C Nolan Patrick - Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (2017 Draft)

[Holden Caulfield]

I actually thought we would have another down season due to the youth. Many think we should be making major headway already but we're the youngest team in the league. Little, Perreault, Armia, Myers and Matthias out hurts too.
We will be a bubble team for this season for sure. Next season is where I think we see some real growth.

For the 6th straight year this is the same refrain being used. Wonder when people finally start getting sick of it?

 

[Daximus]

Daximus

For the 6th straight year this is the same refrain being used. Wonder when people finally start getting sick of it?

I was saying this since the start of last season. Little, Wheeler, Ladd and Buff were never a strong enough core to get it done. They'll be support to our young core coming up. This season was always going to have some growing pains. Us managing to compete was unforseen by many.

 

[McKappa]

For the 6th straight year this is the same refrain being used. Wonder when people finally start getting sick of it?

Ask us

 

[93LEAFS]

Interesting quote from a scout about Patrick, and similar to what I've been saying for awhile, the face he's a late birthday helps him overcome the typical damage a long-term injury would cause to his stock due to having a 2 season track record.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/scouts-take-halifax-mooseheads-winger-maxime-fortier/

Said one whose team might wind up in the lottery mix: “There’d probably be more questions if he was a '99 birthday, but the fact is he’s a late birthday so he’s already had two full years in the league. There’s a clear idea of what he is as a player. Still everyone is going to want to see him and make sure [the injury] isn’t having any sort of lasting effect. The [WHL region scouts] are going to take out leases on apartments in Brandon."

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He's probably going to be the consensus #1 because almost all the top prospects have been injured this season, so no one has really gained any ground on anyone.

The draft isn't about who is the consensus on the scout's list. Its a lot of the time about which players fits for a team or which team has a certain player higher or lower than other teams. Most people thought last year's draft was 1-2-3 with Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi, but Columbus didn't, so Dubois went third.

I wouldn't doubt that a team like Buffalo could prefer a defenseman. Maybe Detroit would want a defenseman, although they need help everywhere. Maybe Toronto would want a defenseman. Colorado might want a defenseman. Arizona might want a defenseman. Then there's also a chance that a team really likes Vilardi or doesn't like Patrick. Columbus preferred Dubois to Puljujarvi.

 

[Daximus]

He's probably going to be the consensus #1 because almost all the top prospects have been injured this season, so no one has really gained any ground on anyone.

The draft isn't about who is the consensus on the scout's list. Its a lot of the time about which players fits for a team or which team has a certain player higher or lower than other teams. Most people thought last year's draft was 1-2-3 with Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi, but Columbus didn't, so Dubois went third.

I wouldn't doubt that a team like Buffalo could prefer a defenseman. Maybe Detroit would want a defenseman, although they need help everywhere. Maybe Toronto would want a defenseman. Colorado might want a defenseman. Arizona might want a defenseman. Then there's also a chance that a team really likes Vilardi or doesn't like Patrick. Columbus preferred Dubois to Puljujarvi.

I think Hischier is gaining ground. 2nd in points, 3rd in goals, 5th in assists, 1st in shorthanded goals, 3rd in game winners, 4th in PPG, 50% on the dot in the Q.

For reference we will use Patrick's last season where he finished 5th in WHL points, 8th in goals, 4th in assists, not top 100 in shorthanded goals, 15th in game winners, 7th in PPG, WHL doesn't publish faceoff data so I'm not sure how he did.

Pretty damn good stats for a Swiss import. The kind of stats you'd hope for a challenger. They are only 4 months difference in age so it's not to bad of an age gap. Hoepfully Patrick is back soon to give us a better body of work to compare.

Patrick was on a 102 point pace in 68 games before his injury (WHL plays 72)
Hischier is currently on a 117 point pace in 68 games.
Vilardi on a 94 point pace in 68 games.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think Hischier is gaining ground. 2nd in points, 3rd in goals, 5th in assists, 1st in shorthanded goals, 3rd in game winners, 4th in PPG, 50% on the dot in the Q.

For reference we will use Patrick's last season where he finished 5th in WHL points, 8th in goals, 4th in assists, not top 100 in shorthanded goals, 15th in game winners, 7th in PPG, WHL doesn't publish faceoff data so I'm not sure how he did.

Pretty damn good stats for a Swiss import. The kind of stats you'd hope for a challenger. They are only 4 months difference in age so it's not to bad of an age gap. Hoepfully Patrick is back soon to give us a better body of work to compare.

