Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Will they stay or will they go, now?

[Mr. Canucklehead]

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Vector's NHL Transaction Tracker.

Some Important Off-Season Dates

Buyout Period: 48 hours after the SCF; players without NMCs must be placed on unconditional waivers 24 hours prior (another buyout period opens if a team has a player file for arbitration)
Team-Elected Arbitration: 48 hours after the SCF
Draft Day 01: June 28th
Draft Day 02: June 29th
Qualifying Offer Date: July 1st
Free Agency Opens: July 1st
Player-Elected Arbitration: July 5th
Young Stars Classic Tournament: Sep. 13th-16th

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[Horvat1C]

It's a reasonable argument but Lindholm is probably a 30-35th best C in the NHL coming off a poor contract year season which is a red flag while Guentzel is a top 8 -15 LW and top 25 best winger in the league.

Past data has shown that as players age past 32 they typically drop a tier and especially so if they are not PP1. Cs also have the 200ft task which can be especially difficult if the wheels fall off to keep providing scoring and play good defence

The argument would be is Guentzel at 33 riding shot gun with Pettersson and more likely on PP1 in the bumper providing more value than Lindholm as a 2/3C and the less likelihood he's still on PP1 at that stage?

Of course if Lindholm ages like Bergeron and Guentzel like Eriksson all is moot but the odds usually pay out for front line players vs 2nd tier guys

There's no exact formula for building a team, but I hold two-way centers in very high regard. Tocchet prioritized running 3 strong centers over loading up the top-6. In a vacuum I'll take the 35th best C over the 15th best LW every time.

I think the question you asked is the correct line of thinking but only looks at scoring when Lindholm also brings strong PK and defensive ability to the table, which Guentzel does not. I also think in terms of fit that Lindholm is a better stylistic/skillset fit with our established core on PP1 given he's right handed and can play the middle/net front, keeping Miller and Pettersson in their spots. For that reason I don't see why Lindholm would be less likely to be on PP1 than Guentzel and would be a better fit in my opinion.

In my head Guentzel (~9M) is the more expensive option, has an injury history, lacks defensive/PK ability, doesn't fit as well on PP1 and would be playing in the West for the first time (which I think should be considered as the amount of travel could affect his performance and the playstyle is different across conferences, look at Huberdeau as an expensive LW who hasn't made the adjustment, other examples include Meier and Jeannot).

If Lindholm doesn't want to stay here either due to pay or utilization concerns then I don't think the Canucks should sign a big name forward unless Reinhart takes a healthy discount to come home.

 

[RandV]

Laine is the very definition of swinging for the fences.

If he finds the right fit he could easily score 40plus goals but if he doesn't and continues to be injured and a defensively irresponsible player trading assets plus taking the full cap hit could blow up a teams chances at contending. And it's a huge gamble with Tocchet as we've seen where these things go with Kuzmenko without full buy in

I dont see the value in it given who we already have on the payroll and the risk but if Columbus did take Mikhayev it certainly mitigates it somewhat and could be a stroke of genius considering his age if he got his conditioning and health in order.

Yeah this is one where as fans playing armchair fantasy GM the idea is enticing but we don't have enough information to make an informed opinion on what sort of risk this might be. Laine is not the type of player you want to take a blind gamble on, but Allvin should have access to talk to his agent and better determine if it could work out or not.

 

[Tact]

Can we save cap space to trade for Crosby at the deadline?

 

[Jerry the great]

Point to literally one example of someone comparing him to Tanev at the time.


Well, apparently one person did.

I stand by what I said. Literally nobody lamented his loss.

I give players a lot of benefit of the doubt that it's a hard league and players are often a lot better than they first show.

I admit I was wrong on Chatfield, but I wrote him off as being hopelessly behind the play and unable to read the game at an NHL level.

Hindsight shows I was wrong, but with the same input I would make the same read now. He looked terrible for us. It's a testament to him (and possibly a good fit with Carolina's system shoutout to @bossram ) that he has made himself into a valued D. But he was completely irrelevant when he was with us.

he had flashes when he was with the organization, but our player development was not good under previous management and he was probably not put in the best position to succeed. That covid bubble era was weird and probably detrimental to some developing players (Diepietro got kind of screwed as well). He should have been in the AHL that 20-21 season but instead he was in our shit show being coached by Travis Green.

I understand the "system" argument, but Chatfield has elite wheels. Maybe not the change of direction that Hughes has, but his acceleration is better than anyone currently on the Canucks or in the system (Wilander may get there). I just don't share the pessimism that he's not going to be able to get the puck out of the zone, or deal with the forecheck. This is not the same player we saw in 2020/1. He's a lot bigger and stronger and has played 200 pro games since then. His puck skills have improved a lot and there is absolutely no reason why that won't continue.

