Value of: Calgary Contracts (Gaudreau, Tkachuk etc)

[Arthur Morgan]

I love how Calgary fans think it's gonna be a breeze to get rid or lucic and monohan.

shouldnt be too tough they just have to include decent pieces

 

[Bank Shot]

In that case they are only paying $875k in actual dollars for Lucic, which is a bargain. Lucic brings a lot to the table, his cap hit is just too high. Without the consideration of cap I'd love to have him on the team.

He gets 60% offensive zone starts and has 2 points in his last 25 games.

He doesn't bring anything besides hitting and fighting.

 

[Bank Shot]

Marner is not a comparable to anyone, he is clearly overpaid and this is common knowledge. If you can provide a single reason why Tkachuk should be paid more than the 2 time defending cup 1C in Point (who took a nearly identical contract after ELC) then sure.

Panarin was paid as a UFA on a 7 year deal with a new team before the flat cap, if Gaudreau resigns with Calgary and on an 8 year deal he certainly isn't getting more than Barkov.

How is Hyman a comparable? He was a UFA, it always cost extra to sign a UFA from a different team.
Mangiapane's comparables are Bjorkstrand and Teravainen.

Kylington comparison is fine, he hasn't proven enough to get a long term deal and frankly shouldn't want one while escrow is still high. 1 year prove it deal works for both parties as it keeps him on the roster for cheap while staying an RFA after, and gives him a chance to prove he's worth the investment

Tkachuk shouldn't have been paid more than Point on their second contracts, but he was. Point had 92 points to Tkachuk's 77 the season leading up to his $6.75 vs $7 for Tkachuk.

Just because Point leaves money on the table, doesn't mean Tkachuk has to as well. That's not how it works.

At this point Tkachuk's RFA status doesn't mean much. With one year remaining he'll get paid like a UFA. If he goes to arbitration, he will get well rewarded. The last time a star went to arbitration was Shea Weber and he was made the highest paid defenceman in the league.

I mean you can point at two sweetheart deals and declare that Tkachuk and Gaudreau shouldn't get more than that, but its not up to anyone except Gaudreau and Tkachuk. They hold all the cards because if Calgary won't pay them, someone else will.

 

[blankall]

He gets 60% offensive zone starts and has 2 points in his last 25 games.

He doesn't bring anything besides hitting and fighting.

And he brings those things so well. Great locker room guy. He was solid on the #2 pp too, but the Flames team has gotten too deep to give him many opportunities there.

Would love him on the team at half his cap hit.

 

[zar]

Marner is not a comparable to anyone, he is clearly overpaid and this is common knowledge. If you can provide a single reason why Tkachuk should be paid more than the 2 time defending cup 1C in Point (who took a nearly identical contract after ELC) then sure.

Panarin was paid as a UFA on a 7 year deal with a new team before the flat cap, if Gaudreau resigns with Calgary and on an 8 year deal he certainly isn't getting more than Barkov.

How is Hyman a comparable? He was a UFA, it always cost extra to sign a UFA from a different team.
Mangiapane's comparables are Bjorkstrand and Teravainen.

Kylington comparison is fine, he hasn't proven enough to get a long term deal and frankly shouldn't want one while escrow is still high. 1 year prove it deal works for both parties as it keeps him on the roster for cheap while staying an RFA after, and gives him a chance to prove he's worth the investment

Tkachuk - Point plays on a team with no state income taxes and Calgary isn't in Florida for all the other reasons. For Point to net out the same income in Calgary as he does in Florida, the gross salary has to be $11m. Tkachuks have a reputation when it comes to contract negotiations... especially when you get that feeling that Matt Tkachuk would rather play in the US. I am not rubbing this in Flames fans faces when I say this... the Oilers have the same issues. Personally, I don't see McDavid or Draisatil extending in Edmonton either - for the same reasons I stated above.

