C Quinton Byfield (2020, 2nd, LAK) part IV

[hawksrule]

Why not directly address my post?

You can type 4 paragraphs about how you're a Lafreniere fan (not so if you are putting forth the bad faith argument you are) and how all that matters is the extremely small sample size results, but you also wouldn't have made this argument two weeks ago, and you know it. In fact, you didn't address either how there's no argument for Byfield that isn't he's had some better puck luck the last two weeks.

If you think there is any team in the NHL that today would take LaFreniere over Byfield, you’re out to lunch.

 

[kinghock]

We all knew this was coming, even those that hated him. Generated waaaaay too much last year without production.

Kopitar/Byfield, PLD, Danault is such an even wave of centres going out line after line in LA.

I think in few years it will be Byfield, PLD, Turcotte

 

[Felidae]

Byfield is my favourite prospect from the 2020 draft and arguably the last few drafts. But it's premature to say he'll turn out better than Stutzle or Lafreniere. Other young players that have been disappointing so far like Kakko and Lafreniere have stretches of looking really good and then regressing. Let's see him sustain this play for a full season

He's most certainly not on Stutzles level yet either

 

[staveNsteel]

The correct pick at the time is still Stutzle AINEC. Byfield is just riding off a hot start sheltered by PLD. He'd be exposed without the vets protecting and doing all the dirty work for him. He's a late first rounder at best, but was overhyped due to size like Slafkovsky.

So what you're saying is that you've never actually watched Byfield play! He's by no means riding anyone's coattails.. doing a ton of work himself, and looks great doing it! His draft position is just fine.

As for him vs Stutzle, at the end of the day, when they are both say 25.. if Byfiled is a 1C putting up a PPG+ and Stutzle is a 1C putting up a PPG+, neither of which winning a cup before that, does it really matters who got to their peak first? Development isn't linear, so some guys take longer than others.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Have you watched either play this season to say this? It sounds like you are just looking at a boxscore.

Lafreniere has been very good.

I agree, this has been the best start to Laf's career, in terms of eye test. He's looked like a legitimate 2nd line LW.

He’d have 10 points if Chytil could finish any chances early this season.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Chytil has been robbed a few times off of nice feeds from Lafreniere, but Lafreniere has also been the beneficiary of plenty of nice plays from his teammates. Lafreniere is still outperforming expected goals by ~16%.

Byfield is having success and congrats to him, but the idea that he’s past Lafreniere makes no sense. At no point before two weeks ago would anyone have suggested it

I would have, and did.

and because Byfield has a little more puck luck for two weeks (when there’s literally no other argument for him and hasn’t been for years) that all of a sudden he’s better.

Crazy.

Edit: Take a look at their PDO’s

Byfield: 1.046
Lafreniere: .973

Why would you use their PDOs? Their offensive production has nothing to do with their goaltender's save percentage. It's actually Lafreniere who has had the slightly better puck luck, as he's been outperforming 5v5 expected goals at a higher rate:

Byfield at 5v5:
9 GF vs 7.93 xGF
+1.07 goals vs expected (13%)

Lafreniere at 5v5:
8 GF vs 6.88 xGF
+1.12 goals vs expected (16%)

Yeah, Byfield has a higher on ice sh%, but it's only because a much larger proportion of his on ice shot attempts are high danger chances. 23% of the King's 153 shot attempts with Byfield on the ice are high danger chances, vs only 16% of the Rangers 167 shot attempts with Laf on the ice.

when there’s literally no other argument for him and hasn’t been for years

More false statements from you. Byfield is very clearly outperforming Lafreniere. Just watch a game. He's driving play, and it shows in the numbers:

Byfield at 5v5:
133:55 TOI
2.69 p/60
3.55 xGF/60
60.5% xG%
+3.98 rel xG%

Lafreniere at 5v5:
154:46 TOI
1.51 p/60
2.61 xGF/60
52.6% xG%
-0.17 rel xG%

How is that for outperforming?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Byfield is my favourite prospect from the 2020 draft and arguably the last few drafts. But it's premature to say he'll turn out better than Stutzle or Lafreniere. Other young players that have been disappointing so far like Kakko and Lafreniere have stretches of looking really good and then regressing. Let's see him sustain this play for a full season

He's most certainly not on Stutzles level yet either

I agree with this

I said before Byfield is his own player now, it's not really worth the comparisons, I'd add Laf to that because each have had such different situations and trajectories it'll be impossible to get a real read on these guys for another couple of years at least. I don't think even Stutzle is 'done' developing even if he arrived faster.

