Can we beat Tampa?

[thusk]

That's a seriously generous way to spin the 3rd collapse/choke by the Leafs in the past 4 playoffs ... "It was all the refs fault." No, it wasn't

As for the comparisons, sure, overall Matthews and Marner posted better stats than the Bolts top guys, but you missed completely on the point I was making, or inadvertently confirmed it: In the end the series was not decided by the top stars, it was 2 goals by a depth player.

The serie was not decided by key player?

Who scored all leafs goal game 7? Matthews and JT

Who scored tying goal and game winning goal kucherov and point...so you can tell key player not decided pf serie, its false...

But i understand your point than where leafs lost is because of depht and sure depht was not good enough and thats why dubas change completly their bottom 6 with only kampf as remaining player

 

[Maple Leaf]

Yea but first round is meaningless to me

 

[authentic]

That's a seriously generous way to spin the 3rd collapse/choke by the Leafs in the past 4 playoffs ... "It was all the refs fault." No, it wasn't

As for the comparisons, sure, overall Matthews and Marner posted better stats than the Bolts top guys, but you missed completely on the point I was making, or inadvertently confirmed it: In the end the series was not decided by the top stars, it was 2 goals by a depth player.

That's true but it wouldn't even have gone to game 7 without their phantom 5 on 3 in game 6. Surely you could've seen the difference between our series against Tampa and our previous ones where we really had no excuses.

 

[ChurchOfMatthews]

We can and we will.

 

[Superstar]

Beating Tampa? Sure. Beating Tampa and the refs? No. How many straight games of 5-on-3 powerplays will Tampa get against the Leafs this spring? Will the refs make history again?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This team can beat anybody in this league they have great center depth, elite wingers at least on the right side.

They have a minimum of 9, and as many as 11 NHL caliber D.

And they have 3 good goalies, and yes as much as I don't trust Murray's health, when he has played he's been good.

If this team can bring their A game they can beat anybody in this league.

This is the deepest team I have seen in 22 years.

 

[kevsh]

Who scored all leafs goal game 7? Matthews and JT

Not disagreeing with your entire post, but not exactly what you mean here?

Reilly scored the only goal for the Leafs in game 7 last year, Nylander scored the only goal vs. Montreal in their game 7, and vs. Columbus they were shut out in game 5, though Tavares scored the only Leafs goal vs. Boston II.

So now that you mention it, the stat line for the Leafs top players in the past 4 series-deciding games:

Total Leafs goals: 3 Opponents: 13
Matthews: 0
Tavares: 1
Marner: 0
Nylander: 1

So the Leafs' stars didn't step up, but neither did anyone else on the team. Meanwhile, their opponents didn't seem to have that problem: If their stars didn't get it done (Tampa Bay, for example), their depth guys did (like Paul).

 

[crump]

Things that have stopped us before:
-Blown series and game leads
-Outgoaltended
-Outhit/outmuscled
-outcoached
-poor defensive system
-Out scored by depth players
-Injuries suspensions to key players
-Inequitable penalties? Maybe or just taking penalties at the wrong time

I have a hard time believing there is some evil referee cabal against the Leafs. Some games have been slanted (that game 2 against Boston sticks out and the 5-3’s against Tampa)

In tight series and a game 7, small bad plays are magnified. But the key to me is fixing those things listed above so we don’t get to the point where 1 mistake blows a series for us. We have the depth and grit now, our defensive game is better than 4 years ago, and we need limit mistakes and be healthy. Coaching decisions are still a concern. But #1 is our goaltending needs to be hot

 

[thusk]

Not disagreeing with your entire post, but not exactly what you mean here?

Reilly scored the only goal for the Leafs in game 7 last year, Nylander scored the only goal vs. Montreal in their game 7, and vs. Columbus they were shut out in game 5, though Tavares scored the only Leafs goal vs. Boston II.

So now that you mention it, the stat line for the Leafs top players in the past 4 series-deciding games:

Total Leafs goals: 3 Opponents: 13
Matthews: 0
Tavares: 1
Marner: 0
Nylander: 1

So the Leafs' stars didn't step up, but neither did anyone else on the team. Meanwhile, their opponents didn't seem to have that problem: If their stars didn't get it done (Tampa Bay, for example), their depth guys did (like Paul).

But if leafs won game #5 or 6 vs mtl, game #6 against tampa... leafs dont play any game #7

Its not only game #7 whos matter

How many game #7 colorado won ? 0
How many game #7 won by tampa during his 2 cup? 1 and they won it 1-0

With all the pressure leafs having on leafs shoulder, if they avoid #7 game, they raise drastically chance of winning...at least for 1st round

 

[Notsince67]

That's a seriously generous way to spin the 3rd collapse/choke by the Leafs in the past 4 playoffs ... "It was all the refs fault." No, it wasn't

As for the comparisons, sure, overall Matthews and Marner posted better stats than the Bolts top guys, but you missed completely on the point I was making, or inadvertently confirmed it: In the end the series was not decided by the top stars, it was 2 goals by a depth player.

Take a look at the average number of penalty stats regular season vs playoffs and say that again.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/a-breakdown-of-penalties-during-the-stanley-cup-playoffs#:~:text=Contrary%20to%20expectations%2C%20officials%20have,less%20than%20in%20the%20playoffs.

 

[RDTBay4]

But if leafs won game #5 or 6 vs mtl, game #6 against tampa... leafs dont play any game #7

Its not only game #7 whos matter

How many game #7 colorado won ? 0
How many game #7 won by tampa during his 2 cup? 1 and they won it 1-0

With all the pressure leafs having on leafs shoulder, if they avoid #7 game, they raise drastically chance of winning...at least for 1st round

History shows that winning the series in the 4th, 5th, or 6th game increases the chances of winning the series by 100%.