 

[overboard]

I see no way in which Elias Lindholm fits into the plans next season unless Tocchet plays EP on his wing. Or he moves EP with Miller and pairs Lindholm with Boeser.

We simply can't afford his price tag and get the winger upgrade we need in the top 6 without getting it from within, and this would be the only way.

It's also the only way EL would agree to stay - assure him he won't be a 3C stuck behind Miller and EP.

The only other way he stays if they trade Petey and he steps in as 1C / 2C.

I don't see any of this happening, btw, and thus Lindholm will hit UFA. Just like all the rumours are saying.

 

[VanillaCoke]

This has the potential to be an absolute bombshell amazing offseason.

Heck yes sign me up for Guentzel (+ Laine + Necas!)

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

he had flashes when he was with the organization, but our player development was not good under previous management and he was probably not put in the best position to succeed. That covid bubble era was weird and probably detrimental to some developing players (Diepietro got kind of screwed as well). He should have been in the AHL that 20-21 season but instead he was in our shit show being coached by Travis Green.

I understand the "system" argument, but Chatfield has elite wheels. Maybe not the change of direction that Hughes has, but his acceleration is better than anyone currently on the Canucks or in the system (Wilander may get there). I just don't share the pessimism that he's not going to be able to get the puck out of the zone, or deal with the forecheck. This is not the same player we saw in 2020/1. He's a lot bigger and stronger and has played 200 pro games since then. His puck skills have improved a lot and there is absolutely no reason why that won't continue.

I haven't paid close enough attention to him in Carolina to have an informed opinion on how he might do here, so I defer on that part of the conversation.

I was just pushing back on this idea like letting him go was a sign of incompetence. There were many signs of incompetence that off season, but letting him go wasn't even a blip.

It's like when Leafs fans blame their old GM for letting go of Carter Verhaeghe. Nobody was lamenting it at the time because nobody knew what he would become.

Would it be nice to have kept Chatfield and have had him develop here? Sure, in retrospect, and he may be a good target moving forward (though I suspect he may be overpaid), but who he was in 2021 isn't who he is now.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

Hearing that Laine wants out of Columbus and that his agent has been given permission to talk to teams made me think of this possibility...

Something around Mikheyev (4.75) for Laine (8.7) equals +3.95 mil. Add Marchessault (another similarly priced 3C perhaps?) estimated at 6.25 now equals 10.2 million...right around what Guentzel might sign for.

If Laine wants a change of scenery and the Canucks are a team he WANTS to play for, is getting Laine and Marchessault at around the same salary as Guentzel a better option?

 

[MS]

I'm not sure if they are technically able to sign now. They should be but, in the past, there's been strange grey zones for these prospects where they can't actually sign until July 1st. I could be misremembering, though.

We signed Aman on June 7 and Filip Johansson on June 13 so it seems like it can happen immediately.

 

[ziploc]

Hearing that Laine wants out of Columbus and that his agent has been given permission to talk to teams made me think of this possibility...

Something around Mikheyev (4.75) for Laine (8.7) equals +3.95 mil. Add Marchessault (another similarly priced 3C perhaps?) estimated at 6.25 now equals 10.2 million...right around what Guentzel might sign for.

If Laine wants a change of scenery and the Canucks are a team he WANTS to play for, is getting Laine and Marchessault at around the same salary as Guentzel a better option?

Laine hasn't played a full season since 2019, and seems to be dealing with a lot of off-ice stuff. I know Mikheyev has essentially no value, but I find it hard to believe that Laine would have very much either given his price tag and his health issues. I would want to somehow shed more salary (not sure from where at this point), take on less salary, or have the trade sweetened by Columbus to take that contract on.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

Laine hasn't played a full season since 2019, and seems to be dealing with a lot of off-ice stuff. I know Mikheyev has essentially no value, but I find it hard to believe that Laine would have very much either given his price tag and his health issues. I would want to somehow shed more salary (not sure from where at this point), take on less salary, or have the trade sweetened by Columbus to take that contract on.

Yah, You are not wrong there. Laine has been in the NHLPA players assistance program dealing with some mental health issues from what I understand. It kinda makes me think he is where Boeser was a year ago, ready to get back into the NHL in a more dedicated, positive way. He is a gamble, but one that could pay off in a massive way. A 40 goal winger on BOTH top lines AND Marchessault as your 3C? Damn...that would be a sight to see...

 

[Vector]

Yah, You are not wrong there. Laine has been in the NHLPA players assistance program dealing with some mental health issues from what I understand. It kinda makes me think he is where Boeser was a year ago, ready to get back into the NHL in a more dedicated, positive way. He is a gamble, but one that could pay off in a massive way. A 40 goal winger on BOTH top lines AND Marchessault as your 3C? Damn...that would be a sight to see...

