C Matthew Savoie - Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL (2022, 9th, BUF, traded to EDM) - PART 2

[wetcoast]

Wings will take Kapser , Sabres will get derpy and take Geekie

I really see the sabers targeting a guy like Savoie or Gauthier/Kasper at #9.

Buffalo picks again at #16 and #28 Geekie might still be on the board.

The wildcard in the first round is Arizona who pick 3,27 and probably 32 but also have 4 second round picks as well.

I honestly don't think that Savoie will be there at #8 for Detroit either.

I could see the Sabers taking one of the 3 guys I listed at #9 then maybe Yurov at #16 and then a skilled guy who drops at #28, like Brad Lambert maybe?

 

[wetcoast]

Quite different players, to me. Barzal is quite a bit bigger and much more of a pass-first player.

Savoie reminds me a lot of a young Zach Parise - smallish but well-built, explosive skater, really quick hands.

Obviously Parise has been a winger in the NHL but he was a C at lower levels and Savoie might have to make the same transition to wing eventually.

I think that Savoie is a bit of a buzzsaw grinder and his ceiling is that of a Crosby lite....so better than Parise if all goes well.

His skating and IQ are really high enough as is his work ethic.

 

[Jukurit]

So this guy had a lot hype years ago, but based on current draft lists, seems to have fallen off a bit.
What are the reasons for him not living up to early hype? Was he just never actually that good, or did something else happen?

 

[57special]

Quite different players, to me. Barzal is quite a bit bigger and much more of a pass-first player.

Savoie reminds me a lot of a young Zach Parise - smallish but well-built, explosive skater, really quick hands.

Obviously Parise has been a winger in the NHL but he was a C at lower levels and Savoie might have to make the same transition to wing eventually.

Interesting comp. Parise went lower because of his size, but was on his way to a HOF career till his back went out. The NHL was a tougher league back then, too.

 

[newfy]

So this guy had a lot hype years ago, but based on current draft lists, seems to have fallen off a bit.
What are the reasons for him not living up to early hype? Was he just never actually that good, or did something else happen?

He finished 7th in the WHL in scoring and led his stacked team in points as a draft eligible player. Hes looking to be a top 10 pick this year.

Hes actually that good, if he was 2 inches taller he would go top 3

 

[Jukurit]

He finished 7th in the WHL in scoring and led his stacked team in points as a draft eligible player. Hes looking to be a top 10 pick this year.

Hes actually that good, if he was 2 inches taller he would go top 3

Ok. But I though he was supposed to be a "phenom". Early articles about him said that he draws comparisons to Crosby and MacKinnon. There was also talk about him being the first WHL player to be granted exceptional status (didn't happen).

I'd say Bedard has lived up to early hype, but Savoie hasn't, and I was wondering why that is.

 

[wetcoast]

Ok. But I though he was supposed to be a "phenom". Early articles about him said that he draws comparisons to Crosby and MacKinnon. There was also talk about him being the first WHL player to be granted exceptional status (didn't happen).

I'd say Bedard has lived up to early hype, but Savoie hasn't, and I was wondering why that is.

Part of the reason is the hype and he was injured with a devastating hit as a 15 year old in Winnipeg in his rookie year.

He also was playing with non skilled players so he didn't have the immediate impact that Bedard did.

I also think that if a really good skilled prospect doesn't have exceptional linear production people automatically get down on a guy especially if he is smaller.

He is going to be a very good NHL player for a long time and if he drops people will look back and ask why.

 

[Jukurit]

Part of the reason is the hype and he was injured with a devastating hit as a 15 year old in Winnipeg in his rookie year.

He also was playing with non skilled players so he didn't have the immediate impact that Bedard did.

I also think that if a really good skilled prospect doesn't have exceptional linear production people automatically get down on a guy especially if he is smaller.

He is going to be a very good NHL player for a long time and if he drops people will look back and ask why.

Yeah, I knew about the hit. Did that hit change his playstyle or is he still suffering some effects from it?

When you say "very good NHL player", how good do you mean? 70 point player? 80 point player? Something else?

 

[Ace]

Wings will take Kapser , Sabres will get derpy and take Geekie

Buffalo is trying to build a team that plays aggressive, high effort and attacks with speed.

Thats the opposite of Geekie

 

[Lloydchristmas138]

I get Barzal/Konecny vibes from him; where he was always touted as top 3-5 of this draft, then he drops out of the top 10 and people will say.. ‘you know what, he probably should have stayed in the top 5 or 10’.

 

[BKarchitect]

I don’t think Savoie did anything wrong or performed poorly to cause him to “drop” from supposed “phenom” status. It’s just reminder #5,378 that projecting a kid for the NHL level at 15 or 16 is a fool’s errand.

It only appears that Savoie has dropped because other players in his age cohort have grown in stature and reputation in the past few years and a few have passed him as prospect for the NHL level. Which isn’t surprising at all.

By all accounts Savoie is still going to be a top 10-15 pick. Which makes him an excellent if slightly flawed (as most these guys are) prospect for any NHL team to add to their stable. We will see where things go from there - but I just see a kid who has been a very good prospect from a young age and continues to be a very good prospect…not a phenom who has fallen back to earth.

