Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Off-Season Edition | Not satisfied, so now what?

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Last one was over 1,000. Continue here.

Vector, here, I've taken over this original post. Here's the link to my spreadsheet. Contains regularly updated capspace totals, projected rosters, and UFA & RFA lists with AFP's contract projections.

Click to read more...

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Believe me, I am one of the biggest proponents here of trying to find value in the bargain bin for your bottom-six, and not overpaying depth players. I harp on it all the time.

But the Canucks also ostensibly want to be a contending team. They still need actual quality in the bottom-six. If Joshua gets a raise, but is still on a surplus value deal (i.e. not overpaid), I am totally fine with that.

Now, if Allvin and brass think they can find the next Joshua for sub-$1M, then it's their prerogative to do so. But they've already mined so many of these diamonds in the rough, I fear that they may now be overconfident and really just end up paying a low price for a bad product. Replacing Duhaime for Joshua on the 3rd line certainly ain't it. You're not getting 80% of the performance from him. Probably not even 50%. He's a run-of-the-mill 4th liner.

Yep. Beyond this, Joshua may even have a ceiling beyond the 3rd line. Could easily see something like Joshua-Pettersson-Arvidsson being a devastating line next year for us.

Also, retaining Joshua doesn't mean you can't find the next sub-$1M Joshua replacement! Do both! There are a lot of open spots on the roster!

 

[bossram]

Let's put this in another context:

Would you rather their top-six UFA signings be Premium 3rd-Line Winger/Average Top-Six Winger or Average 3rd-Line Winger/Premium Top-Six Winger?

I like Joshua as a player and loved the jam of our third line, but investing in that feels like a pyrrhic victory if your top-six is not generating offense like it could.

I would want the combo of guys that bring the most surplus value, in most cases.

You can't really answer this question without actually knowing the players involved and the projected contracts. Who is the "premium" top-six winger? Some people might think a guy is a premium winger, but I may disagree. The "average" third liner may actually be pretty good.

 

[credulous]

Where does Raty fit into the equation i wonder?

raty hasn't done anything to earn a spot. if he comes into camp and amazes then he can replace aman or whatever but no one should be assuming he's on the roster

(the same goes for basically everyone in abby. there's no one who has clearly graduated to the nhl there)

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

raty hasn't done anything to earn a spot. if he comes into camp and amazes then he can replace aman or whatever but no one should be assuming he's on the roster

(the same goes for basically everyone in abby. there's no one who has clearly graduated to the nhl there)

Raty is 21 and still waiver exempt. Let him build on his strong finish in the AHL last year and establish himself as dominant offensive force playing big minutes. That will be much more valuable than him and PDG trying to create offense for 7 minutes a night in Vancouver.

 

[bossram]

I think Garland has pretty close to neutral value to this roster given cap considerations. I get that he’s fantastic at 5v5 production, can drive his line, can play with intensity in the playoffs, etc. It’s just his cap hit is a bit rich. Would you rather Garland, or replacing him with a $1.5-2 mill player that is 70% as effective and then using the $3-3.5 mill cap space created towards a premier forward like Reinhart or Guentzel?

I’m agnostic on Garland. I love what he brings but $5 mill on a 3rd liner is a luxury.

You're very very very likely not finding a player that is 70% effective for $2M less.

You made the case yourself. Garland brings 1st line calibre ES production and play-driving, playoff intensity. How are they improving upon that at a lower cap hit? You'd need to find a 1st line calibre player at a sub-$5M cap hit. Very tough ask.

Like how is paying $5M for a guy that can carry a line and give you 1st line ES production, "a bit rich"?

The Canucks need to add to the top-six players they already have.

 

[RobsonStreet]

Interesting. Curious what his numbers looked like this year. He didn’t seem to have the same issues but maybe that was because playing with Hughes gave him extra time and space.

His numbers from Allthreezones this year* versus last year** are interesting - his offensive zone entries went way down from 8.56 per 60 to 3.53 (as you would expect deferring to Hughes), along with his carry-ins - 34% down to 7%.

