C Matthew Savoie - Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL (2022, 9th, BUF, traded to EDM) - PART 2

[Frk It]

Ok. I feel like this discussion is getting sidetracked by this "phenom" word, so I'm going to stop using it.
Let me rephrase my question:
Matthew Savoie had a lot of early hype. He hasn't lived up to that early hype. Him not living up to that early hype doesn't mean he sucks. Why didn't he live up to that early hype?

I mean, I think the kid had a great -1 season and then a really strong draft season, so I guess I am curious where you feel like he really was a disappointment for yourself?

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

He finished 7th in the WHL in scoring and led his stacked team in points as a draft eligible player. Hes looking to be a top 10 pick this year.

Hes actually that good, if he was 2 inches taller he would go top 3

Devil's advocate;

Didn't he get alot of his points on the PP? I'm not sure the #'s but ive heard some critique of his 5 on 5 production.

I get Barzal/Konecny vibes from him; where he was always touted as top 3-5 of this draft, then he drops out of the top 10 and people will say.. ‘you know what, he probably should have stayed in the top 5 or 10’.

Barzal & Konecny are different caliber players tho.

Is he more of a Barzal, or more a Konecny?

 

[Jukurit]

I mean, I think the kid had a great -1 season and then a really strong draft season, so I guess I am curious where you feel like he really was a disappointment for yourself?

I think if he had "fully" lived up to early hype he would be in discussion for #1 overall pick amongst Wright, Slafkovsky and Cooley.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Ok. I feel like this discussion is getting sidetracked by this "phenom" word, so I'm going to stop using it.
Let me rephrase my question:
Matthew Savoie had a lot of early hype. He hasn't lived up to that early hype. Him not living up to that early hype doesn't mean he sucks. Why didn't he live up to that early hype?

The poster said above, its subjective what the hype was. If you think every 12 year old labelled the next Crosby is actually going to become the next crosby, then im sorry to inform you it doesn't work that way.

Looking at it from a more realistic perspective - he was seen as a future NHL star and that could still be a possibility, hes projected to be a high pick and has lot of excellent tools. Why isn't he projected 1st overall? A few reasons, size and injuries don't help his case either.

All things considered, with he hype and attention he garnered, he has fared a lot better than many others have. To say he "hasn't lived up" is pretty strange, considering he could still become a very good NHL player or even a star.

 

[Jukurit]

Why isn't he projected 1st overall? A few reasons, size and injuries don't help his case either.

What are these "few reasons"? I already know about his size and injuries.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

What are these "few reasons"? I already know about his size and injuries.

There are players better than him available, and with higher floors. Savoie is a great player but he doesn't dominate physically nor does he create as much at even strength as one might want. He has a great ceiling as a pp player and a point producer but he also is streaky and sometimes gets overmatched with strength and size.

It's not a knock that he isn't ranked to go top 3, he's still an amazing player, but he might be more prone to having down years like a Jeff skinner IMO.

 

[Dominance]

If Savoie had come into this season as a relative unknown ranked in the middle rounds and then turned in this season, he would be universally ranked near the top of the draft, with pundits clamouring to anoint him as the next Barzal or Point. Because he has instead been discussed as a potential franchise talent for years and did not score 2 p/gp in the WHL after being injured and while being overshadowed by a genuine generational talent in Bedard, the discussion around Savoie is tinged with an air of disappointment, and he has steadily fallen behind newer “hot commodities” to the point where some suggest he might be selected 15th or even later.

Savoie remains arguably the most dynamic draft-eligible player, combining one of the best motors with elite shooting, skating, and playmaking ability. He is a top-5 prospect in this draft and would be a ridiculous steal at 10th overall. I do not think NHL teams will be so foolish, though.

 

[Jukurit]

sometimes gets overmatched with strength and size.

So how often does this happen and is it a concern? Did notice that he is already quite stocky, so he is probably not gonna add huge amounts of strength from now on. Are there concerns that he might get "outmuscled" at NHL level?

 

[wetcoast]

So how often does this happen and is it a concern? Did notice that he is already quite stocky, so he is probably not gonna add huge amounts of strength from now on. Are there concerns that he might get "outmuscled" at NHL level?

There are always concerns like this but in reality very few draft years players can push their way around in the CHL unless they are named Lindros or McDavid.

He is an extremely good prospect just not a generational guy or anything.

 

[Jukurit]

There are always concerns like this but in reality very few draft years players can push their way around in the CHL unless they are named Lindros or McDavid.

He is an extremely good prospect just not a generational guy or anything.

Yes. I'm well aware that Matthew Savoie is not generational. Also, yes. I'm sure huge guy like Eric Lindros was able to push his way around junior players. Not just sure what he has to do in discussion about a short player like Savoie, though.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Yes. I'm well aware that Matthew Savoie is not generational. Also, yes. I'm sure huge guy like Eric Lindros was able to push his way around junior players. Not just sure what he has to do in discussion about a short player like Savoie, though.

