Seravalli: Canes discussing long term deal with Kotkaniemi, Canes want 8 years

[HuGort]

Canes must be satisfied with KK

 

[Chips]

People are going to be in for quite a shock when inflation starts really hitting the NHL in the next couple of years.
I have a feeling the HRR owed to the owners is going to get paid back pretty quick if they don't have some type of interest mechanism to account for inflation in the "loan"

They’ll just get it back in the next lockout

 

[Hostile Offer]

Depends obviously on the AAV but in general I don't think you should be giving 8 year deals for guys that haven't really established themselves yet and are not one of your top six forwards. But then again, the Canes already went thinking outside the box with the whole KK acquiring process so who's gonna say they won't do it again? It's going to be an odd deal regardless of the AAV, if max term is what it ends up being.

 

[Mandala]

Eight years I guess why not? Maybe they are playing him less to bring down his numbers to justify a cheap contract long term? No idea but we will find out. I remember him for great passes so he has potential to be a great player.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don’t put much stock in the 8 year talk. As we’ve seen with past negotiations (Faulk, Aho, Hamilton, etc..), what they say vs. what they do isn’t always in synch.

i can see them offering a lower dollar 8 year deal, which Kotkaniemi would easily reject. If they aren’t able to sign him or don’t qualify him, they can say “we tried”.

 

[Tripledeke333]

It's not Kotkaniemi that wants eight years... It's Carolina that wants it?

This doesn't make any sense.

Carolina is suffering from "sunk loss syndrome". They already spent a 1st and $6M in cap space on him, so they are going to double down in hopes he improves.

 

[Tripledeke333]

6m is his q.o. it's a perfectly fair number to reference

Yeah, why would KK take anything less than his QO without testing free agency?

 

[GrandBison]

No, those two aren't the only outcomes of arbitration, that was my point.

Let's hope someone who actually knows lays it out. (I really don't.)

There would have more than 2 outcomes in the scenario where the Habs signed him, but Habs are losing leverage for RFA years or trade possibility. The possible outcomes:

Negotiated short or long term deal (or accepted offer by Kotkaniemi)
QO at 6.1+
QO in order to go to arbitration at 5.3+ minimum (and probably max) leading to a 5.3+ QO the next year.
Letting him go UFA

 

[NewEraGM]

COVID repayment will occur over the next few years. I believe 2025 when repayment is supposed to be over? Correct me if I'm wrong.
Cap will start jumping dramatically after that I assume. Overall inflation is going to be around 30% between now and then on everyday stuff, due to how much money has been printed. It hit houses right away, now it's hitting gas/energy which will lead to price increases for other commodities.
Until then we'll still get our usual $1m post-COVID cap increase - so the cap will still increase a little bit.
People really really struggle with understanding cap hit as percentage of the team's salary and how that changes over time.
$6m isn't big money anymore. It's top-six money and it will soon be middle-six money. 8 x $6m won't be as much of a burden in the future. If they get him at less it's a deal.

Well you can justify it by talking about inflation and cap going up as you did, but 4M for 8 years is way to much . Again, you can say well inflation and cap will go up sure, but if you could get him at 3M instead of 4M, the 4M is still a bad deal regardless of the increasing cap.

 

[xECK29x]

Zero reason for Carolina to do this unless that cap hit is crazy low, and they want to continue the cringe Carolina/Montreal Twitter fights going.

 

[WTFMAN99]

3-3.5M x8 years isn't awful if he's gonna be the 3C for the long term.

 

[viceroy]

Anywho guys, don't try to use logic to predict the AAV or term because this seems to be coming from the owner. Don't blame the GM, Tom Dundon seems a vindictive sort so who knows what happens. He may walk away from the player just happy to have screwed with MTL.

 

[AvatarAang]

man it’s cringe seeing you so upset about the habs all the time. It was one series

LOL habs fans still clinging onto that playoff run

Notice how you’re the only one that’s still talking about that series? Cringe indeed.