His defensive zone exits with possession increased slightly, from 5.43 per 60 to 5.80 which are around league average. In all, his defensive zone numbers look slightly better and his transition numbers look worse.

* 347 minutes tracked
** 272 minutes tracked

 

[bossram]

I think the multiplier of getting elite talent alongside Pettersson or Miller is a lot higher than the multiplier of having Joshua alongside Garland. That's why I think they ought to reallocate Garland's cap dollars to the top-six.

I think that's a big mistake. You basically nuke the Canucks' depth.

Garland is giving the club 1st line performance at ES from basically anywhere in the lineup. They need to add to that.

problem is we cannot afford to prioritize the bottom 6 over the top6. realistically they need to find 1 if not 2 wingers for the top 6 and if they can do that, they can bump Suter back down to the 3rd line and then spend whatever money that is left over on it. also you can afford to run half a season with a overpower top6 and still be in the playoff picture and get bottom 6 help during the TDL. bottom 6 prices are super affordable during the TDL compared to top6 upgrades.

Guys like Garland and Joshua performed like 1st and 2nd line players at ES this season. If you dump them, you're not really reallocating to the "top-six". You're losing top-six calibre guys and then replacing them. People are just confused by this because Garland/Joshua played on the nominal 3rd line, and the actual bottom-six talents were on the "second line" with Petey.

The Canucks need more. They need to add to them.

 

[Wisp]

i hate how much sense bringing myers back makes. secondary puck moving from a very big dude on the right side. At least he won't be making 6million.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

You're very very very likely not finding a player that is 70% effective for $2M less.

You made the case yourself. Garland brings 1st line calibre ES production and play-driving, playoff intensity. How are they improving upon that at a lower cap hit? You'd need to find a 1st line calbire player at a sub-$5M cap hit. Very tough ask.

Like how is paying $5M for a guy that can carry a line and give you 1st line ES production, "a bit rich"?

The Canucks need to add to the top-six players they already have.

Because the 3rd line generally doesn’t get that much ice time. In terms of broad strokes (not saying this is the case for every game/series), your top 6/top 4/#1 goalie are the ones that make the biggest difference in winning games. Yes depth matters, but look at Edmonton.

 

[Wisp]

raty hasn't done anything to earn a spot. if he comes into camp and amazes then he can replace aman or whatever but no one should be assuming he's on the roster

(the same goes for basically everyone in abby. there's no one who has clearly graduated to the nhl there)

Raty is a mid-season look sorta guy.

 

[theguardianII]

I want to resign Zadorov as much as anyone but I also feel like if you can replace him with Dillon for half the cost you do it. #1 goal this offseason is getting a legit top 6 winger for Pettersson.

The more I think about it the more I believe Necas is coming to Vancouver.

If 2.5 mil is over the top to get both then trade Mikheyev. The defence has depth now.

A Necas deal could include Pesce, a RHD that could play with Hughes, They could keep Zadorov then as well.
It might be addition by subtraction if Hronek is traded to Carolina in a deal that includes Necas and Pesce.

Why Carolina might do this, they have Guentzel, Terovaiinen, Jarvis, Drury and three other key FAs to resign, Guentzel will be a big ticket item likely taking up close to half their cap space. They need to improve or hold the status quo for another year or so.

Guentzel would be an absolute game changer. But at 9M we would be losing alot of our depth.

Canucks walk a tight wire here. They could do it but would have to shed Mikheyev's contract or some other player that is over 4 mil.

Here is my defence with cap hits;

Hughes 7.85 - Pesce 5.5
Zadorov 5.75 - Dillion 3
Soucy 3.25 - Myers 3.25

Total - 28.6 mil for next year, this year the cap hit was 28.25 mil.

So for an increase of about 500K the defence become a group of linebackers, younger, bigger and IF there is a bit of a step back it is made up by being harder to score goals against.