At this point though what Byfield is is a guy who has been tilting the ice at an insane clip since January and now the production is starting to follow so it's ok to be excited, especially when there are so many people who closed the book on him years ago telling us how we should feel.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Stutzle's getting twice the power play time on ice per game than Byfield right now. Kings fans are hopeful that Byfield gets bumped onto the top power play unit.

I may be biased, but I would bet most people see Byfield's trajectory being higher than Lafreniere's right now, and I think by the end of the season, we might say that Byfield might be closer to Stutzle than to Lafreniere. I did not think I'd be saying that right now, but Quinton has taken HUGE strides since last season.

You were saying he was a total bust just a month ago....nice.

 

[ORRFForever]

I said before Byfield is his own player now, it's not really worth the comparisons, I'd add Laf to that because each have had such different situations and trajectories it'll be impossible to get a real read on these guys

Well said and I agree.

Having said that, it's hard NOT to make the comparison - that's coming from me, a Canadian who wants BOTH to be GREAT.

Who do I think will be better?

Right now, I think it will be QB and it might not be close. (sad face)

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Well said and I agree.

Having said that, it's hard NOT to make the comparison - that's coming from me, a Canadian who wants BOTH to be GREAT.

Who do I think will be better?

Right now, I think it will be QB and it might not be close. (sad face)

His trajectory right now is bonkers, that's for sure. Obviously development doesn't work that way but still.

 

[howlman]

Depending on the odds I would be willing to bet a significant amount of money that Byfield will end up being the best player from his draft.

Correct

 

[Gold Standard]

Would like to see LA sign him to that extension pronto.

And for LA to get bounded from the playoff contention and for Byfield to get some international reps with Team Canada in May. Been waiting for him to arrive.

 

[MardyBum]

Very impressive prospect, can't wait to see where he's at with 100 NHL games.

 

[kilowatt]

You were saying he was a total bust just a month ago....nice.

He's done all the things I was hoping to see. Happy to be wrong, and I was always rooting for his success, but what we saw last year was a very timid player who had a hard time making plays. People on the Kings board were sharing highlight reels of just normal, everyday routine plays he made because there was nothing else to show. The "best plays" from last year were that he was a decent NHL player. He had size and speed, but would he be able to put it all together? It's only been 10 games, so we still don't know for sure, but he's looking a lot more promising now.

I also wouldn't necessarily say that "total bust" and "better than Lafreniere" are mutually exclusive things, but Byfield is proving the he belongs on a top line right now. Would love to see him get another shot at playing center again at some point too.

 

[prongertheman9]

I agree, this has been the best start to Laf's career, in terms of eye test. He's looked like a legitimate 2nd line LW.


That's a bit of an exaggeration. Chytil has been robbed a few times off of nice feeds from Lafreniere, but Lafreniere has also been the beneficiary of plenty of nice plays from his teammates. Lafreniere is still outperforming expected goals by ~16%.


I would have, and did.



Why would you use their PDOs? Their offensive production has nothing to do with their goaltender's save percentage. It's actually Lafreniere who has had the slightly better puck luck, as he's been outperforming 5v5 expected goals at a higher rate:

Byfield at 5v5:
9 GF vs 7.93 xGF
+1.07 goals vs expected (13%)

Lafreniere at 5v5:
8 GF vs 6.88 xGF
+1.12 goals vs expected (16%)

Yeah, Byfield has a higher on ice sh%, but it's only because a much larger proportion of his on ice shot attempts are high danger chances. 23% of the King's 153 shot attempts with Byfield on the ice are high danger chances, vs only 16% of the Rangers 167 shot attempts with Laf on the ice.


More false statements from you. Byfield is very clearly outperforming Lafreniere. Just watch a game. He's driving play, and it shows in the numbers:

Byfield at 5v5:
133:55 TOI
2.69 p/60
3.55 xGF/60
60.5% xG%
+3.98 rel xG%

Lafreniere at 5v5:
154:46 TOI
1.51 p/60
2.61 xGF/60
52.6% xG%
-0.17 rel xG%

How is that for outperforming?

Pretty quiet from @Pavel Buchnevich now that someone “directly addressed his posts”

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Pretty quiet from @Pavel Buchnevich now that someone “directly addressed his posts”

I know he put me on ignore in the past, wouldn't be surprised if I was back on it.

 

[Herby]

The belief that "Nobody was taking Byfield over Laf a month ago" is ridiculous. I am far from the worlds biggest QB fan, but over the summer I was pretty vocal that I would take him over Laf.

Byfield has some flaws in his game, but he has an upside that Laf doesn't possess.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Pretty quiet from @Pavel Buchnevich now that someone “directly addressed his posts”

Nothing visible to me. And if it's there and it's not visible for me, I've deemed it in advance to not be worth my time. That's all.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The belief that "Nobody was taking Byfield over Laf a month ago" is ridiculous. I am far from the worlds biggest QB fan, but over the summer I was pretty vocal that I would take him over Laf.

