Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Off-Season Edition | Not satisfied, so now what?

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Last one was over 1,000. Continue here.

Vector, here, I've taken over this original post. Here's the link to my spreadsheet. Contains regularly updated capspace totals, projected rosters, and UFA & RFA lists with AFP's contract projections.

Click to read more...

 

[TruGr1t]

Okay? I’m not sure why you keep bringing up Montour. He’s not a comparable.

He is by far the most proximal comp anyone would use. He's a right-side offensive defenseman that had actually less points that Hronek last season and he's 30 years old. Take a look at what AFP comps they're using to get Montour to $7.7M AAV and you'll have your comps that Hronek will use.

 

[Bleach Clean]

To be clear I completely agree with this other than Zaitsev. I just see absolutely no upside with him and think there are better options.

Talent doesn't go away Vector. He had his best years with TOR early, garnering mid-pair money. Injuries and going to consecutively worse teams has derailed his career. He is a textbook moneypuck move. That is, if he stays in NA (he likely won't).

Most other bottom pair options in FA have bottom pair ceilings. I'm curious if you see any with mid-pair upside? (please list)

 

[Vector]

He is by far the most proximal comp anyone would use. He's a right-side offensive defenseman that had actually less points that Hronek last season and he's 30 years old. Take a look at what AFP comps they're using to get Montour to $7.7M AAV and you'll have your comps that Hronek will use.

Per the bolder, please look at the pinned first post and go through my spreadsheet. You will then know that, I have looked extensively at AFP.

Montour is not a comparable because that is a contract prediction. Most recent comparables would be Forsling and Hanifin. Those aren’t perfect because both were due to be UFA but are close in age.

 

[Vector]

Talent doesn't go away Vector. He had his best years with TOR early, garnering mid-pair money. Injuries and going to consecutively worse teams has derailed his career. He is a textbook moneypuck move. That is, if he stays in NA (he likely won't).

Most other bottom pair options in FA have bottom pair ceilings. I'm curious if you see any with mid-pair upside? (please list)

Talent…doesn’t go away? It absolutely does. Especially with age and injuries. His first season was really his only season that flashed skill and has been middling to bad ever since. 32 year old oft injured defencemen don’t suddenly play like they are 10 years younger.

I’ll look through the various lists later tonight and see who I can identify. Don’t have the time right this minute.

 

[TruGr1t]

Per the bolder, please look at the pinned first post and go through my spreadsheet. You will then know that, I have looked extensively at AFP.

Montour is not a comparable because that is a contract prediction. Most recent comparables would be Forsling and Hanifin. Those aren’t perfect because both were due to be UFA but are close in age.

That's not what I'm saying, you're misunderstanding. Take the comps they used to get the Montour prediction, and you will have a good idea why Hronek thinks he's worth $8M AAV. He will use a series of the same comps. Whether you agree with it or not is entirely your own business.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Opposite numbers.

Oh we really should standardize using the ($) because I checked and people on here write it both ways.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

The narrative that Joshua was good in the playoffs is baffling.

Other than Game 1 against Nashville, he did nothing.

Garland was much more impactful.

Think mgmt knows this and won’t pay him what he wants.

I expect him to land somewhere else in FA.

 

[Vector]

That's not what I'm saying, you're misunderstanding. Take the comps they used to get the Montour prediction, and you will have a good idea why Hronek thinks he's worth $8M AAV. He will use a series of the same comps. Whether you agree with it or not is entirely your own business.

I know what you’re saying but don’t understand why Montour’s comps would affect Hronek.

Looking closer and comparing ages, Mackenzie Weegar is the only comparison that is the only one of Montour's that wasn't as a UFA. Weegar's was an extension and his was only 6.25m. It's also the most recent.

 

[Wisp]

8 points in 13 games from Joshua is pretty good. I don't know why you're trying to downplay him, contract negotiations don't happen on HF boards.

 

[Wisp]

Chychrun could be available based on past rumours and Ottawa’s current state. I think he would improve a lot under Tocchet and Foote. He’s not that far removed from almost being a PPG in Arizona.

Ottawa is definitely a team to take advantage of. Chychrun on the right side for 4.6 million is a sight better than throwing more than that at Zadarov.

He's a UFA next season though, that's the risk.

 

[Vector]

Ottawa is definitely a team to take advantage of. Chychrun on the right side for 4.6 million is a sight better than throwing more than that at Zadarov.

He's a UFA next season though, that's the risk.

He’s a lefty.

 

[Jerry the great]

Ottawa is definitely a team to take advantage of. Chychrun on the right side for 4.6 million is a sight better than throwing more than that at Zadarov.

He's a UFA next season though, that's the risk.

I would take Zadorov at $6mm over Chychrun. Considering the likely acquisition cost it's not even close.

