C/LW Cole Perfetti - Saginaw Spirit, OHL (2020, 10th, WPG)

[Dotter]

Let’s revisit your original statement.

“If I draft in the top 10 and end up with a Darren Helm I’ve failed just as much as someone who drafted a player who tops off as an AHL player” (paraphrased).

Not one person is saying draft a player who’s CEILING is a Darren Helm player. They’re saying Perfetti May have a higher ceiling, but his floor is much lower than someone like Jarvis who is likely an NHL player either way.

Its like saying it’s a 50/50 chance Perfetti is a 90pt player or an AHL journeyman while Jarvis is 50/50 chance to be a 70pt player or a 3rd line checking role player. Understandable why some GMs may take the second option.

Hopefully you can see how foolish your statement is.

If my team is the worse team in the cap-era, and if I don't get at minimum a PPG player out of it, then I would be extremely disappointed.

I don't care if it is a 3rd line checker, 70 point player or a complete bust, I want the chance at that 90+ point player. Anything less is unacceptable.

Third line checkers are a dime-a-dozen. swing for the fences and draft Perfetti at #4 who could have a chance at being the best (and most valuable) player in the 2020 NHL draft.

 

[majormajor]

If my team is the worse team in the cap-era, and if I don't get at minimum a PPG player out of it, then I would be extremely disappointed.

I don't care if it is a 3rd line checker, 70 point player or a complete bust, I want the chance at that 90+ point player. Anything less is unacceptable.

Third line checkers are a dime-a-dozen. swing for the fences and draft Perfetti at #4 who could have a chance at being the best (and most valuable) player in the 2020 NHL draft.

Normally I'd say "swing for the fences" but we've somehow moved the fence awfully far back in this conversation. 90 pts is rare, many drafts don't have players like that in them. And 70 pts is A LOT. You can win the cup with a couple forwards at that level.

 

[Dotter]

Does anyone have a summarized version on Mr. Perfetti from the BlackBook or the likes?

 

[Dotter]

Normally I'd say "swing for the fences" but we've somehow moved the fence awfully far back in this conversation. 90 pts is rare, many drafts don't have players like that in them. And 70 pts is A LOT. You can win the cup with a couple forwards at that level.

If it is between a 90 point player / bust vs 70 point player / 3rd line checker... I say go all in for the 90 point stud. Under the circumstances, the floor @ a 3rd line checker doesn't do anything. The ceiling of a potential 90 point player makes the all the difference.

 

[majormajor]

If it is between a 90 point player / bust vs 70 point player / 3rd line checker... I say go all in for the 90 point stud. Under the circumstances, the floor @ a 3rd line checker doesn't do anything. The ceiling of a potential 90 point player makes the all the difference.

Yeah if Perfetti really was a 50/50 chance at 90 pts I'd be much more interested, I just don't think that's accurate. Perhaps he has a 25% shot at that.

 

[OUT HOUSE]

Does anyone have a summarized version on Mr. Perfetti from the BlackBook or the likes?

They stress that he has the highest hockey sense of anyone from the draft.. by far. They’re very high on him.

I’d recommended the black book, there’s tons of information and reports on each player. It’ll be nice to have it in front of me on draft day.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah if Perfetti really was a 50/50 chance at 90 pts I'd be much more interested, I just don't think that's accurate. Perhaps he has a 25% shot at that.

I mean, no one is likely to reach their perceived ceilings or end up at their floor. Its much different than a 50/50 split, probably talking around 5% to 10% on each side. Just happens certain guys end up in those ranges like Sam Bennett.

I do think Perfetti's ceiling is probably higher than a 90 point player. But, I generally think the floor/ceiling debate since in order to sound realistic people dumb down the argument. If someone like Perfetti hits there ceiling you are talking a guy who contends for perennially for the Art Ross like a Martin St. Louis, not the chances of that happening are likely. Just like people didn't think Yakupov's reasonable floor was a 3rd liner in the KHL with no significant injuries to blame.

