C Nolan Patrick - Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (2017 Draft)

[Reddwit]

I had hernia surgery in the spring and it was no fun at all, getting in and out of bed (big bed against a wall) was awful for like 3 weeks

Was it laproscopic? I was just having this conversation with a friend of mine who has had two hernia surgeries in the past handful of years (from mid to late 20s). The first was open surgery and he said it was painful as ****. The second was laproscopic and he said he kept on having to remind himself to take it easy because the pain was minimal.

 

[Hansen]

Was it laproscopic? I was just having this conversation with a friend of mine who has had two hernia surgeries in the past handful of years (from mid to late 20s). The first was open surgery and he said it was painful as ****. The second was laproscopic and he said he kept on having to remind himself to take it easy because the pain was minimal.

Laproscopic. The pain was minimal after the first few days but I could definitely feel the biomesh in there and there was a pulling sensation on my entire abdominal core whenever the muscles were used. I felt like I just couldn't use it at all to get up from lying down so getting in and out of bed was awful.

Also had a minor infection scare but it was surface and was gone very quickly.

Took quite a while to recover fully and I don't think I would have been able to work out really for a month and a half after

 

[Daximus]

Laproscopic. The pain was minimal after the first few days but I could definitely feel the biomesh in there and there was a pulling sensation on my entire abdominal core whenever the muscles were used. I felt like I just couldn't use it at all to get up from lying down so getting in and out of bed was awful.

Also had a minor infection scare but it was surface and was gone very quickly.

Took quite a while to recover fully and I don't think I would have been able to work out really for a month and a half after

I think that is exactly why Patrick is taking so long. Not only making sure he is fully healed but taking the time to really work out and make sure he can return without getting injured again.

 

[JA]

I put together some highlights from the past season.

I have decided to take a look at how many of Patrick's assists were primary and secondary; initially, I had hoped to count them from the videos by KillEmAll83 and bigwhite06, but I noticed that only 62 out of the 102 points scored by Patrick during the 2015-16 regular season are featured in this video -- the end of the video features playoff points. Of the 62 regular season points, 38 goals, 23 primary assists and one secondary assist were featured in the video. I definitely understand if this was for the sake of keeping the video concise.

Only three goals are missing, but 37 assists are missing. As such, I decided to take a look at the video vault and investigate.

It appears that 12 games from the first half of the 2015-16 Wheat Kings season in which Patrick recorded at least one assist are missing from the WHL's video database. This accounts for 17 of those assists. 44 of Patrick's assists appear to be available on video.

Missing games:

[collapse=missing_games]2016-02-05

2015-12-08

2015-12-04

2015-12-02

2015-11-07

2015-10-28

2015-10-27

2015-10-23

2015-10-21

2015-10-17

2015-10-03

2015-10-02[/collapse]
I just reviewed video of all of Patrick's 2015-16 playoff assists. He scored 9 primary assists and 8 secondary assists in 21 games. 52.9% of Patrick's playoff assists were primary assists. All of his playoff points are available on video, so I counted these manually.

Upon reviewing the 44 available assists from Patrick's 2015-16 regular season, there was one that I would not consider to be an assist at all (it was recorded officially as a secondary assist); of the 43 legitimate assists, 29 were primaries and 14 were secondaries. I noticed, however, that the score sheets were surprisingly accurate with only a few errors on Patrick's assists.

There was only one other error aside from the phantom assist; it was, however, a major error. Jayce Hawryluk's supposed 32nd goal, scored on March 2, 2016 against the Saskatoon Blades, was officially credited as "Goal: Hawryluk; Assist 1: Patrick; Assist 2: Coulter." The log should read "Goal: Coulter; Assist 1: Hawryluk; Assist 2: Patrick."

His 2015-16 official scoring log indicates that he scored 37 primaries, 24 secondaries last season, which would mean that 60.5% of his assists were primaries; this includes the one assist (a secondary assist) I felt should not have counted on Jayce Hawryluk's 37th goal of the season on March 5, 2016, as well as a secondary assist that was credited as a primary assist on March 2, 2016.

The score sheets from the 12 missing games indicate that Patrick scored 8 primaries, 9 secondaries in those matches. Officially, Patrick scored 37 primaries, 24 secondaries. 60.5% of his assists were primary assists. If we calculate it minus the phantom March 5, 2016 assist and correctly identify the March 2, 2016 assist on "Hawryluk's 32nd" as a secondary assist -- thus, 36 primaries, 24 secondaries -- it's 60% that were primary assists. One can assume, based on the 43 goals that I checked, that the score sheets for Brandon last season are fairly accurate. Give or take a potential error or two, ~60% of Patrick's assists in the 2015-16 regular season were primary assists. This is a rate of 0.50 primary assists per game (36 / 72).

