Can Canada realistically go on another 5x Gold Medal Run?

[Peiskos]

It’s very small i’d say. Even if you gave Canada a 50 % chance to win a WJC the odds would be stacked against them 0.5^2=0.125=12.5 %. It’s gonna be a lot tougher winning in Europe. We play big ice. Sweden bring their A team. Stop dreaming.

I don't understand this big ice argument European fans bring up, Canada has won 9 of its 20 world junior golds in Europe, most recently in 2020, furthermore Canada has won all 27 of its World Championships in Europe on large ice.

This bizarre large ice gives Canada struggles myth needs to be put to bed already lol.

 

[OskarOskarius]

I don't understand this big ice argument European fans bring up, Canada has won 9 of its 20 world junior golds in Europe, most recently in 2020, furthermore Canada has won all 27 of its World Championships in Europe on large ice.

This bizarre large ice gives Canada struggles myth needs to be put to bed already lol.

Well what’s the win ratio in NA compared to Europe?

 

[JackSlater]

I don't understand this big ice argument European fans bring up, Canada has won 9 of its 20 world junior golds in Europe, most recently in 2020, furthermore Canada has won all 27 of its World Championships in Europe on large ice.

This bizarre large ice gives Canada struggles myth needs to be put to bed already lol.

We all know that Canada is generally worse on larger ice. That said, since 1982 when Canada started sending actual all star teams to the tournament, Canada has won 9 WJCs in Europe. Next best over the same period is Russia under its various names and Finland with a whopping 4 each. The Canadian players are not just going to see a wider ice surface and forget how to play hockey.

I'd look much more at specific rosters than ice size when making predictions.

 

[Peiskos]

Well what’s the win ratio in NA compared to Europe?

Canada has won 9 world juniors in Europe and 11 in North America that's 45% vs 55% that's pretty damn even, enough to totally squash any idea that Canada struggles on large ice.

Canada has literally won more on large ice than anyone else. Makes no sense to suggest they struggle when you look at the data.

Now if it was more like 3 in Europe and 17 in North America you'd have some sort of argument, but there isn't one here.

 

[EXTRAS]

Is it really a 5-peat if they do it with no Russian team though?

 

[OskarOskarius]

Canada has won 9 world juniors in Europe and 11 in North America that's 45% vs 55% that's pretty damn even, enough to totally squash any idea that Canada struggles on large ice.

Canada has literally won more on large ice than anyone else. Makes no sense to suggest they struggle when you look at the data.

Now if it was more like 3 in Europe and 17 in North America you'd have some sort of argument, but there isn't one here.

Compare Canadas performance in NA
Win/(Win+Lose)
Then compare Canadas performance in Europe
Win/(Win+Lose)

I think you will spot a difference.

We all know that Canada is generally worse on larger ice. That said, since 1982 when Canada started sending actual all star teams to the tournament, Canada has won 9 WJCs in Europe. Next best over the same period is Russia under its various names and Finland with a whopping 4 each. The Canadian players are not just going to see a wider ice surface and forget how to play hockey.

I'd look much more at specific rosters than ice size when making predictions.

Yeah not taking away cred or anything. But if Canada win 5 straight cups it’s because 4 of those cups will be on small ice. But i’m not worried. Sweden A team + home advantage + big ice. We got this in the bag already.

 

[FinPanda]

They have a chance to do it but for hockey's sake it would be best if they don't.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

We need consistent goaltending to bail us out when the roster isn’t up to the task.

Doesn’t look promising.

D'Aigle could be that guy for 2024 and 2025.

 

[Peiskos]

Compare Canadas performance in NA
Win/(Win+Lose)
Then compare Canadas performance in Europe
Win/(Win+Lose)

I think you will spot a difference.

Canada's performance? these are the team records of the 9 World Juniors Canada has won in Europe :

1985 : 5-0-2, 44 gf, 14 ga

1988 : 6-0-1, 37 gf, 16 ga

1990 : 5-1-1, 36 gf, 18 ga

1993 : 6-1-0, 37 gf, 17 ga

1994 : 6-0-1, 39 gf, 20 ga

1997 : 5-0-2, 27 gf, 13 ga

2007 : 6-0-0, 20 gf, 7 ga

2008 : 6-1-0, 23 gf, 10 ga

2020 : 6-1-0, 32 gf, 17 ga

Seems pretty standard to me, no major differences from the goals for and against and team records from the 11 tournament wins in North America.

Debunked.

 

[Peiskos]

Compare Canadas performance in NA
Win/(Win+Lose)
Then compare Canadas performance in Europe
Win/(Win+Lose)

I think you will spot a difference.


Yeah not taking away cred or anything. But if Canada win 5 straight cups it’s because 4 of those cups will be on small ice. But i’m not worried. Sweden A team + home advantage + big ice. We got this in the bag already.