I'll say this, I think the reasonable hope for Perfetti is something between Marner and Jeff Skinner. He doesn't have the skating of either, but he has a better shot than Marner and has better vision/hockey-IQ than Skinner. Marner's also been able to maximize his return due to playing with a very high-IQ goal-scorer in Tavares last year, and an elite sniping-center plus very good IQ center in Matthews. Now, he was on track to be a very high-end winger prior to that even when playing primarily with Bozak and Kadri (averaging about 67 points per 82 games at 19 and 20 with those guys, and not true 1st line PP minutes or usage). Now, Perfetti isn't likely to walk into a situation where he has a goal-scoring center of the first two examples elsewhere with Detroit having a strong 2-way elite skating center in Larkin, but not a great goal-scorer, and Ottawa his future center is likely Byfield or Stutzle. Anaheim and the Devils lack those types of centers too (Hischier is strong 2-way, and Hughes is more of a playmaker). He could fall farther than that, but I don't think he should. If I'm Detroit at 4 or Ottawa at 5, I pretty easily take him barring some huge surprise of Laf or Stutzle being available and to a lesser extent Byfield.

 

[57special]

Isn't the worry with Perfetti is that not only does he only have average speed amongst his peers, but below average size and strength? I know he can always improve, but meanwhile, so is everyone else.

I'm sticking with him being the next Mikael Granlund.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Isn't the worry with Perfetti is that not only does he only have average speed amongst his peers, but below average size and strength? I know he can always improve, but meanwhile, so is everyone else.

I'm sticking with him being the next Mikael Granlund.

It's that his skating is just pretty okay, that he's undersized/physically underdeveloped, and that he doesn't really play a high intensity/defensively-inclined game. So if he busts, it could be a total loss--it's possible he wouldn't be an NHLer at all.

But the upside is really, really high. And if you've done your homework as a team, you'll have a good idea of the kid's character and work ethic, which can reduce the risk a bit.

 

[Random Comment]

Wow people in this thread thinking he has a 90 point perennial art ross trophy contender ceiling is jokes. He doesn’t have the toolbox for that. He’s still a great prospect, but I think his ceiling is an average 1st line centre - and that would be great @ 4OA.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

Wow people in this thread thinking he has a 90 point perennial art ross trophy contender ceiling is jokes. He doesn’t have the toolbox for that. He’s still a great prospect, but I think his ceiling is an average 1st line centre - and that would be great @ 4OA.

doubtful. He can be a powerhouse winger though. His Skating is over analyzed. He’s great on his edges he’s just not as explosive as you’d like for his size. He’ll get there though he’s so physically immature. We’re talking about a guy who virtually always makes the best play available with the puck and that’s what makes him elite. That’s what is going to allow him to maximize his toolbox.

 

[newfy]

Wow people in this thread thinking he has a 90 point perennial art ross trophy contender ceiling is jokes. He doesn’t have the toolbox for that. He’s still a great prospect, but I think his ceiling is an average 1st line centre - and that would be great @ 4OA.

He absolutely has that ceiling, most guys dont hit that ceiling but he has it. He does have the toolbox for that because the most important tool is hockey sense and his is off the charts. Hes also got an asbolutely wicked shot and his vision is great. If he wasnt physically underdeveloped he would be up near Lafreniere but he has a 14 year old body at this point.

I'm not sold that Mitch Marner was some ridiculously better prospect, a bit better maybe but kinda comparable. Marner is 23 and has a 94 point season and another season on pace for 93. Not likely he hits it, but is it ridiculous to expect him to possibly be a point per game 80 point guy? No, so 90 points as a ceiling is the right ball park

 

[Daneurism]

He's going to be an NHL player. The downside isn't an AHL player. Calm down on the EXTREME boom bust prediction. His character, super high hockey IQ and is high skill level is gonna keep him in the NHL

 

[Daneurism]

I think Marner felt like more of a sure thing because he just seemed immature physically, where as Perfetti's got a bit of a stocky frame.

 

[Zaddy]

Marner was for sure a better prospect. Not even that close IMO. Marner's skating and play away from the puck was just in another stratosphere.

