Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Off-Season Edition | Not satisfied, so now what?

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Last one was over 1,000. Continue here.

Vector, here, I've taken over this original post. Here's the link to my spreadsheet. Contains regularly updated capspace totals, projected rosters, and UFA & RFA lists with AFP's contract projections.

Click to read more...

 

[Nucker101]

If this management has an Achilles' heel it's going to be hubris. They seem dead convinced they can just go out and find another Joshua.

I think it's more that they want to avoid paying premium prices for non-core players which is a fine stance to take considering the dead money on this team's books. But I had a feeling Joshua was gone when Allvin slipped up with the "find the next Dakota Joshua" during locker room cleanout day.

If they're comfortable with letting him walk, they definitely have to bring in a top 9 forward with some size and physicality.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

On one hand I respect management for not marrying players and will show them the door if they can't come to an agreement. Speaks high confidence for themselves.

That said they still have to prove they can find these budget players for replacement.

Going to be a fun offseason! Think we are going to see a bigger roster turnover than one might expect.

 

[pitseleh]

I think it's more that they want to avoid paying premium prices for non-core players which is a fine stance to take considering the dead money on this team's books. But I had a feeling Joshua was gone when Allvin slipped up with the "find the next Dakota Joshua" during locker room cleanout day.

If they're comfortable with letting him walk, they definitely have to bring in a top 9 forward with some size and physicality.

Yeah, if they use their money to get a quality scoring winger and RD then pinch pennies everywhere else I will get it. But if they let him walk over 500-750k so they can run a defence with, say, Myers, Zadorov and Dillon I’ll be disappointed.

 

[arttk]

This is going to be a huge mistake on Joshua.

depends, if they upgrade the top6, both Miller and Petey's winger, then it's probably worth it. also if they can find a replacement that offers like 70% of what Joshua does for like 1-2M then it's fine.

 

[sting101]

This is going to be a huge mistake on Joshua.

i take the numbers with a grain of salt as this seems to be the way this group gets the pricing adjusted.

Leak it that your not going to a threshold that the agent is pushing, start rumours of other players you're interested in that play same role....then circle back and drive a hard deal or move on if agent and player get stuck in......and frankly i'm ok with it. Joshua is still a 3rd liner with 1 yr of being a good one.

I want him back too as he's an important part of our teams ability to play on the inside and win battles and i think this year wasn't just a mirage but we cant take losses at the negotiating table for btm 6 players

 

[arttk]

On one hand I respect management for not marrying players and will show them the door if they can't come to an agreement. Speaks high confidence for themselves.

That said they still have to prove they can find these budget players for replacement.

Going to be a fun offseason! Think we are going to see a bigger roster turnover than one might expect.

yeah if they invested a lot in proscouting then it better f***ing work

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

This is literally how scoring works and you're just making my point for me.

JT Miller had 9 points in 4 games and 3 in the other 9.

If you were expecting Dakota Joshua - a league minimum 3rd liner - to score, like 5 or 6 points in those other 11 games in addition to scoring 6 points in the 2 wins he was the 1st star of ... you're basically asking him to produce like Connor McDavid at ES, and then being disappointed when it doesn't happen.

Middle-6 players aren't going to provide you consistent ES production that works out to 60+ ES points/82 games. That's literally superstar production. The fact that he scored 50 ES points/82 in the playoffs is *EXCEPTIONAL* and people are shitting on it because most of it was in a couple dominant games. It's absolutely insane. Dakota Joshua was one of our best players in the playoffs.



Uh, Mikheyev.

My point still stands. Mgmt won't pay what Joshua wants or can get elsewhere.

 

[StickShift]

That is....quite bizarre on Joshua. Like for me, $3M AAV is totally fine on a 3 or 4 year deal. Joshua is a "premium" 3rd liner now and that's probably still a surplus value contract. He'd get more in open UFA.

I get that they are negotiations, but $2M is really a bananas number. There is no way he is signing for that. Unless they come up a lot, there's not really any way they'll keep him.

This is going to be a huge mistake on Joshua.

To reiterate one of my themes about what this team is trying to do—I think they want to pay the absolute minimum for bottom-six forwards.

For example. If they can get Duhaime at under $1.5m and he provides 80% of what Joshua provides. Is that worth it?

I imagine there is also a degree of skepticism about how much is Joshua a product of playing with Garland. Especially if Garland is one of the players that they move to reallocate salary. It would be a disaster if they sign Joshua to that deal and then see him struggle.

 

[bossram]

he's a decent puck carrier but he can't make plays under pressure so he's unreliable when it comes to moving the puck

He's a high-end two-way defenseman. He's good offensively, a good cycle stopper with a smart stick, skates well with the puck, ispositionally sound, he just doesn't make the best passes under pressure. It is what it is.