There is overwhelming evidence that Canada wins just as much on large ice as small ice, but keep coping buddy.

 

[ORRFForever]

If Canada won the 2021 final, Canada is looking at potentially 4 straight right now.

View attachment 631339

That is what I predicted in 2000. We were so close.

 

[Peiskos]

Is it really a 5-peat if they do it with no Russian team though?

Do the Soviet Union's consecutive golds back in the day count even though Canada's professionals weren't there?

 

[Smif]

You did not debunked anything. Its a fact that Canada is having a harder time to get gold on the big ice than they have on small ice in NA. I never said Canada is doing bad on big ice in Europe, just that it will be harder.

Finland, Czechia, Slovakia is the favorites. Russia ofc if they also gets back (which is not likely).

You think Czechia and Slovakia are going to be favorites next year?!

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Bedard is only 14 so he can return for quite some time

I’d say there’s a strong chance yea

 

[ORRFForever]

Bedard is only 14 so he can return for quite some time

I’d say there’s a strong chance yea

He looks 14.

 

[1specter]

American hockey has improved leaps and bounds in the last ~15 years to the point where they are churning out talent that matches Canada, and there is also consistently great talent coming out of Sweden, Finland still,while Czechia, Slovakia are also back on the upswing. Then there's Russia, if they get back into the tournament they are basically the same as Finland or Sweden where they're constant threats. There is too much parity now IMO.

 

[canuck2010]

Is it really a 5-peat if they do it with no Russian team though?

Sort of like all of those world championships that the Russians won.

 

[Peiskos]

American hockey has improved leaps and bounds in the last ~15 years to the point where they are churning out talent that matches Canada, and there is also consistently great talent coming out of Sweden, Finland still,while Czechia, Slovakia are also back on the upswing. Then there's Russia, if they get back into the tournament they are basically the same as Finland or Sweden where they're constant threats. There is too much parity now IMO.

Not denying that American hockey has improved but I'm not so sure we can say quite yet that they're churning out talent that matches Canada, the American program has yet to produce a player on the level of a Crosby or McDavid for example.

 

[Mathieukferland]

American hockey has improved leaps and bounds in the last ~15 years to the point where they are churning out talent that matches Canada, and there is also consistently great talent coming out of Sweden, Finland still,while Czechia, Slovakia are also back on the upswing. Then there's Russia, if they get back into the tournament they are basically the same as Finland or Sweden where they're constant threats. There is too much parity now IMO.

American hockey has made great advances during the NTDP era, but I wouldn’t say they’ve matched Canada yet as they’ve failed to produce a generational talent

 

[Beerz]

Depends on the refs

 

[SOLR]

Canada has won 9 world juniors in Europe and 11 in North America that's 45% vs 55% that's pretty damn even, enough to totally squash any idea that Canada struggles on large ice.

Canada has literally won more on large ice than anyone else. Makes no sense to suggest they struggle when you look at the data.

Now if it was more like 3 in Europe and 17 in North America you'd have some sort of argument, but there isn't one here.

What is the win rate in Europe and NA. the absolute number if wins don't matter it's the % of victories per attempt.

 

[EXTRAS]

Sort of like all of those world championships that the Russians won.

I don't disagree

Do the Soviet Union's consecutive golds back in the day count even though Canada's professionals weren't there?

I don't count them, no. Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

[Peiskos]

I don't disagree



I don't count them, no. Two wrongs don't make a right.

Don't think it's a two wrongs type of situation, Russia isn't included in international competition right now for legitimate reasons.

 

[WRC]

Canada has won 9 world juniors in Europe and 11 in North America that's 45% vs 55% that's pretty damn even

I would love Canada to go on another streak, but that's pretty flawed reasoning bud. You haven't taken the number of events in each place into account.
Canada has won 11 of the 22 tourneys played in NA. That's 50%. And won 9 of the 25 elsewhere. 36%. Equal?

 

[Peiskos]

I would love Canada to go on another streak, but that's pretty flawed reasoning bud. You haven't taken the number of events in each place into account.
Canada has won 11 of the 22 tourneys played in NA. That's 50%. And won 9 of the 25 elsewhere. 36%. Equal?

I was just providing the percentages based on the 20 gold medals Canada has, how many of them were won on large ice vs small, not overall tournaments.

It's a moot point though because the argument was that Canada struggles on large ice, it's an irrelevant thing to say because Canada has won on large ice more than anyone else, its odd to use that as some sort of reasoning as to why Canada couldn't pull off such a streak.

Canada struggling on large ice shockingly remains one of the most bizarre myths in international hockey that for seem reason continues to live on, even with all of the countries 27 World Championships and its most recent Olympic Gold coming on large ice, the myth persists.