 

[57special]

Marner was a better skater.

 

[newfy]

Marner was a better skater.

Marner was a better skater, Perfetti seems a little stronger on his feet to me because hes a bit stockier though. Perfetti has a much better shot than Marner.

Its easy to say in hindsight Marner was a better prospect because he panned out so quickly in the NHL but at draft time I would say theyre in a similar tier. Marner got to play on a stacked team, I think him going back to junior for a year raised his stock like crazy(rightfully so), he got to play in the world juniors and light up a mem cup. I think people think back to that season a lot and not his actual draft year where there were some legit concerns about his game, similar to Perfetti now. Perfetti playing in London on a line with 2 high end NHL draft picks lighting it up would get him more draft hype than playing junior in the States as well

Might call Marner better but Perfetti is in that wheel house for sure. Hes a type of player who has just enough questions to not get ranked in the top 2 or 3 of a draft but if his game translates hes gonna be a force. Marner had the size questions even moreso than Perfetti but Perfettis top speed isnt as good as Marners.

 

[57special]

Go back and look at the threads on Marner pre draft. He was getting raves for his play. Perfetti is not in same tier in terms of skating, and I sure don't see evidence of him being strong on his skates. On the contrary, there have been comments of him being knocked off the puck and losing puck battles, in contrast to Rossi, who is a Dionne like fire hydrant out there.

Granlund was a stickhandling and passing genius, and had great offensive creativity and vision. Perfetti has similar attributes. Granlund also had mediocre size, speed, and strength, though that didn't become obvious till he came into the NHL. Perfetti seems to have similar weaknesses, but he could develop differently. I don't see him ever being a fast skater by NHL standards, but maybe he can still grow a bit. Some players are just strong on their skates, regardless of size, others aren't. It's not something that is easily explained...getting stronger helps, but there are other things in play that make skater A more connected to the ice than skater B.

All this is just my uninformed opinion. A LOT of scouts seem to really like Perfetti, and are putting him just after the top 3 players in terms of ranking the draft. I would take Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond ahead of him for sure, maybe Holtz. Sanderson too, for a team that needs a LHD.

 

[Dominance]

Go back and look at the threads on Marner pre draft. He was getting raves for his play. Perfetti is not in same tier in terms of skating, and I sure don't see evidence of him being strong on his skates. On the contrary, there have been comments of him being knocked off the puck and losing puck battles, in contrast to Rossi, who is a Dionne like fire hydrant out there.

Granlund was a stickhandling and passing genius, and had great offensive creativity and vision. Perfetti has similar attributes. Granlund also had mediocre size, speed, and strength, though that didn't become obvious till he came into the NHL. Perfetti seems to have similar weaknesses, but he could develop differently. I don't see him ever being a fast skater by NHL standards, but maybe he can still grow a bit. Some players are just strong on their skates, regardless of size, others aren't. It's not something that is easily explained...getting stronger helps, but there are other things in play that make skater A more connected to the ice than skater B.

All this is just my uninformed opinion. A LOT of scouts seem to really like Perfetti, and are putting him just after the top 3 players in terms of ranking the draft. I would take Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond ahead of him for sure, maybe Holtz. Sanderson too, for a team that needs a LHD.

Forgetting everything else - Rossi over Perfetti is just a giant “NO” from me, as one who has closely followed both. Same size/skating question, but with equal or lesser projectable offensive attributes across the board. Rossi is older and more physically mature, too, and his better - but not vastly so - play on the defensive side of the puck doesn’t swing the needle.

I am very confident that Detroit is going to take Perfetti at 4.

 

[Dotter]

I'm not ruling out that Perfetti could eventually develop into the best (and most important) player in the 2020 draft. He has the tools to become GENERATIONAL talent ELITE. I would not be a bit surprised if he becomes a player that is in the same conversation as McDavid among the elite.

But people want to talk about his skating... which is absolutely fine. Or talk about his tenacity... which again, is fine. He will no doubt get better/stronger and has arguably the highest upside as anyone in 2020.

