not by that much, and the Canucks have paid him like a strong No. 2.

The numbers show that the term and cap hit for Myers are reasonable insomuch as UFAs all get overpaid. The mistake was allowing the situation to evolve such that the only way to get better to have a shot at the playoffs (as per their objective not one I necessarily endorse) was to sign a UFA defenseman.

 

[Jyrki21]

Interesting look at UFAs by Dom Luszczyszyn in the Athletic (paywall, of course).

On UFAs in general, not surprisingly, they tend to be bad value:

One only needs to skim through past free agency classes to see that. NBC’s Adam Gretz did just that on Friday with a candid stroll down memory lane of past years, finding that a not nice 69 percent of deals with five-year term or longer ended in a trade or buyout. The evidence is damning and speaks for itself, showing the danger of handing out term to a declining asset, something I touched on before free agency began.

That history will likely repeat itself again isn’t out of the question. If you’ve been following along with my free agency projected player value tracker, you may have noticed that a majority of the deals signed in free agency, especially the big ones, come in above market value – some of them by a lot. That means a team likely overpaid for a player’s services, but what it doesn’t mean is that it can’t still work out. There’s always a chance.

And on Myers (emphasis mine):

Let’s look at the Tyler Myers contract as an example. The Vancouver Canucks controversially gave Myers a deal worth $30 million over five seasons. Based on that salary and the cost of a win, the Canucks are expecting Myers to provide nearly six wins of value over the duration of his contract which is in the territory of a No. 2 defenseman. So too is his cap hit percentage which is the 39th largest for a defenseman. By GSVA – and after factoring for more ice-time and perhaps even a larger opportunity on the power play – Myers is expected to only provide two wins of value over the next five years – just over one-third of what’s expected of him. It’s an overpayment of over $14 million, nearly half of his total contract worth. At five years (it really shouldn’t have been five years), $3.1 million per would’ve been much more palatable.

There is a chance this does work out though. A small one, but a chance nevertheless. In Year 1, Myers is projected to earn 0.64 wins, but needs 1.29 to be worth his pay check, with one standard deviation being 0.59 wins. In every subsequent year the difference between his value and what’s expected of him increases due to ageing, but so too does the variance of his projection. In all, Myers is consistently projected to be one standard deviation below what he’s expected to provide his new team.

The chances he brings Vancouver positive expected value over the life of his deal: 16.8 percent. Not pretty, but not unexpected. That’s with the salary cap rising by about 3.5 percent annually – anything less makes the deal even harder to live up to.

 

[iceburg]

I keep on reading the thread title thinking it is Tyler Motte, then see $30M, then momentarily freak out, then realize it's Tyler Myers, then I'm depressed.
Happened two or three times so far...


Edit (August 13): hahahaha...I did it again. Thread gets bumped today, I read the title and think it's Tyler Motte! I'm wondering whether my senior years are coming early!

 

[Blue and Green]

Interesting look at UFAs by Dom Luszczyszyn in the Athletic (paywall, of course).

On UFAs in general, not surprisingly, they tend to be bad value:



And on Myers (emphasis mine):

Those "cost of a win" comparisons based solely on cap hit are specious. If another player was projected to have the same expected value as Tyler Myers over the next five seasons, but he was 23 years old, of course his cap hit would likely be lower but to obtain him would require a team to trade a significant asset. And the player's original team had to use an asset-- a draft pick-- to acquire him in the first place. That's why UFA players get paid more, because the acquisition cost is only $/cap space.

 

[Get North]

UFAs have been getting overpaid since the salary cap came into effect. Sometimes they are worth overpaying for because they can be valuable in the playoffs as depth like Tyler Bozak.

5 years doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, I don’t think we’re at that point yet. We got a little bit help coming from Podkolzin, but we need cap space in 2 summers.

