C Shane Wright - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 3

[SlafySZN]

More anonymous "scouts" totally not people Pronman makes up to sell a narrative.

Here goes the argument of ‘’they’re anonymous so it must be fake scouts’’ narrative…

 

[Legionnaire11]

then it's a very superficial and essentially useless comparison to make.

No. Style comparisons have been around since the dawn of scouting. It's extremely easy to understand that Player X plays a similar style of game to Player Y, while that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be as effective at playing that style.

I mean this in a sincerely helpful way, but if you honestly don't understand style comparisons, I would suggest doing a lot more reading about prospects/scouting and a lot less talking about it until you have a better understanding of basic concepts like this.

 

[93LEAFS]

No. Style comparisons have been around since the dawn of scouting. It's extremely easy to understand that Player X plays a similar style of game to Player Y, while that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be as effective at playing that style.

I really hate putting people down, but if you honestly don't understand style comparisons, I would suggest doing a lot more reading about prospects/scouting and a lot less talking about it until you have a better understanding of basic concepts like this.

No, they are superficial and dumbed down to make for easy reading in prospect guides or for a 2 minute tv hit after a guy is drafted.

My point was, if Wright plays stylistically like Bergeron, then it would imply he has a high-compete level, and a very strong reading of the game defensively. Because those are essential parts of the make up of Bergeron's "style." It's like when people said the same crap to me about Laine being stylistically to Lemeiux, just ignoring his passing, skating, and close puck control were nowhere close to make it stylistically relevant, and those were exposed at the NHL level.

Certain high-end traits are essential parts of players style especially when you are choosing among the 1000s of active and prior NHLers. Wright simply hasn't shown the compete for the stylistic comparison to be relevant this year.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I love stylistic comparisons.

Galchenyuk was compared to Kopitar, Toews and Hossa.

Kotkaniemi was compared to Barkov and Getzlaf.

 

[93LEAFS]

I love stylistic comparisons.

Galchenyuk was compared to Kopitar, Toews and Hossa.

Kotkaniemi was compared to Barkov and Getzlaf.

Marner and W. Nylander on back to back years were compared stylistically to Patrick Kane.

Generally, stylistic comparisons are a disaster even when the player hits close to their ceiling. Matthews and Draisaitl are both amazing players but Matthews doesn't play that much like Toews, and Draisaitl doesn't play much like Kopitar. They are designed for quick 2 minute hits at the draft and lack significant nuance.

 

[lomiller1]

I think more people have issues with the potential Selke winner/Bergeron that gets attached to it by some posters. A 70-80 point Bergeron/ROR/Couturier are much different in value than a 70-80 point Sean Monahan.

70 Points is a bit unrealistic for him anyway, I don't see him hitting that consistently in his career. Especially since I doubt he'll be the #1C in Montreal.

 

[Gillings]

Of course they will draft Wright. But if they don't, I'd think it's got to be because they believe Jiricek is a top pair guy. Shea Weber replacement potential.

Ew Shea weber in his prime MAYBE

If they are swinging for a #1d at first overall it's because they think its Lidstrom or better...

OR because they think all the forwards are easily replaced by tanking one more year and taking a top forward next draft.

in which case... trade down.

 

[CutOnDime97]

Here goes the argument of ‘’they’re anonymous so it must be fake scouts’’ narrative…

"Pronman is a noted bozo" is a better argument

 

[Gillings]

As a Montreal fan, I am almost as excited over our 2nd pick at 26 as I am about our first overall.

That Caufield pick was our True #1 in the last 210 years lol

 

[Gillings]

Some people are just silly. But I’m sure it comes from a place where emotion blocks logic, even though they think they fool others, or perhaps even themselves by presenting this emotionally generated opinion as logical thought.

As in any draft, anything can look completely different than it does today, and playing the long game, the #1 pick probably doesn’t end the next player more often than not, but on this side of it, for people to argue against a virtually 100% professional scouting consensus? I don’t get it. I mean, it does make you special, but not in the you think it does.

Worst part is, is that is every chance he doesn’t become the best player in this draft, and these people will be convinced it’s because they knew it. From their couch, they know know more than a virtual 100% consensus draft rank.

It’s ok, you do you. Think that you do you know something. The undeniable and inescapable truth (but I know you will try to run from it) is that for the most part, these opinions are coming from people who don’t want it to be Wright, simply because they don’t want it to be. That’s emotion. Not logic.

I know this will fail to register, and that doesn’t actually matter. But this is sad and pathetic behaviour.

This is hilarious.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

70 Points is a bit unrealistic for him anyway, I don't see him hitting that consistently in his career. Especially since I doubt he'll be the #1C in Montreal.

Define "consistently". Almost every year of his career? Or a big chunk of years in his prime.