I agree with anyone who says he is not NHL ready. He needs to be drafted by Detroit so he can be properly developed.

 

[Random Comment]

I would not be a bit surprised if he becomes a player that is in the same conversation as McDavid among the elite.

Is ...is this a joke? I can promise you he will never ever be in the same conversation as McDavid. Are you friends in RL with Cole? Lol.

 

[Dotter]

Is ...is this a joke? I can promise you he will never ever be in the same conversation as McDavid. Are you friends in RL with Cole? Lol.

Another random comment?

 

[Zaddy]

I'm not ruling out that Perfetti could eventually develop into the best (and most important) player in the 2020 draft. He has the tools to become GENERATIONAL talent ELITE. I would not be a bit surprised if he becomes a player that is in the same conversation as McDavid among the elite.

But people want to talk about his skating... which is absolutely fine. Or talk about his tenacity... which again, is fine. He will no doubt get better/stronger and has arguably the highest upside as anyone in 2020.

I agree with anyone who says he is not NHL ready. He needs to be drafted by Detroit so he can be properly developed.

His skating is not 'fine' as a whole. His agility and edgework is fine but he's very slow. His stride is honestly brutal. I love Perfetti's game but that skating is going to be a problem. Even if he was 6'4 his skating wouldn't be considered fine let alone as a 5'10 guy, at least not by my standards.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Forgetting everything else - Rossi over Perfetti is just a giant “NO” from me, as one who has closely followed both. Same size/skating question, but with equal or lesser projectable offensive attributes across the board. Rossi is older and more physically mature, too, and his better - but not vastly so - play on the defensive side of the puck doesn’t swing the needle.

I am very confident that Detroit is going to take Perfetti at 4.

So, the guy that scored more goals and points than Perfetti in the same league does not project to be as good as Perfetti offensively because...why? They're equally good passers, equally intelligent in the offensive zone where they both seem to make the right play to keep their team in the zone.

Yes, Rossi is older. This is not bad. Rossi isn't some a 21 year old overager that dominated the OHL. Both are 18. Rossi is Perfetti's senior by 3 months and 1 week. HUGE f***ing difference.

Third, Rossi was voted the 2nd best defensive forward in the OHL's eastern conference. He was a beast on faceoffs and zone control in all areas of the ice. I like Perfetti's talent level, but the guy probably doesn't even know his goalie's first name. He is not a strong defensive player at all. When he didn't have the puck he was not engaged in the play.

Fourth, what scouting report out there states that Rossi and Perfetti have the same skating problems? Just about everything I've read raves about Rossi's agility and ability to skate at speed with the puck and how guys that are 6'3" bounce right off of him. Does the guy take more strides to go the same distance as Quinton Byfield? Most definitely. That's to be expected of a little guy.

 

[Dominance]

So, the guy that scored more goals and points than Perfetti in the same league does not project to be as good as Perfetti offensively because...why? They're equally good passers, equally intelligent in the offensive zone where they both seem to make the right play to keep their team in the zone.

Yes, Rossi is older. This is not bad. Rossi isn't some a 21 year old overager that dominated the OHL. Both are 18. Rossi is Perfetti's senior by 3 months and 1 week. HUGE f***ing difference.

Third, Rossi was voted the 2nd best defensive forward in the OHL's eastern conference. He was a beast on faceoffs and zone control in all areas of the ice. I like Perfetti's talent level, but the guy probably doesn't even know his goalie's first name. He is not a strong defensive player at all. When he didn't have the puck he was not engaged in the play.

Fourth, what scouting report out there states that Rossi and Perfetti have the same skating problems? Just about everything I've read raves about Rossi's agility and ability to skate at speed with the puck and how guys that are 6'3" bounce right off of him. Does the guy take more strides to go the same distance as Quinton Byfield? Most definitely. That's to be expected of a little guy.

You clearly aren’t actually watching the games, with that opening statement. Makes me not really want to address any other part of your post; you’ve clearly made up your mind based on what you’ve managed to gather.