C Nolan Patrick - Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (2017 Draft)

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landy92mack29

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I think he can reach the Ryan Kesler tier of strong second-line centermen.

In fact, I see a lot of Ryan Kesler in his game -- a big body, not very dynamic, good straight-line speed, a big shot, power elements, and able to capitalize in the crease. Aside from Kesler having blinders on these days when he goes down the ice and ignoring his open teammates, I see them as fairly similar players. Bob McKenzie stated in his preliminary report that most scouts see him as a second-line center. Kesler is a strong second-line center, but a second-line center nonetheless.

Patrick looked horrific at the 2016 Memorial Cup, though. He was invisible.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/long-season-even-longer-one-beckons-nolan-patrick/

There was talk after his 2015-16 campaign that he could slip in the draft as others start to assert themselves in their respective leagues. He hasn't played much this year, and others have stepped up.

He was playing through an injury that most people would sit out for. He's missed most of this year because of it. Also everyone on Brandon played bad, hasn't effected Provorov much.

His floor is Kesler. He's a mix of Benn, Kopitar and Getzlaf and imo will be a 70-80 point #1 shutdown C with a chance to be in the Selke conversation. Also if Patrick was playing in the OHL he'd be hyped by the media just as much as Tavares and Stamkos were.
 

JA

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He was playing through an injury that most people would sit out for. He's missed most of this year because of it.
While I commend him for having the courage to play through the injury, evidently it was an issue that bothered him; it could also have potential long-term effects. My assessment of his game factors in mostly matches played before the hernia. During the second half of last season, there was a debate about whether Pierre-Luc Dubois was a better prospect than Patrick. The consensus appears to have been that Patrick would have been ranked 5th to 10th in last year's draft. Healthy or not, he still does not display the kind of dynamic offensive ability or creativity that a bona fide first-line center is expected to possess.

With the injury, he became entirely ineffective. It has also opened the door to other concerns.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/junior/no-quit-nolan-played-through-hernia-394534711.html
Wheat Kings star Patrick 'getting close' to returning to WHL champions
By: Mike Sawatzky
Posted: 09/23/2016 4:00 AM | Last Modified: 09/23/2016 7:47 AM

...

Patrick was injured in Brandon’s 4-2 win over the Red Deer Rebels in Game 4 of the WHL’s Eastern Conference final April 27. He registered two assists in that game and then, two nights later, fired a hat trick and added two helpers as the Wheat Kings clinched a berth in the league final with a 5-2 win in Game 5.

How’s that for playing hurt?

He apparently hid the pain in his abdomen exceptionally well.

...

Patrick admits he had no sense of how serious the injury was but had no interest in sitting out.

"I was in quite a bit of pain," he said. "It happened in Game 4 of the Red Deer series. Then, I kinda played through it during the league final. It’s kinda tough to say no to playing."

After the season was over, Patrick took a two-week break before returning to off-season workouts. When the injury showed no improvement, he consulted with doctors who diagnosed the problem and said a surgical repair was necessary.

For some, it’s the sort of situation that triggers a debate about how much is too much.

...
One has to wonder if playing through a sports hernia will have any lasting effects on his career. Not only did he play through it, but he ran into complications with it early this season.

https://www.nhl.com/news/a-rated-prospect-nolan-patrick-considered-day-to-day/c-282672696
2017 Draft: Nolan Patrick out with upper-body injury
A-rated prospect considered day to day, will be re-evaluated Saturday
by Mike G. Morreale @mikemorrealeNHL / NHL.com Staff Writer
October 14th, 2016

Brandon center Nolan Patrick, a candidate to be the first pick of the 2017 NHL Draft, is day to day because of an upper-body injury, a team spokesman said Friday.

Patrick, an A-rated skater on NHL Central Scouting's preliminary players to watch list, is out against Prince Albert at Westman Place in Brandon, Manitoba, on Friday. He will be re-evaluated Saturday, when Brandon is scheduled to play at Prince Albert.

...
https://www.nhl.com/news/nolan-patrick-to-miss-a-couple-more-weeks/c-283799348
2017 Draft: Nolan Patrick out 2-3 more weeks
Projected top pick remains sidelined with upper-body injury sustained six games into Western Hockey League season
by Mike G. Morreale @mikemorrealeNHL / NHL.com Staff Writer
November 16th, 2016


...

"I'm skating on my own right now," Patrick said. "I just starting getting back on the ice (this week) and doing edge work and skill stuff like that, but nothing too intense yet. Every day it gets a little better, so I'm hopeful. This was out of my control, and it's killing me not to be out there with my teammates."

Dan Marr, the director of NHL Central Scouting, believes recovery from this type of condition has no set timeline.