 

[1440]

Expected Goals Model with Pre-Shot Movement, Part 2: Historic Team and Player Results

Feel free to correct me here if I misinterpreted anything. I am not all that familiar with these types of models:

When comparing a traditional xgoals model to a model that attempts to better account for pre-shot movement, Tyler Myers saw the largest positive change in XGF% of any player with a significant quantity of games tracked over the period in question (about half of the games from the 2016-2018 seasons).

To give the simplified interpretation, it means that while Myers was on the ice, the Jets created pre-shot puck movement for and limited pre-shot movement against that would have increased the chances of a shot from a given position resulting in a goal. The effect of pre-shot movement can be thought of largely as the defensive players (and most importantly the goalie) being pulled out of position by this movement.

The author (Alex Novet) suggests that this may indicate that he (or more specifically, players for whom the XGF% change is a large positive value) have been undervalued by "the market".

This is just one very specific statistic where Myers is cast in a positive light, but in keeping with that positivity, his XGF% value changes from good (0.51) with the old model, to excellent (0.544) with the new model when looking at it relative to the rest of the league. I also did a quick scan for other Jets players (specifically Myers' common d partners), and none of them showed as dramatic a change, which further suggests that the positive XGF% change is not just related to the Jets' playing style.

Also, Myers' change was about equal in XG for and against, which suggests that this is both an offensive and defensive aptitude.

Does this data mean that Myers has a specific talent for creating cross-ice passes for and limiting those against? Perhaps someone who has watched him play more than myself would be able to say.

 

[DL44]

Does this data mean that Myers has a specific talent for creating cross-ice passes for and limiting those against? Perhaps someone who has watched him play more than myself would be able to say.

You would think his huge reach would be a significant asset with disruption of passes in his zone (like we saw with Tryamkin), as well as creating more angles and passing lanes for himself in the ozone.

If the data paper supports that then.. good.

 

[timw33]

Damn, I had almost forgotten that we had signed Tyler Myers for $6MM. Going to be a long year.

 

[tantalum]

You would think his huge reach would be a significant asset with disruption of passes in his zone (like we saw with Tryamkin), as well as creating more angles and passing lanes for himself in the ozone.

If the data paper supports that then.. good.

I think I recall reading that the broken down data suggests the opposite. That he's terrible of breaking up plays in the slot.

There were also a piece in the Athletic that in 2017 things pointed strongly to the return of Perrault to the lineup being the biggest influence on the possession/shots numbers. With Perrault out, Myers was sub 40% and ~60% with him in the lineup. So are his numbers being propped up by a deep forward crew on the Jets? The numbers, if I'm remembering correctly, suggest a guy who is terrible at giving up the blueline against the rush and has trouble with high danger chances against. These are two things that a hard working conscientious center and forward crew will impact. Hell, it's exactly what Sutter has historically done (until the last season or so)...be so conscientious on the defensive side of the puck that you see a reflection in the goaltenders SV%.

Now I may just be talking out of my ass but most of what I've read suggests you have a player that needs to be sheltered in some way to be successful. That isn't a guy you sign to this type of deal.

 

[Bankerguy]

I will reserve judgement for now. I am not putting too much weight in the metric's... i'm curious how his game will translate over to the Canucks. I think he'll be paired with Edler which will leave Tanev with Hughes.
I think Myers knows that he's struggled over the last few seasons. This is a fresh start for him, in a new system. Fingers crossed he plays like a legit top 4 dman.

Here is what i'm hoping we see:
35 points +
Not a defensive liability and a plus rating player
Brings a physical game ...throws 100 hits and gets in a few fights.
Can log 20 - 21 minutes a night without obvious fatigue

if he does that, then i'll be content

 

[tantalum]

He's fought 7 times in his career. 4 times since the start of the 2014-15 season. He averages about 1 hit a game.

He will be a defensive liability when facing the rush. The question is if he will be one elsewhere.

I think fatigue level is an unbelievably pretty low bar. Not 21 good minutes a night but 21 minutes where he isn't sucking wind like Phil Kessel in the pre-season.

