C Shane Wright - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2022, 4th, SEA) Part 3

[93LEAFS]

The interviews might have been pivotal, for all we know, but it's not like he played so well that it had to be the interviews.

You say it had to be something aside from the stats, and you're right, his stats were fine. And if you watched Shane Wright play you would have seen it.

His stats were sub-par for a number one pick coming out of the CHL, but I don't think there was any player in the draft this year who had any chance of going #1OA where you couldn't say their stats were underwhelming (as a #1OA) for the league they were coming out of.

 

[Kennerback]

His stats were sub-par for a number one pick coming out of the CHL, but I don't think there was any player in the draft this year who had any chance of going #1OA where you couldn't say their stats were underwhelming (as a #1OA) for the league they were coming out of.

It wasn’t a good year for stats… Even Cooley’s were not earth shattering.

 

[93LEAFS]

It wasn’t a good year for stats… Even Cooley’s were not earth shattering.

was obviously including him. It was pretty universal. Cooley's USNTDP numbers obviously didn't stand out next to guys like Matthews, Eichel and Hughes who were the last huge USNTDP prospects. Almost impossible to figure out how to value Nemec's given we haven't seen a top prospect in that league in almost a decade.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

His stats were sub-par for a number one pick coming out of the CHL, but I don't think there was any player in the draft this year who had any chance of going #1OA where you couldn't say their stats were underwhelming (as a #1OA) for the league they were coming out of.

Lane Hutson is probably the only player who statistically was worthy of first overall selection. But to your point, he was never in contention for the top pick. If he was 6'2 200 lbs he probably does go 1st though.

I think Nemec's numbers were pretty respectable, especially in the playoffs. Probably the best for his position among any actual challenger for the top pick, though its hard to compare Slovak Extraleague production - not nearly as many quality NHLe indicators. I've seen it all over the place. But looking at Clarke's numbers last year, I think Nemec's production is borderline 1OA quality.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You could have chosen a better example.

Of course there was no way Wright's production would see the same increase as Del Bel Belluz's did because of their respective roles on their club from one year to the next. Wright went from top line center getting top PP unit time to ... top line center getting top PP time. DBB went from a little used 4th liner as a rookie to getting top line minutes.

This is like saying Draisaitl improved in the NHL while McDavid didn't really improve much because Draisaitl went from a 9 point rookie to a 100+ point player in his prime, while McDavid "only" improved from a roughly 90 point rookie to a 110+ point player in his prime.

I think it's pretty clear that DBB's role increased because he improved so much... Just watch his play in 2020 vs 2022. It's like watching a different player because he was so physically immature (his skating was extremely weak and he had no power in his game).

You don't see nearly the same sort of transformation in Wright's game. It's honestly hard to even tell the difference between Wright at 15/16 vs 17/18 when you watch game tape . . . the biggest difference is that 15 year old Wright was a much hungrier player and more aggressive with the puck.

Wyatt Johnston is another great example. Brennan Othmann too - Wright had more than twice as many points as both of them in 2020, and then they both outscored him this past year.

 

[93LEAFS]

Lane Hutson is probably the only player who statistically was worthy of first overall selection. But to your point, he was never in contention for the top pick. If he was 6'2 200 lbs he probably does go 1st though.

I think Nemec's numbers were pretty respectable, especially in the playoffs. Probably the best for his position among any actual challenger for the top pick, though its hard to compare Slovak Extraleague production - not nearly as many quality NHLe indicators. I've seen it all over the place. But looking at Clarke's numbers last year, I think Nemec's production is borderline 1OA quality.

I believe you could also make an argument for Dumais, similar to Huston. As for Nemec, figuring out how to value that league is an absolute nightmare given that lack of elite 17/18 year olds to come out of it the past decade. But, his numbers on surface level don't make you scratch your head knowing its a competitive men's league.

 

[josra33]

Actually a lot of people predicted Wright falling out of the top 3.

A lot of people predicted Nolan Patrick was gonna go first overall too… what’s your point?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

A lot of people predicted Nolan Patrick was gonna go first overall too… what’s your point?

The dude said that "nobody saw Wright falling to 4" which is categorically false. There were plenty of people who saw that as a very realistic possibility.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think it's pretty clear that DBB's role increased because he improved so much... Just watch his play in 2020 vs 2022. It's like watching a different player because he was so physically immature (his skating was extremely weak and he had no power in his game).

You don't see nearly the same sort of transformation in Wright's game. It's honestly hard to even tell the difference between Wright at 15/16 vs 17/18 when you watch game tape . . . the biggest difference is that 15 year old Wright was a much hungrier player and more aggressive with the puck.

Wyatt Johnston is another great example. Brennan Othmann too - Wright had more than twice as many points as both of them in 2020, and then they both outscored him this past year.