For reference:

Having counted the primary assists from the points reel above, 19 of Hischier's 25 assists so far this season are primary assists -- 76%. This is a rate of 0.61 primary assists per game (19 / 31).

...

We also must account for context -- Hischier's team this year being the youngest team in the CHL, and Patrick's last season being a championship-caliber team. One of the 2016 WHL Finals commentators made the comment that many of the forwards on the Wheat Kings knew how to always find open space to receive a pass; every time they had the puck, thus, they were dangerous to the opposition. The team as a whole was extremely gifted offensively.

Depending on how his second half goes, one might be able to say that Hischier is doing more heavy-lifting for his team than Patrick did last season. One wonders if Patrick might even regress with the loss of some of the Wheat Kings' talent.

Hischier has contributed to 48 of Halifax's 127 goals so far this season -- 37.7%.

Patrick contributed to 102 of Brandon's 316 goals last season -- 32.2%. If we omit the phantom assist and attribute to him 101 points, it becomes 31.9%.

For what it's worth, #19 has contributed towards 9 of the 20 goals Bdn scored in his 6 games this season, or 45%

Fair, although I think that the sample size is too small to be conclusive.

Here's another figure. Hischier had a slow start to the season with just 3 goals, 8 points in his first 10 games of the season. This was what many refer to as his adjustment period to the QMJHL. The Mooseheads scored 37 goals in the first 10 games of the season. They scored at a rate of 3.7 goals per game, or a pace of 114 goals as a team over 31 games.

From Game 11 onward, he has contributed to 40 of the 90 goals scored by the entire Halifax Mooseheads roster. From October 16, 2016 (Game 11) to his most recent game on December 10, 2016 (Game 31) -- a span of 21 games -- Hischier has contributed to 44.4% of Halifax's goals. The team scored at a rate of 4.2 goals per game in those 21 games, or a pace of 132 goals over 31 games; the team's overall production increased significantly, and Hischier was an enormous reason for it.

In his hottest stretch of the season, a 13-game stretch between October 26 and November 27, 2016, he contributed to 32 of the Mooseheads' 63 goals. That's 50.79% of their production during that period.

Hischier is more important to the Mooseheads than Patrick is to the Wheat Kings. He creates a greater percentage of his team's production compared to Patrick; keeping in mind context -- Hischier playing for the youngest team in the CHL and Patrick playing for the 2015-16 WHL Champions last season -- Hischier is having the more impressive season.

Hischier has 42 primary points (23 goals, 19 primary assists) so far this season in 31 games. That is a pace of 97 primary points in 72 games (the QMJHL season is 68 games long, but this is a direct comparison with Patrick's 2015-16 season). Hischier's primary production is directly responsible for 33.0% of the Mooseheads' goals this season so far (127 goals). Only 6 of Hischier's points this year are secondary points. Two of those secondaries occurred during the adjustment period at the start of the season. From October 16, 2016 (Game 11) to the most recent game (Game 31), Hischier's primary production factored into 36 of Halifax's 90 goals -- 40% of the entire team's production since October 16, 2016 comes from his primary production.

Patrick's legitimate 77 primary points last season (41 goals, 36 primary assists) were directly responsible for 24.3% of the Wheat Kings' production last season (316 goals). 24 of Patrick's legitimate points last year were secondary points.

Here is a breakdown of Hischier's primary points by type (ES, PP, SH) so far in 31 games played:

23 even strength, 16 powerplay, 3 shorthanded. 42 primary points so far.

Pace over 72 games (note: the Q plays 68):

53 even strength, 37 powerplay, 7 shorthanded primary points. 97 total primary points.

Again, context is key. Patrick played for a much greater team. They scored goals with relative ease. This would naturally boost his primary totals as a result of his teammates' goal-scoring abilities, and his secondary total on account of their ability to make plays. One can not be so quick to assume that his primary total would rise, as talent has left the team. Jayce Hawryluk, John Quenneville, Ivan Provorov, and Macoy Erkamps have all moved on from the Wheat Kings.

