Can anyone see the Bruins not winning the cup?

[Halakitlikethat]

I think they have to be the favourites but man the playoffs are so much about luck and sometimes even the better team will lose a series

 

[MessierII]

The best regular season team almost never wins.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Of course there's a high chance that the Bruins don't win the Cup, as is the case with any team; even if they were a perfect team (which they're not) there's too much randomness in the NHL playoffs to have that kind of certainty.

That said, if we're gonna talk about how President's Trophy winners don't win the Cup that often, we also need to mention that teams that historically performed similarly to what the Bruins are doing right now did win the Cup often.

Here's the top 10 regular season teams in the NHL (by point %) since the end of WWII:

1- 1977 Canadiens. Won the Cup
2- 1978 Canadiens. Won the Cup
3- 2013 Blackhawks. Won the Cup
4- 1996 Red Wings. Lost in the Conference Finals. Won the Cup the two years after.
5- 1976 Canadiens. Won the Cup
6- 2019 Lightning. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the two years after.
7- 1971 Bruins. Upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the year before and the year after.
8- 1973 Canadiens. Won the Cup
9- 1972 Bruins. Won the Cup
10- 2006 Red Wings. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup two years later.

If the Bruins finish the season at their current pace, they will be second on that list, and that's pretty good company to be in. Hell, even if you decided to level the field by turning all OT/SO wins back into ties, they would still stick on the list (unlike the other post-lockout teams, which would all fall off).

Just saying, winning the President's trophy is one thing, but having the kind of season the Bruins are having right now is another.

 

[Trashpass]

Lol, they're not winning the Cup OP. A lot of fluke wins like how the Panthers got that ridiculous record last year. But the main reason they're not winning the Cup is because they're going to win the President's Trophy. Tampa losing to Columbus, shame on you, another 60+ win team potentially losing like Bruins, shame on me. Not taking them in my bracket.

What in the hell do you consider "fluke wins" how many "fluke wins" do they have?

The whole president trophy thing is ridiculous. They have a 1 out of 16 chance to win so of course it's a lower percentage you compared to the field. You could say the same about any other seed The president trophy winner has still won it more than any other seed so

 

[Aeroforce]

It's not a given.

Carolina gives them fits, especially in Carolina. Toronto is stronger defensively than in the past, and with Vasilevskiy, Tampa can beat anyone 4 out of 7, even Ullmark and the Bruins.

Some of the numbers for Boston look otherworldly; but they've won handily against some sub-par teams. Take away those blowouts and their goal differential looks less intimidating.

They'll be favored but it won't be a great shock of they don't win it all.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I mean, you’d be a fool to bet on Boston instead of the field, no?

This. The number of times the favorite coming out of the regular season actually wins the cup is in the minority.

 

[McGarnagle]

No one is favored against the field of 15. But up against every other slot, the Bruins would be favored.

Carolina could give them a challenge, so could Vegas, Tampa, and yes, even Toronto. They've struggled against Florida this year in the regular season and might draw them in the playoffs. Refs could screw them again, injuries could happen, etc. No guarantees. But they will be and should be favorites against everyone they run into. After the Orlov deal, I know I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't win the cup. But it's the hardest trophy to win, so much luck is required.

 

[CDJ]

We bruins fans see what you’re trying and we’re not gonna play that shit!!!! Nice jinx attempt!!!

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Yes, but can anyone not see Toronto winning the cup? Asking for a friend sub-forum.

 

[Nasti]

I feel like we have this thread every year for the eventual Presidents Trophy winner and every year they don’t win the cup.

 

[ahmon]

I'll be surprised if they won the cup. Even back when they were in the finals against the Blues, I thought their best players Marchand, Bergeron were worn down by the finals - and looked old.

Now a few years older hard to see them going all the way.

 

[BurgoShark]

Of course there's a high chance that the Bruins don't win the Cup, as is the case with any team; even if they were a perfect team (which they're not) there's too much randomness in the NHL playoffs to have that kind of certainty.

That said, if we're gonna talk about how President's Trophy winners don't win the Cup that often, we also need to mention that teams that historically performed similarly to what the Bruins are doing right now did win the Cup often.

Here's the top 10 regular season teams in the NHL (by point %) since the end of WWII:

1- 1977 Canadiens. Won the Cup
2- 1978 Canadiens. Won the Cup
3- 2013 Blackhawks. Won the Cup
4- 1996 Red Wings. Lost in the Conference Finals. Won the Cup the two years after.
5- 1976 Canadiens. Won the Cup
6- 2019 Lightning. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the two years after.
7- 1971 Bruins. Upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the year before and the year after.
8- 1973 Canadiens. Won the Cup
9- 1972 Bruins. Won the Cup
10- 2006 Red Wings. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup two years later.

If the Bruins finish the season at their current pace, they will be second on that list, and that's pretty good company to be in. Hell, even if you decided to level the field by turning all OT/SO wins back into ties, they would still stick on the list (unlike the other post-lockout teams, which would all fall off).

Just saying, winning the President's trophy is one thing, but having the kind of season the Bruins are having right now is another.

Appreciate the effort. Can you do this again but only including teams who had to play through a 16-team playoff format?

 

[lawrence]

they are definitely the favourites this year.

The presidents trophy winning team almost never wins

Presidents trophy-winning teams have the highest percentage of stanley cup wins.

 

[Machinehead]

They're currently riding a .939 team save percentage at even strength and goaltending is nothing more than a random number generator with cool masks, especially in a tournament.

For that reason alone, anyone can lose.

 

[Oddbob]

I almost exclusively don't see them winning the Cup. I mean even if they win, I won't see it!