My point was comparing the point totals of a guy who played first line last season and then continued to play first line this season with a guy who played fourth line last season to now playing first line this season is going to yield results where it heavily favors the latter. It's misleading about the improvements in production because of course anyone who goes from 4th line minutes to 1st line minutes is going to see a much more drastic improvement over someone who got 1st line minutes all along.

There were other apples to apples examples you could have used but instead chose an apples to oranges example just to try and paint Wright as "not improving" while the other guy did, but left out the part where a big part of the increase in production was due to going from 4th line minutes to 1st line minutes.

 

[gstommylee]

The dude said that "nobody saw Wright falling to 4" which is categorically false. There were plenty of people who saw that as a very realistic possibility.

Majority of the drafts where there isn't a clear front runner to where that player and only that player is 1OA, there always a chance of a different top 5 order of players can happen. Whether Montreal made the right decision by going with slaf instead of Wright only time will tell.

With that said there always the possibility that Wright will end up doing way better with Seattle than he would with Montreal due to lack of Media pressure that players have to deal with while playing for Montreal. Not even i if i was a player would be able to deal with that kind of pressure.

 

[gstommylee]

I think it's pretty clear that DBB's role increased because he improved so much... Just watch his play in 2020 vs 2022. It's like watching a different player because he was so physically immature (his skating was extremely weak and he had no power in his game).

You don't see nearly the same sort of transformation in Wright's game. It's honestly hard to even tell the difference between Wright at 15/16 vs 17/18 when you watch game tape . . . the biggest difference is that 15 year old Wright was a much hungrier player and more aggressive with the puck.

Wyatt Johnston is another great example. Brennan Othmann too - Wright had more than twice as many points as both of them in 2020, and then they both outscored him this past year.

And there is a reason why Wright was much hungrier of a player in at 15 than at 17/18 and thats cause there was no 20-21 OHL season. SO he has to becareful and cautious from pushing himself harder to play even better than he did due to the risk of injuries and droping his draft stock even further and i mean dropping out side top 5 or even top 10. Now that wright got drafted, he can go back to playing the way he did as a 15 year old and not worry about picking up a bad injury from playing too hard.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

My point was comparing the point totals of a guy who played first line last season and then continued to play first line this season with a guy who played fourth line last season to now playing first line this season is going to yield results where it heavily favors the latter. It's misleading about the improvements in production because of course anyone who goes from 4th line minutes to 1st line minutes is going to see a much more drastic improvement over someone who got 1st line minutes all along.

There were other apples to apples examples you could have used but instead chose an apples to oranges example just to try and paint Wright as "not improving" while the other guy did, but left out the part where a big part of the increase in production was due to going from 4th line minutes to 1st line minutes.

So you agree that Wright showed stagnated development relative to his OHL peers, you just don't like the first example of an OHL forward in his true draft year that also played before COVID that popped into my head? Who else was there? Zhilkin? He went from 15 points to 55. I don't think there were very many 16 year olds playing top line duties back during Wright's rookie year. For your "apples to apples" comparison, are you're referring to from prior draft classes? Because that also feels like apples to oranges.

The reality is that during the 2 year period between his 15/16 year old season and 17/18 year old season, Wright really didn't progress very much. His goal scoring output dropped off significantly, scoring 4 less goals in 16 more games. He went from leading Kingston in goals and points to finishing 5th and 2nd. He went from outscoring Frasca by 24 goals and 23 points to essentially having the same PPG and scoring 10 less goals.

By the eye test, I think he may have actually been a more effective player 2 years ago - he was so much more aggressive and confident with the puck, getting to dangerous areas much more often while competing hard during puck battles. Then this past year he turned into this soft perimeter type of player who was often trailing the play instead of driving it.

I feel like some of it has to be the coaching, but it should also be noted that Wright was already extremely physically mature at 15, so he didn't get the type of boost later bloomers like DBB and Johnston got. On top of that, there were very visible signs that he was just not that motivated last year.

So no, the COVID excuse doesn't seem to hold water. He's a talented kid, so I hope he takes falling so far as an actual wakeup call. Because he'll have a very short and disappointing NHL career if he plays with the sort of compete level he displayed last year. His on ice demeanor gave me Eichel vibes. And unfortunately for Wright, he's nowhere near talented enough to get away with it at the next level.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And there is a reason why Wright was much hungrier of a player in at 15 than at 17/18 and thats cause there was no 20-21 OHL season. SO he has to becareful and cautious from pushing himself harder to play even better than he did due to the risk of injuries and droping his draft stock even further and i mean dropping out side top 5 or even top 10. Now that wright got drafted, he can go back to playing the way he did as a 15 year old and not worry about picking up a bad injury from playing too hard.

So Wright consciously decided to play half ass hockey all season and into the playoffs because he might get injured and he didn't want to fall in the draft? That certainly backfired. For all the talk of wanting to go 1st, this would make it seem like he was more concerned with going in top 5...