Patrick was on a 102 point pace in 68 games before his injury (WHL plays 72)
Hischier is currently on a 117 point pace in 68 games.
Vilardi on a 94 point pace in 68 games.

I was talking about Patrick, Liljegren and Vilardi. I don't think Hischier is a top 5 talent.

 

[Daximus]

I was talking about Patrick, Liljegren and Vilardi. I don't think Hischier is a top 5 talent.

I know which is why I'm making the case that he is, probably a top 3 talent at that. No one thinks so but I don't know why. He has everything you want in a top 3 pick. Skating, speed, IQ, shot, vision. What does the kid have to do to get recognized? Score 3 PPG on his way to a 204 point season, with a 2PPG Q Championship and a 2PPG Mem Cup win?

 

[leaflover]

Anyone have an injury update for Patrick?
I already have tickets to Brandon's games vs Kelowna and Kamloops and I was really hoping to see Patrick and Foote face one another.

 

[Daximus]

Daximus

Anyone have an injury update for Patrick?
I already have tickets to Brandon's games vs Kelowna and Kamloops and I was really hoping to see Patrick and Foote face one another.

Can't see him being back for either. I don't think he'll be back until mid December.

 

[sbtatter]

Anyone have an injury update for Patrick?
I already have tickets to Brandon's games vs Kelowna and Kamloops and I was really hoping to see Patrick and Foote face one another.

He isn't with the team for this road trip, just as well because coming off an injury the last thing he needs is playing 7 games in 11 days, and 4947 km of traveling.....

 

[leaflover]

Can't see him being back for either. I don't think he'll be back until mid December.

Okay thanks.
Does Brandon have any good looking rookies I should watch for?

 

[Deif]

Okay thanks.
Does Brandon have any good looking rookies I should watch for?

Stelio Mattheos, could be a 1st rounder in 17, former WHL 1st overall pick

Already drafted players, Kaspick/Klague

I'm fond of Gutenberg and Lewis.

 

[PatrickMcC]

whats his nhl player comparable?

also whats his ceiling?

 

[lawrence]

whats his nhl player comparable?

also whats his ceiling?

1st line Centreman. Probably in the same tier as a Henrik Sedin or Jason Spezza level.

 

[Luck 6]

1st line Centreman. Probably in the same tier as a Henrik Sedin or Jason Spezza level.

Sedin averaged above PPG for an 8 year stretch. He also won a Hart and Art Ross in that stretch.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Nolan projects to be anything close to that.

 

[JA]

whats his nhl player comparable?

also whats his ceiling?

I think he can reach the Ryan Kesler tier of strong second-line centermen.

In fact, I see a lot of Ryan Kesler in his game -- a big body, not very dynamic, good straight-line speed, a big shot, power elements, and able to capitalize in the crease. Aside from Kesler having blinders on these days when he goes down the ice and ignoring his open teammates, I see them as fairly similar players. Bob McKenzie stated in his preliminary report that most scouts see him as a second-line center. Kesler is a strong second-line center, but a second-line center nonetheless.

Patrick looked horrific at the 2016 Memorial Cup, though. He was invisible.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/long-season-even-longer-one-beckons-nolan-patrick/

After a long season, an even longer one awaits Nolan Patrick
2017 NHL draft eligible Nolan Patrick, excited for the chance at winning the MasterCard Memorial Cup at such a young age, and with such a great group of guys in Brandon.
Damien Cox May 26, 2016, 9:27 PM

...

Here at the MasterCard Memorial Cup, however, by his own admission, Patrick was “average at best,” and so were the Wheat Kings, who crashed and burned with three straight losses to be the first team eliminated.

...

Older players like Ivan Provorov, captain Macoy Erkamps, Tim McGauley and John Quenneville were supposed to lead this Brandon team in this tournament, not the 17-year-old Patrick. But none played particularly well, although Quenneville scored a spectacular between-the-legs goal early in the tournament against Rouyn-Noranda.

Still, there was a lot of focus on Patrick, and he wasn’t able to score at all in the tournament or assert himself in any of the games, ending up with just one assist and 11 shots in three games for a Brandon team that only scored five goals in the tournament. Patrick seemed uncertain at times, not surprising in an event where much older players usually dominate.

...

There was talk after his 2015-16 campaign that he could slip in the draft as others start to assert themselves in their respective leagues. He hasn't played much this year, and others have stepped up.

1 point and -2 in the tournament.

Can't say that I'm surprised or disappointed at his Mem. Cup performance. I don't rate this player as high as others. Not going 1OA next year will be the best thing for him, as it will take the pressure off of immediately making the jump to the NHL as #1OAs tend to do...another 2 years in junior would be perfect for him...spending some time in the AHL after that would be an added bonus.