Gaudreau - See same explanation as stated above. Gross salary has to be at $11.5m AAV for Johnny to net the same as Barkov. I realize that Panarin was paid as an UFA on a 7 year deal with a new team... as you have just posted (re: Hyman) you typically have to pay a bit more to make up for that loss of a year that the incumbent team has.

Mangiapane - yup, I can agree with Bjorkstrand and Teravainen as comparables but then the contract length is 5 years, not the 8 I was proposing. $27.5m/5y ($5.5m AAV) is fair.

 

[zar]

How did TB give Point cups? He was a core player to their success in both runs. Tax is a troll answer that people use as excuse to hate on Tampa. Panthers have the exact same tax but Bob didn't take a discount to go there

If you can say Marner's contract was a terrible comparison for Tkachuk because everyone knows that was a terrible overpayment... then I would point out the same for Bobrovsky's contract being a mute argument for the same reasons.

Anyone who thinks the obvious advantages that the no state income taxes have is irrelevant, when comparing contracts and UFA landing spots, are clueless as to how big money works. Businesses shift entire operations to lower their tax rates, take advantage of grants, etc.

 

[Nanuuk]

Without buying out or trading Monahan or Lucic, the Flames can resign all the players they might want to (excluding Zadorov).

A lot won't think these salaries are realistic, but it all depends how they are structured.

Gaudreau 10.0 x 8 years (12.0, 12.0, 13.5, 11.5, 10,8, 7, 6) $80 million contract
Tkachuck 9.5 x 8 years (10, 11, 11, 10, 9, 7, 7, 6, 5) $76 million contract
Mangiapane 3.2 X 2 years (3.2, 3.2)
Gudbranson 2.0 x 3 years (2, 2, 2)
Kylington 3.5 X 2 years (3.5, 3.5)

By my calculations this would leave the Flames with about $4.2M in cap space in 2022-23 for five forward positions and one defenceman.

This is based on CapFriendly's 2022-23 roster that excludes UFA/RFA salaries, but includes current roster players 2022-23 salaries (such as Ruzicka, Mackey, and Valimaki) and totals 50,112.

Adding in the contracts that I've listed to arrive at a lower cap hit (again it is all how they are structured) and apply against the league cap limit in 2022-23 of $82.5M. Whether the players demand more remains to be seen, but both Gaudreau and Tkachuk are valuable assets and need to be locked up.

Personally, I think that depending on how this season finishes, we just might see Lucic retire next year (after his bonus is paid out) and depending on whether Monahan can recover you might see him retire as well.

 

[Mersss]

Without buying out or trading Monahan or Lucic, the Flames can resign all the players they might want to (excluding Zadorov).

A lot won't think these salaries are realistic, but it all depends how they are structured.

Gaudreau 10.0 x 8 years (12.0, 12.0, 13.5, 11.5, 10,8, 7, 6) $80 million contract
Tkachuck 9.5 x 8 years (10, 11, 11, 10, 9, 7, 7, 6, 5) $76 million contract
Mangiapane 3.2 X 2 years (3.2, 3.2)
Gudbranson 2.0 x 3 years (2, 2, 2)
Kylington 3.5 X 2 years (3.5, 3.5)

By my calculations this would leave the Flames with about $4.2M in cap space in 2022-23 for five forward positions and one defenceman.

This is based on CapFriendly's 2022-23 roster that excludes UFA/RFA salaries, but includes current roster players 2022-23 salaries (such as Ruzicka, Mackey, and Valimaki) and totals 50,112.

Adding in the contracts that I've listed to arrive at a lower cap hit (again it is all how they are structured) and apply against the league cap limit in 2022-23 of $82.5M. Whether the players demand more remains to be seen, but both Gaudreau and Tkachuk are valuable assets and need to be locked up.

Personally, I think that depending on how this season finishes, we just might see Lucic retire next year (after his bonus is paid out) and depending on whether Monahan can recover you might see him retire as well.

Gaudreau has next to no reason to not get at least 11M$, see Panarin.

