C Kirby Dach (2019, 3rd, CHI)

[CapsFan819]

Here are all 8 of Dach's goals in his rookie season... How would you guys say his season went, all things considered?

 

[ColbyChaos]

Here are all 8 of Dach's goals in his rookie season... How would you guys say his season went, all things considered?

Played well and got better as the season went on. Points didn’t match his play and needs to use his body more. He delivered some beautiful checks on guys Rousell notably comes to mind.

 

[canuckking1]

Played well and got better as the season went on. Points didn’t match his play and needs to use his body more. He delivered some beautiful checks on guys Rousell notably comes to mind.

Remember that game. Dude damn near killed Roussel on a clean hit.

 

[Sundin92]

Here are all 8 of Dach's goals in his rookie season... How would you guys say his season went, all things considered?

He had 8 goals that should tell you more than enough. People can go around parading this as a successful season for him and how he's surpassed both Kako and Hughes but to me his season was slightly less disappointing than Kako and Hughes.

 

[BK]

He had 8 goals that should tell you more than enough. People can go around parading this as a successful season for him and how he's surpassed both Kako and Hughes but to me his season was slightly less disappointing than Kako and Hughes.

This is not really accurate at all.

 

[Kevin Musto]

He had 8 goals that should tell you more than enough. People can go around parading this as a successful season for him and how he's surpassed both Kako and Hughes but to me his season was slightly less disappointing than Kako and Hughes.

Maybe the stat sheet looks disappointing from an outsider perspective, but anyone who watched Kirby play every night has been very pleased with his debut season.

 

[Halla]

He had 8 goals that should tell you more than enough. People can go around parading this as a successful season for him and how he's surpassed both Kako and Hughes but to me his season was slightly less disappointing than Kako and Hughes.

this is off. by quite a bit.

Dach wasnt even supposed to make the league and he outperformed both hughes and kaako.

 

[Llamamoto]

90% people come on here and say they had Dach at 2nd or 3rd are absolute liars. Almost no one had Dach in the top 3 yet 80% of the people on here say they had him in the top 3. personally I had Cozens, Byram, Caufield , Zegras , Turcotte ahead of him but in a redraft right now he would go 1st. Terrific pick by the hawks management. As a habs fan I wish KK had his skating the guy seems to always fall and its a shame because he has terrific potential.

I agree that a lot of people are pretending to have liked Dach a lot more predraft, but the Oilers board actually really liked him. I think the majority of us had him 3rd.

 

[Kaners PPGs]

He had 8 goals that should tell you more than enough. People can go around parading this as a successful season for him and how he's surpassed both Kako and Hughes but to me his season was slightly less disappointing than Kako and Hughes.

Clearly you are stat-watching.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

A lot of people are forgetting where Dach was ranked pre-draft. Hughes and Kakko were the clear 1-2, and the majority of lists had Byram and Turcotte as their 3-4. Dach was in the next tier with Cozens, Zegras, and some others.

Considering he was the best 2019 draft pick in the NHL this year, it was definitely not a disappointing season for him.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Considering he was the best 2019 draft pick in the NHL this year, it was definitely not a disappointing season for him.

Can’t they all have had a disappointing season? I don’t know how a scoring forward who averaged less than 30 points per 82 games didn’t have a disappointing season.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Can’t they all have had a disappointing season? I don’t know how a scoring forward who averaged less than 30 points per 82 games didn’t have a disappointing season.

30 point pace while playing good 2-way hockey is not disappointing for a guy who wasn't supposed to be NHL ready.

 

[Llamamoto]

Can’t they all have had a disappointing season? I don’t know how a scoring forward who averaged less than 30 points per 82 games didn’t have a disappointing season.

I see a bit of a similarity between Svechnikov and Dach in their draft years. Dach was on pace for 30 points, Svech 37. They both weren't given a lot of TOI and played with poor linemates, but they had good underlying stats and were good defensively.

I can definitely see Dach breaking out next year ala Svechnikov.

 

[Dr Salt]

30 point pace while playing good 2-way hockey is not disappointing for a guy who wasn't supposed to be NHL ready.

I would say he outdid expectations but he didn't light it on fire. But he wasn't supposed to be NHL ready, he did outdid what he was supposed to do. D+2 is when the heavy impact or lack of it should be judged but for now he's been a pleasant mini-surprise in the NHL, and I see little reason not to be happy with his rookie year.

 

[93LEAFS]

Can’t they all have had a disappointing season? I don’t know how a scoring forward who averaged less than 30 points per 82 games didn’t have a disappointing season.