"The condition is unfortunate in that it occurred during Patrick's draft year, but it really doesn't influence his draft status as NHL clubs know him very well as a player and he'll remain one of the top draft prospects for 2017," Marr said. "It's expected that Nolan will fully recover, and NHL teams know that this type of injury often has no predictable timeline. He'll be ready when he's ready."

...

"It was a combination of maybe coming back to early and overcompensating a bit," Patrick said. "My muscles weren't really training to move how they're supposed to after the surgery. I think I was still tight in certain areas and so I was overcompensating.

"It's a matter of training the muscles on how they should function."

...
Two prominent NHL players who played through sports hernias during the 2014-15 Stanley Cup Playoffs are Andrew Ladd and Ryan Getzlaf. One can argue that neither of them have looked the same since then. Ladd's was more severe, requiring off-season surgery.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2016/1/17/10773884/sports-hernia-recovery-could-be-hurting-andrew-ladd
Sports Hernia Recovery Could Be Hurting Andrew Ladd
The Jets captain has struggled mightily this season. Could it be due to the lingering effects of the sports hernia surgery he underwent in the offseason? How have other star players looked after the procedure?
by JacobStoller Jan 17, 2016, 7:30am EST

Andrew Ladd hasn't been the same this year. He hasn't been one of the Jets best players, night in and night out. His poor play is coming at the worst of times for him and for Jets management. With the trade deadline just over a month away, the pending UFA remains unsigned. For a player that is trying to earn a new contract, you'd expect to see a lot more than what Andrew Ladd has brought to the table.

While Ladd is asking for a long-term extension (reportedly around 6 years) in contract negotiations, his performance isn't pleading his case very well. Yes, on the last few scoresheets Ladd has put a Band-Aid over his disappointing season. He has 5 assists in his last 6 contests, but has been held without a goal for the last 11 games. It's not like Ladd hasn't been the same for just spurts of this season. Ladd hasn't been himself for a little while, dating back to the end of last season.

Last year in the Jets first round playoff series against the Anaheim Ducks, Ladd was widely criticized for his performance. He looked sluggish and banged up, and was practically invisible most of the games.

Something was evidently not right with the Jets captain. It was revealed after the series that Ladd had suffered a sports hernia and was playing through it during the last part of the season. Since around that point, Ladd's production has taken a significant drop off. Could his struggles be due to lingering effects from the sports hernia surgery he's recovering from?

...

According to a study done by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, players who have played over 7 full seasons (Ladd has 11 in the NHL under his belt) return from sports hernia injuries with a significant decrease in their overall performance levels.

...

Another example, Ladd's junior teammate Ryan Getzlaf, also had a sports hernia at the end of last season. He did not need surgery, but the effects of the injury are taking a huge toll on his production as well. Getzlaf is a surefire NHL superstar and has been amongst the best in the league over the last couple of years. He has 3 goals so far this season. He's on pace for under 10.

Both Ladd and Getzlaf have played well over 7 seasons in the NHL, and both are fitting into the criteria of veteran players having production drop-offs after suffering a sports hernia.

...
Many consider Patrick to be a future second-line center in the NHL on the condition that he is entirely healthy, but a problematic sports hernia might be another concern. Some players return and are fine, but Nolan hasn't even been drafted yet and has mishandled his injury. To spend several weeks active and in pain with a sports hernia is a serious mistake. Apparently, he didn't tell anyone about it, although his on-ice performance spoke volumes; furthermore, he has missed a significant part of the current season with complications.

http://sportsmedicineimaging.com/topics/sports-hernia/
Sports Hernia
3 years ago
by John Read

...

‘Sports hernia’ is a condition of chronic exercise-related supra-inguinal groin pain which is associated with an incipient direct bulge of the inguinal wall whenever the abdominal muscles contract forcefully. This limits athletic performance and can be a ‘career-ending’ injury.

...

Symptoms

Sports that are most often affected involve kicking and/or rapid acceleration with an accompanying sudden change in direction (e.g. soccer, rugby, AFL, ice hockey, martial arts). The pain develops during exercise, is generally unilateral but occasionally bilateral, and is typically located in the supra-inguinal portion of lower abdomen lateral to rectus abdominis, sometimes radiating to the testis (Fig 1, solid arrows). Importantly, it does not reach the pelvic midline, but can often radiate into the medial thigh along the path of adductor longus (Fig 1, dotted arrows). Sports hernia pain is often aggravated by sudden acceleration, twisting and turning, cutting and kicking, coughing and/or sneezing, and sit-ups. The pain generally persists after a game, with accompanying stiffness and difficulty getting out of bed the following day. In most cases, the initial onset is insidious. However, in about one third of cases, the patient recalls a sudden ‘tearing’ sensation at the time of initial symptom onset [1]. Despite any period of rest or lay-off, Sports hernia pain returns immediately and with full force upon resumption of sport.