And, seeing his little bro just signe for 8.5, and he produces at practically double his offensive output, why would MT take only 1 M$ more?

Same for Mangi... Lots of worse player than him are making 5M$+, he's not taking a 2.5M$ discount for sure

 

[DJJones]

Gaudreau has next to no reason to not get at least 11M$, see Panarin.

And, seeing his little bro just signe for 8.5, and he produces at practically double his offensive output, why would MT take only 1 M$ more?

Same for Mangi... Lots of worse player than him are making 5M$+, he's not taking a 2.5M$ discount for sure

Who the hell is going to give Gaudreau 11 milllion? Certainly won't be Calgary.

Unless he wins a Conn Smythe he's under 10 or gone.

 

[Some Other Flame]

Flames have to find a way to move Monahan, Lucic and one of Valimaki or Dube. If they have to pay to do so then so be it.

With those players off the books, they'll have enough to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Kylington and flesh out the rest of the roster.

 

[Nanuuk]

Gaudreau has next to no reason to not get at least 11M$, see Panarin.

And, seeing his little bro just signe for 8.5, and he produces at practically double his offensive output, why would MT take only 1 M$ more?

Same for Mangi... Lots of worse player than him are making 5M$+, he's not taking a 2.5M$ discount for sure

An $81.5M vs an $80M contract. I think Johnny would leave a little on the table, because he likes the situation he has in Calgary. He gets his loyalty from his family and despite repeated assertions from the internet crowd, that matters to him. And if you talk to any Calgary player, they're a tight bunch. Made even tighter by the social aspect with Flames families and living in Calgary.

Brady Tkachuk's salary is scaled and hits is peak in 2023-24 at $10.4M. Matthew would start collecting his big pay cheques earlier (time value of money). Mathew's contract would be $76M, Brady's $57M. Could Matthew demand more? Perhaps, but if it did he'd be outbound, because first priority is Gaudreau.

Mangiapane will not earn a $5M contract AAV on the basis on a single 30 goal season. Replicate it kid and we'll talk money. He certainly won't get paid more than Elias Lindholm.

Same could be said for Kylington, although I have a high confidence that he's going to be a star in this league. If the Flames sign him to really big money he's going to have to take Hanifin's job away from him.

All in all, there is a way for the Flames to keep the band together if they want to.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

An $81.5M vs an $80M contract. I think Johnny would leave a little on the table, because he likes the situation he has in Calgary. He gets his loyalty from his family and despite repeated assertions from the internet crowd, that matters to him. And if you talk to any Calgary player, they're a tight bunch. Made even tighter by the social aspect with Flames families and living in Calgary.

Brady Tkachuk's salary is scaled and hits is peak in 2023-24 at $10.4M. Matthew would start collecting his big pay cheques earlier (time value of money). Mathew's contract would be $76M, Brady's $57M. Could Matthew demand more? Perhaps, but if it did he'd be outbound, because first priority is Gaudreau.

Mangiapane will not earn a $5M contract AAV on the basis on a single 30 goal season. Replicate it kid and we'll talk money. He certainly won't get paid more than Elias Lindholm.

Same could be said for Kylington, although I have a high confidence that he's going to be a star in this league. If the Flames sign him to really big money he's going to have to take Hanifin's job away from him.

All in all, there is a way for the Flames to keep the band together if they want to.

I strongly disagree with your breakdown of Mangiapane. He should be paid around 5-5.5M because that is the effect he has on this team. Not just as a 30 goal scorer but as an excellent 2-way power forward. Comparing him to Lindholm's deal makes no sense as his career high when he signed that was 11 goals and 45 points.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Tkachuk shouldn't have been paid more than Point on their second contracts, but he was. Point had 92 points to Tkachuk's 77 the season leading up to his $6.75 vs $7 for Tkachuk.

Just because Point leaves money on the table, doesn't mean Tkachuk has to as well. That's not how it works.