Hischier is on pace to smash Patrick's 2015-16 primary point total. He has carried the Mooseheads all season thus far and is poised to have far better primary totals with a far less-talented team.

As for age and experience, Patrick missed eligibility for the 2016 NHL Draft by four days; 2015-16 may as well have been his draft season, and it was his sophomore season in the CHL. Hischier is currently in his rookie season in the CHL and has had to adjust to the North American game. What Hischier is doing compared to Patrick last season is quite remarkable.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

http://wheatkings.com/article/patrick-close-to-returning

Patrick, who hasn’t played a game since early October, plans to be back on the ice when the club’s weeklong Christmas break comes to an end on Boxing Day. While the team plays four games – two at home and two away – between Christmas and New Year’s, the 18-year old Winnipeg product is aiming to return to the lineup in early January.

Hope that's the case. I want to go out to Brandon and watch him play this season.

 

[Gaunce4gm]

Where would he fit in with 1st overall 1Cs that were drafted recently?

Crosby 2005
Stamkos 2008
Tavares 2009
Nugent Hopkins 2011
Mackinnon 2013
McDavid 2015
Matthews 2016

Let's assume Patrick goes 1st overall in 2017 how would he compare to other 1st overalls?

1-McJesus/Crosby
3-Stammer
4-Tavares
5-Matthews/Mackinnon
7-Nuge

What should we expect?

 

[Rebels57]

Where would he fit in with 1st overall 1Cs that were drafted recently?

Crosby 2005
Stamkos 2008
Tavares 2009
Nugent Hopkins 2011
Mackinnon 2013
McDavid 2015
Matthews 2016

Let's assume Patrick goes 1st overall in 2017 how would he compare to other 1st overalls?

1-McJesus/Crosby
3-Stammer
4-Tavares
5-Matthews/Mackinnon
7-Nuge

What should we expect?

Above RNH, below everyone else. Below a few 2nd overall picks as well, such as Eichel and Laine.

 

[Icebreakers]

Actually if you go by PRE draft only. He would be below RNH. RNH out of his draft was projected as a 1C.

 

[93LEAFS]

Where would he fit in with 1st overall 1Cs that were drafted recently?

Crosby 2005
Stamkos 2008
Tavares 2009
Nugent Hopkins 2011
Mackinnon 2013
McDavid 2015
Matthews 2016

Let's assume Patrick goes 1st overall in 2017 how would he compare to other 1st overalls?

1-McJesus/Crosby
3-Stammer
4-Tavares
5-Matthews/Mackinnon
7-Nuge

What should we expect?

Are you trying to rank them as what they currently are or what they were viewed as entering their draft? Matthews was viewed as at least as strong as Stamkos and JT at his draft. Mackinnon was close, large gap to Nuge who was behind guys like Seguin from the previous year. At the moment Patrick would rank behind all of them except Nuge in my opinion. 2nd overalls like Eichel and Laine are ahead. He's probably a safer bet than Dylan Strome for a bunch of reasons but might not have the offensive upside that Strome has. If you want to compare him to recent centers. He is probably above all the forwards from the 2014 class (Reinhart, Drai, Bennett) and 2012 class (RNH, Landeskog), While being on par with the top of the 2011 (Hall and Seguin). If he was in last years draft, I fully believe he would have gone 3rd to Columbus despite Bob McKenzie's weird phrasing on the situation (claiming he would go no higher than 5th, despite the fact he had Tkachuk above Dubois in his final rankings).

Actually if you go by PRE draft only. He would be below RNH. RNH out of his draft was projected as a 1C.

I think most people though Patrick was better and way more complete as a 17-year-old in the WHL last year. Many think he's the best forward from out west since Modano. Nuge probably had a more creative and higher end offensive upside, but Patrick's complete game probably gives him the edge (although RNH has never lived up to that offensive upside but has rounded out his game).

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Actually if you go by PRE draft only. He would be below RNH. RNH out of his draft was projected as a 1C.

I agree.

The hype for RNH was crazy towards the draft and in his rookie season he really lived up to it.

Patrick has too many guys who could go first overall and he has injury concerns so I just don't see how he would be ahead of RNH.

 

[snipes]

I agree.

The hype for RNH was crazy towards the draft and in his rookie season he really lived up to it.

Patrick has too many guys who could go first overall and he has injury concerns so I just don't see how he would be ahead of RNH.

In his draft -1, Patrick put up way better numbers than Nuge. Patrick's draft -1 numbers are better than Nuges draft year numbers if you include playoffs.