 

[Doc5]

Carolina is suffering from "sunk loss syndrome". They already spent a 1st and $6M in cap space on him, so they are going to double down in hopes he improves.

Possibly, but I think you mean sunk cost.

An 8 year deal under 4M AAV will definitely turn out well for the Canes.

 

[AvatarAang]

Whining about a 22 pts in 51 games player making 6.1 mil?

We're not whining about that, but Canes fans should..

Carolina poached your recent 3rd overall pick, contributing to getting your GM fired. Their team is headed to the playoffs while the habs are headed to the lottery.

Somehow I don’t think they will be too upset even if Kotkaniemi walks. They embarrassed your team and that alone is worth a 1st round pick lmao

 

[Theodore450]

I think people forget how young he is because he was chucked in at the deep end so quickly. He's the same age as the likes of Dylan Cozens. Had his development not been hit by expecting him to be a top 6 C instantly, this would have been the type of season he'd have been having at 19. On pace for 35-40 points playing down the roster at times. He'll turn into a solid 40-50 point player so trying to sign him on a deal for 8 years could be great.

Under $5m per year and it'll look a good contract in 2-3 years.

Lmao this is such a fake narrative

 

[FerrisRox]

Yeah, why would KK take anything less than his QO without testing free agency?

Because at a free agent he'd be lucky to get anything more than three years I expect. No team is going to give him a long term offer on what he's shown so far.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Carolina poached your recent 3rd overall pick, contributing to getting your GM fired. Their team is headed to the playoffs while the habs are headed to the lottery.

Somehow I don’t think they will be too upset even if Kotkaniemi walks. They embarrassed your team and that alone is worth a 1st round pick lmao

Your second paragraph is ridiculous. Of course Carolina expected a long term return on the move. As you said, they targeted a former 3rd overall draft pick.

Otherwise they keep their own first round pick to acquire a rental at the trade deadline.

If a GM believes "embarrassing a team" is worth losing a 1st round pick while being a legitimate contender, they would not be employed much longer.

 

[Lempo]

Not to threadjack too much, but for others' enlightenment, MM is leftover/shorthand from Roman numerals

M=1000
MM = 1000 x 1000 = 1 million

MM is 2000 in Roman numerals and not 1,000,000 though, so no. I'll accept if it means Million Monies.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He’s the same player that he was with the Habs. I see no improvement which is surprising. I thought playing on the Canes would allow him to expand his game and improve his skating. Guess not…

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He’s the same player that he was with the Habs. I see no improvement which is surprising. I thought playing on the Canes would allow him to expand his game and improve his skating. Guess not…

5 yrs at 2.5 per is the max he should get.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Seravelli hunting for clicks. Times must be tough

 

[NobleSix]

6.9 x 8 would be great value.

I cannot believe what most of you guys are throwing,
under 4, and 4.5?.... LOL.

Oh yeah, almost 7m for 8 years would be amazing value... for Kotkaniemi. Certainly not for the Hurricanes.

The guy has a career high of 34 points, and there's a good chance he won't even surpass that in his 4th season.

A 4m for 2 year deal would be reasonable for both sides. I'm not really sure why either side would want an 8 year deal at this point to be honest. Kotkaniemi hasn't shown anything to warrant a long term deal, and you would think he would want to bet on himself instead of settling for a low AAV on a long term contract.

 

[SirSamofHouseBennett]

Consider the obvious: the source for this "report" is likely the player's agent, as is the case with the massive bulk of these rumors. Anything to nudge the perceived value of their client. Which is the agent's job, but it's up to us to stop consuming and push back against rumors from reporters whose rumors almost never come to pass and are basically mouthpieces for agents at this point.

This is 100% truth.

 

[japhi]

3-3.5M x8 years isn't awful if he's gonna be the 3C for the long term.

No way he signs for that amount when he has 1/4 of that guaranteed or FA available.