He was expected to be back in Sask and look at the disparity in usage. I mean, Hughes got double the PP time and Kakko got about 40 seconds more, which adds up to a significant amount of time over 60 something games. Both of those guys were expected to be significantly ahead, so they obviously get measured by different standards. The fact you can make a pretty strong argument he outplayed the 2 guys ahead of him even with how disappointing Kakko and Hughes seasons were, combined with the fact Dach was expected to be in junior, I don't really see how you can make an argument his season was disappointing.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

30 point pace while playing good 2-way hockey is not disappointing for a guy who wasn't supposed to be NHL ready.

Not to nitpick, but just so we get this right, he was on pace for 29 points. It’s close to rounding up to 30, but not quite rounded up. What I said wasn’t incorrect.

And I don’t believe we should change any expectations to paint a picture more favorable towards any specific player. I don’t know how a top three pick forward playing in the NHL shouldn’t be expected to score at least 30 points per 82 games. You’d probably like them to be 35 points per 82, maybe 40 at minimum, and then there are plenty who produce 50, 60, 70 points. You are eventually projecting these guys as top line players. It’s hard to ever be a top line player when your rookie season includes such mediocre production. When they can’t impact the game offensively (and that’s what his offensive production says) in their first season, I don’t know how that’s not disappointing.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I see a bit of a similarity between Svechnikov and Dach in their draft years. Dach was on pace for 30 points, Svech 37. They both weren't given a lot of TOI and played with poor linemates, but they had good underlying stats and were good defensively.

I can definitely see Dach breaking out next year ala Svechnikov.

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but from what I saw, he played PP regularly and was playing in the top 6 after starting the season very low off on the depth chart. It seems odd, but Dach produced points with low minutes, worse line mates and worse situations, while he didn’t produce when his role improved.

I don’t see that as too similar to Svechnikov. Svechnikov played almost the whole season in the same role, and it didn’t change much. This was what the Canes had planned. They kept him on the third line with grinders, if I remember correctly, and that changed very little.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He was expected to be back in Sask and look at the disparity in usage. I mean, Hughes got double the PP time and Kakko got about 40 seconds more, which adds up to a significant amount of time over 60 something games. Both of those guys were expected to be significantly ahead, so they obviously get measured by different standards. The fact you can make a pretty strong argument he outplayed the 2 guys ahead of him even with how disappointing Kakko and Hughes seasons were, combined with the fact Dach was expected to be in junior, I don't really see how you can make an argument his season was disappointing.

I think the problem is that you are trying to compare him to two players who had historically bad rookie seasons for players picked where they were. Being better than that doesn’t make the season good. That’s what I said initially, and I guess it was missed.

I think we should be comparing Dach to the pool of players over the years who’ve been picked where he was and played in similar roles. Because let’s face it, if Dach’s on the wrong path and busts because of it, it won’t matter to the Hawks that Hughes and Kakko are on a worse path. You don’t get anything for being the best of the bad.

And I’m not even saying he’s on a bad path. He probably wasn’t NHL ready and you can point to some areas where he looked better than expected, so development might be the bigger key to focus on than level of play, but grading the season, I don’t believe we should change any expectations for a third overall pick forward.

 

[d rake]

Not to nitpick, but just so we get this right, he was on pace for 29 points. It’s close to rounding up to 30, but not quite rounded up. What I said wasn’t incorrect.

And I don’t believe we should change any expectations to paint a picture more favorable towards any specific player. I don’t know how a top three pick forward playing in the NHL shouldn’t be expected to score at least 30 points per 82 games. You’d probably like them to be 35 points per 82, maybe 40 at minimum, and then there are plenty who produce 50, 60, 70 points. You are eventually projecting these guys as top line players. It’s hard to ever be a top line player when your rookie season includes such mediocre production. When they can’t impact the game offensively (and that’s what his offensive production says) in their first season, I don’t know how that’s not disappointing.

Why compare him to 1st and 2nd overall picks when Dach is a 3rd overall pick? Relative to recent 3rd overall picks I don't think his season was disappointing.

Since 2010, only Kotkaniemi, Draisaitl and Galchenyuk played NHL games as 3rd overall picks in their D+1 seasons. Kotkaniemi had 34 points in 79 games, Draisaitl had 9 points in 37 games, and Galchenyuk had 27 points in 48 games.

 

[Hostile Offer]

I see a bit of a similarity between Svechnikov and Dach in their draft years. Dach was on pace for 30 points, Svech 37. They both weren't given a lot of TOI and played with poor linemates, but they had good underlying stats and were good defensively.

