Seravalli: Canes discussing long term deal with Kotkaniemi, Canes want 8 years

[The Abusement Park]

Nate Mack scored 63 points in 82 games in his rookie year and then had back-to-back-to-back 50+ point seasons (rough for him given where he went after that)

Kotkaniemi has 84 points in 222 games.

I really wanted him to work in Montreal - I was okay with him leaving and wished him well in Carolina - he seems like a great guy, but he is not going to turn into anything unless something drastically changes. Even this year, he has 22 points (11/11) but he is shooting at 17.5% ... unless something clicks overnight he will top out at a 30-40 point supporting role 3C

That's why I said in theory. He's not going to get as much as Mack, but they're hoping for a similar situation.

 

[HuGo Sham]

hey if they can get him at around 4 mill per for 8 years, why not? he's only 21 and at worst projects as 3C.
Kotkaniemi gets his term and security and a cap restricted team like canes get cost certainty with trochek
and neiderriter expected to walk?

 

[Andrewcoursol]

Maybe the Habs can offer sheet him.

I am pretty sure that the offer sheet would be less than 6 million per season, but if the canes do well in the playoffs, and KK produces like last season maybe the laffs offer him a lot of money, they do that with young players.

 

[rumrokh]

It's not Kotkaniemi that wants eight years... It's Carolina that wants it?

This doesn't make any sense.

Consider the obvious: the source for this "report" is likely the player's agent, as is the case with the massive bulk of these rumors. Anything to nudge the perceived value of their client. Which is the agent's job, but it's up to us to stop consuming and push back against rumors from reporters whose rumors almost never come to pass and are basically mouthpieces for agents at this point.

 

[Frank Drebin]

This is the exact opposite of what I thought Carolina would want, this type of player screams bridge deal (I know you don't bridge a ufa)

8 years, $48,800,280.

The final insult

 

[Siludin]

It's rare, but there are players who have blossomed past in or past their D+5 years. Linndholm, Zibenejad, MacKinnon.

Not saying that will happen to Kotkaniemi, but he's having a decent year playing lower lines and no powerplay time, he's a prime candidate for a breakout if given more of a chance. Betting on himself to breakout isn't that crazy.

I agree.
People severely underplay how much relative ice time plays a factor in a player's offensive contributions.
There are economies of scale in giving good players more ice time and people on HFBoards are totally blind to it.
Consider a lot of the interactions between players on the ice can turn into a bit of a rock-paper-scissors affair - defensemen picking up on forward tendencies, forwards testing defensemen weaknesses, etc.
More exposure throughout the game DRAMATICALLY increases a forward's scoring potential.
An example of what this looks like: assuming we're at even strength and holding line matching constant, a good player getting 10 goals and 10 assists with 10 minutes a game will not simply get 20 goals and 20 assists with 20 minutes of ice time, but likely 25-30 goals and 25-30 assists.

 

[periferal]

If the Canes really want to troll Montreal once and for all, they should resign Kotkaniemi to 5 years and 42 million.

 

[kerrabria]

Eriksson-Ek signed for $5.25 mil x 8 in a flat cap environment last Summer after a 2 year bridge. That should be the very top end of the range.

Don't necessarily agree.
JEE had 96 points in 266 games and was 24-years-old when signed that contract.
Kot currently has 84 points in 222 games and is only 21-years-old.

JEE did get Selke votes last year, but he also was playing 5 minutes more per night and was significantly worse on face-offs than Kotkoniemi is this season.

My point being that when JEE signed that contract, I don't think his team expected that he had nearly the same amount of room to grow as Carolina sees Kotkaniemi as having.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

If the Canes really want to troll Montreal once and for all, they should resign Kotkaniemi to 5 years and 42 million.

You know that the entire management was fired right? Except 2 assistant coaches... for now

 

[periferal]

You know that the entire management was fired right? Except 2 assistant coaches... for now

Aware, but guessing you didn't realize my post...