 

[credulous]

I would take Zadorov at $6mm over Chychrun. Considering the likely acquisition cost it's not even close.

good thing you don't run the canucks

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

He’s a lefty.

He can play both sides and spent a fair amount of time playing the right side last season, although I’ve seen other posters on here mention how Tocchet doesn’t like left handed players playing the right side and vice versa.

Edit - I checked and at even strength he played 361 mins with Chabot (LD) and 151 mins with Sanderson (LD), so about 32% of the season playing RD.

 

[TruGr1t]

I know what you’re saying but don’t understand why Montour’s comps would affect Hronek.

Looking closer and comparing ages, Mackenzie Weegar is the only comparison that is the only one of Montour's that wasn't as a UFA. Weegar's was an extension and his was only 6.25m. It's also the most recent.

There aren't going to be many recent for either. As far as I can recall, AFP is using Hronek comps from a while ago (Sergechev, OEL, Trouba) and Montour is like Hamilton, Weeger, and Carlson or something. Regardless, the system puts them at about exactly the same AAV range.

 

[credulous]

hronek's arb case is dahlin, werenski, mcavoy, sergachev. all signed as rfas with arb rights. hronek isn't as good as any of them but he's not far off. i think he has a pretty good case for 8m

 

[TruGr1t]

hronek's arb case is dahlin, werenski, mcavoy, sergachev. all signed as rfas with arb rights. hronek isn't as good as any of them but he's not far off. i think he has a pretty good case for 8m

He'd get well over $7M AAV minimum, probably around $7.5M on the low end, but yeah he could well see $8M. There was some discussion on the Canucks going short and kicking the can down the road, but the problem is he will still probably get a big, swacking AAV.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

I would take Zadorov at $6mm over Chychrun. Considering the likely acquisition cost it's not even close.

He regressed last season and only has one year left on his contract until he’s a UFA. He was traded with 2.5 seasons left on his contract for a conditional 1st (top 5 protected otherwise it deferred to the next season) and two 2nd round picks. You’d think he’d now be worth about a late 1st + B prospect at the deadline.

 

[Jerry the great]

good thing you don't run the canucks

haha obviously fair. He's going to cost high end prospects/young players/picks and then you're going to have to pay through the nose to keep him (if he's even willing to stay). i also don't think he's that good a player....and doesn't fill a hole for us going forward.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

We either sign Hronek at 7.5+ or trade him. Can't see him coming in any cheaper unless it's a 1 year deal to take him to UFA which he then probably walks for nothing.

 

[credulous]

He'd get well over $7M AAV minimum, probably around $7.5M on the low end, but yeah he could well see $8M. There was some discussion on the Canucks going short and kicking the can down the road, but the problem is he will still probably get a big, swacking AAV.

i'm talking about a possible arb award. i think it could be north of 8m but it'll only be one year. he'd probably sign for less if it came with term but also his agent is walsh so who knows. he might want the one year deal

haha obviously fair. He's going to cost high end prospects/young players/picks and then you're going to have to pay through the nose to keep him (if he's even willing to stay). i also don't think he's that good a player....and doesn't fill a hole for us going forward.

i mean i don't think the canucks should trade for him but he's much better than zadarov

 

[Vector]

@credulous I don’t think he’d win an arbitration case of a 1-2 contract at 8m. The contracts put out there probably wouldn’t hold up as comparable given their length.

When was the last time a player like him even went to arbitration?

 

[TruGr1t]

i'm talking about a possible arb award. i think it could be north of 8m but it'll only be one year. he'd probably sign for less if it came with term but also his agent is walsh so who knows. he might want the one year deal



i mean i don't think the canucks should trade for him but he's much better than zadarov

Yes got it, and I’d agree. A few media people have been trumpeting his $8M+ arb award for a while, he’s got a rare case and I could certainly also see it. Canucks won’t let him get there, though, I don’t think.

 

[credulous]

@credulous I don’t think he’d win an arbitration case of a 1-2 contract at 8m. The contracts put out there probably wouldn’t hold up as comparable given their length.

When was the last time a player like him even went to arbitration?

they look at all rfa contracts, not just arb awards. the length of those contracts work against the canucks i think. the expectation is that you get less AAC with more term. those are all 6+ year contracts

the "good" comps for the canucks are dunn and theodore but theodore was way back in 2018 and dunn isn't even that good for them. they can't introduce players like weegar and forsling because those contracts were signed as ufas

 

[Grub]

With Willander coming up, is it really wise to spend 7.5 on Hronek? I think Soucy and Zadorov is a good top 4 choice. With that said any Hronek replacement would probably cost the same or 1 million dollar cheaper, it's really hard to get these top 4 D-men.

I'm pretty sure the Canucks are going to sign Tanev in the off season.