 

[Jukurit]

I don’t think Savoie did anything wrong or performed poorly to cause him to “drop” from supposed “phenom” status. It’s just reminder #5,378 that projecting a kid for the NHL level at 15 or 16 is a fool’s errand.

It only appears that Savoie has dropped because other players in his age cohort have grown in stature and reputation in the past few years and a few have passed him as prospect for the NHL level. Which isn’t surprising at all.

By all accounts Savoie is still going to be a top 10-15 pick. Which makes him an excellent if slightly flawed (as most these guys are) prospect for any NHL team to add to their stable. We will see where things go from there - but I just see a kid who has been a very good prospect from a young age and continues to be a very good prospect…not a phenom who has fallen back to earth.

Ok. So do you think he was wrongly given the "phenom" status, even though he didn't actually "deserve" it.

 

[buzzer beater]

He’s probably gonna fall on draft day because of his multiple concussions. I remember he was knocked out cold in the USHL that one alone will scare away a lot of teams.

 

[BKarchitect]

Ok. So do you think he was wrongly given the "phenom" status, even though he didn't actually "deserve" it.

Not right or wrong. I mean he kind of was a phenom at that younger age and is still a great prospect. I just don’t think outside of a very, very select few that we should interpret being a phenom at age 15 as guaranteeing a top 3 draft position for the NHL draft 3 years into the future.

I mean Lambert had the same buzz for this draft. And of course Wright. Three years ago in our crystal balls we were all salivating at the potential of a Wright-Savoie-Lambert trio atop the 2022 draft board as all superstars in the making. That just highlights how silly we are as fans more than saying anything about the player. I’d say Lambert has been a disappointment but the other two have done really well and yet we sit here thinking “oh man I can’t believe Matt Savoie may not even be a top 8 pick, that’s disappointing”. But really it’s not.

 

[Jukurit]

Not right or wrong. I mean he kind of was a phenom at that younger age and is still a great prospect. I just don’t think outside of a very, very select few that we should interpret being a phenom at age 15 as guaranteeing a top 3 draft position for the NHL draft 3 years into the future.

I mean Lambert had the same buzz for this draft. And of course Wright. Three years ago in our crystal balls we were all salivating at the potential of a Wright-Savoie-Lambert trio atop the 2022 draft board as all superstars in the making. That just highlights how silly we are as fans more than saying anything about the player. I’d say Lambert has been a disappointment but the other two have done really well and yet we sit here thinking “oh man I can’t believe Matt Savoie may not even be a top 8 pick, that’s disappointing”. But really it’s not.

Ok, yeah, this is exactly what I was getting at. I have watched Lambert enough to realize that he was never actually as good as the early hype dictated and his flaws got exposed at higher levels.

But I still think it's at least little bit disappointing that Savoie "may not even be a top 8 pick" based on early hype.
So question I still would have is, what happened between when he was still playing in CSSHL and current day?
Did those concussions mess him up? Did he just not progress as much as hoped? Something else?

Wright is still consensus #1 pick in this draft, so out of Savoie/Wright/Lambert trio I think he's the only that really lived up to early hype. (Though Wright seems to have some questions about his upside, but let's not get into that)

 

[ZDH]

LOL

Kasper the ghost.

Man... I trust DETROIT the city to take the right guys ( I bet they wish they could get wright )

This isn't the year to be upset at missing out on #1.

Next year - yea.

 

[Gillings]

This isn't the year to be upset at missing out on #1.

Next year - yea.

Shane Wright is a potential Franchise Centre..

 

[Boonk]

Ok. But I though he was supposed to be a "phenom". Early articles about him said that he draws comparisons to Crosby and MacKinnon. There was also talk about him being the first WHL player to be granted exceptional status (didn't happen).

I'd say Bedard has lived up to early hype, but Savoie hasn't, and I was wondering why that is.

Savoie didn't get ES from the WHL because he didn't want to go to Prince George, who had the best odds of winning the WHL draft lottery as the worst team in the league that year. He wanted to convince Hockey Canada to let him play in the AJHL instead but they refused.

Still a really good player, he went PPG in the USHL last year as a U17 and led the Ice in scoring this year.

 

[ZDH]

Shane Wright is a potential Franchise Centre..

Meh. I don't see much in this class.

Bedard is a franchise center. Nobody is adding the word potential to that sentence. That's the difference.

 

[Jukurit]

Savoie didn't get ES from the WHL because he didn't want to go to Prince George, who had the best odds of winning the WHL draft lottery as the worst team in the league that year. He wanted to convince Hockey Canada to let him play in the AJHL instead but they refused.

Still a really good player, he went PPG in the USHL last year as a U17 and led the Ice in scoring this year.

Ok. I didn't know about the Prince George thing.

Yes, I know he is a "really good player". He is ranked top 10 on most draft lists.
The question I'm only asking is: Why isn't he considered "phenom" anymore?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Ok. I didn't know about the Prince George thing.

Yes, I know he is a "really good player". He is ranked top 10 on most draft lists.
The question I'm only asking is: Why isn't he considered "phenom" anymore?