At this point Tkachuk's RFA status doesn't mean much. With one year remaining he'll get paid like a UFA. If he goes to arbitration, he will get well rewarded. The last time a star went to arbitration was Shea Weber and he was made the highest paid defenceman in the league.

I mean you can point at two sweetheart deals and declare that Tkachuk and Gaudreau shouldn't get more than that, but its not up to anyone except Gaudreau and Tkachuk. They hold all the cards because if Calgary won't pay them, someone else will.

I think that's a little skewed by linemate quality. The year Point had 92 points his linemate Kucherov had 128. On the other hand Tkachuk was the highest producing player on his line with 77 points and the 2nd highest was Backlund with 47.

You are kind of arguing 2 POV's here and trying to make them the same argument. If Tkachuk wants a 1 year deal to jump ship asap (very unlikely) he can technically force the hand of Calgary to do so and get paid to. But if he wants to sign a long term deal (more likely because the team is very close knit) then more often than not players will "leave money on the table" so to speak to make it work. End of the day players don't give a shit about cap hits though so if Calgary offers a long term contract with nice clauses that also let him have his highest payments during the time right after Escrow is expected to go down he would probably take it.

As for Gaudreau, where did I point at a sweetheart deal? Barkov was given the same contract as Eichel, a player he is compared very often to in terms of talent. You underestimate the effect that the 8th year has in negotiations. Look at Landeskog who was reportedly asking for 9M on the market, look at what Hertl just got, look at what Zibanejad who was reported to want 10M on the market. Sure if Gaudreau goes to the market he may get paid 77M by someone but why not take a 76M deal to stay in Calgary with the 8th year?

 

[Bank Shot]

I think that's a little skewed by linemate quality. The year Point had 92 points his linemate Kucherov had 128. On the other hand Tkachuk was the highest producing player on his line with 77 points and the 2nd highest was Backlund with 47.

You are kind of arguing 2 POV's here and trying to make them the same argument. If Tkachuk wants a 1 year deal to jump ship asap (very unlikely) he can technically force the hand of Calgary to do so and get paid to. But if he wants to sign a long term deal (more likely because the team is very close knit) then more often than not players will "leave money on the table" so to speak to make it work. End of the day players don't give a shit about cap hits though so if Calgary offers a long term contract with nice clauses that also let him have his highest payments during the time right after Escrow is expected to go down he would probably take it.

Some players will leave money on the table, but what about Tkachuk's past words and actions make you believe that he will?

 

[5 14 6 1]

Who the hell is going to give Gaudreau 11 milllion? Certainly won't be Calgary.

Unless he wins a Conn Smythe he's under 10 or gone.

Hart Trophy Finalist, 100+ points, Dominant ES, +53. You have to pay those guys.

The number has to start with at least a 10 imo or the agent has failed.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Something people are forgetting here is that Treliving may be the best RFA negotiator in the league. He seriously has so many of the our top of the roster on sweet heart deals currently.

Gaudreau at 6.75M
Lindholm at 4.85M
Tkachuk at 7M
Hanifin at 4.95M
Anderson at 4.55M

That’s our entire top line and top pair, all who were locked up long term for far less than they deserve. Mangiapane and Kylington will come in a lot cheaper than everyone here is expecting.

Also everyone points to Tkachuk’s option to take his 9M 1 year deal and run, but that has relatively turned into an extremely bad move for Tkachuk financially. His play has earned him a bit over 9M long term, and taking that deal could cost him millions in the long run if his production dips after his career year this year. He would be leaving money on the table by accepting his Q.O. Even just for next season, and he’d be running the risk of losing millions a year on his next contract if Calgary regresses next season. Even if he does take his one year deal, Calgary has loads of cap space after next season with 12.75 million coming off the books with only a 2 4th liners and a backup goalie to replace. They can throw whatever they want at him next season.