Forwards
Necas 6.5 mil - EP 11.35 mil - Guentzel - 8 mil
Boeser 6.65 - Miller 8 mil - Lindholm - 8 mil
Garland 4.75 - Blueger 2.2 - Joshua 2.75
Podkolzin 1 mil - Aman .85 - Karlsson .85

Pretty close to 61 million for those forwards
For a total of 89.6 mil.

The cap max is estimated to 87.7 +, might be up to 92 mil but the Canucks have an additional 2.5 mil LTIR allowing up to the extra 2.5 mil.
There is also the possibility that the cap goes up to over 90 mil so some of those contracts could be a little more.

So Hoglander and Mikheyev may need to be packaged in a trade for the future. Suter traded. They may need to let Blueger go too and move Lettermaki up.

They will have flexibility.

This make them the biggest team in the league. Just pushing them around will tire teams out

I do think most of these moves are possible and don't rely solely on other teams apart from the Carolina trade, to happen and that could be sweetened to make it so.

This scenario only involves the current long term rumours.

Maybe that trade includes Mikheyev and Hoglander giving them more cap certainty.

Like a game once other FAs start hearing of the improvement there could be a build up of trade momentum and added incentive to come play with a real contender.
The Canucks would be set for 4 years as cup contenders while Edmonton and Colorado are declining due to the weight of their success having tight caps and salary expectations. Vegas is getting older but who knows what they will do.

 

[StickShift]

I think that's a big mistake. You basically nuke the Canucks' depth.

Garland is giving the club 1st line performance at ES from basically anywhere in the lineup. They need to add to that.

I would argue that as long as your top-two lines are producing, you just need your bottom-six to tread water. The idea of a productive third line is a luxury not a necessity. Whereas an unproductive top-six is not going to get you very far in the playoffs.

	Last season:	What they need:
1st line (Miller)	++	+++
2nd line (Pettersson)	+	+++
3rd line (Garland)	++	=
4th line	=	=

 

[pitseleh]

His numbers from Allthreezones this year* versus last year** are interesting - his offensive zone entries went way down from 8.56 per 60 to 3.53 (as you would expect deferring to Hughes), along with his carry-ins - 34% down to 7%.

His defensive zone exits with possession increased slightly, from 5.43 per 60 to 5.80 which are around league average. In all, his defensive zone numbers look slightly better and his transition numbers look worse.

* 347 minutes tracked
** 272 minutes tracked

Thanks for sharing. Do they have a success percentage or a percentage of total exits for the zone exits with control? Would assume his rate going up would have coincided with opportunities going down moving from playing with Chariot to Hughes.

 

[UrbanImpact]

As days go by without hearing a Geuntzel contract in Carolina, im starting to wonder if he is our #1 target in the off-season.


Suter- Miller- Boeser
Hoglander- Ep40- Geuntzel
Joshua- Stephenson- Garland
Podz-Aman-PDG

Hughes- Roy
Soucy- Myers
Dillon- Juulsen

Demko
Silovs

Sign: Guentzel, Stepehnson, Roy, Dillon

Let them Walk: Lindholm, Zadorov, Bleuger, Lafferty, Cole, Desmith

Trade: Hronek for assets that we can use later to upgrade the top 6 and Dcore later on in the season. Or for a young forward that can fit into our top 6.

 

[StickShift]

If 2.5 mil is over the top to get both then trade Mikheyev. The defence has depth now.

A Necas deal could include Pesce, a RHD that could play with Hughes, They could keep Zadorov then as well.
It might be addition by subtraction if Hronek is traded to Carolina in a deal that includes Necas and Pesce.

Why Carolina might do this, they have Guentzel, Terovaiinen, Jarvis, Drury and three other key FAs to resign, Guentzel will be a big ticket item likely taking up close to half their cap space. They need to improve or hold the status quo for another year or so.

Canucks walk a tight wire here. They could do it but would have to shed Mikheyev's contract or some other player that is over 4 mil.

Here is my defence with cap hits;

Hughes 7.85 - Pesce 5.5
Zadorov 5.75 - Dillion 3
Soucy 3.25 - Myers 3.25

Total - 28.6 mil for next year, this year the cap hit was 28.25 mil.