Byfield has some flaws in his game, but he has an upside that Laf doesn't possess.

But they weren't. You as a Kings fan might've taken Byfield (and Rangers fans might've taken Lafreniere), but find me something remotely objective, like a poll or some measure favoring Byfield.

Saying he has better upside is just a subjective generality. I can say the same in Lafreniere's favor. It means virtually nothing, and is plainly a weak argument.

 

[Jovavic]

Nothing visible to me. And if it's there and it's not visible for me, I've deemed it in advance to not be worth my time. That's all.

I agree, this has been the best start to Laf's career, in terms of eye test. He's looked like a legitimate 2nd line LW.


That's a bit of an exaggeration. Chytil has been robbed a few times off of nice feeds from Lafreniere, but Lafreniere has also been the beneficiary of plenty of nice plays from his teammates. Lafreniere is still outperforming expected goals by ~16%.


I would have, and did.



Why would you use their PDOs? Their offensive production has nothing to do with their goaltender's save percentage. It's actually Lafreniere who has had the slightly better puck luck, as he's been outperforming 5v5 expected goals at a higher rate:

Byfield at 5v5:
9 GF vs 7.93 xGF
+1.07 goals vs expected (13%)

Lafreniere at 5v5:
8 GF vs 6.88 xGF
+1.12 goals vs expected (16%)

Yeah, Byfield has a higher on ice sh%, but it's only because a much larger proportion of his on ice shot attempts are high danger chances. 23% of the King's 153 shot attempts with Byfield on the ice are high danger chances, vs only 16% of the Rangers 167 shot attempts with Laf on the ice.


More false statements from you. Byfield is very clearly outperforming Lafreniere. Just watch a game. He's driving play, and it shows in the numbers:

Byfield at 5v5:
133:55 TOI
2.69 p/60
3.55 xGF/60
60.5% xG%
+3.98 rel xG%

Lafreniere at 5v5:
154:46 TOI
1.51 p/60
2.61 xGF/60
52.6% xG%
-0.17 rel xG%

How is that for outperforming?

There you go, buddy

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

There you go, buddy

Thanks, I figured. He's a sensitive lil guy. I guess it's easier to just ignore someone pointing out the flaws in your argument.

 

[Herby]

But they weren't. You as a Kings fan might've taken Byfield (and Rangers fans might've taken Lafreniere), but find me something remotely objective, like a poll or some measure favoring Byfield.

Saying he has better upside is just a subjective generality. I can say the same in Lafreniere's favor. It means virtually nothing, and is plainly a weak argument.

Well some clowns on our board say I “hate” all the Kings prospects, so I guess I can’t win. Both a homer and a hater on the same forum, I guess I am doing something right. If I am biased towards Kings prospects, why did you and I spend so much time arguing about Alex Turcotte as a prospect? With me the Kings fan saying he was a terrible Top 5 pick with an Andrew Copp/Andrew Cogliano ceiling while you saying he was the best player in the 2019 draft, better than even Jack Hughes?

I don't really care what team drafts a prospect, it has no bearing whatsoever on how I feel about the prospect. Unfortunately that often leads to calls of homer (Faber, Kaliyev) and calls of hater (Turcotte, Byfield).

Sure, upside is subjective. But age and NHL games played aren't. Byfield is close to a year younger than Laf and has over 100 less NHL games, while also switching from C to winger. Laf was one of the oldest players in 2020 and Byfield was one of the youngest, had Laf been born a month earlier and Byfield a month later they would have been drafted in the 2019 and 2021 drafts. And while I do think many of my fellow Kings fans drastically overplay the size card (many automatically assuming he will be Tage Thompson), it does take bigger players a bit longer to develop.

To say that "nobody other than Kings fans" was taking QB over Laf is simply not true, you are acting like Laf was tearing it up in the NHL and QB was looking like, well, Alex Turcotte.

The reality of the situation is both teams failed to get a good ROI on their picks. Laf is 22 and looks nothing like the star winger #1 pick people expected and QB is a winger after failing as a C. If you are taking wingers that high in the draft you better be getting a real big difference maker, neither player is that.

 

[King'sPawn]

He's done all the things I was hoping to see. Happy to be wrong, and I was always rooting for his success, but what we saw last year was a very timid player who had a hard time making plays. People on the Kings board were sharing highlight reels of just normal, everyday routine plays he made because there was nothing else to show.