Marxhessault doesn’t play centre.

 

[ManVanFan]

Marxhessault doesn’t play centre.

6 face offs wins and 18 face off losses in 82 games proves you are correct Haha.

 

[ziploc]

Yah, You are not wrong there. Laine has been in the NHLPA players assistance program dealing with some mental health issues from what I understand. It kinda makes me think he is where Boeser was a year ago, ready to get back into the NHL in a more dedicated, positive way. He is a gamble, but one that could pay off in a massive way. A 40 goal winger on BOTH top lines AND Marchessault as your 3C? Damn...that would be a sight to see...

Maybe
March EP Laine
Hogs Blueger Garland
Podz Aman PDG?

Basically just a reconstituted 2nd line with hopefully not a big fall off in Hoglander on the third?

Problem there is that we lose three PK forwards: Joshua, Lindholm and Mikheyev. That's playing with fire.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

The Ducks (Verbeek) have said they want to acquire a right handed top-4 defenseman. They're a team with lots of assets that wants to bring in more support for their burgeoning core group. I could see them being willing to bite the bullet and part with something of real value in order to make that happen. Hronek is still young and if he meshed with their core he'd be a fixture there for many years.

1) Hronek to Anaheim -> Zegras to Calgary -> Rasmus Andersen to Vancouver!

2) Then gamble on Laine and acquire him for cheap.

3) profit!

 

[ManVanFan]

Anthony Duclair? Yah or nay.

Like for Yah
Laugh face for nay

 

[dez]

Anthony Duclair? Yah or nah.

He didn't work in Florida, they in fact got better without him, not hard or gritty enough.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

Depending on the trade I'd be interested in taking a gamble on Laine.

 

[MS]

Laine has an $8.7 million cap hit for multiple seasons. The risk there is massive if he doesn't turn it around unless Columbus retains in a huge way.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

Marxhessault doesn’t play centre.

Whatever hockey site I looked at lied to me...I thought the interweb never lied...I am shook bro.

Laine has an $8.7 million cap hit for multiple seasons. The risk there is massive if he doesn't turn it around unless Columbus retains in a huge way.

I think him and Mik are both signed for 2 more years

 

[Vector]

Laine has an $8.7 million cap hit for multiple seasons. The risk there is massive if he doesn't turn it around unless Columbus retains in a huge way.

Retention is absolutely necessary to make him worth any sort of transaction. I’ve been intrigued by him as a buy low candidate for a while but it’s always been with significant retention and Mikheyev going the other way.

Blue Jackets can probably find a more palatable deal somewhere else.

 

[MS]

Whatever hockey site I looked at lied to me...I thought the interweb never lied...I am shook bro.


I think him and Mik are both signed for 2 more years

I'd rather just trade significant futures to move Mikheyev.

 

[MS]

Retention is absolutely necessary to make him worth any sort of transaction. I’ve been intrigued by him as a buy low candidate for a while but it’s always been with significant retention and Mikheyev going the other way.

Blue Jackets can probably find a more palatable deal somewhere else.

I've had a few moments where I've been 'hmmm ... maybe?' on Laine (a player I absolutely loved 6 or 7 years ago and thought would be a megastar) but unless it was 50% retention AND taking Mikheyev it's an absolutely terrifying move to me.

Over the 450-ish games he's been eligible to play over the past 6 years, he's been injured or a coach-killing checked-out defensive liability for about 350 of them. One of the biggest things we had going for us last year was 20 guys buying into the same system every night and tossing an absolute wildcard like this into the mix is ... who knows?

 

[Vector]

I've had a few moments where I've been 'hmmm ... maybe?' on Laine (a player I absolutely loved 6 or 7 years ago and thought would be a megastar) but unless it was 50% retention AND taking Mikheyev it's an absolutely terrifying move to me.

Over the 450-ish games he's been eligible to play over the past 6 years, he's been injured or a coach-killing checked-out defensive liability for about 350 of them. One of the biggest things we had going for us last year was 20 guys buying into the same system every night and tossing an absolute wildcard like this into the mix is ... who knows?

Yeah, it’s 100% predicated on basically just swapping Mikheyev for Laine at even cap hits. I don’t think they will trade futures to move off of Mikheyev and think they’ll end up doing a bad contract swap. Laine at least has a chance to do something compared to the other candidates.

Highly predicated on team’s pro-scouting vouching for him, of course. Something about a strong culture and guy like Boeser going through the same path gives me some confidence he could be revitalized.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Anthony Duclair? Yah or nay.

Like for Yah
Laugh face for nay

I’m a Duclair fan at around his current cap hit. Wanted us to pick him up at the deadline - he went for a song and was a nice fit in Tampa.

But I have a feeling someone will give him $4 to $5M per season, and I think there’s better options at that price.