So for an increase of about 500K the defence become a group of linebackers, younger, bigger and IF there is a bit of a step back it is made up by being harder to score goals against.

Forwards
Necas 6.5 mil - EP 11.35 mil - Guentzel - 8 mil
Boeser 6.65 - Miller 8 mil - Lindholm - 8 mil
Garland 4.75 - Blueger 2.2 - Joshua 2.75
Podkolzin 1.1 mil - Aman .85 - Karlsson .85

Pretty close to 61 million for those forwards
For a total of 89.6 mil.

The cap max is estimated to 87.7 +, might be up to 92 mil but the Canucks have an additional 2.5 mil LTIR allowing up to the extra 2.5 mil.
There is also the possibility that the cap goes up to over 90 mil so some of those contracts could be a little more.

So Hoglander and Mikheyev may need to be packaged in a trade for the future.

This make them the biggest team in the league. Just pushing them around will tire teams out

I do think most of these moves are possible and don't rely solely on other teams apart from the Carolina trade, to happen.

This scenario only involves the current long term rumours.

Maybe that trade includes Mikheyev and Hoglander giving them more cap certainty.

Like a game once other FAs start hearing of the improvement there could be a build up of trade momentum and added incentive to come play with a real contender.
The Canucks would be set for 4 years as cup contenders while Edmonton and Colorado are declining due to the weight of their success having tight caps and salary expectations. Vegas is getting older but who knows what they will do.

Some issues with this:

1. Poolman's LTIR doesn't allow the team to exceed the salary cap by $2.5m
2. You are forgetting about OEL's $2.4m buyout cap hit
3. There are hardly ever NHL teams that operate with a 20-player roster. It gives you zero room for injuries—which is hardly ever the case for Vancouver.

 

[sting101]

raty hasn't done anything to earn a spot. if he comes into camp and amazes then he can replace aman or whatever but no one should be assuming he's on the roster

(the same goes for basically everyone in abby. there's no one who has clearly graduated to the nhl there)

I dont think you were listening to Allvin then when he repeatedly referenced Abby players being ready to play.

My curiosity with it is this...

Podkolzin - will probably be the guy they really want to push for a higher role given past success and chemistry with Garland if Joshua prices himself out but will probably end up as the RW4 as he repeatedly has struggled with producing and consistency. Anyway you slice it they are counting on him to be in Vancouver and wont waive him

Bains - Has shown the trajectory to be a NHL player but needs to be more instinctive positionally as he looked lost when we didnt have the puck and lacked confidence at times with it but i think it was mostly just inexperience and pressure he put on himself. He has 3rd wheel top6 upside but he also isnt a sniper so he will have to be good in all areas and that might be a year or 2 away if ever. I'm serious when i say he might be Suter's replacement.

Karlsson - Just too slow and lumbering....cant see anything more than a 14th F depth guy who would clear waivers.

Sasson - I've been impressed. His skating is NHL level and he transitions/drives play enough that his lack of skill wont be a hindrance to replace a player like Blueger which is what they are grooming him for. Probably another year to get systems play and decision making sound and some samples of NHL play to see how he does but i think he could be our 4C in a year or 2. having Malhotra should help him too.

Raty - This is the big question mark for me? I know he mostly played LW this year so im just not sure what he is in Vancouver. Big body guy and looks the part of a 3rd liner in the NHL. Was really hoping he would be our 3C but i'm just not sure how he fits anymore. He's clearly ready to play some as a NHLer soon but still only 21 until November. Maybe they start him and Sasson 1-2 down the middle in Abby and keep him there for awhile or maybe Allvin see's him as the Joshua replacement? I'm curious how they view him now

 

[MS]

To reiterate one of my themes about what this team is trying to do—I think they want to pay the absolute minimum for bottom-six forwards.

For example. If they can get Duhaime at under $1.5m and he provides 80% of what Joshua provides. Is that worth it?

