Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[JackSlater]

How much talk there is about McDavid not winning after that performance vs Draisaitl not winning with his 2 goals the last 2 round of the playoff performance, show the gap that was created between the 2.

Not so long ago there was some they are close to each other's in the playoff talk. People expecting him despite Drai injury was putting the bar quite high.

People get confused when thinking about players in the playoffs. Draisaitl has had some interesting playoff results (the series against Calgary where he significantly outscored McDavid despite McDavid outplaying him pretty cleanly was surprising, for example) but anyone worth discussing with already knew that McDavid was a better player than Draisaitl regardless of time of year.

Then again there are people who would regard McDavid as a better player if Draisaitl hadn't gotten injured in the 2024 playoffs.

 

[MadLuke]

I wonder if part of it is a bit wanting to create narrative to have something going, all the talks about x > McDavid after the 2018 season (and the Crosby ~= McDavis was now clearly over), always fill a bit like wanting it to be true, to have a narrative.

When there a rotation of challenger (Mack, Drai, Kucherov, Makar, etc...) but someone is always there, it usually answer the question, like all the talks about X>Mahomes before last year playoff that people tried to do.

 

[JackSlater]

I wonder if part of it is a bit wanting to create narrative to have something going, all the talks about x > McDavid after the 2018 season (and the Crosby ~= McDavis was now clearly over), always fill a bit like wanting it to be true, to have a narrative.

When there a rotation of challenger (Mack, Drai, Kucherov, Makar, etc...) but someone is always there, it usually answer the question, like all the talks about X>Mahomes before last year playoff that people tried to do.

There's that, but I think people just don't know how to wrap their minds around the playoffs, as in that the sample size is small and that there is big variance in opponents compared to the regular season. I'm sure I've read hundreds of times that Kane was a better playoff performer than Crosby (or Malkin or Ovechkin) and it was always nonsense.

McDavid has been the best playoff performer in recent years. Which isn't surprising, since he's the best player. Generally the best players are going to be the best players in the playoffs too. Exceptions are rare.

 

[GreatGonzo]

People get confused when thinking about players in the playoffs. Draisaitl has had some interesting playoff results (the series against Calgary where he significantly outscored McDavid despite McDavid outplaying him pretty cleanly was surprising, for example) but anyone worth discussing with already knew that McDavid was a better player than Draisaitl regardless of time of year.

Then again there are people who would regard McDavid as a better player if Draisaitl hadn't gotten injured in the 2024 playoffs.

It’s actually interesting how Draisaitl was being regarded as one of the best playoff performers…ever. And yet we don’t hear(or we just put the blame elsewhere) of him basically falling off a cliff.

I mean, look at last year against the knights. He had 6 goals and 7 points in the series. The problem? He scored all those goals within the first 2 games. The next 4? He had 1 assist and was a -7

Against, Colorado in 2022, they got swept in 4. Draisaitl had a solid game 4 with 4 assist, but before that, he had only 2 assists through the first 3 games and was a -4. This was after having a monstrous series against Calgary where he had 17 points in 5 games.

Even against Dallas, you saw his play take a huge dip. 4 points in 6 games after having 24 points with 8 goals through the first 2 rounds. And then his play in the finals.

I don’t think people understand how important his scoring is to the team, and when the injuries start piling up and his play begins to suffer, you see the team struggle.

 

[lextune]

Well, after reading this thread, and seeing how it turned into a Crosby vs. McDavid discussion, it seems the real debate for most people is can McDavid be the 5th best player, lol (I think he will be, and is already quite close actually), but as for him breaking up the big four. No. I can't see that.

 

[Garbageyuk]

I think he overtakes Howe for 4th when it’s all said and done, if he hasn’t already. He’s put the debate between him and Crosby to rest at this point. He is clearly the better player. This playoffs was the last nail in the coffin on that. The level of play from him this post season was something only seen from Lemieux and Gretzky.

 

[The Panther]

I agree with the above post. I realize I'm seen as having an Edmonton-bias (which I probably do), but I used to cheer on Crosby in the 2008 and 2009 seasons and sporadically thereafter, and I don't think his peak comes anywhere near McDavid's. Like, I already thought c.2017-18 McDavid was at a level above Crosby's best, and by 2021 he was approaching Gretzky/Lemieux territory. I'm actually surprised how many on here think Crosby was at the McDavid level. To my eyes, he simply wasn't.

(Note to Crosby <mod edit: fans>: This is not a diss on Crosby, whom I love.)

