You shouldn't hold it against Perreault that he plays with a likely top 5 pick. This type of thinking is what leads to, or contributes to, someone like Jimmy Snuggerud going 10 spots lower than he should have.
You mention stat watching, but Perreault makes high level plays with the puck and makes Smith a better player too. It is far from a situation where Perreault is leeching points from his linemates. Even if he can't drive an NHL line, which I wouldn't say with 100% certainty, having the ability to mesh with high end players is an asset within itself.
You compare Perrault to Stenberg, but Stenberg's been attached to the hip of Edstrom all year who takes care of the primary defensive responsibilities. Stenberg had a good U18 tournament, but I've seen games of his J20 where he does nothing for 30 minutes then just gets one grade A and it's in the back of the net. He certainly has a lethal shot and can bury, but to act like Stenberg's dominating play at all times is something I can't agree with. Easier for Perreault to rack up points when you play on a stacked team, but Frolunda was a 1st place team too in J20.
Also disagree on Drag, but that's a whole other argument. His concerns are very real IMO, and not something to just shrug off.
As for Drag, like I said, managers will excuse some faults to overdraft a dman. Always do. That’s why you always see so many dmen over-drafted.
He has a lot of Jared McIssac in him. For me, always solid picks in mid to late 2nd, into the 3rd round. He will be an NHL player. Might not be for 4-5 years, but he has the tools. Just don’t think he did himself any help in the tournament. He can go anywhere from 15-45. He’s very bland. Does everything well but nothing great.
A team like Pittsburgh at 14th, who’s weakness is dmen in their system, may convince themselves they can develop him to be great at 2-3 things. If teams don’t believe that, he’ll be just like McIssac and drop to around 40th. They know he’ll play 200+ NHL games, but likely won’t start until he’s 23-25, and only be a good, solid role player.
This year, we probably won’t see these “Safe Picks” until Round 3, instead of Round 2. Drag is RH though, so I can’t see him dropping to the 3rd Round. I can’t see him getting past where Detroit has the 3 picks in a row around 40th.
As for GP, like I said, I don’t wanna sound like I’m ripping on him. He’s a very talented and skilled kid. The comparison I made to Stenberg was based on two things. Position and ability to carry play. Two major things deciding 1st Round picks. Especially in this draft where we have deeper NHL skills.
It’s just the way things are though... GP is a winger, he’s not big, his frame questions if he will ever be able to gain the core strength needed, he doesn’t carry a line, and he does get pushed around some by his own peer group.
So when managers are sitting at 20 let’s say, making every excuse in the books (in their own mind) to draft a dman or pivot, it’s smaller wingers who suffer, and drop. It won’t be Barlow, Wood or Honzek who drop. It will be the 150-160 pound wingers. If I’m drafting at 20 and need wingers badly in my system, and it’s between Wood and GP, I’m taking Wood. Most teams would too. They know Wood will 100% play over 200 NHL games. We honestly don’t know if GP will ever play in the NHL. He should but we don’t know. His measurements, especially his calf and thigh measurements, will be huge for teams deciding if they’d take him in the 1st Round.
Look at Berggren a few years ago. It’s why he fell to the 2nd. Very skilled but smaller. He was lanky for his size like GP. He’s now an NHL wing because he gained that core strength. To the point he’s a truck out there in the corners. Even at his size. But he did drop because of this.
It’s why I always preach against stat watchers. Not only are stats very misleading on how a player will translate to the NHL, or even the AHL, they’re still only 17-18 years old. Another fact a lot of fans seem to forget. 90% of the players drafted every year, won’t be that same player come 22-24 years old.
If you go back, I don’t know, about 15 years, look at Tyler Maxwell. As it was my last year, he would’ve been 91’ birth year I’m pretty certain. So 2009 draft I believe…... Lots of GP in Tyler. Very similar player. Tyler was never even drafted, and he was a little bigger. Didn’t have the same wheels but very similar game. Tyler went to LA and Minnesota camps but never whiffed an ELC. Last I seen he was playing in Switzerland I think.
So teams make excuses not to draft small framed players. Maxwell tried everything imaginable to gain strength but just couldn’t. Just look at what type of players are in, and coming soon to the Atlantic Division right now. I can’t see any of those teams taking GP in the 1st Round. If they take a smaller player in the first round, that kid will have that core strength already, or already be gaining it over the last year. That division is going to be big, fast and strong for the next ten years.
I’ll say again. I’m not ripping him. This is what happens though. He’s not a Caulfield. His frame says “be careful.” Much like it does with the one Russian dman, who likely drops too. Where in comparison, a kid like ASP already has good core strength, so his size isn’t such a big concern. Even as a dman.
I’ll stand by saying, he is still a likely 1st Rounder. Just thinks it’ll be closer to 25OA than 10OA, and he won’t be on a lot of team’s draft boards as a 1st rounder. So nobody should be surprised at all, if he drops to 35-45th overall.
I’m all for admitting being wrong about a player. Wouldn’t be the first time, but this is how things work. The difference between a skilled player drafted 15th-32nd overall, and players usually drafted in the 2nd or even 3rd round, are these things I mentioned. Ability to carry a line, position, size/strength, inside/outside player, and a couple other things. Unfortunately for Gabe, he doesn’t win out on those subjects.