Honestly if he had missed the whole season due to a recoverable injury, he almost definitely goes #1. His 15 year old season + U18 performance would have been enough for GMs to trust he was the best player available, especially with how weak the top of the draft was.

And it's not even like he played a "high risk" style at 15 - he wasn't out there taking runs at defenseman or trying to crash the net at full speed. He just skated harder and was more relentless on the forecheck.

Honestly the whole idea is bull**** and reeks of homer fanboys desperately trying to manufacture excuses for him. The sooner everyone realizes that maybe he's just not good as they'd hoped, the better it will be for Wright long term. And I include Shane himself in that group of everyone.

 

[Kennerback]

Majority of the drafts where there isn't a clear front runner to where that player and only that player is 1OA, there always a chance of a different top 5 order of players can happen. Whether Montreal made the right decision by going with slaf instead of Wright only time will tell.

With that said there always the possibility that Wright will end up doing way better with Seattle than he would with Montreal due to lack of Media pressure that players have to deal with while playing for Montreal. Not even i if i was a player would be able to deal with that kind of pressure.

Shane Wright will not need to deal with the whirlwind of 30+ journalists knocking the door down after every home game. Last time Montreal had a 1OA years ago, it did not go well at all…. IMO, he’ll develop better in Seattle. The transition to the NHL will be more seamless.

 

[gstommylee]

So Wright consciously decided to play half ass hockey all season and into the playoffs because he might get injured and he didn't want to fall in the draft? That certainly backfired. For all the talk of wanting to go 1st, this would make it seem like he was more concerned with going in top 5...

Honestly if he had missed the whole season due to a recoverable injury, he almost definitely goes #1. His 15 year old season + U18 performance would have been enough for GMs to trust he was the best player available, especially with how weak the top of the draft was.

And it's not even like he played a "high risk" style at 15 - he wasn't out there taking runs at defenseman or trying to crash the net at full speed. He just skated harder and was more relentless on the forecheck.

Honestly the whole idea is bull**** and reeks of homer fanboys desperately trying to manufacture excuses for him. The sooner everyone realizes that maybe he's just not good as they'd hoped, the better it will be for Wright long term. And I include Shane himself in that group of everyone.

So what the heck was he was suppose to do when the virus mess wiped out an ENTIRE development year for OHL players? Push himself to where he ends up a major injury to the point he misses another year thus causing himself to drop even further in the draft?

Getting 96 points in a season isn't half assing it.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

I don't think Shane Wright half-assed it due to the threat of injuries.

Suggesting he would do so seems like a massive condemnation of his character.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So what the heck was he was suppose to do when the virus mess wiped out an ENTIRE development year for OHL players? Push himself to where he ends up a major injury to the point he misses another year thus causing himself to drop even further in the draft?

Getting 96 points in a season isn't half assing it.

He's supposed to come back to the league when it starts back up and compete hard every night. Like the majority of his peers competing for draft positions did.

You make it sound like he was working so hard out there, that any further exertion would have resulted in major injury. Clearly you didn't watch Wright play this year.

And again, if he was injured in the first game of the season and doesn't play the rest of the year, he probably goes 1st overall, because all scouts had to go on was his phenomenal 15 year old season and 5 prolific games at the U18.

I think he did more to hurt his draft stock by playing such lazy hockey this year than he would have had he just sat out with a recoverable injury.

 

[ijuka]

So what the heck was he was suppose to do when the virus mess wiped out an ENTIRE development year for OHL players? Push himself to where he ends up a major injury to the point he misses another year thus causing himself to drop even further in the draft?

Getting 96 points in a season isn't half assing it.

Usually, I'd expect a player to give it their all for their club team, doing their best to help the team win. If injuries happen, they happen.

If a player half-asses it the way Wright did because they're afraid of getting injured, then that's a pretty serious character flag.

Plenty of other players missed their seasons, too. How is this unique to Wright? He plays in OHL. If everyone in OHL missed a season, then just about everyone Wright plays against missed that same season as well.

 

[The Marquis]

The dude said that "nobody saw Wright falling to 4" which is categorically false. There were plenty of people who saw that as a very realistic possibility.

Yet nobody had him falling further than 4th. Coincidentally where Seattle picked him. A vast majority had him going first, a couple 2nd, and a slightly larger handful 4th. Interesting that almost every scouting report and mock draft that had Slaf going 1OA, Wright went to 4th.

All that said, the question of whether Seattle would have taken him 1OA is something none of us can answer, but there's a good case for it. The Kraken's head scout indicated "Christmas came early" when they got to pick Wright. That's a telling statement, though in no way definitive. I do think that due to need, Seattle would have still taken him.