I can definitely see Dach breaking out next year ala Svechnikov.

I don't quite see that. Dach has elite tools, no doubt about that but Svech is and always was a notch above him. I think it'll take a few more years for Dach to reach the level Svech is at right now, but regardless I do believe he'll get there eventually.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think the problem is that you are trying to compare him to two players who had historically bad rookie seasons for players picked where they were. Being better than that doesn’t make the season good. That’s what I said initially, and I guess it was missed.

I think we should be comparing Dach to the pool of players over the years who’ve been picked where he was and played in similar roles. Because let’s face it, if Dach’s on the wrong path and busts because of it, it won’t matter to the Hawks that Hughes and Kakko are on a worse path. You don’t get anything for being the best of the bad.

And I’m not even saying he’s on a bad path. He probably wasn’t NHL ready and you can point to some areas where he looked better than expected, so development might be the bigger key to focus on than level of play, but grading the season, I don’t believe we should change any expectations for a third overall pick forward.

Most 3rd overall forwards are back in junior at this point. The exceptions being Kotkaniemi and Galchenyuk. PLD, D. Strome, Draisaitl (sent back late), Drouin, and Huberdeau all finished the year playing in junior and that is all the 3rd overall forwards from this decade. The only 3rd overall forward to make a big impact in his D+1 in recent memory is Duchene. We will see if this pays off for Chicago or not, it hasn't in Montreal's case. Whereas at 1OA and 2OA we have a ton of examples of guys walking in and being high-end players or at the very least top 6 players. His season was good. He showed an improvement, showed he wasn't overwhelmed and earned more opportunity, and unlike the two ahead of him wasn't just handed an opportunity in the top 6 with top line PP minutes. Even if you look at 4th, 5th and 6th overall forwards from this decade, the list of impactful players in their D+1 is pretty short with it basically being the Tkachuk brothers and Monahan.

Considering Dach was viewed as a 4th to 10th guy mostly at his draft, and he's played competently at the NHL in his given role, and arguably outplayed the other 2 guys taken ahead, I don't know how his season could be labeled disappointing. At worst it has to be average to above-average given the usual return of a 3rd overall pick, and how he's played against his draft peers this year. Maybe he'll take the next steps like Monahan or Barkov, or maybe he'll stagnate like Nolan Patrick or Galchenyuk.

 

[kmwtrucks]

He is also 6-4 taller guys tend to need a year or two with skating coaches to really get up to speed. I think byt the time his ELC is done he will be a top 15 center in the league. He is just solid in every aspect but also has some elite stick skills. Once his size and skill match up and he puts on 10-15 more pounds he will be a beast probably play of PP PK and play against the other teams top line.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Why compare him to 1st and 2nd overall picks when Dach is a 3rd overall pick? Relative to recent 3rd overall picks I don't think his season was disappointing.

Since 2010, only Kotkaniemi, Draisaitl and Galchenyuk played NHL games as 3rd overall picks in their D+1 seasons. Kotkaniemi had 34 points in 79 games, Draisaitl had 9 points in 37 games, and Galchenyuk had 27 points in 48 games.

Who said I'm comparing him to 1st overalls? Thats what others are doing when they refer to Hughes and Kakko. As I've continuously said, their seasons don't matter towards his.

And I think you are helping my point with that list. Most 3rd overalls don't play in the NHL their D+1 season because they usually aren't ready. But if you put them there because you think they are ready, you shouldn't have the attitude that anything they do is a bonus. You should expect from them to be NHL ready, like the team thinks. And from that list, Kotkaniemi and Galchenyuk had successful first seasons statistically, so it's not an unreasonable ask for Dach to be as productive statistically as one bust and another whose now struggling. Draisaitl didn't have a successful season his D+1 year in the NHL, but he was barely playing and was sent back for good reason. Thats different from Dach.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Very skilled, great vision of the ice, powerful skater, great hands.
This kid is impressive. The Blackhawks got very lucky to win that 3rd pick in the lottery.