 

[daver]

I think he overtakes Howe for 4th when it’s all said and done, if he hasn’t already. He’s put the debate between him and Crosby to rest at this point. He is clearly the better player. This playoffs was the last nail in the coffin on that. The level of play from him this post season was something only seen from Lemieux and Gretzky.

Here is the thing with placing McDavid with Wayne/Mario. You then have to do the same with Draisaitl whose career playoff numbers were matching than McDavid's up the 3rd round this year before he got injured.

And then also place Bouchard with other all-time d-men greats like Coffey based on his career playoff PPG.

Full marks to McDavid for another great three round performance. All things considered, Draisaitl was viewed as being the best Oiler through 2 rounds and a Smythe co-favourite going into the SCF.

McDavid then did not produce enough in the SCF until it was too late. Full marks for winning Game 5 when given the opportunity but then did not come through in Game 7. His SCF performance was satisfactory but ultimately a losing effort; not, IMO, one that cemented his legacy as being a level of play "only seen from Lemieux and Gretzky" based solely on his SCF point totals.

McDavid's 2022 performance through 3 rounds is his best pound for pound performance. Through 3 rounds, Sakic was better in 1996. Crosby, and arguably Malkin, were as good in 2009 (and Malkin adds his SCF performance to this).

We also just saw Kucherov put up a regular season that almost matched McDavid's 2023, with MacKinnon not far behind.

Are they also close to Wayne and Mario?

 

[Offtheboard412]

I agree with the above post. I realize I'm seen as having an Edmonton-bias (which I probably do), but I used to cheer on Crosby in the 2008 and 2009 seasons and sporadically thereafter, and I don't think his peak comes anywhere near McDavid's. Like, I already thought c.2017-18 McDavid was at a level above Crosby's best, and by 2021 he was approaching Gretzky/Lemieux territory. I'm actually surprised how many on here think Crosby was at the McDavid level. To my eyes, he simply wasn't.

(Note to Crosby <mod edit: fans>: This is not a diss on Crosby, whom I love.)

17-18 McDavid was very nearly matched in points per game by Mackinnon that year. I don't see how you could have that year above Crosby in 10/11 ( which was admittedly only a half season) or 12/13 or 13/14. Or really even 09/10 for that matter depending on how strongly you factor goal scoring.

McDavid's 3rd year really wasn't that different from Crosby's 3rd year from a per game standpoint. They both were neck and neck with Mackinnon and Ovechkin in each year respectively. Mackinnon was 1 point off McDavid's pace and Crosby was 1 point off Ovechkin's. Unless I misunderstood you and you were talking about going strictly by your eye test, which is completely subjective and in that case you can disregard this post.

 

[daver]

McDavid has been the best playoff performer in recent years. Which isn't surprising, since he's the best player. Generally the best players are going to be the best players in the playoffs too. Exceptions are rare.

Jagr is an interesting one. He was statistically the highest producer in his peak/prime, most notably with lesser talented teammates as his rivals, Sakic and Forsberg. But when it appeared that he, with Mario in the lineup, was primed to make a Cup run, he disappointed.

Relatively speaking, I think those three are very close when talking about who is the best during their prime, but do you take Jagr over those two for a playoff run?

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Mcdavid is a better player than Crosby in a pure sense. But without a cup he will be ranked behind in an all time list. Just as I have Gretzky as the greatest of all timeml. But Mario to me is the best player to ever step on a sheet of ice

 

[JackSlater]

Jagr is an interesting one. He was statistically the highest producer in his peak/prime, most notably with lesser talented teammates as his rivals, Sakic and Forsberg. But when it appeared that he, with Mario in the lineup, was primed to make a Cup run, he disappointed.

Relatively speaking, I think those three are very close when talking about who is the best during their prime, but do you take Jagr over those two for a playoff run?

I'm high on Jagr as a playoff performer. Life is tough for players on shallow teams in the playoffs, and Jagr during his peak years managed to be elite as a one many army.

 

[WarriorofTime]

McDavid will get his Cup, maybe even multiple. Everyone is so quick to try and write the story when it's only half over at most (probably less). McDavid is so good that he's almost certain to get one. Heck, he nearly got it this year with a pretty lousy goaltender and Darnell Nurse's boat anchor contract in the way. I'm sure the Crosby Crew would hold it against him if he wins one somewhere other than Edmonton, but it's a team game, people forget how fortunate a spot Crosby entered considering the team drafted Malkin the year prior.