The question I’m starting to ask is why do you care so much about an arbitrary label?

There are so many players that come up being leaps and bounds better than their peers. As those peers change, whether that means the peers grow and develop or those peers become different people, the gap starts to shrink.

It could be that Savoie was super advanced in his development and his growth was slower than the players he had previously lapped. It could be that as you change the scope of your analysis, Savoie shifts from being a “phenom” in Alberta, to “extremely good” in Canada, to “really good” among all draft prospects.

You can conjure up whatever you’d like. Say he played his way out of it, say he never deserved it, it doesn’t really matter. Getting hung up on this like being labeled a phenom or being granted exceptional status just isn’t worth the debate. Sean Day and Joe Veleno are good examples of why it really doesn’t matter what you did 3, 4, 5 years ago. Anybody can hit a ceiling with their development.

 

[wetcoast]

Yeah, I knew about the hit. Did that hit change his playstyle or is he still suffering some effects from it?

When you say "very good NHL player", how good do you mean? 70 point player? 80 point player? Something else?

In his peak seasons I except a play driving center/winger who scores at a PPG for at least a 3 season stretch.

As for the hit, the whole 15 year old season was a bit of a write off in the way Winnipeg used him.

I also think that he has lost some of his "shine" being compared to Bedard and if Bedard wasn't around the progression for Savoie would actually be really good, some just expect every young talent to immediately be the best player in the league or something and that only happens in rare occasions.

 

[Jukurit]

The question I’m starting to ask is why do you care so much about an arbitrary label?

There are so many players that come up being leaps and bounds better than their peers. As those peers change, whether that means the peers grow and develop or those peers become different people, the gap starts to shrink.

It could be that Savoie was super advanced in his development and his growth was slower than the players he had previously lapped. It could be that as you change the scope of your analysis, Savoie shifts from being a “phenom” in Alberta, to “extremely good” in Canada, to “really good” among all draft prospects.

You can conjure up whatever you’d like. Say he played his way out of it, say he never deserved it, it doesn’t really matter. Getting hung up on this like being labeled a phenom or being granted exceptional status just isn’t worth the debate. Sean Day and Joe Veleno are good examples of why it really doesn’t matter what you did 3, 4, 5 years ago. Anybody can hit a ceiling with their development.

Ok. So you don't actually know and didn't answer my question.

My understanding is that Sean Day was a "man amongst boys" at early age. Big guy and really good skater and that advantage he had diminshed as he moved up the levels.

Not really sure about Veleno though. Why was he even given exceptional status? 52 points in 41 games in QMAAA doesn't seem very "exceptional" to me, but maybe I'm wrong. Found this article from 2015 saying that Veleno "didn't deserve" exceptional status (link), so I'm wondering, was Veleno given exceptional status some kind of "political" decision. Keep him playing in Canada and not go NCAA route or something.

So, out of the 2 guys you named there's reasons why they didn't live up to early hype. Day was physically advanced for his age and Veleno probably just didn't actually "deserve" to get exceptional status.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Ok. So you don't actually know and didn't answer my question.

My understanding is that Sean Day was a "man amongst boys" at early age. Big guy and really good skater and that advantage he had diminshed as he moved up the levels.

Not really sure about Veleno though. Why was he even given exceptional status? 52 points in 41 games in QMAAA doesn't seem very "exceptional" to me, but maybe I'm wrong. Found this article from 2015 saying that Veleno "didn't deserve" exceptional status (link), so I'm wondering, was Veleno given exceptional status some kind of "political" decision. Keep him playing in Canada and not go NCAA route or something.

So, out of the 2 guys you named there's reasons why they didn't live up to early hype. Day was physically advanced for his age and Veleno probably just didn't actually "deserve" to get exceptional status.

You're asking why people used the word "phenom" to describe Savoie. It's literally just a word. There's no criteria that he fit that made it acceptable to use the term...it's just sexy. He was better than pretty much every single player that he went up against and played above his age group his entire youth hockey life. People want a headline, they use a sexy word like "phenom".

He hasn't lived up to the word, but it's not like there was any significance to it to begin with. It doesn't influence him as a prospect and it won't influence his NHL career. I know it's shocking that not every extremely talented kid with a lot of hype goes on to become the best player in the world.

 

[Jukurit]

You're asking why people used the word "phenom" to describe Savoie. It's literally just a word. There's no criteria that he fit that made it acceptable to use the term...it's just sexy. He was better than pretty much every single player that he went up against and played above his age group his entire youth hockey life. People want a headline, they use a sexy word like "phenom".

He hasn't lived up to the word, but it's not like there was any significance to it to begin with. It doesn't influence him as a prospect and it won't influence his NHL career. I know it's shocking that not every extremely talented kid with a lot of hype goes on to become the best player in the world.

Ok. I feel like this discussion is getting sidetracked by this "phenom" word, so I'm going to stop using it.
Let me rephrase my question:
Matthew Savoie had a lot of early hype. He hasn't lived up to that early hype. Him not living up to that early hype doesn't mean he sucks. Why didn't he live up to that early hype?