All right
@BB88 I watched about 15 minutes of footage I could find so far. I'm betting there's more and it doesn't comprise full game watches the way a pro scout would but here's my takeaway so far. I wouldn't say that Smith exactly fits the mold as a Cooley or Zegras clone but there's definitely the imprint of a player in the NTDP program that encourages creativity, experimentation and puck skill. If there's an NTDP comparable, it's Zegras.
Where Zegras tries all kinds of flashy moves with how he distributes, retains, and fires the puck, he stick handles (and this applies to his NTDP play from how I remember it) much quicker, tighter, and with a more natural flow. Smith's signature move is a borderline obsession with wide stickhandle dekes between left and right right or from a toe drag to his opposite side. But what I noticed is, Smith seems to uniformly start with pretty ordinary puck controlling as he moves through the offensive zone until he's within range of a defender. Then he slows down almost to a halt as he performs a very deliberate and very wide stick handle. What jumped out to me immediately is this may work just fine against the NTDP's opponents (who, from what I saw, often ended up just puck watching or going for reaching poke checks where they don't have the distance or time to execute the defensive play) but it's not going to fly nearly as often in the NHL where there's less time and space and higher defensive pressure. Smith really needs to rethink his puck handling approach if he wants to avoid persistent stick checks and stick lifts. And it wouldn't hurt if he could develop out of the need to slow down before a deke attempt. When you're looking at skill guys in the NHL they typically pull off their maneuvers at a maintained speed and with a lot more natural flow. When I watch Smith attempt his moves it looks like he really needs to think harder about what he's doing. For a guy obsessed with dangling, I view this as an area that will need improvement going forward
It's not all bad though. Don't get me wrong. The kid clearly has very high IQ and superb vision. He'll benefit from the versatility of being perfectly willing to make a smart set up pass just as often as he's willing shoot it for his goal count. He seems to have a good sense for when the situation calls for a pass over a shot and vis versa. His shot seems to be good. I don't know that I'd say he has the most dangerous release in terms of speed and strength but he looks to be able to pop off a wrist or snap shot from multiple release points which is a good sign for his future as an offensive threat.
Turning back to the negatives though, it does seem like he's prone to turnovers as he's often taking time to experiment different potentially flashy plays which I think tends to plague USNTDP graduates to different degrees (I go back to the Zegras comparison because while he is capable of making dazzling plays, for every one that succeeds there's four that don't at all). One of the videos I watched had an advanced stats breakdown and his pass attempt rate to successful
pass conversion is pretty low compared to his peers.
Another thing I noticed is in none of the footage I found did I ever see Smith engaging along the boards or using his body to play defense. Didn't see much by ways of defense at all. Granted, I'm missing a lot of footage because I'm just working with what is available to me but based on the reports I've read, it seems like his involvement on the defensive side of the game is pretty lacking. Oppose this to someone like Fantilli who I saw plenty of examples of him actively engaged in forechecking with smart stick lifts and being unafraid to battle along the boards, I think this is something Smith will need to work on.
In a nutshell if we're looking at whether the big 4 should actually be a big 5 inclusive of Smith, I think there's no question that Smith will be a good pick for whoever ends up with him. Do I think he's on the level to compete with Fantilli, Carlsson, and Michkov? No. I know full well the USNTDP has churned out a lot of NHL talent lately and Cooley is poised to join that group of young stars. I'm not saying he can't be in the same echelon as the Zegras', Caufield, Boldy, Cooley group or better but I think when you're comparing to the big next three after Bedard you have two guys that were superb in adult leagues and one guy that led NCAA in scoring as an 18 year old, which is Smith's next stop after the draft. While Smith is clearly dominant in NTDP competition, he strikes me as the kind of guy who leverages his strengths and flaws to feast on high schoolers who just aren't up to snuff defensively. While I don't agree that he lacks compete, I don't think he has the compete level of the "next big 3" and certainly nowhere near the compete level of Bedard. It's more of a question of pace given the quality of competition.
Smith is able to thrive because he doesn't have defenders challenging his space and/or employing sufficiently challenging stick work to limit Smith's options. But I don't think his pace is where it needs to be to really excel when the quality of competition ramps up. I'm not ruling out his ability to adapt his playstyle against tougher competition and he seems to be doing more than fine at the WJC U18. It's just that personally, as I'm watching him I think he has to adapt more about his game to maintain the kind of skill based, dangle-focused hockey he's naturally inclined to play and his execution level when it comes to passing definitely needs work. The objective numbers bear that out.
Again, I'm not a pro scout. And I'm not discounting that Smith could figure out what it takes to thrive in the NHL. But as I've watched a handful of example clips, I'm of the opinion that he needs to work on a fair number of elements in his game to get there. Just my non-professional, mostly uninterested view as a fan of a team that's probably not going to draft him. I don't think people who have him outside the top 10 are being fair to Smith but at the same time, if Anaheim picked him at 3rd overall instead of Fantilli or Carlsson, I'd be pretty upset.