Because there are maybe 5 or 6 players who have "consistently" scored 70+ points for the vast majority of their careers, but there are quite a lot more than that who were able to hit 70+ multiple times during their best seasons.

 

[Gillings]

I swear, none of you have seen wright play hockey.

He makes the Wright plays, At the Wright times and is usually 1-2 steps ahead of everyone ( unfortunaely his teammates too ) He plays a pro game without "flash".

He's the SUREFIRE #1 2022 ***NHL*** prospect.

Sure Cooley has flash
Slaf has OK IQ which his size makes look better

But no player in this draft has a HIGHER Complete package of Projectable NHL ability and projectablity than Wright does.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

anyone who says 70 points is unrealistic for him is out to lunch. He may not be a superstar in the McDavid/Mackinnon/Matthews sense but he could absolutely reach the level of the Scheifele and Zibenejads.

so many people trying to make absolute statements here when absolutely none of it will matter, we need to wait and see what kind of player he will be. Clearly opinions are divided, but beating the horse to death over what his potential is at this stage is pointless.

 

[lomiller1]

anyone who says 70 points is unrealistic for him is out to lunch. He may not be a superstar in the McDavid/Mackinnon/Matthews sense but he could absolutely reach the level of the Scheifele and Zibenejads.

Scheifele has put up a point per game or better in 6 consecutive seasons. I'm not sure I ever see Wright hitting that a point per game.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Scheifele has put up a point per game or better in 6 consecutive seasons. I'm not sure I ever see Wright hitting that a point per game.

Were you sure that Scheifele would hit a ppg in 6 consecutive seasons when he was drafted 7oa in 2011, scoring 75pts in 66 games?

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I get the concerns with Wright, but many of the takes here are absolutely ridiculous. There's a chance he never reaches that level, but to say his absolute ceiling is 60 points is laughable.

SEVENTY-FIVE different forwards hit 60 points this season, not to mention others that would have hit that mark had they been healthy. How many of those players were better prospects than Wright? How many of them displayed the same upside as Wright at the same age?

 

[Gillings]

I get the concerns with Wright, but many of the takes here are absolutely ridiculous. There's a chance he never reaches that level, but to say his absolute ceiling is 60 points is laughable.

SEVENTY-FIVE different forwards hit 60 points this season, not to mention others that would have hit that mark had they been healthy. How many of those players were better prospects than Wright? How many of them displayed the same upside as Wright at the same age?

Exactly, we have an easy 100 point guy PP PK 5v5 set up man with a nasty shot

 

[93LEAFS]

I get the concerns with Wright, but many of the takes here are absolutely ridiculous. There's a chance he never reaches that level, but to say his absolute ceiling is 60 points is laughable.

SEVENTY-FIVE different forwards hit 60 points this season, not to mention others that would have hit that mark had they been healthy. How many of those players were better prospects than Wright? How many of them displayed the same upside as Wright at the same age?

Anyone who speaks in absolutes about prospects is just ignoring history. No one thought Yakupov would be this bad or Gaudreau would be this good. Now, you can try to handicap it to likely percentages based on skill sets and available data, but to ignore tail end distributions (and this isn't even a tail end event) is pointless. Is their a world he wins multiple Harts? Yes, is it something I'd bet on absolutely not. Same with him being a 40 or less point player.

Scoring has also dramatically gone up the last 2 or 3 years with this year being the big one. I never really thought Matthews would hit 60 as a prospect, I knew his upper echelon was a Rocket Winner it was just an unlikely event. In 2016 we were talking about how a PPG guy is massive, and this year we had quite a few players who broke 100.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I get the concerns with Wright, but many of the takes here are absolutely ridiculous. There's a chance he never reaches that level, but to say his absolute ceiling is 60 points is laughable.

SEVENTY-FIVE different forwards hit 60 points this season, not to mention others that would have hit that mark had they been healthy. How many of those players were better prospects than Wright? How many of them displayed the same upside as Wright at the same age?

This is the easiest crowd to fade in hfboards history. Normally you have to make a hot take to end up against the hive mind, but this year? You can bet on an exceptional status golden boy and still get to say ''I told you so.''

Looking forward to it.

 

[Benstheman]

If Habs rebuild goes well (which means our top 2 C will get great wingers at one point) and Habs become a contender in 4-5 years, no doubt in my mind Wright gets to 1 ppg level.

Habs will be a two-headed monster with Suzuki and Wright playing 20 minute + each.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I get the concerns with Wright, but many of the takes here are absolutely ridiculous. There's a chance he never reaches that level, but to say his absolute ceiling is 60 points is laughable.

SEVENTY-FIVE different forwards hit 60 points this season, not to mention others that would have hit that mark had they been healthy. How many of those players were better prospects than Wright? How many of them displayed the same upside as Wright at the same age?