 

[Kennerback]

Yet nobody had him falling further than 4th. Coincidentally where Seattle picked him. A vast majority had him going first, a couple 2nd, and a slightly larger handful 4th. Interesting that almost every scouting report and mock draft that had Slaf going 1OA, Wright went to 4th.

All that said, the question of whether Seattle would have taken him 1OA is something none of us can answer, but there's a good case for it. The Kraken's head scout indicated "Christmas came early" when they got to pick Wright. That's a telling statement, though in no way definitive. I do think that due to need, Seattle would have still taken him.

Does anyone have the top-4 of Montreal, Arizona, New Jersey or Seattle’s list?

 

[The Marquis]

Does anyone have the top-4 of Montreal, Arizona, New Jersey or Seattle’s list?

Yes.

 

[gstommylee]

Yet nobody had him falling further than 4th. Coincidentally where Seattle picked him. A vast majority had him going first, a couple 2nd, and a slightly larger handful 4th. Interesting that almost every scouting report and mock draft that had Slaf going 1OA, Wright went to 4th.

All that said, the question of whether Seattle would have taken him 1OA is something none of us can answer, but there's a good case for it. The Kraken's head scout indicated "Christmas came early" when they got to pick Wright. That's a telling statement, though in no way definitive. I do think that due to need, Seattle would have still taken him.

The team also said several times that their plan is to build through the middle and you need centers to do that. Out of the prospects we drafted 7 are centers and 1 can play all 3 forward positions.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

So you agree that Wright showed stagnated development relative to his OHL peers, you just don't like the first example of an OHL forward in his true draft year that also played before COVID that popped into my head? Who else was there? Zhilkin? He went from 15 points to 55. I don't think there were very many 16 year olds playing top line duties back during Wright's rookie year. For your "apples to apples" comparison, are you're referring to from prior draft classes? Because that also feels like apples to oranges.

The reality is that during the 2 year period between his 15/16 year old season and 17/18 year old season, Wright really didn't progress very much. His goal scoring output dropped off significantly, scoring 4 less goals in 16 more games. He went from leading Kingston in goals and points to finishing 5th and 2nd. He went from outscoring Frasca by 24 goals and 23 points to essentially having the same PPG and scoring 10 less goals.

By the eye test, I think he may have actually been a more effective player 2 years ago - he was so much more aggressive and confident with the puck, getting to dangerous areas much more often while competing hard during puck battles. Then this past year he turned into this soft perimeter type of player who was often trailing the play instead of driving it.

I feel like some of it has to be the coaching, but it should also be noted that Wright was already extremely physically mature at 15, so he didn't get the type of boost later bloomers like DBB and Johnston got. On top of that, there were very visible signs that he was just not that motivated last year.

So no, the COVID excuse doesn't seem to hold water. He's a talented kid, so I hope he takes falling so far as an actual wakeup call. Because he'll have a very short and disappointing NHL career if he plays with the sort of compete level he displayed last year. His on ice demeanor gave me Eichel vibes. And unfortunately for Wright, he's nowhere near talented enough to get away with it at the next level.

I think there are definitely areas Wright needs to work on, but I also think you tend to gloss over the things where his game did take a pretty big leap in improvement. One such area is as a playmaker/puck distributor for his line. His rookie season he was basically a shooter and didn't show a consistent ability to create for his linemates. This season he was the primary puck distributor for his line and it was reflected in his assist totals.

That's my other issue with these criticisms (not just yours) of Wright's season. Everything focuses on his goal totals or his intensity, but never seems to mention the stuff he actually did improve upon, like as a playmaker/puck distributor.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Yet nobody had him falling further than 4th. Coincidentally where Seattle picked him. A vast majority had him going first, a couple 2nd, and a slightly larger handful 4th. Interesting that almost every scouting report and mock draft that had Slaf going 1OA, Wright went to 4th.

All that said, the question of whether Seattle would have taken him 1OA is something none of us can answer, but there's a good case for it. The Kraken's head scout indicated "Christmas came early" when they got to pick Wright. That's a telling statement, though in no way definitive. I do think that due to need, Seattle would have still taken him.

What do expect a team to say about their pick: “We wish we could have picked another player

Of course they, like every team said: “We’re surprised that he was available we were drafting, we had him rated much higher.”

 

[Kennerback]

Yes.

in open sources on the internets? If so, is there a link?

According to the number of interviews, I can speculate it was Slafkovsky or Wright, with Cooley at 3rd for Mtl. I don’t know if the Devils had Slaf ahead of Nemec? And because they’re set at Center, who knows who they had at 3.

As for Arizona, I think they heavily scouted Cooley and, judging by their comments, they seem to have really fallen in love with him. They didn’t expect to have Wright there. Still, I think Cooley might have been #1 on their list. Then there’s the Xmas comment from Francis, it suggests Wright might have been their #1?