Physical findings

The overwhelming majority of patients are young adult males. Objective physical examination findings are typically sparse. A palpable cough impulse is either weak or absent. A subtle bulge in skin surface contour can occasionally be seen over the affected inguinal region when observed from above with the patient standing. Pain may be evoked with a resisted abdominal ‘crunch’ and tenderness elicited most commonly over the conjoint tendon immediately superomedial to pubic tubercle. Many patients also exhibit tenderness over the ipsilateral adductor longus origin and/or have a positive adductor ‘squeeze’ test in bent knee position (pain and inhibition when asked to squeeze the legs together against resistance).

...
Some first-hand HF comments about sports hernias:
This type of injury if not properly treated will be a chronic issue in the future. Unlike other types of injuries where one can tough-it-out, this injury is debilitating. Not only is it painful but makes it virtually impossible play through.
I've had this injury reoccur for the past three seasons and it gets worst every time. At the end of the season last May I couldn't even walk upright and getting out of a bed took extra measures to lessen the pain.
I had a double hernia and was fine without surgery. Basically what the doctor said was that you can be more certain of avoiding complications through surgery, but most people can live and play sports without treatment. If you are only experiencing a bit of tenderness and a small bulge, there is nothing to be seriously concerned about. If it becomes aggravated and requires surgery, you will know by the sudden increase in pain and should go to the hospital IMMEDIATELY.

After a couple weeks the swelling went down and life was back to normal. Definitely take it easy, though, you don't want to make matters any worse by pushing yourself. Hockey in particular tends to cause sports hernias, so you absolutely want to stay off skates until you feel back to normal.
Just work on the muscles there and get it checked out, one of my teamates had a sports herenia, he to walk bent over for a week.
It's just my opinion, but this is bad advice.

Until you get a diagnosis, if it hurts to work the muscle, don't work it. If it hurts to stretch the muscle, don't stretch it.

I've been suffering from similar symptoms for over four months now, only my problem started in the groin and worked its way into the lower abdominal region. My doctor ruled out a hernia, and since then I've seen physical therapists, a massage therapist, a chiropractor, and two orthopaedic specialists. While none of them can figure out what's wrong with me, all have agreed that it's a VERY BAD IDEA to put any undue stress on the injury.
As with any player who suffers a major injury, I think that there should be an awareness of potential problems in the future. He isn't exactly a player with a clean medical record, and he's not a very dynamic player to begin with.
 
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Daximus

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He definitely received some bad information about how to handle his injury. Seems they are being extra precocious this year with it. With that being sad it's much easier to recover from sports hernias at a young age. Ladd is much older and his body has been through quite a bit more than Patricks which is why he is having a hard time recovering and may never be the same.
I disagree that Patrick isn't dynamic. You dont put up 100+ points in the WHL as a 17 year old without being dynamic.
 

JA

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He was playing through an injury that most people would sit out for. He's missed most of this year because of it. Also everyone on Brandon played bad, hasn't effected Provorov much.

His floor is Kesler. He's a mix of Benn, Kopitar and Getzlaf and imo will be a 70-80 point #1 shutdown C with a chance to be in the Selke conversation. Also if Patrick was playing in the OHL he'd be hyped by the media just as much as Tavares and Stamkos were.
Kesler was a two-time Selke Trophy finalist and one-time Selke Trophy winner between 2008-09 and 2010-11. He was a 70-point player in two of those three seasons.

The only person that stood in his way to the Selke Trophy in both 2008-09 and 2009-10 was Pavel Datsyuk.

That is far closer to Patrick's ceiling than his floor.

Having watched him as the second-line center of my hometown team, I see major similarities in his skill set and Nolan Patrick's.

Neither of them are great lateral skaters, although Kesler might be faster and more powerful overall; both create their offense with a north-south game, use their bodies to their advantage, and can shoot the puck quite well. They tend to station themselves in similar positions. When he was on his game, Kesler could bury the puck confidently with a long-range wrist shot or a one-timer. In 2009-10, he demonstrated his playmaking abilities and amassed 50 assists before regressing as a playmaker ever since due to what many perceive merely as selfishness with the puck.
He definitely received some bad information about how to handle his injury. Seems they are being extra precocious this year with it. With that being sad it's much easier to recover from sports hernias at a young age. Ladd is much older and his body has been through quite a bit more than Patricks which is why he is having a hard time recovering and may never be the same.
I disagree that Patrick isn't dynamic. You dont put up 100+ points in the WHL as a 17 year old without being dynamic.
Many of those points were scored in the same fashion that Kesler tends to produce at the NHL level. I don't think of Kesler as dynamic.