You underestimate how rare it is to have a 70 point or a ppg player in Montreal. Most fans in montreal arent expecting much more than that. Even with scoring up. We have just been a low scoring team with no talent for many many many years. No prospect is a sure thing to put up high point totals here in Montreal. Even a first overall.

 

[lomiller1]

Were you sure that Scheifele would hit a ppg in 6 consecutive seasons when he was drafted 7oa in 2011, scoring 75pts in 66 games?

He's exceeded expectations for where he was picked for sure, but there is also context to his draft numbers. He was by far the best player on a really bad team. Contrary to what Wright fanatics keep trying to say, playing on bad teams suppresses your point totals because you have no one to pass you the puck and no one to pass it to. Scheifele was also in his first OHL season and had only committed to hockey as his full time sport a year earlier. He still had major skating and physical strength issues to work through, his playing weight now is almost 50lbs higher than when he was drafted (he's a workout fanatic so his overall fitness level is much higher now aw well)

You can't just go around assuming Wright, or any other will somehow exceed what he's shown so far in the CHL and that doesn't paint the picture of a 70-80 point #1 C. It could happen, it's not impossible, a dew players drafted every year do so, but there is no real reason to think Wright will be that player. Just the opposite in fact, unlike a Scheifele he doesn't have low hanging fruit to work on skating or strength issues. If he's physical ready for the NHL and miles ahead of his CHL peers and basically at his NHL level now why the meh (for a 1OA) performance in the CHL? Usually this signifies effort or hockey IQ issues that are a lot harder to identify in scouting and a lot harder to fix than the need to get stronger on your skates.

 

[KingKhron]

Ew Shea weber in his prime MAYBE

If they are swinging for a #1d at first overall it's because they think its Lidstrom or better...

OR because they think all the forwards are easily replaced by tanking one more year and taking a top forward next draft.

in which case... trade down.

Or better?? Better than Lidstrom. Ok.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He's exceeded expectations for where he was picked for sure, but there is also context to his draft numbers. He was by far the best player on a really bad team. Contrary to what Wright fanatics keep trying to say, playing on bad teams suppresses your point totals because you have no one to pass you the puck and no one to pass it to. Scheifele was also in his first OHL season and had only committed to hockey as his full time sport a year earlier. He still had major skating and physical strength issues to work through, his playing weight now is almost 50lbs higher than when he was drafted (he's a workout fanatic so his overall fitness level is much higher now aw well)

You can't just go around assuming Wright, or any other will somehow exceed what he's shown so far in the CHL and that doesn't paint the picture of a 70-80 point #1 C. It could happen, it's not impossible, a dew players drafted every year do so, but there is no real reason to think Wright will be that player. Just the opposite in fact, unlike a Scheifele he doesn't have low hanging fruit to work on skating or strength issues. If he's physical ready for the NHL and miles ahead of his CHL peers and basically at his NHL level now why the meh (for a 1OA) performance in the CHL? Usually this signifies effort or hockey IQ issues that are a lot harder to identify in scouting and a lot harder to fix than the need to get stronger on your skates.

You can't go around assuming Wright will not be a PPG player in the league either. It goes both ways. His above average everything combined with elite hockey sense sets himself nicely for a productive career. Your posts on Wright are so consistently negative that its clear you have some sort of agenda and its funny to read. lol

 

[lomiller1]

You can't go around assuming Wright will not be a PPG player in the league either.

Of course you can. Hardly any NHL players end up putting up a point per game, the initial assumption for every single player is that they won't be that type of player. When you watch a prospect he may show abilities that change that, but if you compare Wright to the type of prospects that had a really high chance to be that ppg player he's way way behind. I mean he isn't even close. That's not to say he has no chance but he's more likely to be a 40 point player than an 80 point player based on what he's shown in the CHL this year. The real likleyhood is that he falls somewhere in between.

His above average everything combined with elite hockey sense sets himself nicely for a productive career. Your posts on Wright are so consistently negative that its clear you have some sort of agenda and its funny to read. lol

I don't see elite hockey sense in fact I think hockey sense is a deficiency for him He didn't dominate the CHL the way he should have with his physical tools, this points to something missing in his hockey IQ. Either that or he's just plain lazy, which would be worse.

Your posts on Wright are so consistently negative that its clear you have some sort of agenda and its funny to read. lol

Expecting a prospect to be a 60 point player isn't being negative, most prospects don't come close to that and even high draft picks don't generally exceed that.

You and others seem to think that because Wright is the "consensus 1st overall pick" it means he'll automatically be an elite player, but it's not draft position that decides that it's play on the ice, and Wrights actual play this year doesn't justify that assumption. He'll likely go 1OA but only because the other alternatives are equally uninspiring, it's a particularly weak draft at the top end and some people need to come to grips with that.