 

[Albatros]

that’s a good point. Like, did Crosby suddenly lose his leadership capabilities from 2010-15? Then they add some key pieces to 2 back to back cup wins….is that because Crosby found his way again as their captain? Or was it the team was better…

2010-15 they had the best regular season stretch in franchise history, just didn't go all the way in the playoffs with Bylsma or Johnston. With Sullivan they never won the Metropolitan Division to this day, but they did win two more cups right away.

 

[lextune]

I'm high on Jagr as a playoff performer.

He was obviously way past his prime, but in 2013 with the Bruins Jagr got 1st line minutes, through the entire playoffs, (all the way to the finals; 22 games), and scored exactly zero goals.

It had to be the longest goalless streak, regular season or playoff, of his career (I assume).

It was devastating to our run. If he scores a timely goal or three we probably have another Cup.

 

[JackSlater]

He was obviously way past his prime, but in 2013 with the Bruins Jagr got 1st line minutes, through the entire playoffs, (all the way to the finals; 22 games), and scored exactly zero goals.

It had to be the longest goalless streak, regular season or playoff, of his career (I assume).

It was devastating to our run. If he scores a timely goal or three we probably have another Cup.

I guess I'm somewhat forgiving of poor playoff runs when a guy has reached his 40s.

 

[lextune]

I guess I'm somewhat forgiving of poor playoff runs when a guy has reached his 40s.

Indeed. I did say he was obviously past his prime. ...it just still hurts, lol.

 

[MadLuke]

One way to turn it, Jagr at 40 was still playing top 6 minutes in the playoff on a great team that reached the final not long after winning it all, still getting 10 pts in a run in a very low scoring era, with a strong coaching staff... When Andreychuck did it, people were impress.

 

[JianYang]

McDavid will get his Cup, maybe even multiple. Everyone is so quick to try and write the story when it's only half over at most (probably less). McDavid is so good that he's almost certain to get one. Heck, he nearly got it this year with a pretty lousy goaltender and Darnell Nurse's boat anchor contract in the way. I'm sure the Crosby Crew would hold it against him if he wins one somewhere other than Edmonton, but it's a team game, people forget how fortunate a spot Crosby entered considering the team drafted Malkin the year prior.

You'd think people would pay attention to the fact that gretzky never won a cup after leaving Edmonton, or that Mario didn't win until the 90s when the pens finally stacked up around him.

Could it be because even the best players need a really good supporting cast around them to go all the way?

It's tiresome debating with the "yeah, but he didn't win the cup" crowd. It's a lazy argument on its own.

 

[daver]

I'm high on Jagr as a playoff performer. Life is tough for players on shallow teams in the playoffs, and Jagr during his peak years managed to be elite as a one many army.

In terms of winning? For sure.

In terms of putting up points? One can argue it is easier for superstar offensive talent to put up points on a shallow team given how much emphasis there is for them to score especially when their team is behind and more risks are taken.

Howe had a higher playoff PPG after his peak when he was the clear offensive leader on a less talented Wings team than during his peak.

Jagr's overall body of work places him above Sakic and Forsberg but would you take him over one or both of those players for a playoff run?

In McDavid's case, he doesn't have a high scoring, well rounded C as his main rival; he has another offense-oriented C in MacKinnon and an offense-only winger in Kucherov.

In order for McDavid to "break the Big 4" I think he needs to be clearly in the Top 5 players you would take for a playoff run (save for goalies). IMO, the Big 4 make up the Top 4 of that list.

 

[JackSlater]

In terms of winning? For sure.

In terms of putting up points? One can argue it is easier for superstar offensive talent to put up points on a shallow team given how much emphasis there is for them to score especially when their team is behind and more risks are taken.

Howe had a higher playoff PPG after his peak when he was the clear offensive leader on a less talented Wings team than during his peak.

Jagr's overall body of work places him above Sakic and Forsberg but would you take him over one or both of those players for a playoff run?

In McDavid's case, he doesn't have a high scoring, well rounded C as his main rival; he has another offense-oriented C in MacKinnon and an offense-only winger in Kucherov.

In order for McDavid to "break the Big 4" I think he needs to be clearly in the Top 5 players you would take for a playoff run (save for goalies). IMO, the Big 4 make up the Top 4 of that list.

Yes I think that players on relatively one line teams tend to see their scoring suffer more in the playoffs than other players. I don't have stats behind this, it is just something you notice over time. Playoffs are also a time to really create a gameplan for a team, and planning helps defence generally.

I'd take Jagr over Sakic or Forsberg for a playoff run. He's the better player. I'd also take McDavid over Kucherov or MacKinnon for the exact same reason.