Yeah. Many (including myself) pointed out multiple times how his game has grown and how he was playing more confidently, if still deferring, when on Kopitar and Kempe's line.

People were getting frustrated with Byfield because he doesn't have flashy highlights and because he only scored 3 goals, neverminding the chances he did create.

What you saw last year was a player who spent years bouncing back and forth between the AHL and the bottom-6 because McLellan didn't trust him. It's no wonder his confidence was low for a stretch, but it was visible to some who were using his previous playstyle as a frame of reference, instead of expecting him to set the world on fire like many second overall picks.

It's a key element of my criticism of how the Kings develop players - particularly high-end forwards. They're forced to learn to grind and cycle before they're put in comfortable positions, like being a scorer. It's a rigid approach where, just like anything else, not everyone learns the same. Once they learn to grind, then they're put on a scoring line - THEN they need to learn to apply their natural skills again. It happened with Kaliyev, too.

Byfield is the by-product of the Kings development. He's very talented on his own, and skilled enough to be a good player, but in general it's a detriment to raw-skilled players.

 

[theVladiator]

...

He's very talented on his own, and skilled enough to be a good player, but in general it's a detriment to raw-skilled players.

To me your post reads like a praise to the Kings development philosophy. Raw-skilled players do not win games and Cups. Well-rounded players do.

 

[King'sPawn]

To me your post reads like a praise to the Kings development philosophy. Raw-skilled players do not win games and Cups. Well-rounded players do.

I think the Kings are great at developing certain forwards. But their ability to draw out and further enhance skilled players has been, in my opinion, lackluster.

Toffoli and Kempe are the best top-6 forwards they've drafted, developed, and kept as top-six players for a decent stretch since 2006. Players like Simmonds and Schenn were traded away fairly early. And their career highs in LA is 58 and 67 points respectively. These aren't regular all-stars.

And I don't even have a problem with rounding out the players' skillset. What I was saying in the Kings board is a player like Kaliyev could have learned to defend and grind while also playing in a scoring role, alongside Danault and Moore. Instead, he spent years playing next to Lizotte and Lemieux. Byfield was saddled alongside Athanasiou (who plays a skilled but selfish game) and Brown (who was on the verge of retirement.

My point? Develop the skills, but put them in more comfortable positions to hone their skills and complement their skillset. Don't put them in grinder roles by default, where they have less opportunity to ply their trade and build confidence.

I understand a lot of this is because McLellan trusts vets over prospects to win now, but in my opinion, they should have committed more time to rebuilding and made sure the pieces obtained during the rebuild have taken over a leadership role. That's a different conversation.

TL;DR I question the means more so than the end.

 

[theVladiator]

I think the Kings are great at developing certain forwards. But their ability to draw out and further enhance skilled players has been, in my opinion, lackluster.

Toffoli and Kempe are the best top-6 forwards they've drafted, developed, and kept as top-six players for a decent stretch since 2006. Players like Simmonds and Schenn were traded away fairly early. And their career highs in LA is 58 and 67 points respectively. These aren't regular all-stars.

And I don't even have a problem with rounding out the players' skillset. What I was saying in the Kings board is a player like Kaliyev could have learned to defend and grind while also playing in a scoring role, alongside Danault and Moore. Instead, he spent years playing next to Lizotte and Lemieux. Byfield was saddled alongside Athanasiou (who plays a skilled but selfish game) and Brown (who was on the verge of retirement.

My point? Develop the skills, but put them in more comfortable positions to hone their skills and complement their skillset. Don't put them in grinder roles by default, where they have less opportunity to ply their trade and build confidence.

I understand a lot of this is because McLellan trusts vets over prospects to win now, but in my opinion, they should have committed more time to rebuilding and made sure the pieces obtained during the rebuild have taken over a leadership role. That's a different conversation.

TL;DR I question the means more so than the end.

My point of view, it's hard to teach accountability without practicing it. You may not be thrilled with the level of players LA development is churning out, but are you sure you can pin that on the flaws with development, or is it the picks the team has made? Not trying to piss on the scouts either, the picks LA did have weren't all that early. Take Kaliev. He fell to the 2nd precisely because outside of scoring his game was absolute mess, and nobody wanted to take that project on with an earlier pick. He seems to be coming along fairly well for where he was picked. The only guy that seems to fall short of the expectations is maybe Turcotte, but his offensive game began to sputter even before he got into the Kings hands, and he wasn't rushed to play bottom 6 role in the NHL either, but brought along slowly through the AHL. I am more inclined to say in the hindsight he simply wasn't as good a prospect as he was ranked going into the draft, it happens.

TL;DR. I think LA development has done fairly well with the prospects they did manage to get their hands on in the draft.