Push around the league to get what they want or play for which team they want. Not physically push around the league. It's not like Savoie was having a hard time producing in the WHL...he was still playing around 1.39 points per game. 11th in the league (WHL) in PPG, highest 2022 draft eligible prospect in the WHL. Above him are 9 drafted prospects or undrafted overagers....and Bedard. The only 2022 draft eligibles in the CHL with a better PPG rate are Jordan Dumais and Shane Wright. I don't believe Logan Morrison is a first year eligible.

Just to move past this, can you just say what you clearly are trying to get other people to say for you? You don't like Savoie and you think he's overrated.

 

[Jukurit]

Push around the league to get what they want or play for which team they want. Not physically push around the league. It's not like Savoie was having a hard time producing in the WHL...he was still playing around 1.39 points per game. 11th in the league in PPG, highest 2022 draft eligible prospect in the WHL. Above him are 9 drafted prospects or undrafted overagers....and Bedard. The only 2022 draft eligibles in the CHL with a better PPG rate are Jordan Dumais and Shane Wright. I don't believe Logan Morrison is a first year eligible.

Just to move past this, can you just say what you clearly are trying to get other people to say for you? You don't like Savoie and you think he's overrated.

I mean, I was talking about physically pushing around the league, so I assumed wetcoast meant that too. Not native english speaker, so maybe I misunderstood.

If I didn't like Savoie and thought he's overrated I would just say so. Not really sure why I would need other people to say it. I have literally never watched him play a game. I'm just curious about these guys who were once seen as "phenoms", but didn't quite live up to that hype. What were the specific reasons? Some listed about Savoie here are concussions and small size. But are there others? Not really sure why so many people seem assume I have some "ulterior motive" about this player. Only opinion I have is that he had a lot of hype, he has less hype now and I'm curious what changed? And yes, I know not every young player lives up to that early hype, but I would like to know more specific reasons (If there are any).

 

[Hen Kolland]

I mean, I was talking about physically pushing around the league, so I assumed wetcoast meant that too. Not native english speaker, so maybe I misunderstood.

If I didn't like Savoie and thought he's overrated I would just say so. Not really sure why I would need other people to say it. I have literally never watched him play a game. I'm just curious about these guys who were once seen as "phenoms", but didn't quite live up to that hype. What were the specific reasons? Some listed about Savoie here are concussions and small size. But are there others? Not really sure why so many people seem assume I have some "ulterior motive" about this player. Only opinion I have is that he had a lot of hype, he has less hype now and I'm curious what changed? And yes, I know not every young player lives up to that early hype, but I would like to know more specific reasons (If there are any).

I think for the sake of what you are trying to discuss, hype tends to be more of a recency bias thing. It's an excitement thing that is tied to expectations of the unknown future. Or, in other words "what could be".

Savoie's hype came when he was younger and he has maintained that level of hype with a lot of people still considering him a top 10 pick. Other players (Kasper, Gauthier, Nazar, some of the defensemen) are on hype curves that are steeper and later blooming. It's why you see certain people start to move them up their lists gradually (or quickly for some) since around December.

For why he's fallen behind some other prospects...I think size bias is a substantial factor. If Savoie was 5'11 instead of 5'9, the discussion of whether he could stick at center would be much less of a debate and people wouldn't knock him for the perceived physical shortcomings. His skating is a strength in my opinion, but at 5'9 people want to see an elite skating package to make up for reach. He is willing to take the middle of the ice and get to the net, but people tend to be cautious about projecting someone at 5'9 being able to handle the physicality of the NHL.

Really what I think people needed to see from Savoie this year was a truly dominant offensive output that consistently displayed elite offensive tools. An elite shot, elite vision, etc. Without him doing what Bedard is doing, it was going to be difficult for Savoie to maintain a top 3 draft slot, imo. Physical profile wise, Savoie and Bedard aren't different at the moment (Bedard is a year and a half younger, so this may change), so I think the benchmark for assessing them is the same. Bedard pops in areas that Savoie doesn't hit quite the same level, even if he isn't a slouch in those areas. It just allows for doubt to creep in, and doubt is always more common when someone doesn't measure up at an arbitrary height/weight combo.

 

[Jukurit]

So, really curious about other people's opinion of this Scouching video about Savoie.
Maybe I just don't understand this transition data, but if Savoie was really such an "elite skater", wouldn't his transition metrics be much better than this?
Scouching also thinks that Savoie lacks "separation gear", which also doesn't sound like something that an "elite skater" would lack. Also read earlier on this thread that somebody thought that Savoie was "easy to contain", so that seems like it could be a related issue.
Of course, I have never watched him play a game, but reading "small size", "lack of separation gear", "lack of strength" does sound concerning.
(NOTE: I don't hate Savoie. I'm genuinely curious.)