If he slips next year a bit I can see him getting the 4th full OHL year. Sam Reinhart was in a very similar position as a late birthday returning after a big year, and didn't wow quite as much as expected. Due to this he got the 4th year. I wouldn't bet on Patrick doing it, but I can see a situation where it happens. His teams is losing alot of talents that will make this years numbers hard to replicate. Not really seeing anyone in 2017 though to really steal his luster, atleast out of NA based prospects.

 

[TimeZone]

I think he can reach the Ryan Kesler tier of strong second-line centermen.

In fact, I see a lot of Ryan Kesler in his game.

So, his ceiling is a second line C? I very much doubt that.

 

[JA]

So, his ceiling is a second line C? I very much doubt that.

http://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-pre-season-ranking-the-nolan-patrick-draft-1.567410

McKenzie's pre-season ranking: The 'Nolan Patrick Draft'
By Bob McKenzie
Sep 22

...

Former Wheat King head coach and general manager Kelly McCrimmon, who is now assistant general manager of the NHL expansion team in Las Vegas (which begins play next season and will have the third best odds in the 2017 draft lottery and pick no lower than sixth overall) fervently believes Patrick has what it takes to be a No. 1 centre in the NHL.

While some of the scouts surveyed by TSN do not discount Patrick evolving into that role, the consensus view is Patrick is projected more as a second-line NHL centre and doesn't have the same “wow” factor as McDavid, Eichel and Matthews.

"He's going to be a good, maybe very good, NHL player," one scout said, "but he isn't a dynamic player. His skating isn't bad but he's not dynamic like those others [McDavid, Eichel and Matthews]."

...

Patrick's birthday is Sept. 19, so he was just four days off being eligible for last season's draft. Had he been available last June, where would he slot amongst the best players of a very strong draft class, like Matthews, Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljujarvi and Pierre-Luc Dubois, among others?

The consensus amongst scouts surveyed by TSN is that Patrick wouldn't have displaced any of the top four picks in last year's draft. Depending on the scout, they retroactively rank Patrick anywhere between No. 5 and 10, based on his 2015-16 season.

...

Ryan Kesler is a great second-line center, and on some teams would be a fringe first-line center. He possesses a lot of the same skills as Patrick does and generates offense in a lot of the same ways. When I watch Patrick, I do not see a player with good potential to be a first-line NHL centerman -- I see a player with an unlikely chance. I think he will be a safe investment and a necessary building block, but he won't be the franchise, first-line player that teams strive for.

 

[bossram]

So, his ceiling is a second line C? I very much doubt that.

Well for a time, Kesler was a 1C calibre player. Was putting up 60-75 points with excellent two-way ability, PP/PK value. Just behind Henrik. Then he settled in as a high-end 2C later.

That's definitely not a bad player. You probably want to aim higher at 1st overall, but if you think he's a sure bet to be that kind of player, then maybe you go for it.

Personally I'd prefer more pure upside, someone like Hischier. But there's more risk there too.

 

[TimeZone]

http://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-pre-season-ranking-the-nolan-patrick-draft-1.567410

Ryan Kesler is a great second-line center, and on some teams would be a fringe first-line center. He possesses a lot of the same skills as Patrick does and generates offense in a lot of the same ways. When I watch Patrick, I do not see a player with good potential to be a first-line NHL centerman -- I see a player with an unlikely chance. I think he will be a safe investment and a necessary building block, but he won't be the franchise, first-line player that teams strive for.

What a sad Draft year this must be at the top.

 

[1Gold Standard]

I hope whatever team drafts Patrick is smart and sends him back to junior next year... even if he goes 1st. in the draft.

 

[Daximus]

He plays more like a Jamie Benn at Center than Kesler in my opinion. His offensive potential is much higher than Keslers ever was.

 

[93LEAFS]

I hope whatever team drafts Patrick is smart and sends him back to junior next year... even if he goes 1st. in the draft.

I doubt if he goes #1 he'll go back. I can't think of the last forward drafted 1OA who has. There are unique situations such as Lindros (holdout) and Ovi (lockout) but past that I think the last one was Sundin, and for a CHL guy it was Modano.

I hope if he ends up with Vegas they keep him (or whoever they take) away from an expansion team. Looking at the history of high picks who start year 1 on an expansion team is not great.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I feel like he's a mix between Tavares and J Staal. He's definitely got top line potential but might end up falling short.