Patrick is also bigger and stronger, if I were looking at both in their draft year, I take Patrick easily. 6'3 200 pounds with good offensive instincts, powerful on the puck with soft hands, and as a bonus he's got good bloodlines. His dad and uncle were both NHL players.

Patrick brings a powerful, north/south style game that is effective in the Pacific. Drafting Patrick over Nuge wouldn't be a tough decision if I had a choice. I say this as an Oiler fan that likes Nuge.

 

[Icebreakers]

In his draft -1, Patrick put up way better numbers than Nuge. Patrick's draft -1 numbers are better than Nuges draft year numbers if you include playoffs.

Patrick is also bigger and stronger, if I were looking at both in their draft year, I take Patrick easily. 6'3 200 pounds with good offensive instincts, powerful on the puck with soft hands, and as a bonus he's got good bloodlines. His dad and uncle were both NHL players.

Patrick brings a powerful, north/south style game that is effective in the Pacific. Drafting Patrick over Nuge wouldn't be a tough decision if I had a choice. I say this as an Oiler fan that likes Nuge.

lol you cant compare -1 drafts when one player is a late birthday. Patrick was in his 2nd year in the WHL already while Nuge was in his rookie year. NOT comparable. No ones putting up 100 points as a 16 year old in the WHL in their rookie season unless if you are a Mcdavid.

 

[snipes]

lol you cant compare -1 drafts when one player is a late birthday. Patrick was in his 2nd year in the WHL already while Nuge was in his rookie year. NOT comparable. No ones putting up 100 points as a 16 year old in the WHL in their rookie season unless if you are a Mcdavid.

Fair enough, even if last year was his draft year I'd still take Patrick over Nuge. I like Nuge, but Patrick's size + skill in the Pacific would be huge.

 

[sbtatter]

First 150 games of their WHL careers
Huge had 37 EVen strength goals, Patrick had 55. Reinhardt had 45. Ederle 42, steel 26,
On the same Bdn team quenneville had 32, hawryluk 44.

 

[Daximus]

Patrick scores at a pretty high rate. Probably the highest of the last few decades in the WHL. I have a hard time comparing him and Hischier. Patrick will be a dominant physical offensive force at Center whereas Hischier will be more on the speedy and skill. Both can carve out very nice careers. They both have 1st line C potential and will bring a different dynamic to a team. I do think Patrick pays more of that Western Conference style of play for a centerman.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I see his highest potential as being a fan favorite player like Trevor Linden, Jarome Iginla, Ryan Smyth, Thomas Steen, etc.

 

[SI90]

How is his skating?

 

[93LEAFS]

How is his skating?

Not elite, not bad. Probably around average. While you'd like him to get faster, there are no major concerns. Probably grades out around a 55 on a 20-80 scale.

 

[SI90]

Not elite, not bad. Probably around average. While you'd like him to get faster, there are no major concerns. Probably grades out around a 55 on a 20-80 scale.

Thanks. As long as he isn't slow and has a bad stride. I beleive its important in today's NHL to have effective skaters.

Great skaters, especially rookies can cover up a lot of mistakes made out in the ice.

 

[yourbestfriend]

Similar type player to Matthews?

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Could he return for the Top Prospects Game?

 

[93LEAFS]

Similar type player to Matthews?

Not really, Patrick plays even more north/south and with more of an edge.

Matthews has an edge in skating and offensive IQ and a wide margin in puck control (Patrick is strong on the puck, but he doesn't have close to the hands Matthews does). The only areas Patrick clearly has him beat is his willingness to lay aggressive checks. Both have similarities in that they have a very balanced offensive approach and our big guys who play 2-way games. Matthews is much more dynamic is his puck carrying. Matthews might have the better shot, but Patrick might be better at shooting off the rush.

 

[Aceboogie]

Would Jordan Staal be a good comparable for Patrick?

 

[93LEAFS]

Would Jordan Staal be a good comparable for Patrick?

I personally like Monahan as a reasonable comparable, but no player comparisons are perfect. Jordan Staal isn't a bad one, although I would think he has a higher offensive ceiling than what Staal has shown in the NHL. I would think Patrick's upside offensively is closer to Eric.

 

[landy92mack29]

How is his skating?

well above average, he can fly.

He's supposed to start practising after Christmas and expects to be back early jan so should be good to go for the tpg.

My comparable is a much more physical kopitar