I don't really think it's that he can't move the puck (he can pass), it's that he's not great at retrievals under pressure, and that was an area of weakness identified before. IMO retrievals are probably the most important skill for a defenseman.

Playing with Hughes significantly covers this up though, because he's so sublime. Quinn can get back on the puck first, and either beat the forechecker himself or with a quick slip pass.

 

[Nucker101]

I think Garland is good enough that he can make big forwards who play with him look pretty good as long as they go to the net and don’t have hands of stone.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Can't just cherry pick his best games like they didnt happen. Most players that put up a lot of points get them in clumps as well.

Let's also not forget this was his first playoff experience.

I know a Joshua contracts will be an overpay but I don't mind on a player his age and skillset to splurge a bit. He still has potential to get better which is also crazy. Sign this guy.

Again. Mgmt won't pay what he wants. "The next Joshua" was telling.

They clearly have others in mind if it doesn't make financial sense.

 

[Bgav]

Do you guys think we can recoup a first round pick for the draft? Would you sell high on garland?

 

[credulous]

joshua is a luxury piece. he's not really an ideal top 6 forward and as a third liner you can probably get away with someone much cheaper (pdg for example, who is already signed for next year to basically the min). i don't think going 3m for him (for short term) would be a huge mistake but i also think he can easily get more on the market. save that 3m for adding an impact player to the top 6 imo

 

[bossram]

To reiterate one of my themes about what this team is trying to do—I think they want to pay the absolute minimum for bottom-six forwards.

For example. If they can get Duhaime at under $1.5m and he provides 80% of what Joshua provides. Is that worth it?

Believe me, I am one of the biggest proponents here of trying to find value in the bargain bin for your bottom-six, and not overpaying depth players. I harp on it all the time.

But the Canucks also ostensibly want to be a contending team. They still need actual quality in the bottom-six. If Joshua gets a raise, but is still on a surplus value deal (i.e. not overpaid), I am totally fine with that.

Now, if Allvin and brass think they can find the next Joshua for sub-$1M, then it's their prerogative to do so. But they've already mined so many of these diamonds in the rough, I fear that they may now be overconfident and really just end up paying a low price for a bad product. Replacing Duhaime for Joshua on the 3rd line certainly ain't it. You're not getting 80% of the performance from him. Probably not even 50%. He's a run-of-the-mill 4th liner.

joshua is a luxury piece. he's not really an ideal top 6 forward and as a third liner you can probably get away with someone much cheaper (pdg for example, who is already signed for next year to basically the min). i don't think going 3m for him (for short term) would be a huge mistake but i also think he can easily get more on the market. save that 3m for adding an impact player to the top 6 imo

PDG is not gonna cut it on a contending team's 3rd line. It just ain't dude.

Joshua's performance this season was pretty much a top-six level at even-strength. You need that kind of performance coming from your 3rd line to be a contender.

 

[sting101]

I don't really think it's that he can't move the puck (he can pass), it's that he's not great at retrievals under pressure, and that was an area of weakness identified before. IMO retrievals are probably the most important skill for a defenseman.

Playing with Hughes significantly covers this up though, because he's so sublime. Quinn can get back on the puck first, and either beat the forechecker himself or with a quick slip pass.

Yes would have been interesting to see what this off seasons perspective would be without Hughes helping him stay on the offensive so often.

Agree with what you said while he's not a high end stretch pass guy or really smart in the offensive zone he plays with a lot of high octane and moves the puck well. He also hinges excellent which is good for staying on the attack.

I would be interested in setting up to grab Theodore for next off season. Myers on a 1yr with a bigger AAV and Roy on a 4/5yr deal and move the asset then slide Roy back to RD2 and let Theodore cook with Hughes. If it yields the forward we need to fit into the core group up front that can play with Pettersson and PP1 then it's more impactful

We need to find the next Miller not Joshua

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Do you guys think we can recoup a first round pick for the draft? Would you sell high on garland?

Allvin should get a statue if he can get a 1st for Garland.

Unless of course he's adding a 1st as well.

Then he gets nothing.

 

[bossram]

I imagine there is also a degree of skepticism about how much is Joshua a product of playing with Garland. Especially if Garland is one of the players that they move to reallocate salary. It would be a disaster if they sign Joshua to that deal and then see him struggle.

I think selling Garland would be a disaster, frankly. They need more Garlands, not fewer. He's one of their forwards that can actually drive a line, and his production at even-strength is first-line calibre.

Do you guys think we can recoup a first round pick for the draft? Would you sell high on garland?

I don't know if Garland would bring a 1st back, probably not.

And there's almost no way they'll add a better player at $5M than Garland, at this point.

 

[StickShift]

Believe me, I am one of the biggest proponents here of trying to find value in the bargain bin for your bottom-six, and not overpaying depth players. I harp on it all the time.

But the Canucks also ostensibly want to be a contending team. They still need actual quality in the bottom-six. If Joshua gets a raise, but is still on a surplus value deal (i.e. not overpaid), I am totally fine with that.