Gaudreau at 10.25-10.5M for 8 years
Tkachuk at 9.25M for 6 years (lines him up for one more large contract)
Mangiapane at 4.5 for 4 years
Kylington at 2M for 1-2 years

If you need extra space package Lucic with Valimaki to Seattle for future considerations. That’s an extra 6.8 million, and offers Seattle a former first round pick who just has no opportunity on the Flames.
LTIR Monahan so he can finally fully heal works just as easily.

 

[DJJones]

Hart Trophy Finalist, 100+ points, Dominant ES, +53. You have to pay those guys.

The number has to start with at least a 10 imo or the agent has failed.

Sure he'll look for that. Another team might give it to him

 

[PullHard]

If Detroit trades for both Monahan and Lucic, what would Calgary fans think that deal would look like?

I'd also be curious about this, I think it could work out for both clubs

 

[McVespa99]

Gaudreau - UFA - 9.5/year
Tkachuk - RFA - 9/year
Kylington - RFA - 4/year
Mangiapane - RFA - 5.5/year

Just my guesses off the top of my head. Tkachuk will hold out for a huge payout.

I dont see an scenerio where Tkachuk takes less than JG or any other player on his team. Tkachuks get paaaaid

 

[Double Dion]

The valuations for Tkachuk and Gaudreau seem wildly optimistic.

Brady Tkachuk just signed for $8.3 coming off 36 points in 56 games. The Tkachuk family and Matthew himself through his past actions and words to the media have shown that they aren't willing to leave a single dollar on the table.

Tkachuk is currently sitting 7th in league scoring. That's higher than guys like Marner (10.9), Matthews (11.6) , and Panarin(11.6) when they signed their contracts.

I think its very likely Matthew secures himself something that starts with an 11.

Gaudreau on the other hand has been quiet about contracts, but he wasn't an easy sign on his last deal either. He's sitting 4th in scoring. Maybe people will try to use Barkov as the comp but keep in mind that Barkov at $10 in Florida will take home an extra $1 million after tax each season compared to a $10 million salary in Calgary.

I think Gaudreau starts with an $11 as well, if he takes a discount I think he'll be at least $10.5 million.

If the Flames sign both of these players, Mangiapane and Kylington are likely gone.

I guess I don't value players purely on a career season where scoring has been the highest league wide since the mids 90s.

I tend to value players based on weighted averages over 3 years. Tkachuk is also an RFA and the next time Treliving overpays an RFA will be the first time.

I also think Tkachuk is a 75 point player absent Gaudreau. What 75 point winger makes 10 or 11 million dollars?

 

[Double Dion]

I strongly disagree with your breakdown of Mangiapane. He should be paid around 5-5.5M because that is the effect he has on this team. Not just as a 30 goal scorer but as an excellent 2-way power forward. Comparing him to Lindholm's deal makes no sense as his career high when he signed that was 11 goals and 45 points.

I agree with your premise on what Mangiapane should be making. But in no universe is he remotely similar to a power forward. He's a top 6, 2 way winger.

 

[Double Dion]

Some players will leave money on the table, but what about Tkachuk's past words and actions make you believe that he will?

I actually agree with you here. I don't think Tkachuk will leave money on the table. I do think Gaudreau will though. I would strongly consider trading him if he won't. I don't think he's worth more than 9M most seasons, but his value has never been higher than it is right now.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Gaudreau is getting 10.5 million
Tkachuk will get no less then 9.5
Mangiapane will get 5.25
Kylington will get 3 mill
28.25 mill total

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Some players will leave money on the table, but what about Tkachuk's past words and actions make you believe that he will?

He literally left money on the table in his last deal so the team could stay together...

What "words" are you referring to?

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I agree with your premise on what Mangiapane should be making. But in no universe is he remotely similar to a power forward. He's a top 6, 2 way winger.

His playstyle is over a power forward despite his size. He's a grinder who will battle in the corners and win puck battles. He should be paid like similar players to him in Bjorkstrand and Teravainen