Now the bizarre fatigue metric aside, if he as able to do those things he will have had a successful season. Problem is no one has really seen that Tyler Myers since his rookie year.

 

[MS]

I will reserve judgement for now. I am not putting too much weight in the metric's... i'm curious how his game will translate over to the Canucks. I think he'll be paired with Edler which will leave Tanev with Hughes.
I think Myers knows that he's struggled over the last few seasons. This is a fresh start for him, in a new system. Fingers crossed he plays like a legit top 4 dman.

Here is what i'm hoping we see:
35 points +
Not a defensive liability and a plus rating player
Brings a physical game ...throws 100 hits and gets in a few fights.
Can log 20 - 21 minutes a night without obvious fatigue

if he does that, then i'll be content

If you're expecting a physical game, prepare to be disappointed. Guy is a big p***ycat.

35+ points will also be completely impossible unless Edler/Hughes both get injured. He's the 3rd PP option on paper right now and with the PP minutes he's likely going to get, anything more than 25 points will be incredibly unlikely.

 

[DL44]

If you're expecting a physical game, prepare to be disappointed. Guy is a big p***ycat.

35+ points will also be completely impossible unless Edler/Hughes both get injured. He's the 3rd PP option on paper right now and with the PP minutes he's likely going to get, anything more than 25 points will be incredibly unlikely.

Jordie Benn and Myers both had 22 pts at ES last season... 25 is doable without Byfuglien and Trouba at ES playing big mins ahead of him. He'll get more mins and opportunity here at ES... so that's an important piece pf the puzzle.
'Incredibly unlikely' is a little hyperbolic.

 

[Bankerguy]

Jordie Benn and Myers both had 22 pts at ES last season... 25 is doable without Byfuglien and Trouba at ES playing big mins ahead of him. He'll get more mins and opportunity here at ES... so that's an important piece pf the puzzle.
'Incredibly unlikely' is a little hyperbolic.

I agree.
Myers will be relied upon more here. sink or swim...if he happens to swim, his stat line will improve.

 

[MS]

Jordie Benn and Myers both had 22 pts at ES last season... 25 is doable without Byfuglien and Trouba at ES playing big mins ahead of him. He'll get more mins and opportunity here at ES... so that's an important piece pf the puzzle.
'Incredibly unlikely' is a little hyperbolic.

Winnipeg is also a much better offensive team. And he scored 18 two seasons ago so has averaged 20 ES points/82 GP in his last two years. And he's a year older. Maybe remove the 'incredibly' but very few non-elite players top 25 ES points in a season.

If you think Myers is going to get 35+ points with the PP usage he's likely to get here, you're in dreamland.

 

[bossram]

I am disheartened by the notion that the Canucks brass would have been so foolish as to covet Barrie and Subban, but gladdened by the notion that they have enough sense to have not paid such aggregious prices.

I would have been most happy with none of the above at the prices reported, and in the case of Myers, paid. But here we are with a lesser of three evils, having forfeit no prospects or picks. If the Canucks were decided that they needed to add a defenceman, with the prices paid for Subban and Barrie as context, perhaps we should not think of this as a "desperate free agent signing", but rather as a demonstration of, albeit minor, calculated restraint.

I get what you're saying but...signing perhaps the single worst contract of the free-agent period is far, far too egregious of an error to denote as "calculated restraint".

Based on the body of evidence, Benning does not operate like this. He thinks in extremely simple terms: He likes player, he thinks player is good, he pays whatever price is needed to acquire player.

In the case of Barrie, I do think that Benning coveted him. I just think it's 100% reasonable that the Toronto (Kadri) deal was superior to whatever we could offer. With Subban, Nashville wanted to offload the entire cap hit and with Benning's capped-out roster, there was simply 0% chance we could even fit him in.

If we wanted to go with "calculated restraint", we could have signed a guy like Tim Heed to a cheap deal for puck-moving, RHD insurance. Locking term and money into a #5 defenseman isn't showing much restraint.