1. Was really about the Canes.
2. Was a joke.

 

[japhi]

My biggest concern with KK's upside is his skating. Single reason he hasn't had success up the lineup is he can't keep up with top 6 speed. And the league is getting faster.

Still a lock for 35-40 so could be a steal here.

 

[Sheppy]

Ok, I must really, really be missing something with this guy. I didn't think he was worth his first contract with the Canes.

 

[FerrisRox]

It's rare, but there are players who have blossomed past in or past their D+5 years. Linndholm, Zibenejad, MacKinnon.

Not saying that will happen to Kotkaniemi, but he's having a decent year playing lower lines and no powerplay time, he's a prime candidate for a breakout if given more of a chance. Betting on himself to breakout isn't that crazy.

Nathan MacKinnon scored 63 points as a rookie. Kotkaniemi scored 62 in his first three seasons combined.

Zibanejad didn't play an 80 game season til his fourth year, and when he did, he scored 20-goal and 46 points.

Lindholm I will grant you took five years - and a change of scenery - break out. Kotkaniemi didn't break out with the change of scenery.

You can say betting on his breakout "isn't crazy" but they aren't just betting on him to breakout, they are betting on the breakout *and* making an eight year commitment. I think that's beyond crazy. It's idiotic.

 

[FerrisRox]

More likely, they see something in Kotkaniemi moving forward that isn't visible in the present.

If it's not visible in the present... how do they see it?

 

[1909]

Carolina should sign him for eight years, $9 million/ season.

He deserves 8 years at 1 million per year.

 

[deckercky]

He is super young and his floor should be 15/20 with 25/25 upside so I can see the appeal of a long term deal. He will likely never justify his draft position but no doubt he will be a decent player. So ya if you get him at 3.5 that’s good value.

Not sure why KK would do a deal under 5 though, he can walk as a FA next year or take 6mm for 1. So hard to believe this comes together unless the pay him for 25/25 upside.

If there's $30m-36m on the table, he probably should take it. Given his production to date, there's a good chance this exceeds his career earnings on shorter term contracts. On top of that, it provides him insurance in case he suffers an injury in the future.

 

[samsagat]

Can’t wait for habs fans to stop whining about Kotkaniemi at 6M and start whining about Kotkaniemi for 8 years.

Whining about a 22 pts in 51 games player making 6.1 mil?

We're not whining about that, but Canes fans should..

 

[YP44]

Giving Kotkaniemi an 8 year deal with what he has shown so far in the NHL would be bizarre. But maybe I'm just more conservative with who I want to give out long term contracts to.

it's bizarre to me that it is the team that wants it to be 8 years. Maybe it is a low cap hit or they see something special in him I am missing

 

[BLNY]

Can’t wait for habs fans to stop whining about Kotkaniemi at 6M and start whining about Kotkaniemi for 8 years.

Would we have liked to keep him - especially with the staff we have now? Sure. Not at $6m though. Sorry to spoil your narrative though. No one is whining.

 

[CupInSIX]

Am I to understand he's not getting his 6.1M qualifying offer?

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

Nobody can hear you laughing from the basement

man it’s cringe seeing you so upset about the habs all the time. It was one series

 

[Mickey Marner]

When something isn't worth it once, I too make sure to do it eight more times.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Not exactly the same circumstances, but the approach kinda reminds me of Ellers last two contracts - lock up a guy who is at least a solid 3rd liner with a pretty good playoff track record longterm at approx. 5% of the cap.
If they can get him in the 4-4.5m range, I think it will be a solid deal for Carolina. If not a steal, then fair. But I have stayed pretty consistent in my view of KK since he was drafted - upside of an above-average, all-situations 2C; downside of an above-average, all-situations 3C.

When something isn't worth it once, I too make sure to do it eight more times.

So, what did do with the time you saved from not reading the article?

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

8 years $4.5M AAV is fair with a NMC.

 

[CupInSIX]

8 years $4.5M AAV is fair with a NMC.

The no move is a bit much.