 

[lafellaesobar]

I would personally avoid him but what do I know. Maybe he can turn out good also. Small dude, doesn't fit the "Lamoriello" build of being big and kinda fast, and his goals really don't pop out. If I wanted another Dal Colle, i would've just traded #13

 

[Beckett]

So, really curious about other people's opinion of this Scouching video about Savoie.
Maybe I just don't understand this transition data, but if Savoie was really such an "elite skater", wouldn't his transition metrics be much better than this?
Scouching also thinks that Savoie lacks "separation gear", which also doesn't sound like something that an "elite skater" would lack. Also read earlier on this thread that somebody thought that Savoie was "easy to contain", so that seems like it could be a related issue.
Of course, I have never watched him play a game, but reading "small size", "lack of separation gear", "lack of strength" does sound concerning.
(NOTE: I don't hate Savoie. I'm genuinely curious.)

I agree he doesnt have the separation speed youre hoping for from an undersized forward. I think Savoie slips in the draft, personally I'd rather take a chance on Lambert

 

[Jukurit]

If Savoie had come into this season as a relative unknown ranked in the middle rounds and then turned in this season, he would be universally ranked near the top of the draft,

I don't think that's how that works though. If a guy comes from "relative unknown" and then suddenly looks like a high draft pick, then that implies that prospect took a huge leap in development in one offseason, and that gets people excited, because that prospect may keep taking those "huge leaps" in development and just keep getting better and better. But if a known prospect keeps "trending down", then they just might continue "trending down" even after the draft. Nothing is guaranteed of course.

 

[MS]

Push around the league to get what they want or play for which team they want. Not physically push around the league. It's not like Savoie was having a hard time producing in the WHL...he was still playing around 1.39 points per game. 11th in the league (WHL) in PPG, highest 2022 draft eligible prospect in the WHL. Above him are 9 drafted prospects or undrafted overagers....and Bedard. The only 2022 draft eligibles in the CHL with a better PPG rate are Jordan Dumais and Shane Wright. I don't believe Logan Morrison is a first year eligible.

Just to move past this, can you just say what you clearly are trying to get other people to say for you? You don't like Savoie and you think he's overrated.

Yeah, this is a very strange discussion.

He was rated as the most talented WHL player for this draft 2-3 years ago ... and that's exactly what happened. But he only grew to 5'9 so he's 'only' #7 overall in the consensus rankings. That's still absolutely phenomenal and he's lived up to the hype, which was never remotely at Bedard or McDavid or Crosby level.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

There are players better than him available, and with higher floors. Savoie is a great player but he doesn't dominate physically nor does he create as much at even strength as one might want. He has a great ceiling as a pp player and a point producer but he also is streaky and sometimes gets overmatched with strength and size.

It's not a knock that he isn't ranked to go top 3, he's still an amazing player, but he might be more prone to having down years like a Jeff skinner IMO.

Say you don't watch Jeff Skinner without saying you don't watch Jeff Skinner

Skinner is literally the opporite of Savoie -- makes his living at ES, horrible on the PP.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Savoie will be the next zegras

 

[Jukurit]

Yeah, this is a very strange discussion.

He was rated as the most talented WHL player for this draft 2-3 years ago ... and that's exactly what happened. But he only grew to 5'9 so he's 'only' #7 overall in the consensus rankings. That's still absolutely phenomenal and he's lived up to the hype, which was never remotely at Bedard or McDavid or Crosby level.

Huh. I thought he was supposed to be really really good #1 overall caliber player. But maybe I misunderstood.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Say you don't watch Jeff Skinner without saying you don't watch Jeff Skinner

Skinner is literally the opporite of Savoie -- makes his living at ES, horrible on the PP.

I feel like too much is being made out of Savoie scoring a lot on the powerplay. 38% of his total points came from the powerplay. Lafreniere was at 36% in his draft year...hell McDavid was at 34% in his draft year. The ICE were also the WHL's most efficient powerplay with Savoie factoring into more than 50% of those powerplay goals. That's worth something to me.

When you take an extremely skilled offensive team and give them powerplay opportunities, you'd hope they'd take advantage, and Savoie played a big part in the team taking advantage. Even if you take out the powerplay, he was third on his team in even strength production behind two guys playing in their 4th year of juniors.

 

[MS]

Huh. I thought he was supposed to be really really good #1 overall caliber player. But maybe I misunderstood.

I mean, he was. But he didn't grow. If he was 6'1 he'd be in the discussion alongside Cooley and Wright.

 

[Jukurit]

I mean, he was. But he didn't grow. If he was 6'1 he'd be in the discussion alongside Cooley and Wright.

Right. If he was bigger, he'd be projected as a center to NHL, and that would of course raise his draft stock, on top of just simply being bigger, which also raises your draft stock.

 

[MS]

Right. If he was bigger, he'd be projected as a center to NHL, and that would of course raise his draft stock, on top of just simply being bigger, which also raises your draft stock.

For sure. But the projection of his skill level was correct. His WHL numbers are basically identical to Wright's OHL numbers and those two are easily the highest-scoring draft eligibles in the CHL, as was predicted a couple years ago. Wright just grew to 6'1 and Savoie only hit 5'9.