No assist highlights here for Kesler, unfortunately, but I see many similarities in the way that they generate offense.

I suppose these are the first few results I get in a search for Kesler assists:



 
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ahmon

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Yeah I don't see the Kesler-Patrick comparison.

Patrick can slow the game down and his playmaking and puck distribution is very good.

Kesler was much more of a checking C who can score some goals. His speed was his main advantage.

Nolan Patrick is getting underrated. Even Sam Reinhart, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins never were called 2nd line Cs before their draft. And Patrick is better than both, imo.
 

Icebreakers

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Yeah I don't see the Kesler-Patrick comparison.

Patrick can slow the game down and his playmaking and puck distribution is very good.

Kesler was much more of a checking C who can score some goals. His speed was his main advantage.

Nolan Patrick is getting underrated. Even Sam Reinhart, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins never were called 2nd line Cs before their draft. And Patrick is better than both, imo.

lol But Reinhart and RNH 2nd line C projections were right. Neither of them look like they have what it takes to be a 1C.
 

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lol But Reinhart and RNH 2nd line C projections were right. Neither of them look like they have what it takes to be a 1C.

I just think people have a hard time evaluating WHL prospects. WHL guys are always flying under the radar and the league itself tends to get scouted less than the OHL and Q.

Neither of those guys were as good as Patrick IMO. I think his floor is a 2nd line C. He could absolutely become a top line center though. He's probably actually really comparable to Ryan Johansen in that people aren't really sure about his trajectory. Though I think he is a much harder worker than Johansen and has a much higher offensive potential.
 

BigRangy

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I think one of the reasons that the projections have been so conservative with Patrick is the the two biggest center prospects to come out of the WHL lately have stalled/slowed in their development and haven't taken all the steps they were expected to.

RNH's first year was incredible, but he never really took the next step.

Reinhart had back to back great performances at the WJC and was great in junior but is still somewhat of a tease when you look at his NHL production. Even when you watch him play, you think to yourself "How is this guy not scoring 60 points every year?"

I don't think scouts want to go too far out there for fear of getting burned.
 

Arizonan God

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lol But Reinhart and RNH 2nd line C projections were right. Neither of them look like they have what it takes to be a 1C.

I mean, Reinhart will always be a # 2 C on Buffalo, but he has the potential to be a 2 way 60-70 point centre. That's a # 1 C on a lot of teams
 

Mikos87

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I'd say Nolan Patrick ends up as a Sean Monahan type of player. Which is a very good one, but maybe a step below elite until proven otherwise in the playoffs.
 

ijuka

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In my opinion, he's going to be a middling second liner. Probably slightly worse than RNH as a center.
 

Daximus

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In my opinion, he's going to be a middling second liner. Probably slightly worse than RNH as a center.

I think his offensive potential is much higher than RNH. Think he'll easily surpass RNH in that regard.
 

L13

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What a nightmare scenario.


Man his handlers REALLY dropped the ball with him last year.
:shakehead

It would be terrible if his premature return from injury affected his health in the long term, but if you're simply referring to his draft stock, honestly, who cares? Maybe he'll get a slightly less lucrative ELC as a top-10 pick than as the 1st overall, but the difference will be in the bonuses, not the base salary, and, like. He'll still get drafted just the same, and most likely by a better team.

Is there a reason other than ego he should care whether he goes 1st overall or 3rd or 4th? (This is an honest question.)
 

Daximus

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It would be terrible if his premature return from injury affected his health in the long term, but if you're simply referring to his draft stock, honestly, who cares? Maybe he'll get a slightly less lucrative ELC as a top-10 pick than as the 1st overall, but the difference will be in the bonuses, not the base salary, and, like. He'll still get drafted just the same, and most likely by a better team.

Is there a reason other than ego he should care whether he goes 1st overall or 3rd or 4th? (This is an honest question.)

Max ELC and bonuses is really the only reason. Can't see him going to a much better team if he slips a couple spots. Only place I don't want him to go, personally, is Vegas.
 

nowhereman

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In my opinion, he's going to be a middling second liner. Probably slightly worse than RNH as a center.
Have you ever seen this kid play? Nothing about his game screams "middling" 2nd liner.

He'll be closer to Toews/Kopitar than RNH. Probably the most underrated #1 pick I've seen in years.
 

Daximus

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It's almost as if no one has watched him other than maybe the mem cup where he was hurt.

Also if you've seen Patrick and Hischier play no one would take Hischier over him. Patrick isn't falling

I've seen both play many many times and I'm on the fence. They both have very different games that are both projectable as 1st line Centers IMO. If I was awarded the 1st overall pick I'd be thinking long and hard about who I take.
 
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