Cases where a player jumps past another player due to playoffs are very rare in my eyes. One example where I am certain of it happening from having watched all of their playoff games is Zetterberg and Datsyuk. There is no question that if I could only have one I would take Zetterberg, since he would be the better performer in the playoffs and give me a better chance at a Stanley Cup. Again these are rare cases though.

 

[JackSlater]

Indeed. I did say he was obviously past his prime. ...it just still hurts, lol.

I enjoy Jagr looking back at his old man years (I suppose he is still in them) for the insights it allows when he craps on the arguments surrounding vastly different eras. Like that interview (Spittin Chiclets I think) where he talks about how he could lead a good team in scoring as old as 44, but he was also clearly not as good as Gretzky and Lemieux.

 

[bobholly39]

In order for McDavid to "break the Big 4" I think he needs to be clearly in the Top 5 players you would take for a playoff run (save for goalies). IMO, the Big 4 make up the Top 4 of that list.

In order for McDavid to break the big 4, he needs a lot of things. He can't have everything though. Orr/Lemieux don't have longevity. Gretzky/Lemieux don't have much defensive play. Howe's peak isn't quite as outworldly as the other 3. etc. So however his career ends up, there's always going to be a way for someone to say at the end "in order to break the big 4, McDavid needed _______ which he doesn't have, so he doesn't make it".

"Clearly in the top 5 players you would take for a playoff run" - that's an intreresting suggestion though. I don't dislike it. Few questions though:

1. Why except goalies? My first question was going to be, are the big 4 the top 4 players you would take for a playoff run first, if you consider goalies? I suspect Patrick Roy maybe breaks it up. Maybe even Hasek?

2. If we do exclude goalies like you want - are the big 4 the top 4 players you take today? They might be - I know Gretzky, Orr & Lemieux would be for me, but I'm a bit less sure about Howe. Beliveau/Richard are quite attractive here.

3. How does McDavid compare? He's been absolutely stellar these past 3 playoff runs. He's literally given peak Gretzky a run for his money in some ways. Would taking peak McDavid for a playoff run not also already rank quite high, whether it be exactly top 5, or really close (like Howe) ?

 

[Sentinel]

I am one of the greatest Hasek proponents on this board and at this point McDavid is about even with him. Hasek had one truly legendary playoff run in a losing effort in 1999 (just like McDavid) and one excellent run crowned with a Cup (2002). Plus the 1998 Olympic Gold. Their RSs are similar: 2 Harts + 6 Vezinas vs. 3 Harts + 5 Art Rosses.

5. Hasek
6. Esposito (2 Harts over Orr + 5 Art Rosses)
7. McDavid
8. Ovechkin (if he beats Gretzky's record)
9. Crosby
10. Hull Sr.
11. Jagr

 

[daver]

In order for McDavid to break the big 4, he needs a lot of things. He can't have everything though. Orr/Lemieux don't have longevity. Gretzky/Lemieux don't have much defensive play. Howe's peak isn't quite as outworldly as the other 3. etc. So however his career ends up, there's always going to be a way for someone to say at the end "in order to break the big 4, McDavid needed _______ which he doesn't have, so he doesn't make it".

"Clearly in the top 5 players you would take for a playoff run" - that's an intreresting suggestion though. I don't dislike it. Few questions though:

1. Why except goalies? My first question was going to be, are the big 4 the top 4 players you would take for a playoff run first, if you consider goalies? I suspect Patrick Roy maybe breaks it up. Maybe even Hasek?

2. If we do exclude goalies like you want - are the big 4 the top 4 players you take today? They might be - I know Gretzky, Orr & Lemieux would be for me, but I'm a bit less sure about Howe. Beliveau/Richard are quite attractive here.

3. How does McDavid compare? He's been absolutely stellar these past 3 playoff runs. He's literally given peak Gretzky a run for his money in some ways. Would taking peak McDavid for a playoff run not also already rank quite high, whether it be exactly top 5, or really close (like Howe) ?

Mario and Orr are in the Big 4 despite a lack of longevity. Howe is in the Big 4 as much for his longevity as he is in for his all around play (Top 3 offensive resume plus defense/physicality).

Answers to your questions:

2. Howe was everything Beliveau was offensively (argubly more) on less talented teams while bringing more than just offense. He has a playoff season resume befitting his regular stature. An argument can be made for Richard/Beliveau but, in a vacuum, I think it has to be Howe.

3. Do you take peak Crosby or peak McDavid for a playoff run? A bit of a tough question as peak Crosby underwhelmed after pre-peak Crosby overwhelmed.