#1C of the future for Chicago.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Most 3rd overall forwards are back in junior at this point. The exceptions being Kotkaniemi and Galchenyuk. PLD, D. Strome, Draisaitl (sent back late), Drouin, and Huberdeau all finished the year playing in junior and that is all the 3rd overall forwards from this decade. The only 3rd overall forward to make a big impact in his D+1 in recent memory is Duchene. We will see if this pays off for Chicago or not, it hasn't in Montreal's case. Whereas at 1OA and 2OA we have a ton of examples of guys walking in and being high-end players or at the very least top 6 players. His season was good. He showed an improvement, showed he wasn't overwhelmed and earned more opportunity, and unlike the two ahead of him wasn't just handed an opportunity in the top 6 with top line PP minutes. Even if you look at 4th, 5th and 6th overall forwards from this decade, the list of impactful players in their D+1 is pretty short with it basically being the Tkachuk brothers and Monahan.

Considering Dach was viewed as a 4th to 10th guy mostly at his draft, and he's played competently at the NHL in his given role, and arguably outplayed the other 2 guys taken ahead, I don't know how his season could be labeled disappointing. At worst it has to be average to above-average given the usual return of a 3rd overall pick, and how he's played against his draft peers this year. Maybe he'll take the next steps like Monahan or Barkov, or maybe he'll stagnate like Nolan Patrick or Galchenyuk.

I think there's a fine line between believing a player is on a course to develop into a good player, and also to set what realistic expectations are, and hold that player to it.

I think Chicago made a mistake in keeping Dach in Chicago for the whole season. He probably shouldn't have even gotten nine games. These nine game trials are often a bad idea. Either you believe the player is NHL ready for a full season or they aren't. No nine game trial should influence that because being an NHL player for nine games is much different than for a full season. Many talented prospects can play nine games. Most cannot play 82 games, and that's why they are still prospects.

But I think some good points have been made. Dach showed a better two way game and consistency in effort than was his reputation. His non-elite skating, which was probably the only other knock on him, was nowhere near the weakness in the NHL game for him that it was for someone like Kakko. The areas of the game that were question marks were areas Dach did well in addressing this season. If you bought the strengths of his game to the degree that many did and probably caused Chicago to pick him third, you probably come out of this season rationalizing that Dach is on a good path to become a very good player.

At the same time, all of that is separate from whether he had a good season in the NHL. The NHL is not the minor leagues or junior hockey. You are trying to win. You expect all your players to contribute positively towards winning in the roles they play. Assessing their performance should be based off setting what are realistic expectations prior to any games being played, considering likely roles and other factors within the team, and how their eventual play stacks up to the expectations. I think if anyone said to themselves that his production was what they expected, and is production that they would consider a good season at the NHL level, they are lying to themselves. While offensive production isn't the only part of the game that matters, I think there needs to be a minimum bar of production reached to have a good season.

There are not that many players who've played full seasons or even half seasons in the NHL in their D+1 season. And that's for good reason. Most of them aren't NHL ready, so there's no shame if Dach isn't NHL ready this season. But in the past 5 drafts, we've seen 17 players play more than the 9 games, if I'm counting correctly, 14 of which are forwards. 10 of the 14 have averaged over 30 points per 82 games, so its not a very high bar we are talking about. Players such as Patrick and Kotkaniemi, both of which aren't considered elite young players by most at the moment, cleared that bar rather easily. And there have been some guys who were well above that bar, and pretty immediately were elite NHL forwards.

Dach keeps company in that regard with Puljujarvi, Hughes and Kakko. Thats not good company. A guy most consider a bust, and the other two players from the past draft that probably had even weaker seasons. Why has every other forward who played substantial games in their D+1 season that didn't turn into a likely bust produced offense at what is a pretty low bar? And I'm not saying that means Dach is a bust, but its to say its a very low bar. It's not asking much of a guy picked 3OA, even if he wasn't NHL ready. Most still say Kotkaniemi wasn't NHL ready, and he cleared it as a 3OA. Galchenyuk was sent back to junior hockey as a 3OA with much better statistical production as a 3OA.

You can even assess the D+1 defensemen and say that most of these guys did not struggle to put up points. Defensemen aren't as high scoring as forwards, but Dahlin cleared 30 per 82 games easily. Chychrun and Hanifin, two non-elite scoring defensemen, comfortably were over 20 per 82 games, and these aren't players into the 40's for points now. Their current production entering their prime isn't astronomically better than what it was in their D+1 season.

There are always exceptions. Thornton was one, Draisaitl could be looked at as another. None of this is to say Dach will not be a good player, but I don't think we should revise expectations because we like the player. I was a big fan of Dach at the draft, and I'd argue he projects better right now than the two guys that went ahead of him, but they can all have bad seasons. This doesn't need to be an either/or proposition with the three top picks, and we don't need to skirt around pretty low expectations to rationalize and prop up a bad season for a D+1 forward in the NHL.