 

[thusk]

History shows that winning the series in the 4th, 5th, or 6th game increases the chances of winning the series by 100%.

Its not the point...

Chance leafs win a game #6 to close a serie is higher than winning a game 7. Normally chance to win a game is around 50-50... but game #7 with all pressure coming with past failure, pressure of toronto market... i think its look more like 35-65. When they will finally win one, thats will change but right now the pressure is just too high

 

[The Podium]

Apparently we can't beat them because their bottom 4 of Cole, Perbix, Fleury, and Bogosian are elite.

I keep hearing people, professional or otherwise, talking about Tampas strong D and I just don’t get it.

Having those 4 as regulars coupled with their 15 GA/GP in the standings all while having the best goalie in the league should be a huge red flag.

I guess when you build a reputation it’s hard to break it, even with sound logic.

 

[LurkMuller]

I keep hearing people, professional or otherwise, talking about Tampas strong D and I just don’t get it.

Having those 4 as regulars coupled with their 15 GA/GP in the standings all while having the best goalie in the league should be a huge red flag.

I guess when you build a reputation it’s hard to break it, even with sound logic.

"Tampa Bay GM Julien BriseBois boldly backed his defence, and I’d expect nothing less. But I do think he looked pretty hard at other options. The Lightning dealt most of their draft capital in search of a third Stanley Cup in four seasons, and simply ran out of assets. It’s believed the Lightning asked about Radko Gudas; I’m not surprised he stayed a Panther instead of ending up across-state. Last weekend was a nightmare for Tampa, but write them off at your own peril."

From Friedman 32 thoughts article. They tried to address it but didn't have the assets to get it done.

 

[RDTBay4]

I keep hearing people, professional or otherwise, talking about Tampas strong D and I just don’t get it.

Having those 4 as regulars coupled with their 15 GA/GP in the standings all while having the best goalie in the league should be a huge red flag.

I guess when you build a reputation it’s hard to break it, even with sound logic.

Our defense is an abomination this year. Unforced errors, mystifying turnovers in the d-zone, giveaways right in front of our net, failed clears and more. We really miss McDonagh and Rutta.

 

[AllDay28]

We? As in the fans? Definitely not.

The leafs? Probably

 

[leafsfan5]

Take a look at the average number of penalty stats regular season vs playoffs and say that again.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/a-breakdown-of-penalties-during-the-stanley-cup-playoffs#:~:text=Contrary%20to%20expectations%2C%20officials%20have,less%20than%20in%20the%20playoffs.

We actually got f***ed over so bad lmao

 

[thusk]

Our defense is an abomination this year. Unforced errors, mystifying turnovers in the d-zone, giveaways right in front of our net, failed clears and more. We really miss McDonagh and Rutta.

For a team who got his succes with their defensive game, Do you think tampa have tool to overcome those 2 lost + palat come playoff time or the edge is too high?

 

[thewave]

View attachment 665948
We actually got f***ed over so bad lmao

We absolutely do. Mostly by French refs too.

 

[Brown Dog]

It's pretty insane that we have lost 6 consecutive first-round playoff series, especially when all have been so painfully close. And when our team has been strong enough on paper to win every time.

That they have gone five straight years of taking the series to the brink only to lose that decisive game defies logic and the odds (and the other series was arguably just as close--6 one-goal games against Washington and all but one needed OT).

It's to the point where you honestly have to wonder if there is some sort of black magic going on. I'm so broken from it all that I can't summon any optimism for this year's edition of the playoffs, as I fully expect another crushing disappointment.

(Of course optimism is needed for the inevitable disappointment to be fully crushing, so I'm sure there'll be a point where it will look like they are in control of the series and I'll allow myself to believe again.)

 

[X66]

Our defense is an abomination this year. Unforced errors, mystifying turnovers in the d-zone, giveaways right in front of our net, failed clears and more. We really miss McDonagh and Rutta.

I've been telling people that Tampa's defensive game has taken a big hit this year and a lot of that also has to do with Hedman not being himself.

But they still have Vash and that can fix holes in any playoff series.

 

[leafsfan5]

I've been telling people that Tampa's defensive game has taken a big hit this year and a lot of that also has to do with Hedman not being himself.

But they still have Vash and that can fix holes in any playoff series.

Like that poster mentioned, the loss of McDonagh is huge and changed the entire outlook of the defensive core. During their cup runs TB had the perfect shutdown pair of McDonagh - Cernak. Those two are a great balance of grit and defensive excellence, allowing the likes of Hedman + Sergachev to dominate easier matchups. I believe McDonagh is arguably the most underrated defenseman of his generation tbh, a prime version of him on the Leafs would be a perfect fit

That benefit for TB is gone. There is no McDonagh to create that amazing shutdown pair that gives other guys ideal opportunities. As a result, they need Hedman to be the top end defensemen that he is known to be and dominate tougher usage, but he hasn't done that like you mentioned

Maybe Hedman turns it around and figures it out for game 1, who knows. Nonetheless, I expect come playoff time TB will go back to their system where they collapse to the net and try to block everything. That should help their defensive numbers improve, but we will see how badly they miss McDonagh in a playoff setting where matchups are key

 

[PROUD PAPA]

Been watching quite a few of their games the last 5-6 weeks. They’re certainly not what they used to be.

 

[saltming]

 

[ECanuck]

Got enough sandpaper now. Our young gunz have enough physical and mental scars to carry over in the endless battle.