I imagine there is also a degree of skepticism about how much is Joshua a product of playing with Garland. Especially if Garland is one of the players that they move to reallocate salary. It would be a disaster if they sign Joshua to that deal and then see him struggle.

But Duhaime doesn't provide 80% of what Joshua provides. It's bad logic. Duhaime is just a 15-point 4th liner who hits.

Joshua literally has been a top-6 producing forward from bottom-6 minutes. They should honestly probably be re-signing him as a potential Pettersson linemate. And if you can get a guy who produces at this rate and provides this level of physical play at $3 million ... that's a bargain.

Garland is a good linemate but playing 3rd line minutes with Conor Garland and 40% zone starts is not some sort of gravy situation to produce and if you're discounting a guy scoring 40 ES points/82 from that situation ... that's not a good conclusion to come to.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I would find if almost comical if:
1. Myers gets shit on his entire time here
2. Finally plays well (enough) and wants to stay
3. Mgmt knows this and focuses elsewhere
4. They wait too long to sign him and he leaves

I don’t think it will happen as they likely have already talked and have numbers in mind.

But there will be interest from other teams.

 

[HockeyWooot]

raty hasn't done anything to earn a spot. if he comes into camp and amazes then he can replace aman or whatever but no one should be assuming he's on the roster

(the same goes for basically everyone in abby. there's no one who has clearly graduated to the nhl there)

Agree he hasn’t done anything to be pencilled into that spot, but he will probably get a look in camp.

Obviously it’s a huge jump from the AHL, but Raty has some tools that are already NHL ready.

Suspect they re-up Blueger or equivalent to a short term deal to hold the 3C spot until he ceases it.

This of course dependent on Joshua returning, if Raty proves NHL ready he can get carried by that Garland Johua duo.

 

[Hansen]

I dont get how they could be reluctant to give Joshua 3 when they gave Mikheyev nearly 5

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Depth is so overrated. Cups are won by riding top 4's and 6's into the ground.

Canucks upgraded their 3rd line at the deadline, just to watch it become the 2nd line, then lost to a 1 line team with a shit goalie.

Prioritize lines that actually play and are meant to outscore the opposition.

 

[credulous]

Agree he hasn’t done anything to be pencilled into that spot, but he will probably get a look in camp.

Obviously it’s a huge jump from the AHL, but Raty has some tools that are already NHL ready.

Suspect they re-up Blueger or equivalent to a short term deal to hold the 3C spot until he ceases it.

This of course dependent on Joshua returning, if Raty proves NHL ready he can get carried by that Garland Johua duo.

i'm not saying the players in abby are hopeless. i just don't think the team should be relying on anyone down there to win a spot. sign appropriate depth and let the kids earn a spot

 

[bossram]

The issue is really cap triage. If they want to get better they have to upgrade the top six, no question. But they can't do that, address the blueline (either via retaining Hronek or otherwise), and invest in premier bottom-six depth. It won't all fit. As someone above mentioned, they basically have to go budget on depth.

Yes. They'll have to cut somewhere for sure.

Don't re-sign Lindholm or Zadorov. You can find cheaper options at 3LD and 3C.

If they can jettison Mikheyev, they'll end up with quite a bit of flexibility for upgrades.

Yep. Beyond this, Joshua may even have a ceiling beyond the 3rd line. Could easily see something like Joshua-Pettersson-Arvidsson being a devastating line next year for us.

Also, retaining Joshua doesn't mean you can't find the next sub-$1M Joshua replacement! Do both! There are a lot of open spots on the roster!

Yes, that would be ideal.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Speaking of depth or the lack thereof,
Good-bye Jett Woo, we hardly knew ya.

 

[RobsonStreet]

Thanks for sharing. Do they have a success percentage or a percentage of total exits for the zone exits with control? Would assume his rate going up would have coincided with opportunities going down moving from playing with Chariot to Hughes.

Interestingly, % exits with possession is tracked, but AFAIK it’s only shown as a z-score relative to league average each season, not raw percent. In 2022-23 Hronek was z=-0.84 (aka 20th percentile), in 2023-24 he was -1.22 (11th percentile).