2019 Tampa Bay Lightning

95-96 Red Wings!

 

[Oddbob]

Of course there's a high chance that the Bruins don't win the Cup, as is the case with any team; even if they were a perfect team (which they're not) there's too much randomness in the NHL playoffs to have that kind of certainty.

That said, if we're gonna talk about how President's Trophy winners don't win the Cup that often, we also need to mention that teams that historically performed similarly to what the Bruins are doing right now did win the Cup often.

Here's the top 10 regular season teams in the NHL (by point %) since the end of WWII:

1- 1977 Canadiens. Won the Cup
2- 1978 Canadiens. Won the Cup
3- 2013 Blackhawks. Won the Cup
4- 1996 Red Wings. Lost in the Conference Finals. Won the Cup the two years after.
5- 1976 Canadiens. Won the Cup
6- 2019 Lightning. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the two years after.
7- 1971 Bruins. Upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the year before and the year after.
8- 1973 Canadiens. Won the Cup
9- 1972 Bruins. Won the Cup
10- 2006 Red Wings. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup two years later.

If the Bruins finish the season at their current pace, they will be second on that list, and that's pretty good company to be in. Hell, even if you decided to level the field by turning all OT/SO wins back into ties, they would still stick on the list (unlike the other post-lockout teams, which would all fall off).

Just saying, winning the President's trophy is one thing, but having the kind of season the Bruins are having right now is another.

To me that was disappointing for sure, but not embarrassing. Yzerman, Datsyuk and a bunch of others were quite banged up in that series so they weren't the same team that won 58 games during the season. The 96 loss though stung much more even if we lost to Colorado who won the Cup that year.

 

[Oddbob]

The Bruins this year are hard to gauge, as Ullmark's play is well above anything he has ever done. Can he keep it up at that level the rest of the way? He also is unproven at playoff time, simply cause he hasn't had the chance to be starter yet. In a 7 game series it doesn't take much going wrong for it all to go wrong.

The pressure is also that much higher when you are the top team, as anyone they face is the heavy underdog, which is why I think so many PT winners don't win it all. That, and the fact that they still only have a 1 in 16 chance to win, so one of the other 15 teams has a much better percentage chance of winning.

 

[Chardo]

Fun fact: the last seven President's Trophy winners failed to get past the second round.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Appreciate the effort. Can you do this again but only including teams who had to play through a 16-team playoff format?

Sure. That does wipe out most of the previous list, who mostly played in a 3-round format. Top regular seasons since 1980 (by point %):

1- 2013 Blackhawks. Won the Cup
2- 1996 Red Wings. Lost in the Conference Finals. Won the Cup the two years after.
3- 2019 Lightning. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the two years after.
4- 2006 Red Wings. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup two years later.
5- 2013 Penguins. Lost in the Conference Finals.
6- 2022 Panthers. Lost in 2nd round.
7- 1984 Oilers. Won the Cup
8- 1986 Oilers. Lost in 2nd round
9- 2010 Capitals. Halak-ed in the 1st round.
10- 1982 Islanders. Won the Cup

For reference, the Bruins current pace would rank 1st on that list.

Like I mentioned in my previous post, OT/SO wins does give a major advantage to post-lockout teams here (and to a lesser degree, to post-83 teams). If we turn them all back into ties, and assuming I didn't f***up this simple math, the list becomes something like this:

1- 1996 Red Wings. Lost in the Conference Finals. Won the Cup the two years after.
2- 1982 Islanders. Won the Cup
3- 1995 Red Wings. Lost in Finals
4- 1980 Flyers. Lost in Finals
5- 1984 Oilers. Won the Cup
6- 2006 Red Wings. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup two years later.
7- 1986 Oilers. Lost in 2nd round
8- 1989 Canadiens. Lost in Finals
9- 2019 Lightning. Embarrassingly upset in the 1st round. Won the Cup the two years after.
10-1989 Flames. Won the Cup

The Bruins current pace, adjusted for no OT/SO, would rank 2nd on that list.

This makes me think A) that regular season dominance seemed to correlate a bit better with playoff success before the cap era, which makes sense since the cap was partly to enforce parity. As a result of that parity, recent President trophy teams are closer to their competition than they look, hence more upsets and a lower chance at the Cup: the "President's trophy curse". B) that the season the Bruins are putting together so far is pretty exceptional, both in the context of the cap era and in a wider scope of NHL history. That doesn't mean they'll win the Cup, but I don't think it makes sense to assume they'll just have similar results as other recent regular seasons champions.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Winning the Stanley Cup is one of the hardest things to do in sports.

A lot of things have to go right, it's not just about having the best team or regular season record. Injuries, momentum, and goalie performance are brutal in a 7-game series.

This has been proven again and again. But the Bruins are an excellent team and have positioned themselves nicely to go on a healthy run in the playoffs.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

To me that was disappointing for sure, but not embarrassing. Yzerman, Datsyuk and a bunch of others were quite banged up in that series so they weren't the same team that won 58 games during the season. The 96 loss though stung much more even if we lost to Colorado who won the Cup that year.

Fair. That Oilers team did pretty much roll through the West without too much trouble; the Wings probably gave em their toughest fight. I guess in context it wasn't that bad, though a loss against an 8 seed is always a pretty underwhelming result.

 

[Necrobutcher]

Lots of pressure on Boston to go deep in the POs. Anything short of a cup final appearance should be looked at as a complete failure

Can't really agree cause the east is so goddamn strong.

 

[BruinLVGA]

Anti jinx ACTIVATED.

 

[Leaf Fans]

The been the best team all year, and have only gotten better. Any thing can happen.

 

[bobbyking]

healthy avsTampa