Now, if Allvin and brass think they can find the next Joshua for sub-$1M, then it's their prerogative to do so. But they've already mined so many of these diamonds in the rough, I fear that they may now be overconfident and really just end up paying a low price for a bad product. Replacing Duhaime for Joshua on the 3rd line certainly ain't it. You're not getting 80% of the performance from him. Probably not even 50%. He's a run-of-the-mill 4th liner.


PDG is not gonna cut it on a contending team's 3rd line. It just ain't dude.

Joshua's performance this season was pretty much a top-six level at even-strength. You need that kind of performance coming from your 3rd line to be a contender.

Let's put this in another context:

Would you rather their top-six UFA signings be Premium 3rd-Line Winger/Average Top-Six Winger or Average 3rd-Line Winger/Premium Top-Six Winger?

I like Joshua as a player and loved the jam of our third line, but investing in that feels like a pyrrhic victory if your top-six is not generating offense like it could.

 

[sting101]

I cant see Garland getting more than a 2nd and that 2nd is useless for us and would be horrendous for our depth to lose Garland. He is the premier 3rd liner in the NHL and that's worth a lot in a match up game as we just witnessed.

Fortunately PA and JR have seen what that can do with the HBK line.

 

[StickShift]

I think selling Garland would be a disaster, frankly. They need more Garlands, not fewer. He's one of their forwards that can actually drive a line, and his production at even-strength is first-line calibre.

I think the multiplier of getting elite talent alongside Pettersson or Miller is a lot higher than the multiplier of having Joshua alongside Garland. That's why I think they ought to reallocate Garland's cap dollars to the top-six.

 

[arttk]

Believe me, I am one of the biggest proponents here of trying to find value in the bargain bin for your bottom-six, and not overpaying depth players. I harp on it all the time.

But the Canucks also ostensibly want to be a contending team. They still need actual quality in the bottom-six. If Joshua gets a raise, but is still on a surplus value deal (i.e. not overpaid), I am totally fine with that.

Now, if Allvin and brass think they can find the next Joshua for sub-$1M, then it's their prerogative to do so. But they've already mined so many of these diamonds in the rough, I fear that they may now be overconfident and really just end up paying a low price for a bad product. Replacing Duhaime for Joshua on the 3rd line certainly ain't it. You're not getting 80% of the performance from him. Probably not even 50%. He's a run-of-the-mill 4th liner.


PDG is not gonna cut it on a contending team's 3rd line. It just ain't dude.

Joshua's performance this season was pretty much a top-six level at even-strength. You need that kind of performance coming from your 3rd line to be a contender.

problem is we cannot afford to prioritize the bottom 6 over the top6. realistically they need to find 1 if not 2 wingers for the top 6 and if they can do that, they can bump Suter back down to the 3rd line and then spend whatever money that is left over on it. also you can afford to run half a season with a overpower top6 and still be in the playoff picture and get bottom 6 help during the TDL. bottom 6 prices are super affordable during the TDL compared to top6 upgrades.

 

[credulous]

i just think it's fairly easy to find a third line winger for less than 3m-4m and with garland already pretty much entrenched there committing to joshua (and a ~10m 3rd line) is a tough sell when you really only have a single top 6 winger on the roster

 

[TruGr1t]

Believe me, I am one of the biggest proponents here of trying to find value in the bargain bin for your bottom-six, and not overpaying depth players. I harp on it all the time.

But the Canucks also ostensibly want to be a contending team. They still need actual quality in the bottom-six. If Joshua gets a raise, but is still on a surplus value deal (i.e. not overpaid), I am totally fine with that.

Now, if Allvin and brass think they can find the next Joshua for sub-$1M, then it's their prerogative to do so. But they've already mined so many of these diamonds in the rough, I fear that they may now be overconfident and really just end up paying a low price for a bad product. Replacing Duhaime for Joshua on the 3rd line certainly ain't it. You're not getting 80% of the performance from him. Probably not even 50%. He's a run-of-the-mill 4th liner.

The issue is really cap triage. If they want to get better they have to upgrade the top six, no question. But they can't do that, address the blueline (either via retaining Hronek or otherwise), and invest in premier bottom-six depth. It won't all fit. As someone above mentioned, they basically have to go budget on depth.

 

[sting101]

Where does Raty fit into the equation i wonder?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

I think Garland has pretty close to neutral value to this roster given cap considerations. I get that he’s fantastic at 5v5 production, can drive his line, can play with intensity in the playoffs, etc. It’s just his cap hit is a bit rich. Would you rather Garland, or replacing him with a $1.5-2 mill player that is 70% as effective and then using the $3-3.5 mill cap space created towards a premier forward like Reinhart or Guentzel?

I’m agnostic on Garland. I love what he brings but $5 mill on a 3rd liner is a luxury.