WEll Craig Button in his latest list has him as the 2nd biggest "riser" --now upto #45--so that is mid-2nd ...but remember--this is a WEAK DRAFT (per Brian Burke) --so the value of a mid-2nd could be just as good as a guy in the 20's from the first ---- the real import of LUKAS SUTTER is that even though he does not project as a top six guy--but rather a 3rd line shutdown centre with size,toughness,physicality,fighting ability, he also posesses 2 other very attractive things : i) prowess of face-offs = VERY VALUED COMMODITY and ii) a good shot which a lot of third line projected checking centres do not have.... his skating was an issue but he has improved to the point that Button now has him upto mod-2nd consideration--BUT I SAY he looks like a much safer pick given his total package --of being an impact player FOR HIS PROJECTED POSITION--than bets on kids who may have potetial top six upside BUT realistically IN A WEAK DRAFT--probably are over projected and whoe upsside may just never get there to impact at the NHl level...THUS REALISTICALLY SUTTER is a better BET than lots of forwards in the 20's to "make it" in a long and sucessful NHL career...SO IF you are a GM lacking big tough physical centres who can win faceoffs,shut down the top lines of the opposition and also FIGHT --why would you wait and HOPE he'll stillbe there for you in the 2nd round if you are picking past mid-round? HE may be off the board by then?
IF this is a WEAK DRAFT after say the top half of round one---then why gamble on some maybe when you are "certain" adding a SUTTER and all that means and the value he could add to your team EVEN AS "JUST" a 3rd liner --is going to make a big difference to your overall team?
tHUS --for CERTAIN TEAMS ---(hint: CHICAGO) --- adding this player to their "soft" skilled CORE up front -would immesely fill some needed check boxes ....notice with TOEWS out--teams are killing the Hawks on faceoffs--there is a NEED for another centre who is proficient in that aspect... There is a NEEED for size and physical toughness at centre...there is a need for a guy who can fight without nedding his own protection from some winger who can't do anything but fight...THere is a NEED for a non-lazy intense COMPETITOR ....THERE is a NEED not to get pushed around by the BACKES' of this world... LUKS SUTTER checks a lot of these bixes.. SO the Hawks are 1 team that should care less where he is ranked -care only that he checks theright boxes and care that they do not over -wait such that he is off the board before theuy pick in round two.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE alternative to taking Sutter in round one for the Hawks would be to grab one of the cream of the crop goalies from this draft...
THE mid-year candidates to go in round one were ANDREI VASILEVSKI and MALCOLM SUBBAN with OSCAR DANSK a 3rd possible first roundeer...BUT since then ---after SUBBAN got back from recovering from a groin injury ,Malcolm Subban has NOT been the wall he was before he went out with the groin injury ....At the time of his injury SUBBAN was at a scintillating .938 save% ---since getting back in February --jis save % has plummeted down to .919 now ..Simply put he is not the same as he was in the first half ...HOWEVER--as all GM's learned last draft as BRANDON SAAD plummeted from a high first to 43rd where the Hawks took him --after a poor 2nd half once he got back from his groin injury---one MUST BE CAREFUL --perhaps,like with SAAD,the lingering effects of the groin problem could be still affecting performance --even if everything is physically ok--the mind may be trying to overprotect the groin -so you do not go "all out" as before ....IF this is the case with Subban--maybe he gets his "normal " back only after resting this summer..
ON the other hand OSCAR DANSK has had a better 2nd half than he did in the first in his regular juniors league in Sweden ...HE has been very good all year in internatiional tournament play...Scouts will get a closer lok under pressure of the World U-18 Championships in April and they also will see Vasilevski again under that pressure cooker situation..
SO we'll see where the "consensus" will be after that.
My advice to the Blackhawks willbe " Choose a goalie in round one --but if your scouts prime goalie target is off the board before you pick and if you are not certain the 2nd guy on the goalie target isn't much better than the 3rd or the 4th goalie you have ranked THEN grab Sutter instead in round one and HOPE you can still get at least the #4 goalie in round two.....You can't get everything you want unless luck is with you...
SO a Vasilevski or Dansk pick in round #1 and Lukas Sutter in round #2 would be PERFECT --but probably not going to happen (somebody will graboff Sutter earlier than expected)...
Taking Sutter in round #1 and then HOPING JON GILLIES lasts to the Hawks pick in round #2 is a better probability --but still not certain without some luck that another team won't grab Gillies earlier than his rankings(late 2nd) suggests...
i am not sure if a Sutter-Gillies 1-2 draft punch would not be a better idea that a Vasilevski or Dansk #1 and somebody other than Sutter in round two combo... In that case --Hawks scouts better hit a home run in round two OR get saved only if indeed Vasilevski or Dansk turns into an elite top ten NHL goalie...If they do not and the opportunity cost of not getting Sutter --who fills so many check boxes of NEED and may even be NHL ready because he is defense-first -- will have passed them by to ponder why they chose the way they did...
IT WILLbe a dilemma-- shoot for the consensus moon with goaltending potential "eliteness" --but if that doesn't pan out--give up very likely a chance to fill so many need check boxes with a multidmensional useful role player like LUKAS SUTTER ...
Sure MARK MCNEILL is a big centre with possible higher upside as a 2nd line centre --BUT he has not to this date PROVEN he can shutdown opponents scoring --(Never been good in the +/- stat so far in his WHL career -therefore why believe he will succeed there in the pros? OK he doesn't play on a good team--so we shall have to see if thst is the only reason or not...so IS MCNEILL a tweener ? (Not enough offense for top six,not good enough defense for bottom six -then what is his role where he can achieve the proper help for a team? Answer: WE do not know yet?
BUT with SUTTER we can be certain he can help on that bottom six role ...Maybe starting as 4th line centre and face-off special roles and PK ...THEN as Bolland gets too expensiv to carry as a "small" not physical 3rd line centre -MAYBE they must eventually trade Bolland for a guy checking ff more boxes (BOLLAND is not good at face-offs),can't hit like Sutter.,can't fight like Sutter--so you see where I'm going with this...
Right now the Hawks identity is skilled soft and small down the middle--- TOEWS is a big centre--but skilled and can be abused into softness and playing small by certain PHYSICAL teams--HAWKS must change this identity...MAYBE MCNEILL willbe one slution--maye not--but SUTTER I'm certain willbe one solution--at least for the bottom six ...but because he is great at FACE_OFFS and cetain role needs--they can insert him at times for brief priods with the top six to HELP gainm possessions and to HELP "protect" the skill guys...
As I said--LUKAS SUTTER checks an awful lot of boxes...FORGET where he is ranked --just think of his USES...